Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
A Tribute to the Thoughts of Another and his Friend
"Everyone knows where we have been. Let's see where we are going!" -Another
Subscribe to the Speakeasy
$150.00 USD for 6 months
Paypal Account Is NOT Required - Just email me at fofoamail [at] gmail [dot] com if you have any problems
BullionStar.com (Singapore)
BullionStar.co.nz (NZ) BullionStar.com/?r=1025 (Shareable link)
Donate
Email Contact Info:
Blog Archive
If you'd like to read more…
- It all starts here!
- Then here
- Here's more
- And more
- Some highlights
- Linkable ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!)
- Linkable Gold Trail
- Linkable regular forum 1998-2007
- Alternate regular forum archive
- Linkable Kitco forum 1997-1999
- Red Baron's LBMA EXPOSÉ
- AFTER (THOUGHTS!) 1-2 PDF
- AFTER (THOUGHTS!) 3-5 PDF
- My blog in portable PDFs
- Glossary of some acronyms I use
- POG for buyers and pot watchers
Total Pageviews
Evil gold hoarders, jerks, time misallocators and brainwashed cult members:
Disclaimer
The above is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice, nor is it at all intended to be taken as such. The commentary and other contents simply reflect the opinion of the author alone on the current and future status of the markets and various economies. It is subject to error and change without notice. The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered by them.
465 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 401 – 465 of 465opps I meant to say sir E/r
http://www.silverdoctors.com/10-more-tungsten-filled-gold-bars-discovered-in-manhattan/
this article was linked at ZH. It details salting of gold bars (the tungsten story with updates), the crimes of Bill Clinton as seen by AEPritchard, Gibson's Paradox (explained...sort of, and other good stuff. I'm only half way through. I have no idea if it contains a word of truth but I do not like Clinton so at the very least I am enjoying the recharging of my confirmation bias.
Victor,
Excellent synopsis !! Plugs a lot of holes for me. Let us hope that the minds of men do follow the established protocols as the paper burns.
Michael dV,
Yes I always enjoy seeing the Mena story dusted off and given an airing.
I read that Rob Kirby piece for a laugh. He wasted a lot of my time some years ago through his writing by sending me on a wild goose chase. I couldn't find any evidence in that post to support his claim that 10,000 m/t of tungsten filled blanks were produced in Eastern Europe.
Destabilizing an enemy's currency is often a preparatory step for military action. That's about the only rationale I could see for a program like this. The problem is that injecting counterfeit gold into the $IMFS would have risked crashing the whole system and damaging the Soviet Union in the process.
I could also imagine a market for fake bars among banana republic dictators who wanted to loot their country's Treasury. There was a report some years back that Ethiopia discovered that the gold in its Treasury was fake. Apparently there was no way to tell when the switch took place.
This stuff is on par with Jim Willie at his hysterical worst but it's good for a laugh.
Cheers
You might like this version of The Excstasy of Gold, what a masterpiece, great singer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=1-rHdSWZLpQ&feature=endscreen
Funny mentioning of The Ramones in Ennios Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ennio_Morricone
I heard in a lecture that music is good for preventing Alzheimer ;-)
Cheers!
WoW! That would be "truly amazing" if you could get Exter
to come! The inverted liquidity pyramid is so key to Freegold.
Hell, I'd be excited to meet ANYONE whose name filled in the
two letters between E and E R.
And good driving ;-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TshFWSsrn8&feature=watch-vrec
How about somebody whos name begins with F and ends in A. Three letters. That would be a room filler.
Best
I wonder if this will put some pressure on JPM and HSBC ?
http://www.gata.org/node/11965
Do these paper price chasers ever bother to read the fine print? Does the change in prospectus notice ever get sent, and if so does it ever get read ??
Worth watching?
"The force majeure will remain in effect until further notice from the exchange, the CME said."
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/cme-declares-force-majeure-at-manhattan-gold-depository-20121126-00921#.ULTPjIfAd8H
Yes, first it was trillions in wet paper at DTCC (beware of any paper clearing house with the word TRUST in its name).
And now, soggy pallet trucks??
My A$$
I read somewhere that the majority of Indian Gold ETF buyers were Indian corporates. Guess they are trying to hedge any currency risk ?
Worth keeping in mind when discussions turn to the question of how much gold China has accumulated (my emphasis):
While central banks must report their gold reserves to the IMF, the sovereign wealth funds of these countries are under no such obligation and, as sovereign wealth funds occasionally operate in effective if unofficial collaboration with their respective central banks, it is highly likely in my opinion that there is much more official gold accumulation taking place than is officially reported.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/john-butler/curse-reserve-currency-triffin-dilemma
For the Folks looking to book Rooms in Las Vegas, I find this link useful. This has links only to the Harrah's group.
I even see Ceaser's Palace rates for $100/night.
I have stayed there and the view to the Bellagio Water Fountains are beautiful.
Also the Breakfast at "Serendipity" at Ceaser's Palace is the best, this comment coming from the most picky eater in the world.
http://www.totalrewards.com/hot-deals/index.html?LOOCS=IUJAR&rd=totalhotdeals
Alasdair Macleod writes here about changes to the GLD prospectus:
http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1354026445.php
Investor protection afforded for safe custody assets is at least in part being substituted by a dealing and settlement code of practice backed by LBMA-recommended client agreements that applies to an unregulated market.
Admittedly AM works for/with GoldMoney but he seems to be an astute and honest analyst in my opinion. My interpretation of this change is that no one holding GLD "shares" should count on getting their basket filled in a crisis.
If you read Macleod's article, he is worried that JPM and HSBC might use the GLD/SLV inventory in order to back their COMEX short futures position. ROFL. I will never understand where they got their COMEX psychosis from. COMEX is a side show. It's pocket change compared with the interbank market.
In my opinion, the major risk with the ETFs (I mean *all* ETFs, in particular the Sprott funds which are HMSs' favourites) is not that the trustee or the custodian commits outright fraud, but rather the following.
In a proper currency crisis, there will be capital controls, interruptions in FOREX trading, stock, options and futures markets closed for a few days, and perhaps even the London fixing dropped for a few days.
In such a situation, wouldn't the ETFs have a very good excuse to close down? Now take a look at the prospectuses: this possibility exists, even at the Sprott funds. How would the ETFs close down? They would pay their investors cash and sell their gold OTC.
Even if you have a full basked of GLD, as long as NYSE Arca or LBMA is closed, it seems that you cannot redeem (we just saw this during the storm). This means you are a sitting duck, and the trustee can remain relaxed, have their lawyers work some extra hours, and coolly wind down the ETF.
Now think about the interests and the incentives.
Victor
VtC,
You wrote:
If you read Macleod's article, he is worried that JPM and HSBC might use the GLD/SLV inventory in order to back their COMEX short futures position. ROFL.
Nonsense. He was very careful in the way he worded that part of the article (my emphasis).
The two custodians of these ETFs are also active in the futures markets in the United States (Comex) and it is common knowledge they are running large short positions in those markets. The perceived conflicts of interest have led to widespread public allegations that the assets of these ETFs are being used to satisfy market deliveries in bullion markets that are acutely short of physical, allegations that have not been refuted by the sponsors, trustee, or custodians.
Furthermore, the wording in the prospectuses and the related trustee and custody agreements appears to be somewhat loose without the support of regulatory protection.
I appreciate that it may be difficult for the sponsors to respond to these allegations, which of course is taken as evidence in the markets that they are true. The result is that a false market is being created in both paper and physical markets, either by allegations that are untrue and are not being refuted or by the misappropriation of physical assets not properly under the control of the custodians and without the knowledge of shareholders.
Accordingly, if the FSA does have regulatory exposure to either of the custodians or the trustee, it should be aware of these risks.
In regard to the "COMEX psychosis" bear in mind that Macleod is with GoldMoney so I tend to overlook his digs at alternative paper gold investments. And his framing of the issue above was quite balanced compared to some of the crap coming out of the goldbug and silverbug camps. I stand by what I said about Macleod's analysis. He's been putting out some good work.
Your scenario is plausible as an end game. This change in the prospectus does appear to remove regulatory oversight and whatever protection that might afford. So it probably strengthen's the case for your end game.
Victor, are you coming to vegas?
:D
Anthilly trivia for the day. Did you know that schoolchildren in Germnay, Austria (and other teutonic countries) visit gold selling bank branches and are given lectures there about the importance and howtos about saving in metal?
The trade stats in this article speak for themselves. Decoupling Asia from the fortunes of most of the developed country economies appears to be progressing. A few snippets below.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/NK27Dj02.html
..the November 20 announcement at a summit meeting in Phnom Penh that 15 Asian nations, comprising half the world's population, would form a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership excluding the United States.
To put these matters in context: the exports of Asian countries have risen more than 20% from their peak before the 2008 economic crisis, while Europe's exports have fallen by more than 20%. American exports have risen marginally (by about 4%) from their pre-2008 peak.
China's exports to Asia, meanwhile, have jumped 50% since their pre-crisis peak, while exports to the United States have risen by about 15%. At US$90 billion, Chinese exports to Asia are three times the country's exports to the United States.
Costata, so China has found and now is even actively nurturing (from umpire position) the replacement output market for its exports? I've found it funny how Mr. U.S. president was trying to weasel in at that summit or such, can't recall the exact details it was on the news few days back. That combined with ZH/Fred graphs of collapse in capital goods new orders screams: "Hi, I'm HI nice to meet you too.."
@ Costata
Thanks for your input over at Bron's site.
Teutonic classical/Goth band Lacrimosa with the song "Fassade - 1. Satz"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9ciFelRS_E
alpha-or-beta, there's a saying here "nu chind und narre säget d'wahret", only child and fools tell the Truth ;-)
Las Vegas, maybe I'll speak with certain friends to make it possible...everything's a bit tense here, but I'm fine.
55000 Thanks for everything,
KG
We need to think more deeply about currency.
Do we?
@VTC,
Regarding gold ETFs and the incentive to fold the fund in favor of selling the gold OTC, I too see this as a very real possibility. If you can trace a potential path to profitability, you can then rest assured the path will be taken IMO.
The pilots I work with at my airline have an inordinate amount of money allocated each month to a 401K and Direct Contribution retirement fund, currently 15% of total compensation. This contribution is mandatory per our contract. I often get asked about what gold bullion exposure can be attained through the brokerage account used for these retirement funds. Specifically, many ask about Sprott's closed ended bullion funds, PHYS and PSLV. People are naturally gravitating toward these funds away from GLD and mining stocks. The argument against GLD is pretty clear and intuitive, not so much for PHYS and PSLV.
The key to Sprott and his funds is that he retains complete control of the Funds and reserves the right to close the Funds at any time for any reason. Sprott is a billionaire and did not achieve his lofty position by leaving money on the table. In a situation that you outline, he would have a tremendous incentive to move on the gold and cash out shareholders.
I offer an alternative that possibly solves the problem. The Central Gold Trust (GTU) has a similar setup as Sprott's Funds, with a couple of important differences. First, there is no path available to swap shares for gold bullion in the fund. Sprott offers the ability to swap shares for gold in the fund provided a 30 day notice is given and enough shares are being swapped to equal one good for delivery bar. Additionally, the fund is administered by a board comprised of shareholder elected members and theoretically responds to shareholder direction. This would make it more difficult to move on the gold.
I tell anyone that is interested in paper gold that it has risks that cannot be hedged. Shares in any fund are subject to counter-party risk involving the management of the fund, the government, and the market itself. Liquidity can be interrupted by a suspension of the market or by rules arbitrarily put in place by government to impede access.
Nobody should voluntarily invest in any of these funds, including GTU. All gold investment should be in the form of bullion that you can actually possess.
I would guess that there are not many people that have my particular problem where 15% of their money is removed from their paycheck and forced into a retirement fund brokerage account. My only recourse is to try to educate my fellow union members so that we can contractually terminate this retirement funding (so far I am failing miserably, most pilots want more tax deferred compensation not less) or to roll the dice and trade into paper that can maintain as much value as possible.
I have a lot of money in GTU. I have made peace with myself regarding this money and I assume I will never see that money converted into wealth. I suppose I could allocate into stocks that will survive the transition to RPG, but I am not convinced that I possess the tools to recognize them.
I have a significant position in physical gold that I possess and am willing to gamble with my trapped money in the form of a bet on GTU. If GTU survives, and the government doesn't enact laws to take, dilute, or otherwise impede my access to my shares, I will win the bet. If not, then I still win with my physical gold.
@Wendy,
I would love to do Vegas and as an airline pilot I can obviously get there pretty easy (free!!) However, my problem is always scheduling. I need to bid for the day off a month in advance. So nothing is guaranteed. With that said I'm in and will do whatever I can do to be there.
Hello Matrix;
You know Gold Bullion International is IRA compatible, yes?
They might be a preferred alternative to GTU, if your plan
allows. Just a thought. (they are range free, no hormones,
and recommended by a celebrity yeti, too) Greetz
VtC,
Read your Central Bank Gold Leasing article, it is fantastic! Thanks for doing that, it is so good to be able to escape the hysteria of the "gold is gone!" crowd with some actual hard analysis and information. I loved the way you tied it with Another and FOA's discussions.
Re: Vegas and the "underwhelming" response so far.
While there is certainly a lot of appeal to the "gathering of the clan" aspects of the thing for long-term followers and other afficianados, without at least a couple of scheduled speakers whose topics are announced beforehand, it is not really an official seminar-style event, more like a big family picnic. Nothing wrong with that, of course, I'm sure it will be good fun and, like Davos, Things Will Be Discussed and Plans Made during cocktails, I'm just saying that you might attract a wider response if you had at least a copule of scheduled presentations, so that people had hopes of being further educated. And - ahem! - could explain to their spouse or SO that they were going to Vegas to learn something pertaining to their family's financial future and not just hang out on an ad hoc basis with a bunch of wild and crazy freegolders.
At a minimum, you would have to announce it or pre-test it in an official post, because not everyone follows the discussion through the comments, and you have to follow the comments pretty closely to have even noticed that Wendy proposed the idea. Of course, mayby only such people are likely to want to come in the first instance, but still, it's hardly a valid test of the market for the gathering of the clan.
Freegold Octobox?
So... whats up with the flash crash thing again then?
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5
Commodities Sold on OECD 'Fiscal Cliff' Warning
24 tons, anyone?
Gold saw a massive 24 tonne sell order (7,800 contracts) at 08:20 a.m. New York time
Yesterday, COMEX declares "Force Majeur" and today we get a 24 ton gold sell order.
Interesting...
Just saw (on Arte, a french/German TV station) the 3. and 4. part of "The fabric of the Cosmos" with Brian Greene, really great series about quantum- and multiverse theory.
Its just whole about, well, the bigger truth; Alan Guth is also speaking. They have wonderful images, graphs and animations, noticed the nice red and blue colors which appear to be quite in fashion these days. I wish it a broad distribution...
Maybe I'll use teleportation to Vegas ;-)
Yes.
Happy Christmas, one and all!
Knall: -
GOLD sits very comfortably at the "Bigger-Truth" Paradigm Table my friend - in fact there appears to be Metaphysical aspects to Physical Gold which "may well have" been overlooked for nigh on 5000 Yr's.
Yes Peter ...and All - Merry Xmas ;-)
It makes me wonder a little bit about the people here who are enthusiastic about Las Vegas. If you took all that is shallow and crass about modern American culture and distilled it, the crud in the bottom of the flask would be Las Vegas.
Why not choose someplace beautiful like San Francisco or someplace with historic and rich traditional cultural attractions? Why choose the skankiest, phoniest culture shit-hole in the country?
It seems inconsistent to me that some of the opinion leaders on this sight are excited about a place which is all about gambling, about fleecing the stupid. Aren't we supposedly a little smarter than that? Does a fancy fountain at Caesar's Palace and some gold leaf on some fake statues really blow such a breeze up your knickers? Sheesh.
DP,
Yes. Four quarters trade/exchange for one dollar for one reason - a market maker maintains that exchange rate. Absent that market maker we would have a floating exchange rate. How is the exchange rate between a physical dollar and a digital dollar maintained at 1:1?
http://www.samsung.com/ca/itproducts/images/solutions_ctrl-p.gif
IMHO the "appropriateness" of Las Vegas hinges on the fact
that, like gold, it constitute a "Schelling Point", particularly
with respect to ease of access, flight availability, and abundance
of reasonable accommodation. I might prefer the Villa D'Este,
but that ain't happening.
@MnMark
If you took all that is shallow and crass about modern American culture and distilled it, the crud in the bottom of the flask would be Las Vegas.
True.
It seems inconsistent to me that some of the opinion leaders on this sight are excited about a place which is all about gambling, about fleecing the stupid.
You forgot to mention the hookers!
Aren't we supposedly a little smarter than that?
Nope! We are evil hoarders, jerks and and brainwashed cultists (see the footer). Even worse, I hear some of us are lawyers and ex-cons. I am also quite certain that much of the FOFOA readership enjoys alcohol, pornography, gambling, and fornication. It is indeed a den of of immorality and debauchery.
There, that should be plenty of fodder for the regular skeptics here. Now they can easily dismiss all the arguments presented on an ad hominem basis while giving only cursory consideration to the merits.
Jim
Haha!
I would add, but I think you pretty much covered the bases there.
I will obviously not be able to attend that vile den, sadly.
TF
I brought you another delicious bass
The common use of fiat currency is and was a natural evolution into using "money", in it's pure associated value form, as a medium for the trade of goods; far removed from using gold in a "real good barter" context as a "tender in the (final) payment (settlement) of trade (debt).
American money law may have been desecrated over and over again; however, nothing in our original thinking precludes us from designating "the money concept" as a "legal tender" in trade along side gold or silver as a "tender" in trade.
In reworking the definition of "note" as it appears on our currency, perhaps it is the money our system never had time to allow it to become. In another time and another place, fiat will be know as:
-a written promise to trade at a determinable value a variable sum of other goods to the bearer--
The difference between use function and value function, of our money, was most surely convoluted for political gain and banking credit interest. Truly, American history has shown we did a terrible job of rendering this ages old gold barter function useless in a modern world. Mostly because of our complete lack of money vs. barter understanding. Today, we enter the "end time" thrashing of such a currency experiment.
@MnMark... so I'm still not sure, are you coming to Vegas or not?
;-P
@Poopyjim
Speak for yourself mate. I m totally not into gambling.
Regards
Ozzy
mr pinnion,
Right there with you mate!
I'm also more of a alcohol and fornication guy...
Colorado county considers banning panning for gold after 'uptick' in prospecting
Prospectors during widespread Gold Rushes in the 1800s are credited with settling land and developing commerce in several Western states, including Colorado.
However 200 years later, officials in one Colorado county say amateur prospectors panning for gold on county land have become such a nuisance they are considering banning the practice.
[...]
"There's certainly an uptick," Dan Rieves, visitor services manager for Larimer County, told 9News. "There's rangers that we've had out in the field who have been working here for 10, 15 years that have contacted more people out prospecting in the past 18 months than they have in their entire career."
The vote would lead "minerals" to be added to a list of things that already can't be removed from county land. Officials say the county is not anti-prospecting, and may consider setting up specific prospecting zones or times in the future if the ban is passed.
@poopyjim: all very cute snark. And childish. Like your nick. If you are under 30, I guess that's about par for modern American young men. If you're over 30, well...no comment.
@Woland: there are plenty of cheap flights to Disney World too. I suppose that's where the gang will want to meet next year. I don't really think the availability of hotel rooms is a big consideration though, is it? Do you think more than a couple dozen people are going to this shindig? Couldn't any city in America accomodate that?
It doesn't really matter and I probably should keep my mouth shut since I have no plans to go and it's no skin off my teeth what other people here like doing. I think what bothers me a little is that I have been picturing the regular commenters here mostly as a group of smart older men (like I imagine Another and FOA to be)...people with maturity and intelligence and good sense. Not the kind of people remotely interested in Las Vegas, "partying" and gambling. Next thing I suppose people will be talking about how many Powerball tickets they bought.
Mn Mark
well said....
Wendy,
re Las Vegas, I am afraid I will not be able to make it. Although I'd love to meet people in person, my schedule for January is already packed.
Victor
Interesting today - Gold miners closed positive, even though Gold closed lower. never seen this before.
KWN guests will be peeing their pants about "the stocks are finally leading - back up the truck, gold is about to take off!!!"
@MnMark
all very cute snark. And childish. Like your nick. If you are under 30, I guess that's about par for modern American young men. If you're over 30, well...no comment.
I'm crushed, really.
I think what bothers me a little is that I have been picturing the regular commenters here mostly as a group of smart older men (like I imagine Another and FOA to be)...people with maturity and intelligence and good sense. Not the kind of people remotely interested in Las Vegas, "partying" and gambling.
And this bothers you... why?
Sorry Karl, but you're money honey
interviewed the wrong guy.
that should've read...your money honey...
Hey MnMark,
Harden the fuck up!
costata,
Currency denominations keep parity because of arbitrage, in large volumes.
Just say NO to sex, drugs, and rockin roll!
matrixsentry: I have no comment about the language. I have no comment towards MnMark. However the tiny particles of potato chips that are now embedded in my keyboard from the involuntary laughing spit-take the video induced will annoy me until I get a hand vac.
Sorry to hear you're not coming Victor, perhaps 2014.
Matrix it would be awesome to meet you, hope you can make it, you too KG.
Matrix on the issue of going to gold with retirement plans, I'm afraid I won't be any help with specifics, but I do recall reading something several years ago.
It went something like if one established an LLC type company, then they could transfer the whole of the retirement fund to the company and basically do whatever they wanted with it. ie buy physical gold. I didn't pay close attention because I cash out my RRSPs (like 401K) annually, and pay the taxes now, while I'm a net producer. Also the company I work for has a direct benefit retirement plan, but if we buy RRSPs they contribute an additional 20%. So I take their money and run ;)
Perhaps with the little information I have offered can find more.
MnMark
Did you miss RJP 's debrief?
(no offence Mr. P!)
Like Mn, I think we should elevate the tone of any Freegold meet-up. I suggest we look at it as less of a online-community, more of an exclusive gentleman’s club.
I think mature, intelligent men aged 45-60 should form the core of the group. Bald heads are preferable. Beards, I feel, should be optional (provided they are tidy and well maintained).
Sadly, I don’t meet the selection criteria, so must respectfully decline the invitation.
Lord Sidcup,
You overlooked ascots and little bone china teacups.
None taken Jesse McL!?
Ozzy
"Wendy said...
I think it's time to assemble the first annual freegold conference
I'm proposing the last weekend in January in vegas!!"
Hey, that sounds like a great idea! I might be able to make it.
Post a Comment
Comments are set on moderate, so they may or may not get through.