tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post2715184834224061606..comments2024-03-17T07:55:12.096-07:00Comments on FOFOA: All Paper is STILL a short position on goldFOFOAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comBlogger60125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-31466846081942532112010-12-24T06:16:07.081-08:002010-12-24T06:16:07.081-08:00Heya FOFOA
Heh
Exter's pyramid. A interestin...Heya FOFOA<br /><br />Heh<br /><br />Exter's pyramid. A interesting thing. <br /><br />One of my views : it is essentially a estimate of risk. The higher you go, the more risk. In times of crisis, people want less risk.. so they go down the pyramid. but since the pyramid is bigger at the top(leveraged), every level below is too small to hold the level above. Some people jump one level at a Motley Foolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06902761012772262091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-51188220663671104142009-08-31T17:18:48.593-07:002009-08-31T17:18:48.593-07:00Awesome post but this one is a bit shorter and exp...Awesome post but this one is a bit shorter and expresses our Utility as I have a bent of mind to Austrian. Genesis chapter 47<br />Remember in regard to your great post that many people like me rather know bread cannnot come from stones but work and we feel it our right to avert socialism since debt is a future claim on labor and not a right to anothers economy. Gatekeeper has his duty. Some giveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-52401498331690786392009-07-15T13:23:08.541-07:002009-07-15T13:23:08.541-07:00And indeed it was a foolish thing, as well as dish...<i>And indeed it was a foolish thing, as well as dishonest, to hoard up more than he could make use of. If he gave away a part to any body else, so that it perished not uselesly in his possession, these he also made use of. And if he also bartered away plums, that would have rotted in a week, for nuts that would last good for his eating a whole year, he did no injury; he wasted not the common FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-35811378902170331652009-07-15T13:22:23.859-07:002009-07-15T13:22:23.859-07:00Hello JT,
What makes gold the base of the pyramid...Hello JT,<br /><br />What makes gold the base of the pyramid is that it is widely distributed as THE monetary metal. Look no farther than this Wikipedia page to see it. <br /><br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_reserves" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_reserves"</a> <br /><br /><i>Foreign exchange reserves (also called Forex reserves) FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-7421962563330947712009-07-15T09:36:16.293-07:002009-07-15T09:36:16.293-07:00This was an incredible post. I have been trying t...This was an incredible post. I have been trying to figure out the deflation/inflation argument for as long as I can remember. I've recently come to a similar conclusion in my mind (ie asset deflation / price inflation), but this really helped me understand it better. <br /><br />I'm starting to think that it doesn't make sense to talk about 'price inflation'. All goods JThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07495362906762987594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-26139899076923293662009-04-30T14:28:00.000-07:002009-04-30T14:28:00.000-07:00I just came to your comment under Eric's post. I s...I just came to your comment under Eric's post. I see you have already been there and left your mark!FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-25841749836517488412009-04-30T14:10:00.000-07:002009-04-30T14:10:00.000-07:00Hello Martijn,
I believe that the FDIC will ultim...Hello Martijn,<br /><br />I believe that the FDIC will ultimately be backed by blatant printing, as will almost every Pension Fund in America. And that this "cure" will be far worse than the disease.<br /><br />This is exactly where we are heading right now. The road there is already paved.<br /><br />I believe that the government's decision of whether or not to back the FDIC and the Pension FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-17000896007159180982009-04-30T13:38:00.000-07:002009-04-30T13:38:00.000-07:00I agree on the inflation, I would not be surprised...I agree on the inflation, I would not be surprised if the downward trend continues next week.<br /><br />You are very correct in saying that the judgement of money will be made by those offering what we need in exchange for it.<br /><br />Feteke is quite correct saying the the FIDC is totally worthless in any scenario that it would be called to the rescue. It's mainly psychological. Right now it Martijnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10691085642452851905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-89966598639627499572009-04-29T10:41:00.000-07:002009-04-29T10:41:00.000-07:00Hi Martijn,
I really really don't thing the marke...Hi Martijn,<br /><br />I really really don't thing the market rally is based on inflation expectations. Perhaps it SHOULD be based on inflation, but I really think it is not. My main reasoning is that if it was, it would show up first in different sectors than it is. During an inflation when the economy is contracting (stagflation like the 70's), there are many things that do much better than FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-46124547982717599332009-04-29T05:36:00.000-07:002009-04-29T05:36:00.000-07:00Btw, I wonder whether the current rise in the mark...Btw, I wonder whether the current rise in the market does not indicate inflation already. The economy is still shrinking, companies are declining in value, but the market goes up. I am however aware of the fact that markets often show countertrend corrections, so there is absolutely no certainty that inflation kicked in already.Martijnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10691085642452851905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-50447635582560118682009-04-29T05:29:00.000-07:002009-04-29T05:29:00.000-07:00FOFOA
What Luskin fails to see is the difference ...FOFOA<br /><br />What Luskin fails to see is the difference between asset deflation and monetary deflation (the real deflation).<br />As we've talked about loans and bringing in the future, a loan is basically a mortgage with the future as collateral. What we are seeing now is that the collateral is not worth what is was supposed to be, and hence the value of the loans is shrinking.<br /><br />Martijnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10691085642452851905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-723571946190236802009-04-28T14:43:00.000-07:002009-04-28T14:43:00.000-07:00Martijn,
I think you will enjoy this interview wi...Martijn,<br /><br />I think you will enjoy <A HREF="http://seekingalpha.com/article/133589-donald-luskin-gold-and-the-upside-down-bell-curve" REL="nofollow">this interview with Donald Luskin</A>. While I think he is wrong in a lot of what he says, he is still very smart and worth considering. And he uses some of the imagery and concepts we have been discussing here. <br /><br />FOFOAFOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-29271694551678783562009-04-28T12:59:00.000-07:002009-04-28T12:59:00.000-07:00Correct. And luckily indeed the world does not see...Correct. And luckily indeed the world does not seem to be falling apart that much for now.Martijnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10691085642452851905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-54125866341410019342009-04-28T12:33:00.000-07:002009-04-28T12:33:00.000-07:00This is true! If the world was going to end in a ...This is true! If the world was going to end in a week, you wouldn't have any use for gold.<br /><br />But if only <I>you</I> were going to die in a week, you might still have a use for gold. To pass on your excess wealth to someone else who would live on.FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-91546704435858493812009-04-28T12:25:00.000-07:002009-04-28T12:25:00.000-07:00My point was indeed that the "real" bottom of the ...My point was indeed that the "real" bottom of the pyramid would remove time from the equation and only focus on the "now". That would matches your concept that gold is the "bottom" of all savings, as savings include a "time value".Martijnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10691085642452851905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-45774837755863489572009-04-28T12:10:00.000-07:002009-04-28T12:10:00.000-07:00Martijn,
Actually, I maintain that gold is still ...Martijn,<br /><br />Actually, I maintain that gold is still the bottom of the inverse pyramid. But remember, capital flow into gold is savings, it is not that which you need to survive today and tomorrow. I would put food and stuff like that just above gold. Because on an individual level, only so much capital can flow into that, and then the rest will flow down into gold, like your river FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-35772254585633372692009-04-28T11:52:00.000-07:002009-04-28T11:52:00.000-07:00FOFOA
On the topic of credit we seem to agree.
A...FOFOA<br /><br />On the topic of credit we seem to agree.<br /><br />About commodities I am not so sure. What I ment to say is that in history we first "had" commodities and only later started to use money - whatever that was at that time.<br />For some reasons gold emerged as the material deemed most able to fulfill a monetary function, and perhaps today gold has little or no commodity function Martijnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10691085642452851905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-34453572948256023332009-04-28T10:26:00.000-07:002009-04-28T10:26:00.000-07:00Martijn,
You say, "but it's monetairy value/use s...Martijn,<br /><br />You say, <I>"but it's monetairy value/use should be seen on top of it being a commodity."</I> <br /> <br />To me, this sounds like the view of someone who has been "brainwashed" by 38 years of propaganda. (since 1971)<br /><br />A commodity is a real item (not a paper product), in a limited supply, with some sort of an economic use other than monetary. This distinguishes FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-80569451947362823762009-04-28T09:55:00.000-07:002009-04-28T09:55:00.000-07:00To my undderstanding commodities "came" before mon...To my undderstanding commodities "came" before money in our evolution. I might agree with you that gold has emerged from commodity to money, but it's monetairy value/use should be seen on top of it being a commodity.<br />We first worked for our selves (maybe not alone but in groups), then started bartering, and only then "invented" money. The value you attach to gold is based on it's historic Martijnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10691085642452851905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-64682429218800855972009-04-28T09:13:00.000-07:002009-04-28T09:13:00.000-07:00Martijn,
I think he put commodities up in the top...Martijn,<br /><br />I think he put commodities up in the top as an "investment class". Notice the groupings are gold, then money, then usury, then investments. <br /><br />You say, "of the entire list commodoties and gold have the most in common"<br /><br />This is the point. Gold is money, not a commodity. But the CB's have tried to shove gold up with the commodities, to convince the sheepleFOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-2878390758691144032009-04-28T04:52:00.000-07:002009-04-28T04:52:00.000-07:00@FOFOA
Credit is essentially the ability to pull ...@FOFOA<br /><br /><I>Credit is essentially the ability to pull future capital into the present</I>.<br /><br />Perhaps, but not entirely true. Basically credit swops present capital from one party to another in exchange for trust that the other party in the future will repay it.<br /><br />So in a sense future capital is pulled in, although in real life it remains impossible to create future Martijnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10691085642452851905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-8264246515867884182009-04-28T04:33:00.000-07:002009-04-28T04:33:00.000-07:00@FOFOA
How would you explain that the pyramid lis...@FOFOA<br /><br />How would you explain that the pyramid lists commodities at almost the top level, while of the entire list commodoties and gold have the most in common?Martijnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10691085642452851905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-61202378732710516522009-03-29T14:52:00.000-07:002009-03-29T14:52:00.000-07:00Jim Sinclair on a similar subject...The Guarino ar...Jim Sinclair on a similar subject...<BR/><BR/><I>The Guarino article on Black Scholes model, derivatives in general and market forecast stands on a premise that is totally incorrect.<BR/><BR/>This article can be characterized as the “Black Hole” thesis. It says that all the bailout funds disappear into some loss entity within the balance sheet of the losing side of the derivative.<BR/><BR/>If FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-35495589357598098682009-03-27T16:25:00.000-07:002009-03-27T16:25:00.000-07:00Hi Jan,The only way I can see credits becoming cre...Hi Jan,<BR/><BR/>The only way I can see credits becoming credible again is if they acknowledge the foundation on which they stand. And in essence, that will be the same thing as freegold. <BR/><BR/>In one case, the common man will force freegold into existence and kill the credits system. In the other case, the credits will "come to Jesus" at the last minute before death and embrace their FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-19734242943956825302009-03-27T16:02:00.000-07:002009-03-27T16:02:00.000-07:00FOFOA,Thanks for the comment. I can see how you go...FOFOA,<BR/>Thanks for the comment. I can see how you got to your point. Yet, there are still a number of ways the deflationistas might be proven right : the hurry down the pyramid (or the ladder) could end where credit gets "credible" again, without ever touching the gold layer. This way, yet another generation might grow up without discovering the true nature of money (a lot of the gold upside old europeanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06095192358081595952noreply@blogger.com