tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post8337136984961042676..comments2024-03-17T07:55:12.096-07:00Comments on FOFOA: Superorganism Open ForumFOFOAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comBlogger150125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-51800612028846746932012-02-13T19:39:36.672-08:002012-02-13T19:39:36.672-08:00JR,
thanks for the article on Rickards. So he cer...JR,<br /><br />thanks for the article on Rickards. So he certainly knows much more about the OTC market than any one of us.<br /><br />TF,<br /><br />I have no idea about a better estimate. The problem is that the question of how much gold will be for sale, depends on many details from political stabilityto economic prospects.<br /><br />VictorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-31872076677479160472012-02-13T19:35:43.070-08:002012-02-13T19:35:43.070-08:00Concerning possible gold trading by the US governm...Concerning possible gold trading by the US government, I have a following question.<br /><br />Mortymer alerted me to some documents from the BoE that they offered not only "gold loco swaps", but also "gold quality swaps": <br /><br />http://archive.treasury.gov.uk/docs/2001/eea2802_glossary.html<br /><br /><b>Gold loco swap</b> <i>exchange of gold in one location for gold in Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-12150916372583328802012-02-13T18:51:22.076-08:002012-02-13T18:51:22.076-08:00I appreciate the analogy but I'm going to crap...I appreciate the analogy but I'm going to crap all over it just like that bastard invasive species does on the vineyards. Little fuckers.Robert LeRoy Parkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10590421224681538226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-72871415735172097522012-02-13T18:39:11.160-08:002012-02-13T18:39:11.160-08:00ephemeral_reality,
Incredible video. Thank you.ephemeral_reality,<br /><br />Incredible video. Thank you.costatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-43515676213464235522012-02-13T17:47:16.545-08:002012-02-13T17:47:16.545-08:00Nobody had mentioned this concept so I'll chim...Nobody had mentioned this concept so I'll chime in here:<br /><br />Murmuration.<br /><br />Check out this <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/11/starling-flock/" rel="nofollow">link</a> for the amazingly breathtaking Starling Murmuration video.<br /><br /><i> The closest fit to equations describing starling flock patterns come from the literature of “criticality,” of crystal Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-52686965103742599632012-02-13T14:07:08.432-08:002012-02-13T14:07:08.432-08:00Dolt, I think LTCM was a limited partnership not a...Dolt, I think LTCM was a limited partnership not a corporation but the same idea applies regardless of the business form.JRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16345441084565082627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-68768199894863471772012-02-13T13:52:04.687-08:002012-02-13T13:52:04.687-08:00Yeah, as the g.c. he was the corporation's chi...Yeah, as the g.c. he was the corporation's chief lawyer and in charge of overseeing the corporations legal issues, which included its legal dealings with its creditors and the USG to resolve the entity's insolvency and avoid a bankruptcy filing and asset liquidation. LTCM's collapse was generally about its inability to meets its contractual obligations to its creditors, which were JRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16345441084565082627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-20576424019111600242012-02-13T13:39:46.619-08:002012-02-13T13:39:46.619-08:00Rickards was chief negotiator for the g.c. accordi...Rickards was chief negotiator for the g.c. according to Wikipedia.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-50941078570933745532012-02-13T12:34:44.098-08:002012-02-13T12:34:44.098-08:00Article mentioning Rickards' role as g.c. for ...<a href="http://www.docstoc.com/docs/27535620/Rickards-Interview" rel="nofollow">Article mentioning Rickards' role as g.c. for LTCM</a>JRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16345441084565082627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-39907734339204976682012-02-13T12:32:37.348-08:002012-02-13T12:32:37.348-08:00M,
I don't think anyone who actually trades o...M,<br /><br />I don't think anyone who actually trades options, uses the Black-Scholes formula much. This is because it models European options, but the ones that are traded are predominantly American options (except SPX which has European ones I think).<br /><br />Also if you are making a market for options, you can see whether there is some arbitrage opportunity and lock it in even without Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-22684032906367353722012-02-13T12:27:58.894-08:002012-02-13T12:27:58.894-08:00Can you confirm 'chief counsel'? I just re...Can you confirm 'chief counsel'? I just remember he was (one of) the lawyer(s) who negotiated the bailout.<br /><br />He actually said something along the lines of "LTCM was never short gold". The rumour had been that they were short 400 tonnes at that time - perhaps the true reason for the Fed sponsored bailout. But I think I remember Another alluded to the case a couple of Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-37816996595546808582012-02-13T12:11:17.471-08:002012-02-13T12:11:17.471-08:00"These guys are not our friends."
And g..."These guys are not our friends."<br /><br />And guess which, ahem, amigo was LTCM's chief counsel? <br /><br />Jim Rickards.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-74956492578381888752012-02-13T11:49:26.254-08:002012-02-13T11:49:26.254-08:00@ Victor
I am aware that futures and options have...@ Victor<br /><br />I am aware that futures and options have been around since the 1600's. But Black-Scholes became the dominant equation. And it all came together at that time when gold went from money to commodity. I personally think that the LTCM collapse looks good on the monetarists and the Chicago school who came up with Black-Scholes. It led to the Greespan put. These guys are not our Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-72372401193842878032012-02-13T11:23:12.600-08:002012-02-13T11:23:12.600-08:00M,
Gold futures are relatively new (1973) because...M,<br /><br />Gold futures are relatively new (1973) because before 1973 nobody in the US was allowed to own gold or, even earlier, gold was currency, and so there was no need for gold futures.<br /><br />The origin of the futures market is that of agricultural commodities, say kettle or wheat. The purpose of the futures market is to allow the producers to hedge their harvest/production and to Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-6495294566392279262012-02-13T10:49:11.731-08:002012-02-13T10:49:11.731-08:00Black-Scholes was introduced in 1973 and the first...Black-Scholes was introduced in 1973 and the first gold futures contract was introduced in 1974. I wonder in Black-Scholes was a creation of the $IMFS..It seemed like a convenient time to have a monopoly on derivatives pricing.<br /><br />Scholes went on to create a greatly successful hedge fund named LONG TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-16166464401441161752012-02-13T05:56:46.573-08:002012-02-13T05:56:46.573-08:00Hi Victor,
Here is some info on 400 oz bars in th...Hi Victor,<br /><br />Here is some info on 400 oz bars in the NY Fed Vault:<br /><br /><i>As of early 2008, the Fed’s vault contained roughly<br />216 million troy ounces of gold (1 troy oz. is 1.1 times<br />as heavy as the avoirdupois ounce, with which we are<br />more familiar), representing about 22 percent of the<br />world’s official monetary gold reserves. At the time, the<br />vault’s JRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16345441084565082627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-14102851809001520292012-02-13T05:35:27.491-08:002012-02-13T05:35:27.491-08:00Victorthecleaner's OUTSTANDING dissertation ca...Victorthecleaner's OUTSTANDING dissertation called The Many Values of Gold! has appeared<br /><br />on Jesse's Café Américain Matières à Réflexion<br /><br /><a rel="nofollow">http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/</a>LDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01409097419271248562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-44590842747034283492012-02-13T04:28:11.514-08:002012-02-13T04:28:11.514-08:00VtC
Ok. So you think my speculation is wrong, and...VtC<br /><br />Ok. So you think my speculation is wrong, and see it as 20 across the board. I can live with that. :P<br /><br />Your other comment is valid as well. One should rather be looking at paper versus marginal flow gold. But. That makes me wonder. How much of the 170,000 tonnes could be said to be marginal gold? <br /><br />Of the private 100,000 tonnes perhaps 5000 (and that is very Motley Foolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06902761012772262091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-87504028821093986552012-02-13T02:07:32.556-08:002012-02-13T02:07:32.556-08:00Victor (and others who have responded to my questi...Victor (and others who have responded to my question),<br /><br />I have not read nearly enough to speculate on what may have happened in the past. You all know much more gold history than I do. Whether supplies have come from the UST or elsewhere, the critical question to me is the likelihood of somehow using UST gold in the future "to save the system" as a matter of "national Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06440125454817518056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-77084452634757430272012-02-12T22:15:41.983-08:002012-02-12T22:15:41.983-08:00correction to my previous posting. I wrote
and pe...correction to my previous posting. I wrote<br /><br /><i>and people deposit physical for bank credit - well, theoretically - in real life nobody is that stupid</i><br /><br />I should have written <br /><br /><i>- in real life only mining companies are that stupid.</i><br /><br />VictorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-6417953872944021622012-02-12T22:02:24.508-08:002012-02-12T22:02:24.508-08:00Victor,
The IMF did sell gold in 1999 but claimed...Victor,<br /><br />The IMF did sell gold in 1999 but claimed to have a repo attached or something or another. Here is the first press release.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/nb/1999/nb9986.htm" rel="nofollow">Link</a><br /><br />The poor countries explanation is crap. Printing presses are used for such purposes.<br /><br />Here is FOA's somewhat convoluted response Robert LeRoy Parkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10590421224681538226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-22927720511183859102012-02-12T21:49:38.357-08:002012-02-12T21:49:38.357-08:00MF,
I still owe you a reply to your 2-part postin...MF,<br /><br />I still owe you a reply to your 2-part posting of February 9, 2012 4:54 AM (comments to the previous FOFOA article). You wrote<br /><br /><i>Working with the official figure of 170,000 metric tonnes in existence, we know the following. Around 30,000 tonnes is on CB books officially; the various funds (GLD, goldmoney, etc) hold perhaps 10,000 tonnes; Comex has about 12 million Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-72843199057255101892012-02-12T21:45:03.810-08:002012-02-12T21:45:03.810-08:00VtC,
I have a scheduled tour of the NYFB gold vau...VtC,<br /><br />I have a scheduled tour of the NYFB gold vault this week, I'll let you know about the bar type.Victoryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05302781562606354091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-15057200976805854692012-02-12T21:27:12.390-08:002012-02-12T21:27:12.390-08:00Hello Friends,
60 Minutes did an excellent segmen...Hello Friends,<br /><br />60 Minutes did an excellent segment on India's Gold tonight. I highly recommend it:<br /><br />http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7398482n&tag=contentBody;storyMediaBoxRJPadavonahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16571203673706820886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490468598422095060.post-72184904774111332372012-02-12T21:10:48.370-08:002012-02-12T21:10:48.370-08:00Hi Bogey,
Here are some ideas:
"Now, in the...Hi Bogey,<br /><br />Here are some ideas:<br /><br />"<i>Now, in the 2000s, dishoarding coming from the rising price which is coaxing new gold out of the hands of private parties for whatever reason (bubble talk, "profit" taking, etc). It seems the Western public is just searching for an excuse to sell their gold.</i>"<br /><br />Or maybe even more the Western public is JRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16345441084565082627noreply@blogger.com