From FOFCON2013 in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada, welcome to the FOFCON Open Forum.
Above, you can see that Poopyjim, being the good stooge that he is, checked in on the World's Largest Ball of Twine during his roadtrip to FOFCON. It is, indeed, still there just waiting to be thrown.
It was a small and intimate gathering on purpose this time, so I'm sorry to anyone who feels left out. Maybe we can have a bigger meeting next time!
I'm sitting here with the group right now, so let's see if they have anything they want to say...
Aquilus says: RJ, you don't have a hair on your dixie ass if you don't come next time.
FoNoah says: I can't think under pressure.
Lisa says: This feels like Christmas.
Lisa's hubby says: Are we gonna do this next year?
Matrix Sentry says: Can I have another piece of cake.
Michael dV says: Gotta run, gettin up early to take the group shooting.
Poopyjim says: We freegolders are rollin' deep. We're takin' over this town.
Wendy says: Is there any more wine?
Woland says: If the transition happens this year this will be done in Monte Carlo next time.
Mrs. FOFOA says: What a lovely weekend.
_____________________
Here are a few pictures from the extracurricular activities at FOFCON.
From the Hoover Dam, here's FoNoah, Poopyjim, Wendy and FOFOA (picture taken by Aquilus):
Another picture of the same group:
Aquilus showing his pictures to Wendy and FoNoah with Jim hanging back:
FoNoah and Aquilus:
Wendy gets a close look at Mike's big gun:
Wendy takes Mike's full auto sound suppressed MP5 for a test drive:
Poopyjim mows down the dreaded Happy Face:
222 comments:
1 – 200 of 222 Newer› Newest»http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/01/26/the-why-of-gold-at-and-above-3500/
he has come a long way.from a fierce hater of the euro..now writing this
poopy, my goodness, how many times to you have to walk that thing each day;)
do
Hope you guys come over to Europe someday (Montecarlo? are you gonna gamble your hard earned revalued Au? ;0), naaa, better in Paris).
FOFOA I have a sovereign here waiting for you (after reval, what, 6-12k$?, that will pay for the whole trip in biz class...).
It sounds like you all are having fun. Don't miss breakfast at The Bellagio.
In the meantime, I'm having something of a back and forth with Bruce Krasting who thinks The Fed is on the verge of terminating QE. I've made the point that, given that certain key buyers of U.S. debt have (permanently) withdrawn their support, the Fed can not discontinue QE.
Bruce has responded with, the U.S. public will take up the slack when rates rise a few percentage points. My response, which I've yet to make, is that a rise of a few percentage points will create massive pressure in the form of interest payments. Also, given the fragile nature of R.E. I think a rise in rates of just a few percentage points will take the wind out of the seemingly stabilized-at least in some parts of the U.S.- R.E. market. Finally, can/will the U.S. public take up the slack, even temporarily, and what is the likelihood that the rise in rates will be contained to a few percentage points?
By all means weigh in if you think I've missed any key points.
Edwardo,
You might ask Bruce what happens to the Treasury bubble if rates rise.
FOFOA: Bubble #2: Perceived Wealth, denominated in purely symbolic, un backed, unsustainable-Ponzi-debt-based currency (with a nominal value in the HUNDREDS of trillions)...
It is the 28-year hyperinflation of the US$-denominated debt asset bubble that is about to pop...
But the thing about THIS bubble's rise that is so different from any rise in gold is that the price of past issued debt has a natural upper limit. And the "lowering of interest rates scheme" has a physical floor, an inevitable and unavoidable dead end... call it ZERO.
Yes, we have seen a couple ventures into negative interest rate territory lately. But this is simply anathema to the very concept of money, period. It is the ultimate froth, the last breath of air you can blow in before a bubble pops. It is the sure signal that the end is nigh.
When interest rates hit ZERO, they only have one way to go. And that means that the value of past issued debt, the very kind of TRASH that China is sitting on a land-fill mountain of, only has one way to go... DOWN. This is the very definition of a bubble that is about to pop.
Thanks to FOFOA and Mrs. FOFOA for hosting FOFCON 2013! Friendships were engraved in stone and my life is more wealthy for it. Such a pleasure to meet old friends for the first time. Safe travels all of you brainwashed cult members, back to the world of the real. Vegas is so surreal!
Flore,
Truly amazing to watch the ongoing transformation of Jim Sinclair. Now if we can only get him to link to FOFOA. His latest would have been a great opportunity to do jut that when he spoke of mark to market gold held as a reserve asset in support of the euro. I know his readers are hungry to find a way to inoculate against the toxicity of the USD and would see how easy it would be to bolster their own balance sheets in the same way the euro is bolstered.
Cheers!
We're sorry we missed it. Soon, though!
Jealous. Appalachian snow.
Sounds like you folks had fun. You should be glad I didn't come. I've had the flu all week. You'd have wished you never met me if I went to LV and spread these germs. Full blown AIDS is preferable to how I've felt the last few days.
Aquilus,
I actually wouldn't mind a few less hairs on my ass.
#Dingleberries=Nuisance
Wendy,
How were the shopping malls in Vegas?
Perhaps FOFOA can write an open letter to Sinclair ? That should get them connected..but I am not sure if FOFOA really want that..Its up to him..
RJP,
My wife says waxing works wonders for your hygienic affliction.
That's what keeps me coming back to this site... wealth preservation and woof eradication all in one discussion.
Priceless.
Cheers
Wow, I'll have to see if I can make it next time! Are we reaching critical mass?
Jeff said,
"You might ask Bruce what happens to the Treasury bubble if rates rise."
Great idea. I'll trot that one out later. In the meantime he has chosen not to respond to my last comment in which I pointed out that:
"...it will only to take a few percent rise, the same rise you think will attract the necessary buying from the public, to put immense pressure on the government in the form of interest payments."
"It was a small and intimate gathering on purpose this time, so I'm sorry to anyone who feels left out. Maybe we can have a bigger meeting next time."
That would be nice, but I'll take my FOFOA fixes any way I can get them.
Jim Sinclair is happy to trot out Freegold theory, but he ain't gonna link to a site (this one) which considers holding gold miners as the height of folly.
Either he doesn't want the barage of questions that will surely follow, or the fact that he is very publicly all in on his own mine has erected a mental wall around any possibility of such talk or consideration of arguments that would expose his error.
He's gone too far to turn back.
He could be a major tragedy in the making.
RJP
The malls are great here, but I don't think I'll make it to one this trip. But I still managed to buy 4 pairs of shoes, and lots of cloths yesterday. I'm just heading out to shop today ;)
We went out shooting guns this morning .... it was a blast :D Thank you Michaeldv
Off to the hoover dam this afternoon with FOFOA
"We went out shooting guns this morning .... it was a blast :D Thank you Michaeldv"
More details on that plz :)
We went out to my local private range and introduced our Canadian friend to Liberty. Then we shot full auto suppressed MP5 and several hand gun and rifle rounds. Full 'flava' of Vegas' stuff. About 10 pistols and the always popular AR15. No time for the AK47 (civilian version)but there is always next year.
I hope you all had a pleasant trip to Vegas!
Re Sinclair, he isn't necessarily quite that stupid. As I understand it, his company is not the usual type of mining company, but rather a so-called royalty company, i.e. he provides (other) start-up mining companies with capital in exchange for the rights to their production (at a fixed price). If he has set up his business right, he will own a lot of inventory when the day X comes - perhaps more than he could have purchased with his own money. He may very well come fine with his business.
Victor
VtC
That sounds like he has a contract to hopefully own gold in the future, as long as the various governments keep the rules the same.
I'd rather have the $32 million he talks about in physical thanks....
Hi RJP,
I am new to contributing(?) to the blog so please tell me if I am out of line. I was thinking you could kind of kill two birds with one stone! You could have a head of hair like "The Donald!" Tennessee isn't that far is it?
http://voices.yahoo.com/donald-trump-quits-2012-race-rumors-butt-head-8487295.html
A BIG thanks to all of you for inviting me, an uninitiated fan, to your marvelous convention! Your vibes of warmth and intelligence were unlike any other party or university seminar I've ever attended. Absolutely unforgetable! The creaky wheels in my brain have been activated. I am remembering all the many times in history when the fractional reserve system of banking has created too many loans, based on meager bank assets (i.e. the decade prior to the Great depression). In all cases, these episodes eventually resulted in price crashes, and in most cases depositors were stripped of their assets. I assume that your thesis is as follows: There has been issued too much paper gold (GLD, options, IOUs of various types), with far too little physical gold to back these paper promises. This pyramiding of un-backed promises cannot go on forever; it is analogous to the times when fractional banking reserves have been minute. When it's realized that the paper promises are worthless, a huge sell-off will occur. Physical-gold-holders will be scared to death because the published price of gold will be ridiculously low (reflecting the price of the near-worthless paper promises). In reality, the physical gold in private posession will NOT be worthless, but will retain its value, maybe even more than before because there is demand for a reliable form of storing wealth. Is this the essence of the FOFOA calculation? I'd love your feedback! Joanne
KP Sandlapper,
You're never out of line when it comes to humor. Nothing is off limits by my standards (which are pretty low, BTW). Some of my favorite jokes are about me.
And thanks for that link. I'll recommend that type of transplant to some of my customers. It'd probably be more effective for hair growth than the chicken manure scalp treatments I've been giving them ;)
Great to hear you all had a good time in LV, wish we could've made it. I've always wanted to shoot an AR15, AK47... very cool of you to offer them up, Doc.
Oddly, I'm listening to Bang! Self-titled LP as I've scrolled through this post and comments:) Great album! Made my day when I found it for $1 at a pawn shop yesterday, along with Motorhead's 1st and a few others.
Have you read a book or two, or have books been reading you?
RJP,
What the hell is a sandlapper? (JK)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbVkkvxHA_g
I wish I could have gone to LV, have never visited it:-).
About the US confiscating Gold.
I don't think it will be possible, unless they want to stop all international trade.
Nobody will accept their IOUs, after gold confiscation. And you cannot trade with worthless IOUs. It will have to deposit the Gold with BIS for any trade, and they can do it only if they have returned the foreign gold. So they will become a completely closed country. Unfortunately for them they don't produce much these days. They will have to build that capacity again. I don't think Canada or Mexico will give support to them in this case. That will be like preferring the US over the rest of the world. All foreigners will start leaving the country, and much of the current innovation happens through them. They mostly sell services, which will get stopped completely. All their international companies will move out. It will be a suicide. They will go back to the middle ages. The gold will be useless.
I don't see how James Rickards thinks this is a possible option for the US. The world doesn't really need that particular gold. The one that is left with the rest of the world is enough. Because the stock to flow will still be very high, without those 20KT.
Sounds like everyone is having a great time. I hope everyone stays safe and sound.
my comment was there, and then it disapeared??
test!!
Anand
agree Rickards is nuts if he thinks the USA can steal the ROW gold.
forgive me for thinking 'sandlapper' had anything to do with hair of the nether regions.
anand, when the US tells Canada to kiss their ass, we ask if we can lick their boots after kissing is complete ;)
That's changing a bit, but I don't expect it will very much. We cannot defend our border if push came to shove.
To those expecting disengagement,
Lease rates have spiked down on Kitco:
http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html
with no impact as yet on the published GOFO
http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&show=2013
Previous periods of instability have begun in this way. No doubt you all have these sites bookmarked, but nobody had mentioned this yet.
PS on lease rates,
NB it is obviously possible that Kitco have just used a fat finger LIBOR in their calculation, in which case it is of no significance at all. Those with better data feeds may be able to confirm. This even appears more likely, but the other possibility is that something has indeed happened and GOFO has not updated yet.
"The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation. "
Vladimir Lenin
Good luck at Vegas, Guys!
The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.
Vladimir Lenin
Wendy:
It will change very fast, if US tried to go alone. Yes Canada cannot defend their borders from the current US. But when HI hits, the army will have its hands full keeping the local environment stable. Let alone try to fight in a foreign country. And they will have all the gold what are they going to steal from Canada. Ice :-).
Michael dV
I think you have us mixed up. You must be thinking of the laplanders.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laplander
TOTP,
It doesn't look like there is anything here to see presently.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
St Louis Fed monetary base numbers have been updated. We have a new high, up $90B over two weeks.
Edwardo,
Krasting made an interesting case that Bernanke pushed QE forward from when it was strictly necessary, so that he would be able to 'normalize' the monetary policy before he steps down:
http://brucekrasting.com/bernankes-legacy-problem/
In that context, I could see the Fed pausing QE while the transition from one chairman to the next happens. Perhaps the 'QE' portion could be paused while continuing the 'unsterilized-twist-QE' portion.
Whatever happens, I would expect that the new chairman would resume the asset purchases soon after taking over.
As for rising interest rates, Karl Denninger likes to point out that interest rates tend to rise during QE. This has been true of the latest round as well. So a pause in QE might actually have the effect of lowering interest rates.
Also, the ten-year rate has been bounded to the upside roughly by the 200-week moving average, which now sits at 2.73% (the ten year is now at 2%). So there is a bit of room to the upside in rates before the long-term downtrend is threatened.
Edwardo,
No indeed. Although Fekete (is it safe to mention his name? for one believes that the LBMA published GOFO and possibly its inputs have been managed since the big late 2008 tell.
NB: the Kitco 6 month lease rate has dropped below the 1 and 3 month rates, while all have dropped. So if someone has entered the wrong LIBOR into the Kitco system, they must have accidentally entered several different, wrong LIBORs. Which I would submit is less probable.
Thanks for your thoughts, Michael H.
Well, TOTP, I think, given what we know about the manipulation of LIBOR, that it's reasonable to preface every reference to official statistics with something like the ever popular warning, FWIW. And, of course, you can mention Fekete, I would just advise one not to do so too enthusiastically.
Edwardo,
FWIW, Kitco bounces back today and all rises/falls shown are zero minus n.
It appears that Libor was indeed accidentally set to zero yesterday for everything, and the apparently different variations were due to the different Libors before and after.
As for Antal, he first alerted me to the stress between paper and physical gold in 2007, reawakening my interest in the metal at a very convenient time. For that I will forgive him many a foible yet.
Re: Rickards gold confiscation, I don't think he is stupid, I think he knows it can't happen without the US becoming a world pariah and killing the US's ability to engage in intenational trade. I believe Rickards is an agent provocateur. He says these things to stir up trouble and create and provide popular and political support for contries like German to demand that their gold be returned. He is helping to pave the the way for some new system that his insiders want to implement after this one blows. I'm not sure what he thinks this new system is -- freegold, or some other system in which there is a gold peg which is periodically adjusted, as he describes in his book. But he certainly knows better.
FOFCON ... nice ring to it. Closest I've been to L.V. was Scottsdale Az, and it's quite a blast. Cowboys packing loaded sixguns will walk right into the 7 Eleven, it's OK to pack their wide open. And an SUV full of people can get as loaded on cooler booze as you want as long as the driver has a special license to carry you and abstains. Open containers? All day long, no worries.
I saw this teaser in a ZH article this morning. I quote the bold face line here:
"If everyone is doing super QE, which currency will depreciate?”
Seriously ?? They ALL will.
Safe trips back home I hope ...
Cheers!
At this point in time, buying Gold or silver is not that risky, but neither are those 2 items really a productive investment either. For more, see:
Can Bernanke Print Gold?
http://azizonomics.com/2011/09/10/can-bernanke-print-gold/
Yes.
Andrei Canciu
Sep 10, 2011 @ 17:57:22
Another thing I wanted to mention that is seldom addressed: gold does not rise only when inflation rises or when fears of increased inflation arise. It also rises dramatically during deflationary (deflationary in paper currencies I mean) environments. It’s a general hedge against monetary problems no matter which direction they might take. The latest explanation I’ve read for gold rising in a (say) USD-deflationary environment is that there are not enough traditional “good” assets to invest in and hence, a good portion of the money will flow towards gold.
The market pushes gold (along with everything else) higher during "inflation". The Central Banks push against this, in order to prop up the exchange value of their currencies. This is why other things (incl. silver) can and do outperform gold on the way up - they do not encounter this direct CB resistance to their rise relative to the currencies.
The Central Banks support gold (hoping to influence the prices of everything else in the process) during "deflation". This is why gold doesn't fall as much on the way down.
Deflationary collapse is what the doctor has been ordering and on a gold standard is what would already have happened by now. But we are not on a gold standard and we never again will be. You, however, are able to put your own asset reserves on a gold standard, if you are intelligent enough to work out where we are going.
If only everyone were as intelligent as you Peter, imagine what a great world it would be.
Yes.
Or you!
What a wonderful world it would be!
http://www.blacklistednews.com/House_Of_Rothschild_Hoarding_Gold_In_Face_Of_Coming_Collapse%3F/23877/0/38/38/Y/M.html
http://www.chinanews.net/index.php/sid/212152938/scat/9366300fc9319e9b/ht/China-to-introduce-gold-exchange-traded-funds
1+1=
Escape velocity eh?
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Canadian Mark Carney, who will take over from Sir Mervyn King in July, hinted strongly at a new approach when he said that central bankers should be prepared to take aggressive measures to help economies achieve what he called "escape velocity". "There remains considerable flexibility – which includes the use of communications, which includes the use of unconventional measures," he said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/26/mark-carney-bank-england
Edwardo,
I started looking through the Fed paper that Krasting linked to:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013/201301/201301pap.pdf
The interest rate projections are entirely unrealistic. The liquidity preference equations that John Hussman presents show why:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110124.htm
The projected numbers:
2015 fed funds rate: 1.0%
2015 fed balance sheet: $2500 B, at the best case. I assume that the size of the balance sheet is roughly equivalent to the monetary base.
GDP growth is assumed at 4-5% through 2013 and 2014.
That combination of values gives an estimate of a 50% jump in consumer prices between now and 2015.
In the '$500 B in purchases' case the fed balance sheet grows to ~$3200 B and the estimated rise in consumer prices nears 100%.
@wil
I lived in AZ for a while and was startled the first time I saw a bike rider (lance armstrong type) with a gun strapped to his thigh.
What you see is called open carry
Many states allow this and have allowed it for a long time.
Mircea: "“Many economists project that, following the crashes of the Euro and the dollar, a return to gold-backed currencies would appear as a world trend. This is only natural, as the fiat currency concept would have been shown to be the farce that it is.”
For this reason, Thomas argued, the hoarding of gold is being done with the aim of redistributing it later on to those nations (or supra-nations, such as the EU and China) the elite have destined to be the future global engines after the old one has been discarded:
“It is entirely possible that all currencies could receive a shake-up, and an entire worldwide system of gold-backed currencies may develop. If this were to occur, the countries that held the largest amounts of gold at that time would be out in front economically(my bold).”
This indeed seems to be the case. As Edmond de Rothschild’s France-based asset management company analyzes for 2013, the so called “emerging markets” are increasingly scooping great chunks of gold from the world’s supply."
jojo,
In this increasingly Orwellian police state, which lately can only be attributable to a general proclivity towards a certain form of U.S. of A-ness ... I salute "open carry" as an in-your-face bird flip to the USDOJ.
I suspect that any FREEGOLD lovin' high plains drifter sides with open carry, Blondie included.
For a true wealth giant such as Rothschild Holdings it is not even so much an art to protect the wealth, as it is to dance with the world as it runs away from gold, only to be in the right place at the right time when the world again sees wealth as you do.
A chess game between political perception managers and a chess master not trying to "win" at all, but only to control the board.
We are not on a gold standard and we never again will be? Perhaps that could eventuate; I myself just don't really know. Got know crystal ball, after all.
But what about a
Real Estate Monetary Standard: the New Wildcat Banking?
http://carolabinder.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/real-estate-monetary-standard-new.html
VtC,
Check out the graph in this article below the following text:
Meanwhile, the negative correlation between real interest rates and gold returns seems to have broken down over the course of the past year:
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-dollar-the-biggest-driver-of-gold-2013-1#ixzz2JLdN2Mr3
Despite my skepticism about causation I'm still wondering why such a long term correlation appears to have broken down?
Thanks, Michael H, for posting the link to the the Hussman site. I used to read his excellent analysis on a regular basis, but, for some reason, he fell off my radar. The monetary authorities were engaged in a delicate balancing act with respect to unleashing "inflation" two years ago, and since then, the situation has become even more precarious.
Edwardo,
"The monetary authorities were engaged in a delicate balancing act with respect to unleashing "inflation" two years ago..."
In retrospect, I'm not sure I agree. I think until now the balancing act was staving off deflation, and I'm not sure how much of a threat of imminent runaway inflation there really was.
But that was then, and this is now.
Good morning Fonoah; (for your eyes only)
The title of the post at Early Warning is:
"Iraq could delay peak oil a decade". Will be
interested to get your views of same, though
not necessary to clutter this blog with such a
peripheral subject. Cheers.
To paraphrase our own Boner Parte, "I brought you
this delicious gefilte fish".
On March 1, 2012, (via a Bloomberg story): The C.B.
of Israel has announced a pilot program to invest a
portion of its reserve assets in U.S. equities, with the
intention to eventually reach as much as 10% of reserves.
Jan 29, 2012
The head of the Central Bank of Israel, Stanley Fisher,
has today announced his intention to step down from that
position. (Stanley Fisher was Ben Bernanke's doctoral
thesis adviser, and personal mentor). Soo...............
Q: Does the AAPL fall far from the tree?? We shall see.
Jet lag error: Jan 29, 2013
Yes, Michael H, perhaps things weren't so delicate then with respect to unleashing inflation. I agree that it's a different ballgame today.
You know, with a nom de plume like PoopyJim, I can't help but think of PJ as a human dung beetle in that picture overly proud of his "prize".
I do hope we may have more pics to come of the first annual FOFCON.
Here's a graph that might interest the residents of this blog. It shows the nominal cost of global oil consumption as a percentage of Gross World Product (GWP). The trend is rising, as you might expect, but still nowhere near the peaks of the early eighties.
costata,
Reginald Howe plotted something similar in the late 1990s and concluded that the dollar had been pegged to gold for a while (surprise!). Perhaps it has been again since fall 2011. Why?
The true long term correlation is the real gold price versus the inverse long term real interest rate. I think they plot a 'fake' real interest rate estimated from the nominal yield and the current inflation or from the nominal yield and the expected (i.e. priced in) inflation. Actual future inflation may come out different. Correlation may still be valid.
Woland,
"Iraq could delay peak oil a decade". Will be
interested to get your views of same, though
not necessary to clutter this blog with such a
peripheral subject.
LOL.
Victor
Victor,
Should you find that Jan. 2010 report worthy of discussion
here, I am sure we would all enjoy hearing your thoughts. Any
attempt to undercut the power of an existing "swing producer"
for political purposes might have consequences worth exploring.
Woland,
Gold/Brent ratio is fixed at 15
The Iraqi oil will not reach the market until that changes.
Victor
Further to VTC's gold/oil chart, here is the same one over a longer period of time. It is very interesting to view through the eyes of ANOTHER, particularly the early 70's. Perhaps it is better to quietly acquire over a longer period of time rather than spiking the market, yes? :)
http://www.macrotrends.org/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart
I think that we have' them by the balls now, act quickly! ;-)
Best Regards,
KG
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/46c25732-6a10-11e2-a7d2-00144feab49a.html
The formulation is not that clear, but it seems they are trying to say that the Swiss banks are hiking the fees on unallocated account in order to push their clients into allocated.
Wondering if this turns out to be true.
Victor
For PoopyJim,
A picture paints a thousand words
Had a few spare minutes, and the image needed to be given life...
http://s1290.beta.photobucket.com/user/byiambyoung/media/poopybeetle_zpse9e2739e.png.html
Still hoping for some more LV pics!
Cheers
I just added a few pictures to the post for anyone interested!
@Wil
Silver could do quite well... right up until it actually matters - you know, that 'Ahhhh! My currency is worthless and I need food!' moment? All those silver eagles will be hitting the market pretty fast at that point. *oops* so that's why it's called poor man's gold!
I am still on the road ATM but when I get back I should have some good pics to share.
Greetz!
Thanks VtC.
Just in passing an author I have mentioned in these pages named Nathan Lewis claimed (in his book, "Gold - The Once And Future Money") that Alan Greenspan tracked gold as part of his strategy for managing the US dollar.
It would seem that the current level of the US dollar index, the recent trading range of gold and the gold:oil ratio suits the various stakeholders. I wonder what it will take to upset the status quo.
Nothing quite like the sight of a Hard Money Socialist with a machine pistol in the morning.
Or a dung beetle pushing its golden prize in the grass....
For the China watchers (my emphasis):
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/01/phat-dragon-sees-an-approaching-plateau-in-chinese-growth/
The practical edge in the present situation is that with evidence of both monetary and fiscal policy flattening out in late 2012, it is time to begin considering when activity will do the same. The hump’ that Phat Dragon has chosen to characterise the profile for activity through 2013 does that formally.
The developments in the public balance sheet catalogued above are aligned with what credit growth and the investment pipeline were already implying strongly: that the present rebound is unlikely to extend as far as early 2014, with a plateau forming as early as the middle of the current year.
Hi Costata,
I remember the cover story of one issue (last year?) of the Economists magazine was titled: Everything You know About China is Wrong.
I don't have to read the details of the PD paper. I just know.
FOFOA
"Gold hoarder dies alone - RIP Walter Samasko Jr"
Just received this email of the above previous FOFOA post.
What is the message? I don't mean the obvious message of the original post but the "subtle" message by posting it now?
duggo
Perhaps it was to share perspective.
In current western thought, a man like that dying alone is a nobody.
One wonders if his death, and also life would have been different had we not been living under the $IMFS, and how it will be seen in future on perspective on gold changes.
...or perhaps it is simply an illustration that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent..or even alive. lmao.
TF
Here is a link to a Rick Ackerman article about an ongoing debate between Rick and Gonzalo Lira "Why Gold Isn't Higher'" This blog is mentioned (deflation v HI) and has subtitles like "Paper vs. Physical" and "Gold Hoarders Beware."
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1359558000.php
One thing the Ackerman article shows is that he has a good memory. He come pretty close to being accurate in recalling those brawls of 2011. He mentions our host as a top hyperinflationista.
"Gold is an asset based currency, thus it represents payment in full, where as fiat currency is a debt based currency that represents a claim in the system. In this light, the ‘preservation of wealth’ simply means - he who holds gold has already been paid." Ender
hoarder update:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2013/jan/29/auction-set-gold-coins-found-recluses-garage/
A thought just occurred but I don't have time to think it through...Would it be possible for the paper gold market to go very high without hyperinflation? In other words, all the currencies would devalue against gold. Instead of our assumed physical only reval however could paper possibly go along for the ride.
It could happen if there was a panic out of other paper into paper gold sending the price up. If the world tolerates a very high paper to physical ratio now, why would it not tolerate it at a high POG?
It will probably occur to me on the way to work but for now it seems possible. If that happened would it not fix a lot of things? Those with physical would benefit and those with paper would too. hmmmm
Michael dV,
"Instead of our assumed physical only reval however could paper possibly go along for the ride."
FWIW, FOFOA has written somewhere that high gold prices are the only way to stave off hyperinflation, but that it is unlikely that events will take us down that path.
As for high gold prices for both paper and physical ... my view is that, while the current rising gold / "gold" price trend helps to take pressure off the system and can continue for a long while, eventually the $IMFS will have to end and the new world financial architecture must take its place.
I think that the new architecture will have gold serving as the ultimate settlement of imbalances between currency blocks. This function can only be fulfilled by physical gold, and not by gold-denominated bank liabilities.
Holding paper gold at that time would be like China depositing their USD forex reserves in a non-FDIC insured bank savings account.
Blondie "
Paul said:
"I personally find it hard to imagine popping down the shops with a bag of gold and silver coins. That's a gold backed currency."
That's gold as currency.
A gold backed currency is a currency redeemable for a fixed amount of gold, eg USD 1933-71 @ $35/oz.
Two different things.
Freegold is different again:
"For a monetary system to work, anyone, anywhere, must be able to exchange the currency for gold at a floating rate. We call this FREEGOLD.""
If I could do a Sienfeld, instead of saying 'Newman' I would say 'backed'.
Or if I could spell Seinfeld correctly but I'll stick with trying to use the word 'backed' correctly.
Michael Dv, hyperinflation occurs due to lack of confidence in the currency maintaining its current, and near-term purchasing power( the time element ). Losing 2% per year for example doesn't seem to concern most folks. Losing 2% per month gets their attention, 2% per week or per day, mon dieu.
I can't imagine a scenario where people wake up en masse to the fact paper money is shite, but still think that paper gold is somehow OK. Both are just claims to something not something in and of itself ( h/t Ender above ). I think the entire confidence jig irrespective of the type of paper claim.
It's quite fascinating that two of the worlds "reference point problems", namely value and the kilogram, both involve gold in their (admittedly imperfect) solutions. Who wants to use platinum and iridium anyways - it's not nearly as shiny!
http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21569360-better-way-clean-worlds-one-true-kilogram-mass-effect
I don't know why I keep reading the Yahoo finance/Reuters articles about Fed actions...they always seem to be just vapid doubletalk. This time, though, the truth accidently slipped out about QE3:
"An unexpected halt in the buying, which accounts for a considerable part of the demand for U.S. Treasury debt, could send long-term borrowing costs shooting up and damage the recovery."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-seen-maintaining-bond-buying-060356452.html
Cheers
For the case you have not seen: Now public for the first time!
Deutsche Bundesbank Gold inventory since 1948 ...
http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/Bundesbank/Wissenswert/gold_entwicklung.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
and Deutsche Bundesbank Gold transactions since 1951 ...
http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/Bundesbank/Wissenswert/gold_transaktionen.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
Rick Ackerman new piece on gold/$HI with a FOFOA mention.......
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-01-30/why-isnt-gold-higher
Thank you, ein anderer.
Very interesting to see they have used sight accounts (unallocated), although not significantly since 2010.
I found the leasing column was also very interesting indeed from 1997 until 2007.
Prost!
Jeff,
Thanks for the hoarder update! Think again, to those who thinks recluse hoarders are anti-social. $800,000 in inheritance tax, eh? Keeping .gov going!!!
Ore em',
Amazing how useful this useless metal is!?
This is actually one of the biggest stumbling blocks amongst my friends when I talk about gold: "but it is useless, how can it be valuable?"... Well, maybe it is just useful in another way than commodities.
Ein Anderer, excellent, thanks! Certainly supportive of the Freegold thesis!
Bundesbank gold transactions since Euro era began: Really small amounts and only für Münzprägung!
Cheers!
/Burning
ein anderer,
Herzlichen Dank, sehr nützlich. MfG
The Las Vegas trip looked like a lot of fun. The last time I went to LV is when I took the course for my CCW permit. Interesting that I have Concealed Carry Permits (Utah, Florida) for non-residents that allow me to carry in about 39 states but I can't get one for my home state of Calif. Ridiculous.
On another note: I have read some of the discussions on the "folly" of owning gold miners. The argument against gold miners seems to be that the gov will either confiscate or regulate them. For confiscation the gov would need to compensate and for regulation - why is that reason to believe that one would lose his entire investment?
I do have physical gold but I also have some money that I can't access right now(IRA) to buy more physical. I guess I don't understand why it is such a bad idea to own some miners in addition to physical.
ein anderer,
thanks - this is very very very nice. Until 1997, they had some tonnes swapped out. Then they didn't roll it over, and they took it home from London over the subsequence three years.
As of 2013, some people (GATA) still haven't figured it out that the gold market turned abound in 1997-1999. On Friday, on KWN, Turk will probably claim that the Illuminati fudged these two PDFs.
Victor
OMG, need coffee. "they had some 730 tonnes swapped out" and it "turned around". Why can't this spell checker verify the content?
Victor
FWIW,
Bruce Krasting sees capital flight in China and Japan.
enough: Thanks for the Ackerman post: " Imagine how the world would react if someone in Congress merely mentioned that The Government was going to cover all of the obligations and liabilities of public and private pensions and health plans. If and when that day arrives, I will have no argument with Lira and the hyperinflationists about the likely outcome."
weh weh weh weh weh is the sound of a helicopter
FOFOA -- Thanks for posting the pictures. It makes me happy to see all the smiling faces!
What is the unit mentioned in the gold transaction PDF of bundesbank. It says Tsd. ozf. I don't know what it means. Although it seems nearly 100kgs. Based on VTC's comment
I just got home from the FOFCON-2013, it was 8 days of driving, planes, buses, skytrain, and it was fantastic.
My friend came to my house tonight and her first words were "you loved it!" I said yes, Vegas was great. She said, "no I mean you loved the guns" (I had posted this avatar on facebook)
she said that she could tell by my posture that I was in my element and said: "I know you have a plan!!"
I do ................shooting guns are in my future. I have no yardstick to measure my performance, which was likely pathetic, but I really like it anyways!!
Wendy
you are a natural....look at your posture...perfect...leaning into it...focused...ready for a protection detail.!
Anand, it seems the unit is 1000oz and everywhere they swap the decimal point '.' for a comma ',' and vice versa.
Victor
Unrelated question: During the Iran hostage crisis after Khomeini's revolution in Iran, there was some action in the gold market - the U.S. blocked the Iranian gold held at the FRBNY or something like that.
Can someone point me to the details, i.e. exactly what happened, how much gold, how it was resolved etc.?
Thanks,
Victor
anand srivastava, Victor:
Yes, "Tsd." means Tausend = 1’000.
Thanks ein anderer.
Here is another peace of information which seems to be quite relevant for the Freegold theory: "The Coming [read: ongoing] Isolation of USDollar"
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1356642000.php
I wonder how the Jackass REALLY feels about the USD (͡°͜Ê–͡°)
But though many here will write off Turds and Jackass's as fringe moonbats, there is quite a bit of truth clinging between the tattered edges of delerium.
Yes Jim Willie is the Hunter S Thompson of the PM world. I love reading his stuff for the same reason I loved HST, pure fun. Gonzo journalism to be sure.
FOFOA, I have attempted to edit my profile and I though I had successfully loaded an avatar. It appears on my profile but not when posting. Help anyone?
Unbelievable. I guess you just have to ask for help, and by magic it immediately appears. Hmmm...what others powers does this FOFOA fellow have?
Wendy,
That pic is pretty bad ass. I agree, you look like a natural.
I bet that zombie is really dead now.
€ POG @ 1225, and sinking like a gold-plated tungsten rock.
The eccentric and quite loveable Mr. Sinclair should have attended FOFCON !!!
My Dear Extended Family and Euro Ex-Pat Snobs,
Read and weep you expat euro snobs that swore the euro was finished. Those who looked me in face as if I was mad at lunch when bullish long term on the falling euro. Gold is why the euro is doing what it is doing, and mark of gold to the market will be universal among the strong currencies. Those that do not have or buy gold resisting marking their gold reserves to the market are sentencing their currency to the bottom of the batch.
Pat
As soon as I saw that avatar I had a scary flashback! I saw them in concert in the mid 70's(my first contact high). Now I can't get Me262 out of my mind!
Wendy, FWIW, as one who has a shotgun, a rifle, and a 4-wheel drive you holdin' it like you own it.
Enough: Wow, go Jim Sinclair!
When the Gold Bugs Start Selling, Look Out!
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-01-31/when-gold-bugs-start-selling-look-out
@DP, people still confuse paper gold with bullion. Including the guys at ZH.
DP, very few things on the internet make me laugh out loud, but that picture...
Whatever they're selling, it's not supportive of the $PoG. Sure if they're selling physical, it will help keep the flow moving a little longer.
But it still won't help the CBs avoid deflation.
Gold price in USD is down. USD is down against other currencies even Indian Rupees.
Gold should be silently flowing to East now, just like the waterfall in 911 memorial in NYC.
I definitely think that Indian imports including official/smuggling channel should be picking up now, maybe we can verify next quarter numbers.
otorrinolaringologista
interdisciplinarianism
cholangiopancreatography
multidisciplinarianism
interdenominationalism
jojo,
I think we have an emergency! Or not...
lol
yeah, and they don;t dial 911 in Russia...
...they dial 9235682985620946
:)
Just making sure I fill my quota.
Knotty Pine,
The preacher man says it's the end of time
Best country song ever, my all-time favorite.
@MichaelDV
Surely you know that nowadays the heresy you mentioned in your question copied below is simply ignored here? Where once there was thought and debate, now there is....?
But you are of course correct, paper & physical gold at parity can exist at any price.
'A thought just occurred but I don't have time to think it through...Would it be possible for the paper gold market to go very high without hyperinflation? In other words, all the currencies would devalue against gold. Instead of our assumed physical only reval however could paper possibly go along for the ride.
It could happen if there was a panic out of other paper into paper gold sending the price up. If the world tolerates a very high paper to physical ratio now, why would it not tolerate it at a high POG?
It will probably occur to me on the way to work but for now it seems possible. If that happened would it not fix a lot of things? Those with physical would benefit and those with paper would too. hmmmm'
hmmm indeed.
Hi Sleeping Village,
Is your name related to this tune? One of my favorite B.S. tunes!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nZMJHLybPM
h/t Mortymer for the following on the Iranian gold:
On the legal situation p. 235 of
article
On the quantity (about 50 tonnes):
article 1
article 2
Victor
Thanks to all for their comments about paper and physical rising together. If confidence is the issue, and I guess it would be if it is giants doing the dealing, then in a world flush with paper lies I can see that only physical would do. I do still wonder how high paper will go. We are seeing that even though we have promises of lots more paper dollars the price of 'gold' is range bound. I wonder if that means something. Maybe it is just being kept in that range until a few details are taken care of and then....?
Frankly, I believe we have entered a time where there is "one game for giants" and "one game for shrimp".
I believe that physical gold moves in size at a huge premium. But publicly, according to a different (fishbowl) standard.
The premium paid is for precious TIME. Time to acquire large resource assets while paper still buys them.
That time grows short ... therefore the risk premium.
Michael dV,
Keep in mind that the inflation of paper gold causes the gold price to decline. So paper gold will go as low as the reserve management of the bullion banks will allow it to go. Supply can always be expanded to meet demand.
Knotty Pine,
Yep! I'm a bit of a Sabbath freak and I dig all things heavy and fuzzy from the early daze. Good eye/ear, BTW:)
Bad Guy
Surprisingly heavy for 1973. Early metal, and certainly inspired by Sabbath...
@Michael dV
On high priced paper gold, I won't directly answer but I'll ask a few questions that hopefully are relevant:
1. Gold/Oil ratio. How long can oil prices keep up with rising gold prices before the real economy gets hurt? Or will oil decide to go with less ounces (Value-for-value)?
2. Gold has so far tended to "dry out" when prices rose as big holders (many inter-generational) are more likely to hold on to it the higher it goes. So what happens to the flow?
3. Related to the above: as prices go up (inflation revealed), would human nature not dictate that counter-party risk be eliminated for big holders? As they convert unallocated (fully paid) to fully allocated in the fractional reserved BBs, what happens to flow? How many pukes can GLD have? How is cash settlement going to treat all contracts whose minor pool of physical has been exhausted?
4. Once paper gold goes to new highs, don't all "gold investors" "catch this top together?" Because paper contracts imply commodity pricing and no commodity can be a commodity and have the price really out-of-what with the rest of the group - they stay more-or-less in-sync. So paper contracts imply commodity pricing, and therefore staying in line with the other commodities or sell out when too high. And how high can the rest of the commodities rise against real-world assets before the real economy gets hurt. Back to Q1, eh?
That's because only gold RECOGNIZED as a non-commodity can (physical only) can be allowed to rise against real-world assets without hurting the real economy. If it has ties to the rest of the commodities (paper futures/commodity market) the price can only track the rest of the metals.
Hopefully this makes sense to you
Aquilus
P.S. Thanks again for your hospitality! Much, much appreciated and talked about (in a good way :) )
@ Biju
"I definitely think that Indian imports including official/smuggling channel should be picking up now"
Thats something I want to get into. I have a few good ideas.
But I need to know the exact prices I can get for say, 1 oz or 5 oz bars in India.
If I brought some physical over, would I be paid in US dollars or Rupees ?
Anyone know ?
Aquilus
I have time for one answer...
I suspect that oil will either be satisfied with gold price until they are not. At some point might they decide to get more gold by outright purchases? Perhaps small amounts, less than market disruptive. Did not Another speak of an ounce per thousand barrels? Lets see ...at that rate ...1000 ounces for each million barrels....10 million barrels per day...a ton every 3 days...over 100 tons a year...might work for a while. Combined with cash I suppose that could work for a while. What do you think SA is doing now? Are they still being supplied off market? I can't imagine they suddenly lost their taste for real assets and started to love paper.
Phil O Dendron,
I was just scrolling back through and noticed that no one answered your question about owning gold mining stocks. You have a retirement account that you're not allowed to withdraw from so you're wanting to know about owning gold miners in it.
Well, the problem with many gold mining companies is that they often own mines in Central and South America and sometimes Africa. Post-freegold (and probably before then), those countries will be more likely to nationalize their below-ground gold whereas the US and Canada will most likely just make mining companies pay extremely high royalty fees. There's a reason many of those countries are third world shitholes and hair-brained schemes like nationalizing resources is just one of many reasons they'll remain third world shitholes, FG or no FG. Private companies can extract these resources much more efficiently than state-run enterprises, even when they're having to pay royalty fees.
So IMO, it's just too risky to own mining stocks (especially in a fund where there's so many different companies included in the fund) at this point in time. But if you absolutely must own miners, I'd make sure the company only has mines in the US or Canada. Now, post-FG, I'd say owning gold mining stocks would be pretty similar to owning utilities in your portfolio today. The share prices won't move all that much but they'll probably pay decent dividends.
If I were you and I had that retirement account that I couldn't touch, I'd just buy large cap funds or companies that are more likely to be big enough to weather the storm. Or if you have access to the Toronto exchange, buy some Fortress Paper stock. Their business is sure to boom ;)
Now, the brokerage house that manages your retirement plan may burn the flames, but if I had to bet, I'd say there will be some big bailout deal where you'll at least get to keep some or most of your shares after all the ashes have settled.
I'm not just making this up off the cuff either. I speak from experience. My wife has one of those retirement accounts through her employer and I had her split it up 3 ways in a large cap US fund, an international fund, and a euro-pacific fund. Yeah sure, I could get her to cash it in, but we'd have to pay those penalties. Because of old grudges that I harbor, I'd rather eat a loss than give those cocksuckers in DC another dime than I have to. Maybe it's stupid to be that way, but IDGAF. I have principles, goddamnit!
My wife has principles too. One of which would be her telling me to fuck off if I suggested she cashed in her retirement account :)
Anyway, I hope I've been of help. And if you go back through the comments, I remember matrixsentry talking about some fancy way he figured out how to hold allocated gold in his employer-based retirement account. Maybe somebody can post a link because I don't remember which post it was in.
RJ
http://breakfornews.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=79553#79553
Fintan Dunne modifies FOFOA theory.
Multiple links to FOFOA blog.
Long audio on FreeGold called - The Invisible Revolution Part 2 : The Birth of New Money
RJP: Agree, that seems to be the most prudent way. But I would think buying stocks of stable companies that are asset based would also be good. Yes that money should be split in as many good ways as possible. So that you get something back.
M
I had been talking to my jeweler, about the smuggling.
He said that yes they are getting people who bring gold in 5-10Kg lots, but while earlier (before 1990), they used to keep it with them and collect the cash later. But now, they want the money immediately. This means that they must have a lot of cash.
Currently they are not expecting USDs, as Rupee is now easily convertible to other currencies. And everybody does not want USDs now. There are competing currencies like Euro.
So if you were to bring in the gold, you would not get USD, but you would need to convert the Rs to USD/Euro yourself. There is a lot of margin in India, over spot. Lot more in Delhi.
I tried to check the price of my coins. The BullionDesk was showing 3005Rs/gm for 995gold. The MCX (the Indian exchange for metals), was showing 3038 for the same I think. He was offering me 3035 for my 9999 PAMP gold coin. That might give you an Idea of the margins :-). The margin would be lower in Bangalore and even lower in Chennai.
For the Japan watchers!
I have been watching the surging price of gold in Yen and wondering if the Japanese might take the lead in the gold revaluation sweepstakes.
The post linked below got my attention when it compared the use of cash in a number of economies. Japan as you can see is a clear leader in cash transactions and Europeans appear to have a strong preference in that direction as well. Here's the relevant passage (with my emphasis) from the extract below it:
At a massive 115% of GDP, M1 money plays a bigger role in the economy than it does in most other developed nations (c.f., the ~50% in the Eurozone, or the ~20% which prevails in the US).
The message could be that the Japanese may be more acutely sensitive to anything that threatens their currency and the debt that supports it than others. Here's the passage that I'm referring to and the link to the article it came from:
It would not, however, be too wise for the authorities to flout the wishes of their long-suffering citizens, especially not when they have such a deep, vested interest in seeing neither their money, nor the banks and government debt which provide its backstop undermined.
At a massive 115% of GDP, M1 money plays a bigger role in the economy than it does in most other developed nations (c.f., the ~50% in the Eurozone, or the ~20% which prevails in the US). As such, it makes up 55% of household financial assets and over 70% of financial net worth, with another 25% of the total exposed directly or otherwise to government debt.
http://www.cobdencentre.org/2013/01/the-walking-dead/
Wil Martindale,
"I believe that physical gold moves in size at a huge premium."
Do you have any evidence at all or was this just a dream you had as you fondled your stack? Thanks in advance.
Hi everyone,
Cheers to LV attendees, wish I was there. Thanks for the photos, now I'm really jealous. BTW I'd be staying the heck away from Wendy's hoard.
Looks like a really interesting year, I'll be eating popcorn and drinking beer while watching it play out.
@ChrisF I took Will to mean "I believe..." as in "it makes logical sense to me that...". We all know Another's posts about gold trading in the many thousands etc.
Do you think this isn't the case today? I doubt anyone can prove one way or the other.
Cheers
BH
How would US oil selfsufficiency via fracking effect Freegold? See 49th Munich Security Converence; Panel discussion 17:30 CET
Programme:
http://www.securityconference.de/fileadmin/user_upload/data/pdf/Sprecherprogramm_2013-02-01.pdf
"Live":
http://www.securityconference.de/1
The energy independance theme was discussed alread in May 2012:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2012/05/inflation-or-hyperinflation.html?showComment=1336333817674#c3737059145744546074
Hello Costata;
Do you remember, in the aftermath of Fukushima, when, days
later, large numbers (in the thousands I believe) of metal safes
began washing up on the shores where the tsunami had roared
in. They were filled with cash and other valuables. This was
said to be a far more common practice, especially among less
sophisticated urban dwellers, for whatever reason. (distrust
of banks, or "black" economy) There was a big problem
with identifying the former owners. It was a big story at the
time.
RJ
Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions.
I too have a "spousal unit" that I have to consider when I make a major move even though it is my IRA. A happy wife is a happy life you know.
You are right about the taxes on taking the money out of the IRA. It is not a lot of fun.
As far as your comment about miners haveing operations in 3rd world countries; well I think that the US is rapidly becoming a 3rd world country also.
In addition to miners in my IRA I also have some Canada Central Fund (CEF). They have both physical gold and silver. Indeed it is still a paper promise but I think it might be a better paper promise than some others. I am always looking for good ideas on how I can keep some of my money during and after the reset.
VIC,
hiya bro !!
Do you see any significance in 42 tonnes standing for deliver at comex?
best, E
@SV
Love your music, here are some Aussie tunes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpJAz7JnALE
Hope to meet you some time :-)
Current gold price in euros: €1219/oz. This is of course far, far below the €1246 FOFOA mentioned as a treshold price for "Goldhog Day". But is this significant, does it mean that the support really is gone? Or would the support, if it still exists, only kick in during the days leading up to the half-year mark?
Börjesson,
I think only the price on the snapshot day matters. That's what goes on the balance sheet. In between snapshots is just noise.
Phil,
Here is what I have done. As a consequence of the bankruptcy of my employer I have had my defined benefit pension terminated and the proceeds of the payout were directed to a newly formed IRA, an existing 401k, and an existing defined contribution retirement fund. This was compulsory and dictated by a bankruptcy claim awarded to my pilot union. As such the only proceeds available to me for purchase of physical gold was the money in the IRA. The money in the 401k and DC fund can not be distributed until my retirement or separation from company employment.
Initially I rolled the IRA from traditional brokerage to a self directed IRA, where I was able to purchase gold bullion. This gold was stored at a depository in Delaware as directed by the IRA custodian. Later I established an IRA LLC and rolled the bullion into it from the self directed IRA. I now warehouse my own bullion as well as maintain checkbook control over the IRA. I have avoided penalties for early withdrawal, but remain under the finger of Uncle Sugar. In the end I may still have to pay a penalty depending on the whims of my government.
The money trapped in the 401k/DC fund is constrained to full brokerage, all paper. Initially I held positions in mining stocks, but after seeing persistent under performance relative to gold I abandoned them in favor of ETFs and leveraged derivatives. Shortly after, I fully absorbed A/FOA/FOFOA and then came to believe that miners are definitely going continue to under perform gold. However, I realized gold ETFs and derivatives were going to likely under perform even more relative to gold when we enter transition to Freegold. I stopped trading leverage and went with close ended allocated gold bullion funds like CEF and PHYS.
While recognizing the risk with owning shares, I really have no choice. It's either own shares in the safest bullion fund I can find or own shares in companies that can maintain underlying productivity throughout a Freegold transition. Initially I went with Sprott's PHYS. After scrutinizing the prospectus, I realized that Sprott retained full and sole authority to close the fund at anytime for any reason. This did not bode well for a Freegold transition where gold price collapses with the demise of paper gold. Sprott could shutdown the fund as the shares become very cheap and buy up all the shares with a bunch of dollars he would love to get rid of. In addition, a well moneyed person can draw gold from PHYS if he acquires enough shares to represent 1 400 oz bar. So a big player could effectively drain PHYS of its gold while he dumps his dying paper.
I reasoned that a better play was GTU, the Central Gold Trust. Just like CEF, except it holds gold bullion only as opposed to both gold and silver. That fund has a shareholder elected board and has been around a lot longer than Sprott. I think there is less danger of play on the shares when share price is in the vulnerable stage. Something about Sprott rubs me wrong. IMO he is a pump and dumper. Also, there is no option to exchange shares for bullion in the fund and therefore a way to convert paper into gold. The best someone could for would be to acquire all the shares and wait things out until gold is re-valued to post Free-gold levels.
(cont.)
(cont)
Admittedly things have to fall my way for GTU to survive and protect my wealth until I can it of shares into bullion. Ideally, Freegold could come after I retire. Not likely IMO, I have 15 years to go. The fund must survive the transition where the market price of gold collapses, then is unknown, and finally established at many multiples of the current price. In that case, I still have the ultimate counter party, the USG to deal with. They must not move to confiscate my shares either outright or through punitive taxation. The same thing applies if the money were held in equity shares.
I do not believe we will see gold confiscation or a move by the USG to ban ownership of gold. However, I do not discount the idea that the USG will try to move via taxation or rule changes designed to force investors into gov debt. The gov's insatiable thirst for other people's money will be hard to quench. That is where I see the risk.
While I have adequate gold bullion in my possession to protect my net wealth in a Freegold world, I have a substantial position in allocated gold shares that I hope to protect. I am open to any non-gold paper positions that can perform as good or better than GTU. I am constantly trying to find something that I can have confidence in, and so far I have haven't found it.
Hope this helps.
ChrisF:
In Another's own words, "Think that I a fool, because I trade gold for thousands US an oz.?" and this was said in November 1997 when "all the world" saw gold as a non interest bearing commodity. Then we have the recent blog post from out host talking about a relatively medium sized "official" amount on the trading table, all being bought at a premium by a private party (I don't remember the exact reference, maybe someone else here could).
If the flow, of gold is priced in the maintenance of confidence, currency printers can print away to infinity in order to support the status quo, up and to the point that the actually printing disrupts the status quo and we have already crossed the rubicon of that expectation.
So the unseen value of gold for Giants is far more in paper terms today than the paper value shown for shrimps. Far more than 1997 I suspect. This is why generational wealth dynasties have always lent to royalty, and governments. And not always on the most forgiving of terms.
It's partly a dream, or a deduction from puzzle pieces that fit that way, but as far as fondling my stacks, I can't do it. They're shrink-wrapped into these little grab it and run flat sheets.
The fondling is for AFTER the revaluation. Only then will I break them "free" (in tribute) and listen to the way the clink dropped upon a wooden table for the first time.
BH,
Good tune, his wife is his drummer, how cool is that. Glad you dig the tunes I post. I know there's a couple of you that do! There must be some lurkers out there rockin' out to the fuzzed-up, stonedness I usually post up. I've always prefered my words to be musical.
I keep doing what I'm doing
I do not believe we will see gold confiscation or a move by the USG to ban ownership of gold. However, I do not discount the idea that the USG will try to move via taxation or rule changes designed to force investors into gov debt. The gov's insatiable thirst for other people's money will be hard to quench. That is where I see the risk.
@Matrix,
The flow of gold will be at zero if taxes are punitive. An outright ban of gold will only lead to a severe case of Gresham's law resulting in another collapse of the dollar/bond market. As a result, the USG will no longer be able to pay the police force required to uphold the gold ban law.
dieuwer,
Regardless of rationality or consequences, I fully expect the gov to take measures that it believes will ensure survival. The measures they take may be short-sighted and consequently short lived. I expect the transition to be chaotic at best. It isn't post Freegold that I worry about. It is the ramp into and then through transition that I worry about.
enough,
Do you see any significance in 42 tonnes standing for deliver at comex?
I haven't verified the numbers, but I remember Sandeep tweeting that there was some slight backwardation earlier this week (and last week?). If true, you might be seeing the obvious arbitrage, i.e. someone sold spot and bought the future.
Victor
Something to think about: "The IRA is the antithesis to Gold as Savings".
Wil Martindale,
I agree entirely with your sentiment as I am sure most people here.
It is a comforting thought that a real giant who supplies the world with the marginal (say) 5 million barrels/day of oil loves Gold and is happy to accumulate real stuff or 'guaranteed' physical on paper ad infinitum in return for this favour. Even more comforting is the suggestion that this Gold is valued at a huge premium to current market.
I am slightly surprised that after so many years this info is not widely known in the market. I would have thought someone's girlfriend would have leaked it out by now !
Chris
I doubt 'someone's girlfriend' would be believed...Another wasn't....cept by a few cult followers.
These deals are never made public, even now. We read that China is accumulating physical...but from where? Gold is moving, price is stable....so where is it coming from.
Consider this: China could buy all the gold available with it's Treasury holdings....every ounce it wanted....but China goes behind closed doors to get it's gold. This means it is avoiding running the price to a gazillion an ounce, which open market purchases would do, and must be paying a premium to acquire it. It seems likely that Another was correct. For gold going to the right people it is available and the price is much higher than we know.
Part 1 of 2
Write up about nexus between Indian Gold import duty/smugglers/Foreign exchange market :
==============================================
Currently Indian Govt imposes a 6% duty on Gold imports through official channels.Since Gold forms a large part of Indian imports, this 6% should show up in official dollar/Rupee conversion - ie the unoffical exhcange Dollar/Rupee exchange rate should should show a part of this 6% above offical rate, so that smugglers can import Gold by converting their Gold to Dollar.
In the 1980's and early 1990's Indian Govt nearly got away with this by strict capital controls. ie it was very very difficult to get an Indian Bank to give you dollar for Rupees to import things and there was high import duties for most things.But they ultimately ended in foreign currency crisis in 1991.
How can they do prevent smugglers now ? expecially with Rupee nearly fully convertible to Dollar.Govt will have to do some capital controls now to prevent this leak, which will lead to above crisis again. I will show the chain of events below.
From 1994 to approx 2011:
=========================
Gold Import duty was like 2% and it was not worth taking risk for smuggler to do Gold smuggling.
From 2012 onwards
=================
Gold Import duty now hiked to 6%. Now a smuggler getting 100 kgs to Jewellers, will want cash immediately and turn around and use shell companies and get official rates of Rupee-to-Dollar exchange to then get Dollars to Dubai and then smuggle Gold again to make that 6% over and over again. If the shell companies fail to get them dollars, they will go to unofficial market for dollar and this can induce a higher unoffical dollar rate(maybe 3%) causing hawala transactions to increase and Govt gradually loosing control of foreign exchange market.
Following numbers are only approximate. will have to dig deeper to get accurate numbers.
India imports approx $50 Billion worth of Gold/year now, and assuming 50% of this starts going through smuggling from now on, So if Govt introduces captital controls, then smugglers will have to find approx $2 Billion dollars every month in the unofficial market.
is this $2B / month Big ? not now I think, but adding this with if indian expatriate money which balances Indian imports, takes a hawala route(HAWALA explained at end) because smugglers are giving better rate, it can become a problem.
Let me explain.
Approx
Indian imports per month:
Non-oil Non-Gold imports- $20 B /month
Oil imports - $14 B/month
Gold imports - $ 4 B/month
==============
Total - $38 B/month
Indian exports per month : - $ 25 B/moth
The trade deficit is appox $13 B/month and I think all of this deficit is compensated by Indian expatriates sending money and then some capital money from Western Funds. So a diversion of $2B away from the $13B will slowly take a hit and if most of this starts taking the Hawala routes through unoffical channels, Indian Govt will lose control of foreign currency market, which they regained after 1994's Gold import abolishment. That Gold import relaxation was done after India had a foreign exchange crisis in 1991. Nowadays most people go through official channels to convert foreign currency to Rupees, because there is no difference from offial rate. This can change to an environment like it was before 1994.
Part 2 of 2
Conclusion:
==========
(1)
As Indian Govt hikes Gold import rates, unofficial Gold smuggling picks up, which cause Govt introducing some sort of capital controls to prevernt conversion of rupees to dollars, which cause dollar unoffialrate to increase and diverge from offcial rate, which cause hawala transaction to pickup because expatriates get better rate, which cause Indian Govt to lose control of foreign exchange market,causing problems importing Oil/Captial Goods, causing exchange rate to fall further and further difference between offical/unofficial exchange rate...
Not a good cycle.
(2) Now combining with FOFOA's theory that if paper price crashes what happens ?
The smuggler will have to get a currency that can be used to get physical Gold. What will be that ? Also when paper price crashes, I think there will be increased demand from India, which combined with the 6% duty cause further problems.
I think the Indian Govt action of increasing duty is a bad move especially with nearly full convertibility of Rupee to dollar.
NOTE : Current Gold imports country data - switzerland : 56%, UAE : 18%, South Africa : 11%, Australia : 7% Switzerland exports nearly 30 tons to India, As smuggling picks up, this official volume should fall.
HAWALA : works like this. I call a local agent in USA and say I want to send $5000 to my family in India.He contacts his agent in India and delivers cash to my home. Only then would I have to give my local agent US$ in cash/check. THere can be shell companies which deal with this money in USA. if I don't pay him in USA, the hawala operator can cause harm to my family in India. So the transaction is nearly fool proof. In this way not only smugglers in india
One more comment : Suppose smugglers need only $2 B/month for Gold smuggling but if hawala operators get around $6 B/month , they can create an industry to ship the remaining $4B as black money for rich people to off shore accounts. That is a good business plan to help people avoid any taxation of black money income.
PS : sorry for my high school level of writing..not good with converting thoughts to words.
Dieuwer, all paper is still a short on gold.
Seems to me if the "spiders" aka "commercials" were about to crush /cash settle / pulverize, the paper gold market, they would not have reduced their short interest by 22,000 contracts and increased their longs by 7,000 contracts in the lastest weekly reporting period, just released.......just saying......
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1359750890.php
RJP
re "3rd world shit holes" and their economic inefficiencies - I suggest reading Confessions of an Economic Hitman, which offers an entirely different social perspective on those very countries.
best
TB
@Michael dV
Continuing our paper gold going very high conversation, just one perspective for you to consider:
A derivatives (aka "paper" / futures) gold market exists as long as gold is defined and treated as a COMMODITY.
No different than steel, pork bellies, wheat, copper, etc.
Treated a commmodity, demand is thought of as LIMITED to jewelry and investment, with some "tradition" buying thrown in.
This commodity treatment would break down if the price of paper gold would start to appreciate anywhere near the price of MONETARY RESERVE gold. Why? Because all commodities in this world fluctuate within more-or-less normal ratios, regardless of the currency used. Wheat/Copper, Milk/Beef, etc not get distorted by orders of magnitude...
Yet, that is what a high paper gold price would have to do (gold/anything ratio go super-high) or else if all commodities keep pace (somewhat), all industries in the real world and the economy as a whole will be hurt by super-high input costs.
But let's assume that paper gold does go up high and the other commodities don't. The traders don't care. But guess who will start caring?
Not oil necessarily, because they know they have something the world needs, so gold will be found for them (plus they have the mining financing deals).
There's this whole other class of people/entities that play in the gold arena in bulk quantities, and paid for their gold in full. The unallocated gold holders with bullion banks, the LBMA system, and other such institutions. Those BBs make no secret in the fact that they OFFICIALLY transact in fractionally reserved gold.
Now here I have to rely on "what in everyone's best interest". Let's say you're an entity that purchased a few hundred million/a few billion dollars (you need that amount to play in the BB/LBMA) unallocated gold around $1600.
The contract (paper) gold price just went to say $5000. All other commodities do not keep pace with this gold rise. What's in your best interest?
Do you sell it for dollars that are clearly depreciating, and convert it to other assets at this point (catching "the top")? You're sitting on some serious amount of dollars if you sell - where can they go? You see that misallocation of capital skewed the stock and bond markets, overflowed into commodities, and there is only so much unique art and castles to go around at this time...
So if you don't sell it, do you see CBs using physical gold as a balance-sheet recapitalizing reserve, and start worrying more about counter-party risk, the higher the price goes? If you do, allocating would remove the risk. More than a small percentage of entities allocating would start a little bit of an avalanche given the fractional reserve nature of the market?
But no problem, physical can be found in GLD, and a few other BB repositories initially. But as the repositories shrink, the paper to physical ratio increases. The more allocation, the more connected people notice. Do more of them allocate or get out of the market why prices are good? You tell me... And what happens to the contract price? Does it go up or down on less "backing"?
(cont)
See, that is what's different about gold: while contract gold allows us to treat the demand for it as a commodity, the smallest realization that the physical stuff is actually a MONETARY RESERVE (denominating all of global human productivity with the dollar losing reserve status) makes us realize that demand for the stuff is really almost unlimited.
That realization has not hit yet, but as a reserve asset, no entity on this planet will say "that's enough, I will not take any more of this stuff". They will use it on the same level as art, key real estate, and other unique assets for preservation of wealth, and there's never a lack of demand at that point.
Here's FOA talking about this unlimited demand better than I can (but he uses the term "money" which hopefully will not confuse folks - he's not talking about money as currency but money as long term saving assets):
"The "paper boys" try and paint a picture of gold like "old oil men" looked at values "back then". They were wrong and so are the "paper boys" today. The Smiths and Arnolds of the world try to convince us that the supply of gold is never used up and creates a glut as it grows. They say that unlike oil that is consumed, gold holdings have become a stockpile that refining cannot use up. I bet these guys would have also sold their oil reserves in the mid 70s also.
Where they miss the boat is in their assumption that people will get enough gold. Not if it's money, they won't! People do consume money just like oil, rather it's just
in the form of "savings consumption". Gold, just like money has an "unlimited demand". Again, have you ever seen anyone that said "I have too much money and have no more use for it". "No, don't give me any more of that cash, I've got a glut of it now, go away"! Yea, right!
Often, we read where people say, "oh what am I to do with all this gold if it hits, $30,000?". Funny how Bill Gates never says "what am I to do with all these MS shares". Well, you too will act like anyone with to much cash or assets, just stash it away until you need to spend it. The old "what will I do with all this high priced gold I can't get change for" logic just doesn't compute when dealing in reality?
Ever see someone in a flea market rolling around a cart full of $100 bills,,,and frantically trying to unload it because it buys so much and they can't get change? Help me out here, am I not seeing something?
I'm afraid that even the very poorest of people have a better grasp of spending and saving value than some of the "big time investors" present about gold. "
Hope this helps,
Aquilus
Hello there everyone. Am new. From down-under. Been here for a while but not commented before. Am R'ing TFB (still - taking a while) partly because I am also reading and watching all sorts of other stuff - but all finance, economics and policy/strategy related.
Since this is an Open Forum I wanted to ask what do all think of Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed? Is he the best option to replace Ben Bernanke? I found his recent speech refreshing.
http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs130116.cfm
Cheers
Hey TristramBoris,
I'm familiar with Mr Perkins work. I've read his Hitman book and watched several speeches he's given. I think he's fairly credible and speaks a lot of truth.
You may have misinterpreted what I was saying. The point I was trying to make was that having state-run enterprises in charge of extracting resources is not as efficient as having private companies do it. And that implementing such policies ensures stagnation in an economy.
I'm fully on board with governments determining which foreign companies are allowed to do business in their country. Many gold mining companies who venture into these countries are relatively small outfits who are trying to do legitimate business, not necessarily multinationals who are in league with the CIA. Deciding which companies are allowed to come in and setting up a system where royalties are paid to the government is much better than having a state run outfit doing a shit job of extracting the resources. That's all I was trying to say.
Sorry if I offended, but if you've noticed, I have a habit of calling a spade a spade. And if some country is a third world shithole, I have no qualms about saying so. Since most third world shitholes are bribe-ocracies regarding their domestic dealings as well as their international dealings, I tend to believe this is a a two-way street and not just the Western nations taking advantage of poorer countries. Ultimately it's up to the elected leaders (a reflection of the people) to stand up to multinationals/CIA who want to pillage and plunder their country. If Perkins is to be believed and the alternative is the West labels them enemies and wages war against them, then they should go out in a blaze of glory while standing their ground. But doing so doesn't stop them from allowing certain private companies that have legitimate intentions to extract the resources that lie within the borders of that country.
RJ
Aquilus
Well said. Thanks for the explanation
Woland,
I had not heard that story about Fukishima. Thanks! It underscores the value that Japanese place on liquidity and control.
Biju,
Thanks for your analysis of the impact of government policy in India. You're writing is fine. Easily understood and that is all that matters.
It's always good to see that any ol' Random Guy likes your comment :) (BTW: nice to see you post comments finally)
It would also help if I read my stream-of-consciousness comment before posting it, so it makes some sense. Therefore:
Do more of them allocate or get out of the market why prices are good?
should really read:
Do more of them allocate or get out of the market while prices are good?
Good night all
I have 20 mins of internet left, stuck in a McD's while wifey maxes out the credit cards. Might reread the HI posts, my idea of fun.
Anyone remember the "silver bears" video a few years ago about maxing out credit cards on gold and burying it? I wonder if it's ever been done... I think were about to max out on....clothes etc.
Hi MIA,
Stay around, this place rocks :-)
Does anyone know which stock exchange al-Qaeda is listed on?
Obviously the most successful organisation the world has ever seen.
They operate from no known country. They have unlimited supplies of arms. They have millions of recruits. Nobody can find their headquarters. They don't rely on taxation to fund themselves. They lose the odd battle but are never defeated. They are represented in every country throughout the World (according to the mainstream press)
RJP said in the 3rd world "Ultimately it's up to the elected leaders (a reflection of the people) to stand up to multinationals/CIA who want to pillage and plunder their country." You said a lot, but then there's what's also closer to home:
Nixon and gold and DOD Office of Net Assessment, and Andrew W Marshall ("Yoda") the guy behind it all you've heard the least of from 1973 arranging things all through to the here and now at age 92 at the same Pentagon desk featuring several mad nuclear gaming mis-underestimate close shaves from 83, "Revolution in Military Affairs", "Disaster Capitalism", "Air-Sea Battle", "Strategic Pivot", and now, quoting from "Gold Buying Spree: All that Pivots is Gold", by Pepe Escobar:
"To quote the immortal line in Dashiell Hammett’s The Maltese Falcon, as filmed by John Huston, “Let’s talk about the black bird” – let’s talk about a mysterious bird made out of gold. Oh yes, because this is a film noir worthy of Dashiell Hammett – involving the Pentagon, Beijing, shadow wars, pivoting and a lot of gold...
Let’s start with Beijing’s official position; “We don’t have enough gold”... that brings us to that famous pivoting to Asia – which was supposed to be the number one geopolitical theme of the Obama 2.0 administration...
And we did not even mention the non-pivoting involved in this noir plot; the Obama 2.0 administration keeping its appalling embrace of the medieval House of Saud and...
Play it again, Sam. In that outstanding Maltese Falcon scene at the start of our plot between Humphrey Bogart (let’s say he plays the Pentagon) and Sydney Greenstreet (let’s say he plays Beijing), the official is the goon, the third guy in the picture. The pivoting to Asia is essentially a product of Andrew Marshall, an allegedly Yoda-like totem of US national security.
Marshall has been behind the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) – all of you Donald Rumsfeld freaks know about it – failed Shock and Awe (which only served to destroy Iraq almost beyond repair, even with disaster capitalism involved); and now the concept called Air Sea Battle...
So even as David Petraeus-style counterinsurgency has pivoted to John Brennan’s CIA shadow wars, the real deal is the pivoting to Asia; a pseudo-strategy, concocted to keep the Pentagon budget at exorbitant levels, promoting a new cold war with China. “They will never amass enough gold to impose their evil plans”, one could hear Marshall say about China (without Bogart or Greenstreet’s aplomb, of course). Hammett would be appalled; Marshall’s Maltese Falcon is the stuff (war) dreams are made of." ( http://www.globalresearch.ca/gold-buying-spree-all-that-pivots-is-gold/5321271 )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Marshall_(foreign_policy_strategist)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Ogarkov
When was it that others say another set out on the path, but as a giant?
"A third phase began in the early 1990s...
PLA scholars at the Academy of Military Science in Beijing began learning all they could from American think-tanks... In a meeting with The Economist at the Academy, General Chen Zhou, the main author of the four most recent defence white papers, said: “We studied RMA exhaustively. Our great hero was Andy Marshall in the Pentagon [the powerful head of the Office of Net Assessment who was known as the Pentagon's futurist-in-chief]. We translated every word he wrote.” http://www.economist.com/node/21552193?fsrc=nlw%7Chig%7C4-5-2012%7C1303226%7C36310463
Graeme
Posting here seems not to be without difficulty. What's the easiest way... do you all join somehow?
Supplemental to previous post: I stumbled on this line a couple days ago. I'm worried, very worried. Googling this requires time and much contextual discrimination. You won't get much on Yoda, let alone Yoda and his 40 years and counting with gold etc, I think, but I'd like to know if you do! Here's a taste of what is out there:
http://dailycaller.com/2011/07/11/meet-andrew-marshall-the-unknown-but-immensely-influential-figure-behind-american-national-security-strategy/
http://info.japantimes.co.jp/text/rc20120101a2.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/what-is-air-sea-battle/2012/08/01/gJQAlGr7PX_graphic.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-model-for-a-future-war-fans-tensions-with-china-and-inside-pentagon/2012/08/01/gJQAC6F8PX_story.html
http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1212
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_in_Military_Affairs
Some are thinking:
https://theconversation.edu.au/fencing-australia-in-the-asian-century-10812
http://theconversation.edu.au/us-joint-facilities-are-a-threat-to-the-national-interest-10775
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100022332/a-new-gold-standard-is-being-born/
Something else to think on:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100015016/greece-and-the-melian-dialogue-of-thucydides-obscure/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melian_dialogue
@Unknown - Legendary!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xV6p0n6dayg
RJ
no offence taken! Perkins had some very interesting, albeit brief, comments towards the end of that book about foreign states withdrawing support for the dollar.
TB
RJP: As you know this blog is more international than most. Your calling "third world shit " is like - my wife may be ugly, but it you tell that in front of me, I will not like it and have some reaction.
RJP : Also if you start throwing "shit" around , others also know to how to throw some "shit" in your direction also. No one is flawless.
Biju,
I invite you to come see where I live. You'll see more shacks, shanties, trailer parks, and toothless, illiterate, piss-ignorant rednecks than you can shake a stick at. If some place is a shithole, I have no problem acknowledging it, regardless of where it is on a map. Even when it's in my own backyard.
It's just semantics. I was only trying to point out certain policies that perpetuate economic stagnation, albeit with a little colorful language. Please don't take much of what I say very seriously, and if you do, don't get your panties in a wad over it.
Thanks,
RJP
Shithole, USA
http://postimage.org/image/agp18zjrp/
Here's a thought exercise.
In the UK there is Capital Gains Tax exemption for Gold Sovereigns. Ignoring this I decide to buy each month Gold Mexican 50 Pesos all dated 1947. I do this for several years. I then decide to sell some of my Mexican coins. How does the government distinguish between the coins purchased recently and the coins bought at a very low price several years before? How can they base their CGT?
Is CGT just a red-herring.
You can file the following under "best of MF".
At ZeroHedge, I repeated by argument that the US will not confiscate the European gold (nor will they illegally lease or swap it out). Then:
Börjesson: All well and good, but that doesn't really answer the question. Why the seven years? Presumably, since the Germans have such leverage, they're only letting it take so long because they want to. But why? If the gold is really there, then why not just ship it over and have done with it?
VtC: Cause it doesn't matter. The US government cannot afford to cheat, and so why care?
Recall that the Bundesbank shipped some 930 tonnes from London to Frankfurt in 2000 and 2001, and they didn't tell anyone for a decade (it came out last fall when they published where their gold is stored).
So if they now make a fuss about 50 tonnes, then the point is the fuss rather than the 50 tonnes, no?
MF: What possible action could the bundesbank have taken that would invite more notice and speculation. The only other is asking for everything immediately...but that would crash the gold market immediately and they would be blamed. This is a nice strategic move.
Germany : We only asked for a little gold, you can't blame us.
ROW : Wth..hyperventilating.
Germany #winning
Börjesson: Why would asking for immediate delivery of all the gold crash the gold market, assuming that it's actually there in the NY vaults and not leased to anyone? The Germans already own the gold, so nothing changes ownership, it's just a matter of transport logistics. Right?
Now if the gold WASN'T there anymore, if asking for it all back would force the US to go buy some in the open market, or else mine it pdq, THEN I can see why it might have an effect on the markets. Is that your position?
MF: Because of the panic it would create. It would show an extreme lack of trust at international level between some of teh most powerful entities that exist.
To others it would imply that the Bundesbank knows something they dont ( true most of the time anyways) and perhaps expect imminent collapse. That will send others scrambling for gold, even if there was no reason for panic (and the huge paper gold versus rela gold ratio is reason enough for panic NOW).
That would break the market. Even though the Bundesbank would get every ounce from the Fed, just this action of asking will break things.
Victor
If our resident barber plays a banjo, winner winner chicken dinner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etn1w0U9wbE
Following the MF / VTC logic, I don't understand why Bunde asked for a personal inspection of the Fed gold, only to have the inspection denied (unless that request was never actually made and is instead a bunch of BS).
That just doesn't jive with the implied understanding of a mutual, cooperative "calming maneuver" among member banks.
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