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181 comments:
What is the purpose of this article in FT ???
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7c0f5014-628c-11de-b1c9-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
FOFOA,
Apologies for the garbled txt in previous thread. The question is if there were to be some brokered Bretton Woods like accord with gold as part of the mix, fractional in other words, what would be the implication for gold price relative to current levels? Say it was 25% of the bucket, would price change?
For sure, the US will fight until the end to preserve in some form or fashion it s franking benefit under the guise of flexibility to respond to crisis. Rest of world on other hand has made clear that is not acceptable. Is there a middle ground that could see the US cede control without demolishing the system but would preserve the incumbanant structure (opaque to the masses) but dilute the US?
@Anon,
Has this been sliped thru the filter or deliberately placed? If that is so, speculating on the profound essence comes in mind.
@FOFOA,
Seems this guy has some deep frustrations, hope he sleeps better now.
@S,
"Is there a middle ground that could see the US cede control without demolishing the system but would preserve the incumbanant structure (opaque to the masses) but dilute the US?"
Could the kool & the goat be spared? (Imho the goat is almost dead)
Anon,
That article feels like a warning shot to me. Maybe saying "back off"? I do not know enough about Rothchild to know what they should "back off" from. Do you?
Shanti,
That guy has become a bit of a sensation. I would say he has become a surrogate for the frustration a lot of people feel right now. He is a "sign" of the times. One of his recent videos has 114,000 views.
What is kool and the goat?
S,
I think it is too late for an agreement. I think it would never come in time. The closest thing we have right now is the talk of SDRs which will take years, maybe a decade.
I don't see a gold standard coming. Perhaps a gold standard would be a good thing, but I don't see it being in the cards. What matters is what WILL be, not what should be.
This is very interesting. Jim Sinclair is a very devout gold follower. Gold has been his life since the 1970's and he has held many a high place in the gold world.
For years now Jim has been repeating his mantra which goes something like this... Gold is going to $1,650 by Jan. 14, 2011 at which point Paul Volker will enact the "Federal Reserve Gold Certificate ratio, modernized and revitalized", and gold will trade from then on within a narrow band of maybe $200.
Of course, this is one of Jim's predictions I question the most. But something interesting has happened in 2009. Jim's repetitive mantra has changed. For a decade his target price for gold has been $1,650. But in 2009 something changed.
Jim began saying publicly on his website that gold would go to $1,650 AND THEN ON TO ALF'S NUMBER.
Then this changed a little when Martin Armstrong came out with a medium term gold target of $5,000. Jim started saying gold would go to $1,650, then to Armstrong's $5,000, and then on to Alf's number.
Well, Alf's number is between $10,000 and $20,000 per ounce. I have also read a post by someone who saw Jim speak in Toronto and said that his new target price for gold is $17,000, but that he won't put that in writing.
What happened??
And how does this "change of heart" affect his "Federal Reserve Gold Certificate ratio, modernized and revitalized" theory??
Well, in May he added to that statement...
"I have written to you various times about the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate ratio, modernized and revitalized, which now may well be associated with an SDR form of an International Central Bank. The tie between the ratio and gold would be a measure of international liquidity considered zero or 100 on the day of adoption."
Again, I still have a problem with this prediction. But what I am looking at is the evolution of a fine mind in the gold world. And what is driving this evolution!
I believe that Jim's inclination toward this prediction stems from his personal experience in the early 80's. He was involved with the Fed (Paul Volker) in the workout of the Hunt Brothers. During that time he likely had many conversations with Volker.
"From 1981 to 1984, Mr. Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volker."
So what happened in 2009 that caused Jim to raise his target price from $1,650 to $17,000, and to switch his focus from the Fed and Paul Volker to "an SDR" and "an International Central Bank"???
Could Jim's view evolve even more?
Perhaps to Freegold?
There is one more statement by Jim that I find intriguing because it sounds a lot like ANOTHER. He wrote this yesterday...
"The most popular question I receive on a daily basis is to comment on the gold to silver ratio.
Here is my answer and promise to you:
As pressure to deliver gold hits the COMEX exchange in the last quarter of 2009 with titanic force, the ratio trades will totally explode, killing the gold to silver spread traders.
With gold to silver ratios you are not buying insurance, you are a gambleholic buying decimation."
Remember, we are not PRESCRIBING Freegold, we are OBSERVING the evolution! Big difference. It matters not what SHOULD be, but what WILL be.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
@ FOFOA : The Rothschild left the London goldfixing when the secretive LBMA went public. I intrepreted this as the end of the oil-gold arbitrage.
But I can't find a link between the FT article associating slavery with the Roths and their pull out of the fixing and/or other gold involvements at present.
Let us simply put the article on our hard disk memory for later.
@ FOFOA : Jim S.
Yes, Jim's thinking evolved from $-gold-standard (fixed goldprice) much closer to freegold,...at the moment he stopped bashing the euro (crap).
Maybe he started noticing (taking serious) the ECB's MTM,...which he still doesn't want to mention for understandable reasons ?
Silver : No CB is holding/dealing silver reserves ! Why then must the silverprice (industrial metal) remain frozen together with the goldprice ? The silverprice governance is part of the "expectations" game : The poor man's gold must also confirm (make believe) that the $ is king. Making silver running in tandem with gold produces the perception that gold (the CB reserve) is not running free as freegold wealth.
The old correlation between platinum and gold ($100) was much more difficult to maintain.
Nobody questions why gold-silver-platinum are all 3 in the controlling program trading whilst CBs only hold gold ?
The $-system hates the freegold idea (ECB's MTM) and therefore keeps it in a triumvirate.
Does USA 2009 = Argentina 2001? Part I: Falling economy reaches terminal velocity
by Eric Janszen
SNIPS
"Argentina broke several laws in the year 2001 and paid dearly for it. The U.S. between mid 2008 and 2009 broke more than one economic law, aggressively flaunted others, and is on the verge of breaking several more. We cannot accept uncritically the conceit that U.S. geopolitical advantages give our economy a permanent get out of jail free card. Thresholds of tolerance may be exceeded, we just don’t know exactly where they are. We are getting close if Chinese officials are openly discussing alternatives, and this airing of grievances is in fact part of the leading edge of the "Poom" process as in Argentina in the period before the actual crisis...
The Argentine peso, un-pegged from the U.S. dollar, collapsed by 73% in a few months, and over the next two years inflation wiped out savings and erased all debts.
The bond market disintegrated.
A U.S. bond crisis will never get this bad, but then it doesn’t need to for bond holders to lose most of their money."
And interestingly, Janszen says that if Bernanke tries "to pull a Volker" this will assure a hyperinflation...
"If Bernanke pulled a Volcker today, raising interest rates and cutting the money supply, he’d launch a process to send the U.S. economy into a hyperinflation."
My only difference with Janszen is that I see hyperinflation either way. Either too much printing and stimulus spooks foreigners or too high interest rates collapse the economies' ability to service the debt. The thing is, we are already there... just waiting for the first domino to fall.
"All government debt and currency crises are rooted in runaway fiscal deficits. Each nation has its own threshold, depending on trade balance, size and composition of external debt, currency reserves, and other factors. Argentina’s threshold in 2001 was 3% of GDP...
Compared to the U.S. projected fiscal deficit of 12.3% in 2009, Argentina’s government spending in 2001 was austere."
I also note that M1 dipped right before hyperinflation hit Argentina. Just like it is doing here. At the same time as the monetary base is doubled. Stacks of "cash" sitting in the vault doubling while "the people's money" declines.
"You might think that before Argentina’s economy blew up in a hyperinflationary conflagration that the central bank over-expanded the money supply leading to high inflation, and that the inflation spooked foreign investors. But as you may have already guessed from the first chart that shows negative and falling CPI going into the crisis, the opposite is true: the money supply fell in the year leading up to the crisis even as bond prices fell and yields increased."
Remember, money SUPPLY is M1 and monetary BASE is M0, and they are not the same thing. M1 does not include the excess reserves held at the Fed which are the same as cash.
Hyperinflation hit Argentina right after M1 fell, which is one of the deflationists "strongest" arguments.
See also my post Argentina's Economic Collapse which has a great video.
FOFOA
Interesting Telegraph article :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/5625921/ECB-favours-underground-press-over-helicopter-drop.html
Why pulling the attention on the difference (FED/ECB) ?
What is the real clue in the competition between $-FED and €-ECB in the floating currency arena ? Freegold !?
Did anyone notice that the €-bashing stopped since 2007 ?
Argentina parallel : It all suggests that Armstrong's phase transition (exponential move) is coming closer.
Don't let the €-ECB weaken the $-index (40 yrs supportive maginotline 80) !
In times of severe Crisis perceptions can tumble fast and furious (exponentially).
And the beat (green shoots) goes on (FT-snip) :
For all the numerous initiatives by the authorities in the US and Europe, the value of much toxic paper in the system is still uncertain. Moves to soften mark-to-market accounting rules, which required assets to be written down to realistic values, have raised the risk of creating “zombie” banks that live on despite being insolvent. That was the syndrome that gave Japan its lost economic decade.
Perhaps most worrying of all, it looks as though the political will to secure a strong regulatory response to the crisis is waning. The Obama administration’s reform proposals last week shuffled institutional deckchairs and gave more power to the Federal Reserve despite its signal failure to do its regulatory stuff during the credit bubble. There were worthy plans for this and that. Yet the result of all the bail-outs and mergers is still a higher degree of concentration in banking, which does nothing to mitigate the systemic threat from outfits that are too big or too interconnected to fail.
The likes of JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs will continue to reap fat profits from opaque over-the-counter trade in credit default swaps and other derivatives. The stronger banks, while preparing to release themselves, from government guarantees, are bent on pursuing business models that are not dramatically different from those they adopted before they foundered.
The SEC needs your feedback
"...Zero Hedge will filter the data and forward our work product directly to appropriate Attorney General offices and local FBI branch offices. In retrospect, approaching the SEC and FINRA is futile, as they are both as much an integral part of the system as the perpetrators they are supposed to protect against. We're slowly learning that fact. And we are very, very pissed off..."
FOFOA,
The comment on the comex delays (clusterstock) and the reception of bars with different serial numbers begs the question of where is there left to run. the Swiss were in the market pursuing their own debasement this week. The BOE is dead set on "leading" the debasement effort. We know the story in the US.
London Banker - who had his own blog, and comments on RGE, has said repeatedly he would only invest in a country whose central bank demonstrated some form of discipline - Germany seems to fit that profile, though its tacit endoresment of hgiher deficits and the ECB liquidity pump make take the shine off.
There is really no where else to hide. It is not a coincidence that the US and the OECD have been so aggressive with tax havens like Lux, Switz, Caymans etc. The smaller swiss private banks will simply not do business with Americans anymore. The trapping of capital has already begun.
The exits are being chained. Jim sinlcair, whom i am not all that familiar with, was publiczed last week for saying something to the effect if you haven't moved your money don;t try now. Erie statement but consistent with the notion of int'l banks simply not interested in US assets, the UBS effect.
There truly is nowhere to run.
If the silver gold ratio goes into the hundreds the first thing ill do with my new gold wealth is buy silver.
Anonymous,
I do not care what you do with your wealth. You can load up on MOUNTAINS of silver if you want. At least you will not be supporting the dollar!! :) But I offer you these OLD posts (not from me... not from A/FOA) as a means to study what I have found to be useful...
"It's a shame that the "Paranoid...Gold and Silver Trader" in your post has not troubled himself to learn a thing or two about our historical experiences with bimetallism. Gaining that awareness of our past might help him avoid costly misjudgements (for example his comment, "In the long run I'm expecting silver to go to 15 to 1 with gold...") and thereby help him to better utilize his resources. He seems not to have come away with the important lesson that evolution in USE of a thing is the driver of its value.
History shows that silver (value ratio) dropped significantly in the past 100+ years during Phase One of the gold-reserve evolution (rise to prominence). It is suffering blindness to reality if one imagines for even a moment that a further plunge in the silver value ratio isn't equally inevitable as gold is now poised to enter Phase Two of its reserve-usage evolution.
I offer this not to be nettlesome, but under the same philosophy that teaching a man to fish is better than giving him one -- or rather watching him starve, as the case may be. Given that we all have limited resources, it is in our best interest to use them wisely, and devoting significant money for a personal stockpile of silver is a sorry state of affairs, something like fishing in a cat's litterbox."
"Bringing up bimetallism out of the clear blue was unmistakably my own doing, to serve a purpose -- specifically because that bit of history does indeed offer an important insight into evolution of USE and VALUE that largely looks to be completely forgotten, neglected or misunderstood by these various "15:1" folks.
I'm not at all saying silver won't rise in price as the various currencies depreciate at their various rates, however I AM saying that silver will fall much farther behind gold in the price-ratio equation as gold moves yet further into the latter phase of the reserve evolution.
Fractional Bimetallism >>> IOU-Notionalism >>> Goldmetallism
I predict you will more easily see things aligned my way in a scant four years hence from this day."
"respectfully I submit to you a homework assignment...
Please familiarize yourself thoroughly with the so-called "Crime of 1873", and see if that doesn't change your tune.
The long calm rational view doesn't see this as a "crime", as the silverbugs claim, but rather as another step in a long evolutionary process by which the role of gold travels a colorful Trail along with which we now approach its final, fateful powerful consolidation of both personal and national (CB) wealth.
On a price performance basis, during the time ahead silver will be left behind like buggy whips even as it was following the "That's Life (not crime) of 1873".
At the risk of boring you with repetition, I'll say again nonetheless, you will ignore this to your financial disadvantage."
Last word about silver : W.Buffet - B. Gates, were "used" to encourage the general public to chose silver over gold.
Two (privileged) billionaires chosing the poor man's gold !?
Fofoa,
As I try understanding Another I have an idea that the skyrocketing gold prices will only apply in relation with the dollar, so that the euro gold price, (as the euro won't weaken so much due to the policy of BIS) will settle at about 6000. Did I get this wrong? Would the ratio silver/gold would be at 15/1 in EMU? Did I understand it correctly, that the POG will be different in every currency as to the productivity of the region/country where it is to be paid for? To put it plain, how is to be paid for gold in euro, rouble, krona? Of course silver will never reach a very high price as it will not have to fulfill the role of gold, but in Europe might be interesting to know what ratio would be settled between them because both prices are supressed.BTW who might have been Another and FOA? How might have get to those insights? Curiosity killed the cat...
Thank you
Fauvi
Hello Fauvi,
Freegold and hyperinflation are two separate beasts. They have similarities. They will have affects on each other. But they are two separate shows that I think are both coming to a theatre near you. A double feature if you will.
Freegold without currency collapse or hyperinflation would appear as hyperinflation ONLY in gold, but nothing else. If this happened first, currency collapse could be avoided. I have written posts on this subject. Freegold actually IS the vaccine to this crisis. But if it is not allowed to be the cure, it will instead be the afterlife, along with a dead dollar and maybe other dead fiat currencies, maybe even ALL fiat currencies.
Many writers, not aware of Freegold, have written about this cure. A super high value of gold being the solution to the crisis. Here is one. Here is a followup article.
In Freegold there will be no G/S ratio. Just like there is no Euro/Corn ratio, or VanGogh/Copper ratio.
Gold will have the same value relative to other real things all over the world. It will not be gold that varies, but fiat currencies that fluctuate around gold.
Who are Another and FOA? I do not know. But I think Another knew what he was talking about.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
A portion of The Privateer was posted on Hartgeld.com. Hat tip Shanti on Goud.com forum...
PRIVATEER - GLOBAL ALERT
Just as The Privateer goes to press, a new development has exploded on the world scene. On June 23, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its first ever offer of UNLIMITED one-year funds! The ECB has only done something like this once before, in a single ECB operation back in December 2007 when the world’s international payments system seized up. Then, Europe decided that this time, their internal payments system would not be allowed to freeze up as it did back in the early 1930s.
This Starts The Global Credit Crisis - Mark II:
Across the Atlantic in the US, the FDIC was the first cab off the rank in response. The FDIC said it will be guaranteeing $US 700 Billion of the debt of about 7,100 US banks and institutions in its transaction account program. Banks, including the biggest US lenders, can now tap UNLIMITED coverage by paying 10 cents per $US 100 on customers’ deposits. The FDIC has $US 13 Billion left of its own funds.
A Global Privateer Financial Appreciation:
What the ECB did back in December 2007 was a reaction to financial events which made the world’s international payments system seize up. The ECB hammered 348 Billion ($US 485 Billion) straight into the European payments system so that all the other financial participants could make or receive payments. This was a “one-off”! But now, the ECB has done it, again - on a scale which vastly exceeds what it did back in December 2007. This is not a “one-off”. This time, it is supplying unlimited funds for a year!
Continued...
Part 2...
Measuring Possible Magnitudes:
The problem which the ECB sees rolling over the world horizon has to be of a near similar magnitude in size. Why otherwise open its doors again for unlimited funds? Further, why would the ECB keep its doors open for the issuance of these funds for a full year if the ECB did not expect this approaching world crisis to last for at least this length of time? Searching for answers to this, The Privateer can only use similar historical instances. The first of these has to be a gargantuan bankruptcy of a pillar of the western world’s huge “money center” banks. The second of historical instance has to be a debt default by one of the western world’s major governments! The third has to be a combined political and economic disaster. An example of this is when France refused to roll-over its loans to Austria’s Credit Anstalt in the late 1920s and then demanded repayment of its past loans. That demand brought the Credit Anstalt down. The Credit Anstalt, in a desperate attempt to get the funds and to repay France, called in its own loans to German commercial banks, in the process causing a fast sequence of bank failures across Germany. In the early 1930s, western banks recoiled in horror from each other. They all started to recall their own short-term loans from each other while refusing to make any new loans. The entire western world’s international payments system broke down as the banks failed in their thousands all across the world. With this offer of unlimited funds, the ECB has acted to try to prevent a similar sequence, at least inside the Euro region. The European payment system will therefore survive - for at least another year. But, if the crisis foreseen by the ECB is a debt default by a big government, then the global final outcome becomes extremely doubtful. It will be the present lenders to the default government which will take the full hit, their loans made to it all being worthless. Their finances and payments systems might not be able to handle that. If they can’t, then the whole world could face a sequence of national debt defaults. These are exceptional and dangerous times. Central bank interest rates are at or near zero worldwide and budget deficits are exploding as is government debt because of the deficits. In principle, only two outcomes lie ahead. The budgets can be brought back into near balance and national bankruptcies avoided - or - the budget deficits roll on until the governments default on their debts.
Austria??? Raiffeisen??
I think it's coming nearer?!
Fofoa, excuse me for coming back with questions. As Larry explains it, it means for me that savers worldwide are screwed and borrowers including govt's may pay 10% up to x% by devaluation of all currencies.
Would their debts be reevaluted in the new units? And what would there be the advantage for Freegold? Wouldn't that be just another fiat currency up until the next reset? The only advantage would be for the countries with high deficits and for individuals with debts. And China will be happy with this? And what about Saudis and their oil/gold agreement? The gold transfer for oil will have to go on? For how long, until there is no more gold in non-producing economies or no more oil.As to the very ethic pax americana - itwill remain on stage, yes? Is it this way?
I've kept reading your posts from last year...of course the questions about Another were rethoric. What irritates me is his language - so cryptic - as you say - useless actually as the subject itself is so gigantically cryptic/difficult for non-economists. I have some passages I absolutely cannot understand. Except 9/11 and Iraq what might have stopped the avalanche 2000?
Thanks
Fauvi
Hi Fauvi,
Don't bother focusing too hard on Larry's article. My point in showing it to you was that this idea is out there in many forms.
"Would their debts be reevaluted in the new units?"
No, the point of an internal devaluation (engineered devaluation) is to rescue the debtors. The savers (in paper) get decimated.
"And what would there be the advantage for Freegold?"
In Larry's piece gold is the tool used to devalue the dollar against. The advantage for gold owners is an overnight upward price revaluation. There are disadvantages for Freegold as I see it, but not to worry, Larry's idea is unlikely.
"Wouldn't that be just another fiat currency up until the next reset?"
If you really think about Larry's "plan", it would probably unleash Freegold on the world. In other words, gold would get away from them (as a fiat), and NOT to the downside.
"The only advantage would be for the countries with high deficits and for individuals with debts. And China will be happy with this?"
Yes. China will probably not be happy with an internal (US engineered) devaluation. Let's say China holds $1T in dollars and 1200 tonnes of gold. Today that is worth $1T + $36B (in gold). Under Larry's INTERNAL devaluation the $1T becomes $100B and the $36B becomes $360B. That would be a net decrease in value of $576B.
But if an EXTERNAL devaluation happens along with Freegold, China could instead see NET GAIN of $1T to $3T in today's dollars!
This is letting go of the dollar value (which is currently overvalued) and assuming the new gold value as a wealth reserve (which is currently undervalued).
"And what about Saudis and their oil/gold agreement?"
It appears that this arrangement fell apart in 1997 when the LBMA was forced to go public with what was once secret.
"The gold transfer for oil will have to go on?"
The Saudis will be perfectly happy to receive much LESS gold for oil once gold is revalued!!
"For how long, until there is no more gold in non-producing economies or no more oil."
Remember Another said, "If the current price of oil doesn't change soon we will no doubt run out of gold." What he meant was the price of oil in gold. Right now the price of oil is too high in gold.
"As to the very ethic pax americana - it will remain on stage, yes? Is it this way?"
It is possible this is a way. But do you think they are smart enough to figure this out? I don't think so.
"Except 9/11 and Iraq what might have stopped the avalanche 2000?"
Perhaps Freegold is actually being planned!? Perhaps the architects were not yet ready, so they supported the system? There are many possibilities.
As for the cryptic messages of Another... Imagine you knew secrets you could not tell without causing yourself problems. How would you go about sharing them with others?
FOFOA
Where is the Gold....
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-lewis/wheres-the-gold_b_216896.html
"In April, delivery notices were sent on a whopping 1.5 million ounces of gold, against 2.5 million ounces of dealer inventory. That month, Deutsche Bank alone delivered 850,000 ounces. This coincided, rather suspiciously, with a sale of 1.14 million ounces of gold by the European Central Bank that month, suggesting that Deutsche Bank was being bailed out in a big way. Nothing of this size turned up in the warehouse reports. Nothing followed similarly large deliveries in December 2008. By Comex rules, all physical deliveries must go through the warehouse. What happened? Until investors receive an explanation from the exchange, which has thus far been silent, we must regard it as being very suspicious. Very, very suspicious.
Fekete on Backwardation
Eric de Carbonnel has also been adressing this HP-article and some others on gold shortages.
A "rare" (!) Rothschild appearance in 2008 on BBC !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOy5HNIKVFs&feature=related
Fekete : Exactly what A/FOA were already describing in 2000.
Goldmetal delivery-times to private accumulators (via banks and dealers) in the EU increased (gradually) tenfold since 1999/2001. Still increasing together with the spreads on spot goldprices (from 1% to 8%).
It all started with the bullion coins and has now reached the kilo bars.
If there is any link with the Rotschild & C° dynasties is up to you.
Max Keiser does have a plan to reignite the US:
My runner up idea to get America 2.0 going is legalization of online gambling. Nothing takes the sting out of falling wages, lost jobs, broke Medicare and Medicaid, busted social security and watching states go bust like 72 hours of bleary eyed blackjack and Johnny Black in front of a computer screen sitting in your underwear. The government could hire a new economic team headed up by Nobel prize winning behavioural economists brought in from the casino industry who will adjust the nation’s win-ratio for online slot machines based on algorithms tied to Prozac sales.
Snip :
The dollar’s status as a reserve currency is being questioned," said Benedikt Germanier, a foreign-exchange strategist in Stamford, Connecticut at UBS, the second-largest currency trader. "There are reasons to sell the dollar."
Switzerland is at economic war with the US.
I agree that the dollar does not look good at all - they let Lehman collaps to create liquidity shortages and dollar demand to hide that - but I would also be extra careful in interpreting Swiss-related statements on the US.
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank for International Settlements said there’s a risk central banks will raise interest rates and withdraw emergency liquidity too late, triggering inflation.
>>> BIS/ECB have been seriously warning already since 2004.
But in vain !
W'll just have to wait for the moment that BIS/ECB have to come up with structural reform proposals on G-20 level. When time is ripe...
FOFOA,
How much do you know about Jim Sinclair. Does the name Seligmann ring a bell to you?
Just found this:
...My father is Bertram J. Seligman. From simple observation and a study of history, I believe he was the greatest trader that ever lived. Yes, greater than Jesse Livermore who befriended Bert because of his talent.
Bert traded like an old master painted. He used to trade 10% of the NYSE's volume and ended the day with a 500 share position. He taught me to trade from as far back as I can remember. I sat beside him in the car, in the office, and in the house.
We failed miserably as father and son but succeeded beyond anyone's wildest imagination as partners. He was also a business man. He financed the first movies in aircraft via 'In-flight Motion Pictures, Inc.' He put the first refrigeration device in trucks via 'Thermo King Inc.'
A partner of Smith Barney who ran its trading department had inadvertently become a controlling shareholder in a small company and called Bert when the company asked him to lower his position. Bert took on the man's entire position and control of the company and went on to promote Dr. Land's new camera. The company eventually became Polaroid and Dr. Land visited my home on several occasions..
...He was also a partner in deals and trading operations with Jesse Livermore, Old man Kennedy and Arthur Cowen. He invented what is today called the NASDAQ.
At my request, he left me totally out of any financial or material inheritance, having given me more than that: the knowledge to spot value in businesses and - more importantly - how to trade for a living.
I was in a trading department when I was 12 years old. At 19, I was an over-the-counter market maker maintaining 35 markets. That is the training and qualification you need to handle huge margin positions.
During the entire gold market, I never got a margin call - not because I never made a mistake but rather because I margined myself and if a call was pending I liquidated my holdings before the close of that trading day.
I am trained to be a survivor in a battle that takes no prisoners. You may not be. I live markets day and night. I come from the lineage of Jesse Seligman and a famous banking family.
Now you will love this. The Cartel of Common interest is comprised largely of Seligman firms. Yes, my ancestors founded them all except Merrill. Goldman and Lehman are my family's. Many of you made fun of me when I first told you those cartel members had met their match. Well, they have. They face the bloodline of their founder and did not know it until know.
Read the book, 'Our Crowd,' by Stephen Birmingham and it's all there. Markets, metals and entrepreneurialism course through my entire body not just my blood. The market is my mistress but compared to the real life equivalent I thrive on the volatility associated with this one.
I am committed totally to markets. I love risk and feel alive only when all is committed. Absolutely nothing else in the material sense interests me. Now that I have played the material game, even that no longer interests me. Money does not interest me. I have given away much more than I have. The game interests me. The game is called building companies and trading markets.
Now I am passing my love of this business on to whoever recognizes the gift and is willing to run with it. My two youngest children have chosen to go their own routes outside the financial sphere and my eldest daughter is in my service in Africa. She is an adventurer in her own right but remains uncomfortable with the intensity I show when the bell rings which is her feminine prerogative.
For the curious, my name has been James E. Sinclair since the day I was born. My mother was Abbey's Irish Rose...
The link to the Sinclair page mentioned does not seem to work btw.
This "is" America we never thought it was !
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/28/AR2009062802955.html?hpid=topnews
Hi Martijn!
Your post makes me feel very uncomfortabe about J. Sinclair! The discussion in forum too. I do not rely on his observations as long as I have other, but I would not say he does not influence me. What is your opinion on that? Are his afirmations to be trusted or he's manipulating anything?
Thanks
Fauvi
* UNPROTECTED * investors (and their loses) WGC
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/tbd/temp/WGCYouGov.pdf
@Fauvi
Only just came across it and posted it here. So for I have not made up my mind as I have not yet found the time to digg into it further.
Personally I do read Sinclair, but my decision to invest on gold is based on a rather broad range of arguments, not solitary on Sinclair.
As far as his site is concerned I generally find his posts rather reasonable, although he has been predicting gold to go up for a very long time and has not always been accurate.
The discussion I linked has a less satisfying feeling indeed.
One thing it has reminded me off so far is to keep thinking for yourself, and never to go blindly on advise of others.
Of course, Martijn.
Only it is not pleasant to have someone on your blogroll you would otherwise put on your black list. Although I guess information from exactly these people should be very valuable.I prefer acceding people I believe I have more affinities with. For example Fofoa loves cats!
Fauvi
I'm of the opinion that the article is not from Jim Sinclair, or if it is, that this is a different Jim Sinclair. The writing style, content, and statements don't fit Jim and many are 'out of the blue' statements that aren't corroberated by his site content. If this were true, I would expect a stronger parallel. They look as though they were written by different people; I'm certain they were.
I have had other sources confirm that Sinclair is from the Seligmann family.
I agree with Fauvi that it feels better having someone on the blogrol that has a more "clean" reputation.
We must off course not forget that - from what I read on his site - Jim Sinclair is likely to not only have friends. Therefore the link I posted certainly is not of assured authenticity. It could very well be a deliberate attempt at making him look bad. As for now I surely give Jim the benefit of the doubt, but I will definitely try to get some more info on this.
In general it is also quite laughable how we did not do much background check on Jim before we put him on our blogroll. I must say I still have not found the perfect balance between trusting info on face value and investing time for doing a more extended check. Remains difficult finding a way in all this info.
What about this?
Also written by another person?
http://goldismoney.info/forums/archive/index.php/t-13764.html
It proves nothing regarding his integrity...however
Fauvi
Seems to be Sinclair talking.
And regarding his integrity it does not prove much (should it really be Jim speaking in the first place). It does show however that Jim is ready to take care of himself (filling his pockets). That is somewhat different from the tone of his site, although it's not a "bad" thing. Many of his visitors seem to be somehow looking to make some money on gold going up, so do I, so does perhaps fofoa.
The Seligman link is true alright:
...Here is a lesson that I learned from my Father, Bertram J. Seligman...
Want to find more? Just enter "Seligman" in the upper left corner at the mineset website.
http://jsmineset.com/2009/06/10/in-the-news-today-219/
Well, so it is. We only need to have a closer look how willing he really is to share his undoubtly deeper insights with us...? There might not be many in his category.
Fauvi
Re: JS
I can see why that concerns some. It does not concern me.
Jim is a hundred millionaire and may even be a billionaire.
I see flaws in Jim, and this is not one of them. Not his money, his ambition nor his family ties.
With JS, it is not so important to do exactly as he says, nor to believe everything he says. He is a little crazy at times, in a crazy old man kind of way. But recognize his point of view and its uniqueness. To me, this is the value in reading his observations. In fact, his observations of the news are some of my favorites.
At times, Jim speaks in riddles, reminiscent of Another. When he does, I give his words some extra thought.
130 Day Warning
Dear Comrades In Golden Arms,
Yes, that is right. You have a little more than 130 DAYS before MOPE (management of perspective economics) falls into the abyss of loss of confidence in the US dollar.
The event will be the birth of hyperinflation in the US and elsewhere to the horror of the spin media. Crude has been trying to explain this to the public, but so far they have not gotten a clue. Crude strength is being called a hedge against the dollar as fundamental energy analysts are hard pressed to explain a rise from $30 into the $70s with NO pick up in US economic activity and NO massive draw down on supplies. The oil price is an example of the arcane and exoteric mechanism of hyperinflation soon to take gold to $1224, $1650 and then on to Alf and Armstrong's numbers. This phenomenon is something that the murderous Children of the Corn that run the hedge funds will not accept until it happens.
Happen it will.
130 days is no time at all. Are you prepared?
That part on oil is what I was saying before.
I'll have to pass this on to fofoa's favorite peak-artist.
As far as Sinclair is concerned: I tend to agree with FOFOA, but I am glad to have found this extra info that I was too blind to recognize before.
A theory on JS 130 days :
A year before the oilprice reached $145, an (fabricated) Osama tape already mentionned $144/barril.
It was AIG-London that organized the oilprice run. Madoff was involved (RT).
Then the whole $-brotherhood started shorting and took the profits again.
Maybe a second oilprice run is already on its way,...again as a hedge against the $-index breaking down its 80 maginotline.
Rising the oilprice forces all oil consumers to keep holding the (petro) dollar.
The $-FI organizes its own profit waves...to the advantage of the few and the loss for the many.
A self exhausting dynamic !
The view from the ISS
Also, there are many opportunities to see the Space Station with your naked eye as it passes overhead. The opportunities are just after sunset or just before sunrise and they are tracked by NASA. Click on this website and go to Realtime Data >> Sighting Opportunities to select your country and region. I randomly selected Netherlands for this link. It tells you when to look up, for how long it will pass over, what direction it will come from and where it will end up, as well as its peak elevation overhead...
Spaceflight.nasa.gov
"The dollar rose today for the first time in three days against the euro after China said it will not alter its foreign- currency reserves suddenly. China’s “foreign exchange reserve policy is always quite stable,” central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told reporters yesterday in Basel, Switzerland.
“The recovery is going to take time, and that puts pressure on the risk rally,” said Geoffrey Yu, a strategist in London at UBS AG, the second-biggest currency trader. Renewed demand for havens is “going to be dollar supportive,” he added, predicting it will strengthen to $1.30 per euro in three months. The currency will trade at $1.40 by the end of 2010, Ashley Davies, a UBS currency strategist in Singapore, wrote in a report today.
“You don’t have to bet on the recovery to be bullish on the dollar,” said Christoph Kind, who manages $20 billion as head of asset allocation in Frankfurt at Frankfurt-Trust Investment GmbH. “If the situation stays as bad as it is, the dollar is a safe haven. And if the economy turns the corner, the U.S. will be the first to get out of the recession. On that basis, the dollar looks like a good investment. We are buying the dollar against the yen and the euro.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=abVRzOIqXuBs
...plus extended information on oil price increase. They don't seem to believe what J.S. says.
Fauvi
Pump and Dump, Fauvi.
You must also realize that it is possible [POSSIBLE, not probable] for the USDX to remain STUCK at .80 as gold goes to the moon, oil to $300 and even as hyperinflation takes hold. The metric of currency traders is THAT flawed.
This is where JS is a little shortsighted.
Yes, gold is the antithesis of the dollar. But it is also the antithesis of ALL paper.
Hi Fofoa!
Actually he also made lately some predictions which didn'fulfill and I wonder - as he is a professional trader how can he be so shortsighted. His deep insight somestimes look like a cheap animation for non-professionals - IMVHO. I surely do not believe Bloomberg et al as I miss the fundamentals but I begin to put J.S. "beliefs" under a question mark.
Fauvi
If $-oil / $-gold rise in $-price in a stagflationarry decade,...the purchasing power of the dollar declines even when the $-index stays at 80.
All paper denominated (derivatized from) in dollar will also have less national/international buying power.
We focus much too much on infla/defla as to confuse Joe & Jane. It is about a currency's purchasing power ! And the currency as a store of wealth.
The $-index is a relative thermometer that has an impact on expectations. Idem for the stockmarket indexes : What do you buy for one share over time ? If the Dow stays where it is (flat) and one Dow unit buys less over time,...then the unchanged Dow loses purchasing power.
Wonderful pictures, Fofoa!
Make one feel so small and dust-like compare to the magnificence of "our" terra!
Fauvi
Fauvi,
You should have everyone's beliefs under a question mark. There is a WORLD of difference between trading and investing. Between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Between the short run and the long run. Most people do not get this simple fact!
JS may well be a very good professional trader. But whatever knowledge he has about it is NOT what he shares on JSMineset. His website is about preparing for something that is COMING! Something he sees and knows is coming. Just like Another.
You say his predictions did not fulfill. Neither did Another's. Another was early. So was JS. It is 1 million times better to be early than to be late.
There are commenters on this very blog who went from trading stocks into 100% physical gold in 1999!!!
Was that early?
Their net worth has gone up 3X.
And when the end comes... whenever it comes, they will be set for life!!!
What about the traders? Did they improve 3X? Will they be set for life when THE END COMES?
This is EXACTLY what Another's message was about. This is EXACTLY why I focus on Chaos Theory and Cycles.
ALL THAT MATTERS is how you are positioned at ONE SPECIFIC POINT IN TIME. Any profits lost in the meantime will be compensated for at that time, AND THEN SOME.
Jim Sinclair's message is not so different from Another's. Though I believe that Jim's advice has some flaws, driven by his personal involvement in gold mining and stocks.
In this case, the message is more important than the identity of the messenger. The fact that you know JS's identity is a bonus.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
Anon,
thank you for your explanatin. Could you please explain which other indices remain me as to recognize the evolution? Except unemployment, bonds, debt? What can I watch for to understand the direction it goes?
Thanks
Fauvi
Fofoa,
my already made investment will not change and I will dearly make it more, as I didn't get in as early. But now some things are about to change in my life, therefore I would very much like to be able to identify the situation better. I also realize the many deficit I have IN UNDERSTANDING the whole so I look for eliminating them, at least a little.
Thanks
Fauvi
Fauvi,
I hear you.
We are all in that same situation to some extent. There is the old saying, "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". This is why JS always says not to buy gold on margin. Even buying gold coins with a credit card is buying on margin. Deflationists ask hyperinflationists, "if you believe hyperinflation is coming, why aren't you ADDING to your debt??" They miss the entire point of FOFOA/A/FOA/JS and others.
It is possible to have massive deflation just before hyperinflation. Is it better to profit during the deflation or to be prepared for the hyperinflation a little too early? Think about it.
At some point the short run MUST meet the long run. At some point technicals MUST meet fundamentals. This is a simple concept.
So far at least 12 years has passed during "the long run". (actually more like 96 years, or even 233 years) I watch for signs that the long run is soon to become the short run. And I see MANY.
Just before the long run becomes the short run.... JUST PRIOR... things will seem MOST hopeless to us physical gold advocates. This is what JS means by "doubt reaching a spiritual level".
The way this period [the JUST PRIOR period] looks to the market is like the eye of the hurricane. The calm.
The hardest part about the timing of this crisis is watching others make mistakes. Watching family members that are fooled by the markets. Watching friends that are fooled by the green shoots.
What I have come to realize is that it is better to lead by example than to preach. If I find myself in the right situation, then I show others that I am not worried about the future. I am no longer in the stock market. This can lead to understanding.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
@ Fauvi : The evolving cost of living is different for each of us.
Depends how you live.
Watch the price evolution of standard stuff : Eggs - loaf of bread - Icecream - etc...
Standardise your purchasing power (budget/income) : Same/higher income minus higher taxes and price-inflation = Netto Empoverishment.
When one (a family) has to take 2-3 jobs (work harder/longer) for having the same living standard,...That means that the general purchasing power is declining.
Don't get confused about standard of living comparaisons. The old TV and the new flatscreen are both TVs.
It is the currency that keeps constantly losing PP. Regardless of the infla/defla periods.
Pensioners have to worry seriously about the fast declining PP of their savings. They will have to cut down drastically (and fast) on their lifestyle.
The bulk of pensionfunds savings are in the FI (devalueing $-paper)
All statistics about cost of living and PP for standard lifestyle are increasingly fraudulently falsified.
For the time being, the astronomical debt accumulations avoided total collapse.
We are living in a virtual world.
Today many FI miljonairs start realizing that the wealth they thought having is gone (25% of it).
That wealth (and de rest of it) never existed !
"Just before the long run becomes the short run.... JUST PRIOR... things will seem MOST hopeless to us physical gold advocates.The hardest part about the timing of this crisis is watching others make mistakes. Watching family members that are fooled by the markets. Watching friends that are fooled by the green shoots."
This artificial calm embeded in lies,which I mostly ignore as they come from Main street is getting me crazy. And then I read in your blogroll, Fofoa, and I see how helpless we all are, that nothing seems to help! Same day Ben Bankster is in front of the Congress deploying his lies and same days stock go up. Yes, manipulated but still strong.
Thanks
Fauvi
@ FOFOA : Yes the timelines of A/FOA and JS are frustrating many readers. Simply bacause many see it as a speculation and not as a preservations of their wealth.
They all want - to make money -
So where do they have to put their money ?
The absolute majority still doesn(t/can't believe/accept that drama is coming. What "is" the Systemic Crisis (Crisis of the System) ? What system ?
People are conditionned to always "profit" from it. A dead trap (end).
The psychological impact of the goldprice-behavior is ENORMOUS !
That's why A/FOA had to stop posting (answering questions).
JS has the courage (drive) to keep going. Hats off, please.
Making an honest fortune and keep it (PP) intact,... has to be earned ! Only a very small minority of privileged can steal their fortune quasi legally. Ordinarry folks have to work hard for it and stay smart. Not an easy task.
"Boring" The CALM before the storm.
Manipulation [MARKET RIGGING!] talk on CNBC !
""This market continues to be propped up by government intervention and manipulation."...
And more! From a FLOOR TRADER!
Must see video.
Confidence in the RIGGERS seems to be in crescendo!
What you must understand about manipulation is that it only works in the short run! No matter WHO is doing it.
The short run [for the PPT] is running out IMO.
The confidence SPIKE on CNBC and the bold in-your-face talk about government manipulation telegraphs that the end is very near!
By the way, be sure and watch the WHOLE video. Don't take Karl's tip and just watch the soundbyte. The floor trader has some GREAT lines later.
You say his predictions did not fulfill. Neither did Another's. Another was early. So was JS. It is 1 million times better to be early than to be late.
I agree with fofoa on this one as I also see the current financial system ending rather sooner than later.
Keep in mind however that it is never wrong to predict the end of the world as long as you don't give a date.
And indeed, the Sinclair/Seligman discussion does add to the understanding that you should put everything you read/hear under a permanent question mark as fofoa says, most of all your own beliefs.
Must see video :
Nice to see that manipulative interventions are being "normalised" ! Soon to be accepted as standard procedure...becoming common.
The investor will react with relief that the PPTs are doing a good job to protect his/her wealth in the FI. Waaaawwwww !
This is perverse...obscene. Another step in the fall of the non-empire.
And if manipulation is socially accepted and made open policy nobody is sure how long he can stay unaffected. Jobs can dissapear tomorrow, years to subsist can be long so your wealth preservation will be gone the day you will have to buy your eggs and loaves of bread or pay for education for your children, things you might have done times before without consuming the substance. Does everybody know when his Black Swan might come on the horizon? When surrounded by lies this may happen everyday.
Fauvi
Fauvi,
I think it is constructive to revisit my post The Judgement of Value to remind ourselves who really has control over the value of a dollar. It is not the currency traders. It is not the Fed. It is not Obama. It is not the PPT.
As for the Black Swan, there are MANY MANY Swans lurking and they will all have the same effect. (Stock market crash, bond market crash, currency market crash, gold market FTD, bank holiday, interbank credit/liquidity seizure, supply line seizure, sovereign default, permanent backwardation, etc., etc...)
To bet on the market RIGGERS is to bet on he who must dodge a BARRAGE of bullets.
On the other hand, to bet on the Swan, only one of the bullets has to hit the target. So bet on the beautiful Swan who controls the trigger. She is actually a White Swan because none of this is unexpected!
The RIGGERS are doing NOTHING for the Swan. And those who the RIGGERS are fooling, do not control the trigger.
FOFOA
I think FOFOA has it right when he presents that this is a fundamental shift in thinking. You aren't putting money in gold to pull it out as wealth; you're putting it in to become wealth, after which it stays there. Though you might draw from your wealth, you don't move it to a new volitile fiat currency at ANY time, nor would you downgrade it to a partial fiat (weighted basket heavy on fiat and thin on gold).
Your answer to timing might be best served by looking at the signs around you. A new job report is due Thursday... what will it contain? Bad numbers or worse numbers? Look at Option A and Option Arm which must roll, and look for a nation that will consume what the US produces, assuming it can even fire up the factories again. How about 19 states and a fed that can't balance a budget?
SHTFEOTWAWKI? A downward ratcheting effect will lead there, but I expect we're a ways off. Up and down, up a little, down more... this could go on for ages. If too many happen together, we'll see a compound black swan effect push down fast, but even that dramatic experience won't be bottom.
Sidenote: FOFOA, any chance you are skilled in Photoshop? Those gold coins are in dire need of a boob job.
Here Siege. Lady Liberty is waiting for you!
permenantly damaged, but forgiving you anyway. :)
The real crime of this manipulation is that it is preventing the people that need to prepare the most from realizing they even need to prepare. Conversely, it is allowing the insiders to sell out as the market is bought up by the taxpayer, to his own demise.
It is a double-whammy. Not only is your 401K at risk, but so is its denominator, the dollar. Either one gets decimated by reality and you're out 90%. Both... and your out 99%.
S&P trading at 100X earnings? Decimation is coming. And then the dollar. Goodbye 99%.
As paper is cut 100X, gold, its antithesis, will move equally in the opposite direction. Conservation of energy.
Not an accident
Reflecting back on the sheer volume of in your face market manipulation, combined with the strategic 'looks good here' comments from China and other slew of blatant farces, I have to ask myself, what if this was all by design?
The collapse earlier this year was forseen by few, and as a result, both smart and dumb people were caught. It wouldn't make sense to allow that collapse to be the big one; quality people might die! Instead, the powers that be could collectively orchestrate a rise, while giving the telltale signals so as to weed out the wheat from the chaff. To allow the world's fools back into the market whilst the elite find a safe exit out.
This string of manipulations is almost comical in magnitude; one must ask why it's even happening. Nobody's fooled. Or maybe nobody worth saving is fooled. Is this false recovery little more than Darwinism, enabling the sorting between those of higher thought and the microbes of humanity?
The Comex is the name for the largest gold futures market in the world, traditionally centered in New York City. Although the market recently became part of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, it has retained its old nickname. Also, the depositories which hold the actual bars of gold used to settle the futures contracts remain in New York City.
A gold depository must be the most boring business on earth. They charge a small monthly fee to store 100oz. standardized bars of gold in an insured vault. It is an industrial-sized version of a safe deposit box.
The owner of a 100oz. bar owns a specific chunk of gold. It has a manufacturer, a serial number, and an exact weight measured to the 1/100th of an ounce. A written depository receipt -- similar to an old-fashioned paper share certificate -- shows the exact date the bar entered the depository, and the entire chain of ownership since that date; they often change hands without leaving the depository. You can request to withdraw the bar from the depository, and you should receive exactly the bar indicated.
Interest in precious metals as an investment has been heating up, and some fund managers have begun to take very large positions. Demand for Comex gold bars has been increasing -- especially as they are significantly cheaper per ounce than alternatives like 1oz. bullion coins or the kilogram bars popular in Europe.
Jim Sinclair of jsmineset.com, a legendary gold trader, reported that some of his contacts have told him that, when they request to withdraw their 100oz. bars from the Comex depositories, they have not received the proper indicted bars. They received a bar, but not one with the correct serial number or weight.
Why not? One possibility is that an honest mistake was made. The high demand recently has apparently kept the depository workers very busy. Wall Street veterans recall that delivery errors were chronic in the days of paper share certificates.
Another possibility is that the bar indicated on the warehouse receipt does not actually exist. The implications of that are rather dire.
This would not be so troubling if there were not already a series of very odd things happening down at the Comex. Delivery delays have been chronic. This could be a symptom of an overworked staff. Or, it could be a purposeful stalling tactic. In any case, it should not take weeks and possibly even months, and sometimes dozen of inquiries, to get the gold you already own out of the warehouse.
The Comex itself, however, has been reporting that business at the warehouse is very slow. The daily reports of warehouse movements show almost nothing happening, day after day. So which is it, busy or not busy?
As futures contracts expire, a certain number of holders elect to pay cash to receive the physical gold. The number of delivery notices has been very high since autumn of last year. For example, in May, investors requested the delivery of 20 million ounces of silver, against a dealer inventory of about 64 million ounces. Since then, there has been no record of anywhere near that amount of silver leaving dealer inventory, being delivered into the warehouse, entering customer inventory, or leaving the warehouse. Another 17.45 million ounces of silver were requested in March, evidence of which was nowhere to be seen in the warehouse reports.
In April, delivery notices were sent on a whopping 1.5 million ounces of gold, against 2.5 million ounces of dealer inventory. That month, Deutsche Bank alone delivered 850,000 ounces. This coincided, rather suspiciously, with a sale of 1.14 million ounces of gold by the European Central Bank that month, suggesting that Deutsche Bank was being bailed out in a big way. Nothing of this size turned up in the warehouse reports. Nothing followed similarly large deliveries in December 2008. By Comex rules, all physical deliveries must go through the warehouse. What happened? Until investors receive an explanation from the exchange, which has thus far been silent, we must regard it as being very suspicious. Very, very suspicious.
What does it all mean? First, there are indications that the seller side of futures contracts (such as Deutsche Bank in April) are having a difficult time making good on their commitments. Second, the information reported by the Comex regarding physical inflows and outflows is looking more and more like a convenient fiction. Third, there is some doubt as to whether there is gold in inventory -- as there absolutely should be -- to match existing warehouse receipts. Fourth, the Comex warehouse is one of the most secure forms of gold investment in the world. If they can't be trusted, what does that say about ETFs, pooled accounts, futures, forwards, options, and all the other forms of "paper gold" out there? Fifth, if it becomes clearer that there is no physical supply to meet physical demand, the dollar price of gold could go much higher.
Thanks Mad! You should check this out too.
Eric de Carbonnel also posted on those delivery issues at comex.
Bit speculative, and I can see why Sinclair would post on this issue - he wants to clean out the comex (so do I).
30 June 2009
Saudi market regulators have barred several share dealers from trading in the local bourse and imposed heavy fines on them over manipulation as part of a new iron fist policy intended to restore discipline and confidence to the market.
The toughest anti-insider trading measures to be taken by an Arab bourse followed a recommendation by the parliament (Shura council) that the Capital Market Authority (CPA)Capital Market Authority (CPA) should severely punish those involved in manipulation or speculation in the Tadawul bourse.
Not do dismiss the topic. It might very well be true that comex is running out of physical, but it's not necessarily true.
How's the middle-east gold delivery from London going?
"In this world, individuals have less and less room to maneuver. Should the country experience another major crisis, be it another massive terrorist attack or a sudden hyperinflationary spiral, we may well see marshal law declared and the Constitution suspended. Then all bets will be off, as those in power will be able to do as they please without restriction."
http://www.newswithviews.com/Yates/steven5.htm
I think only considering gold/oil/dollars remains in status of nearsightedness. Once you swallowed the red pill you cannot vomit it out of your brains that easy. Therefore is a matter of penetrating the Matrix and be wishfull of an unexpected sooner than later blow-up as to see the long engineered plan in shables. just waiting in self content to see your genuine assets becoming powerfull will not suffice.
Fauvi
btw, i want to state for the record, i'm shocked, shocked (to find that gambling is going on in here) that there's an 8:30am (3:30am??) takedown in gold on the final trading day of the month. I mean truly...did anyone see this one coming [rolls eyes].
From another forum, posting it here for its illustrative value:
Did anyone here know that the good old MONOPOLY GAME is now played using Credit-Cards?
My kids bought the game at WalMart (Asda) in the UK last year. I didn’t realize until they opened the game that there is NO (monopoly) MONEY anymore, just a small Credit Calculator that keeps tally.
Hi Martijn!
Maybe you should read what Yates says about maths in our schools and then you'll know why their Monopoly game is so.
I did read some other stuff on education. Both in the US as in Europe.
Not so sure those programs are designed in the best interests of their attendees.
Schooling has a habit of limiting peoples sight and curbing intelligence.
Mark Twain said: I've never let my schooling interfere with my education.
Guess he nailed that down quite good.
BIS : Snips - Gold trade.
http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2009e.pdf?noframes=1
"Gold held in sight accounts with related party central banks and connected institutions totalled SDR 22,605.8 million as at 31 March 2009 (2008: SDR 27,499.7 million)."
"Off Balance sheet items: Gold bars held under earmark are included at their weight in gold (translated at the gold market price and the USD exchange rate into SDR). At 31 March 2009 gold bars held under earmark amounted to "212 tonnes of fine gold (2008: 204 tonnes)."
"The Bank transacts foreign exchange and gold on behalf of its customers, providing access to a large liquidity base in the context of, for example, regular rebalancing of reserve portfolios or major changes in reserve currency allocation. The foreign exchange services of the Bank encompass spot transactions in major currencies and Special Drawing Rights (SDR), as well as swaps, outright forwards, options and Dual Currency Deposits (DCDs). In addition, the Bank provides gold services such as sight accounts, fixed-term deposits, earmarked accounts, upgrading and refining, and transport."
"Around 90% of customer placements are denominated in currencies, with the remainder in gold."
"Gold deposits amounted to SDR 23.1 billion at end-March 2009, a decrease of SDR 6 billion over the financial year."
"In addition, the Bank owned 120 tonnes of fine gold at 31 March 2009."
"Monetary authorities acted to support economic activity by reducing interest rates to exceptionally low levels. In these conditions, the market values of government securities and the price of gold rose markedly."
"On the assets side, Management lowered exposures to, and the duration of, placements with commercial banks, while increasing investments in sovereign and quasi-sovereign assets. These actions reduced the balance sheet total and preserved the Bank’s underlying profitability, while protecting it from realising significant losses from defaults by counterparties and debt issuers. In addition to these measures, Management restricted disposals of gold during 2008/09 to five tonnes, compared with 25 tonnes sold in the previous financial year, and reduced the duration benchmark for its investment securities portfolios from four years to three."
"The realised gain of SDR 77.0 million on sales of gold investment assets during 2008/09 arose from the sale of five tonnes from the Bank’s total holdings of 125 tonnes at 31 March 2008. In 2007/08, a higher gain (SDR 293.3 million) was recorded on the sale of 25 tonnes of the Bank’s own gold."
"The gold revaluation account also increased, by SDR 152.4 million, as a result of unrealised gains (+SDR 229.4 million) resulting from the impact of the appreciating gold price in 2008/09 on the Bank’s own gold holdings, less a transfer to the profit and loss account of realised gains (–SDR 77.0 million) on the sale of five tonnes of gold referred to above."
"The remainder of the Bank’s equity is held in gold. The Bank’s own gold holdings are designated as available for sale."
"The Bank’s currency and gold deposits, principally from central banks and international institutions, comprise 91% (2008: 89%) of its total liabilities. At 31 March 2009 currency and gold deposits originated from 131 depositors (2008: 152). Within these deposits, there are significant individual customer concentrations, with seven customers each contributing in excess of 5% of the total on a settlement date basis (2008: four customers)."
"As at 31 March 2009 the Bank recorded an impairment charge of SDR 18.3 million on gold loans (2008: nil)."
Encore :
China Allows Trade Settlement in Yuan in Hong Kong (Update2)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Bob Chen
June 29 (Bloomberg) — China approved use of yuan to settle cross-border trade with Hong Kong, part of a drive to broaden the use of the currency and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.
>>> When China/Iran/Russia trade in yuan/rubble ?
This is definitely a fundamental difference with the Crisis situation in the seventies.
>>> Japan is subsidizing its major chipmaker with billions to avoid default.
Global debt orgy !
"The modern financial system is immensely complex – possibly too complex
for any one person to really understand it. Interconnections create systemic
risks that are extraordinarily difficult to figure out. The fact that things
apparently worked so well (up until the time that they did not) gave everyone
a false sense of comfort. After all, when things are going well, why rock the
boat?"
From BIS report. No comments.
Fauvi
There are 10^11 stars in the galaxy. That used to be a huge number. But it's only a hundred billion. It's less than the national deficit! We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers. ~ Richard Feynman (1918–1988) ..... and they all enlighten us in our decisions making!
Hyperinflation
This first article describes an internally sparked hyperinflation. This is the course the US is 100% committed to and why most inflation prognosticators predict hyperinflation two or three years away. The alternative is an externally sparked hyperinflation, or a run on the dollar, similar to what happened to Iceland. This can happen overnight. Sure, the Krona was many orders of magnitude smaller than the US dollar. So imagine the chaos when the dollar is dishoarded as the Krona was. On October 7th, 2008, the purchasing power of the Krona was cut in half over night and continued to fall from there. Only a fool views the largesse of the dollar as a strength. It is its greatest weakness because its value is only supported by perception management which requires constant debasement in broad daylight!
There Will Be (Hyper)Inflation
"The US Federal Reserve, for instance, increased the stock of the monetary base... from $870.9 billion in August 2008 to $1735.3 billion in January 2009.
Banks' "excess reserves"... rose from $1.9 billion to $798.2 billion. These excess reserves allow the banking sector, which operates under fractional reserves, to increase the credit and money supply manifold.
The monetary base expands when the central bank takes over the troubled assets of commercial banks in order to extend new credit to those banks. This process is gaining momentum: on March 18, 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it will increase base money by purchasing another $1,150 billion of securities. It is also considering increasing base money by extending credit to private households and small businesses."
This next article offers practical advice, mainly to businesses, for surviving hyperinflation:
Surviving Hyperinflation
"...business accounting is traditionally geared to a world where the value of the monetary unit is stable. Capital goods purchased are entered in the asset column "at cost," i.e., at the price paid for them. When the firm later sells the product, the extra inflationary gain is not really a gain at all; for it must be absorbed in purchasing the replaced capital good at a higher price. Inflation leads him to believe that he has gained extra profits when he is just able to replace capital. Hence, he will undoubtedly be tempted to consume out of these profits and thereby unwittingly consume capital as well. Thus, inflation tends at once to repress saving-investment and to cause consumption of capital."
If you think it can't happen here, just know that hyperinflation surprises everyone, everywhere it happens. And the conclusion I draw from these two articles is that it will be much worse when it happens here in the first world economy. The current power-drunk politicians (not just in the US) can be expected to implement draconian wage and price controls which will kill the workforce and empty the shelves over night.
Hyperinflation in the first world can be expected to include unemployment much HIGHER than the great depression and a complete stoppage of critical supply lines. No one is prepared, least of all the government.
Got gold, guns, ammo, food and water?
FOFOA,
AsI sit looking at the GDX and allt he miners down, I wonder how such a move in gold would be treated by the gov't. Obviously such a move up would be in direct vcontraventiojn of the gov't mandate which would mean a likely expropriation of some sort. What would stop the US from simply nationalizing the miners, thoguh comapnies like Barrick/Newmont. Would not these assets be declared in the national interest and treated accordingly?
How do you get around the fact that the miners themselves could be selling doemstic prodyution to strategic compeitors if such a regime evolved?
Consider the entire mamnnual production is something like 4 million oz or $4B. Contrast that with the $200B or so increase in M1and the $2 Trillion increase in MZM (per St Louis Fed). Is a fractionla system even possible at this rate of creation?
In short, it is true that gold hasn;t disapeered. However the spike down in dollar after the consumer ocnfidence (despite a "better" Chicago PMI) to back above the Core 80 line is to say the least curious. That said if you look at the crosses it would seem the Yen is a prime target to hold up the DXY. Yen looking like a monster short here....
S,
That is exactly what I expect. Another and FOA said the same thing. Gold in the ground becomes "the property of the people", ie. nationalized. This is why investing in mining stocks is only short term gambling, not preparation for the end of paper wealth.
In a world of Freegold, mining operations will either a.) be nationalized or b.) be taxed at 99%. The tax would be the seignorage confiscation by "the people" (the government).
FOFOA
Fofoa,
when gold will touch those levels had been spoken of, how musch will be costing a ring? Or dentistry?
Fauvi
Fauvi,
As you know, there are alternatives to gold in dentistry and jewelry. In Freegold, expect gold to evolve into its one and ONLY function, wealth reserve par excellence.
If you have been paying attention, a lot of people have been sending in gold jewelry to be melted down (Cash4Gold). Expect to see more of this as we transition to Freegold. Expect that as gold evolves into its wealth reserve function, less and less (percentage-wise) will be made into jewelry, and none will be used in dentistry.
Industrial strength electronics like hospital machinery uses gold, not for its electrical conductivity, but as a thin coating over more conductive metals. This thin coat prevents corrosion and decay, as gold is a noble metal. Expect the cost of hospital equipment to rise accordingly. Or the life expectancy of such equipment to decline.
How much will a gold ring be worth? It will be worth more than you want to wear on your finger unless you are a celebrity. So do the math.
How much will a gold tooth be worth? Enough that you will not want to add to your "dental hoard". And you may even elect to DIShoard your oral cavity!
FOFOA
FOFOA,
When the $ was completely backed by Gold, Gold mining companies were never nationalized. Why would you assume the case now?
I sincerely doubt we will ever go to 100% backed system which would mean perpetual deflation as Gold supply has peaked and will never keep up with population growth.
I think you would concur that if no additional money is printed Gold would have to to rise over $20,000 (maybe as high as $65,000) to back the USD by Gold.
Hello Mad,
When the dollar had gold backing, that meant that you could always get gold if you had dollars, right? We are never going back to a gold backed dollar. Instead we are moving ahead to OIL BACKED GOLD!
Gold will have the backing of oil! Think about this. It means that you can always get oil if you have gold!
When the printing press will no longer bring oil, the government will claim "the wealth in its soil". This is not too difficult to imagine.
Today there is paper wealth and there is gold. As it is right now, paper is the legal tender form of wealth storage and gold is relegated to lowly commodity. It is this relationship that allows for gold mining in its present form, and for YOU to own a share of it!
It is the financial industry's tangled web of contractual obligations that allows you to loan capital to a massive mining operation which sells its gold-the-commodity "in the ground" based on a future price quote from an exchange that trades contractual obligations.
"Paper the wealth reserve" as well as its "financial industry of tangled contractual obligations" is in the process of defaulting and collapsing! This transformation will elevate gold from a lowly commodity to wealth reserve. But in the process, paper wealth will prove NOT to be the real thing. This includes mining shares.
When the gold market shifts from paper to physical, the paper contractual obligations will continue trading all the way to near zero. It will be the shorting opportunity of a lifetime! ;) Then, all gold obligations will be settled with fiat at the gold-the-commodity price... wherever COMEX comes to rest!
And the gold mines will be "bought out" by the government at this lowly valuation.
"gold stocks would do well if the world would stay the same. It will not! Question, How can you dig for gold if no official exchange will quote you a price? What is in the ground may need to rest a while."
If the government decides to let the "free market" reign [yeah right], and let the mining lands remain in private hands, then comes the 99% tax.
"Gold at a much higher dollar price, as a result of oil/backing, will allow most paper economies to continue in operation. Gold will, in fact, become a "world oil currency" and be of national importance to all countries. In the same way that all oil in the middle east ( and most other major producing countries ) is nationally owned for the good of all, gold in the ground will be deemed a "currency reserve" for the good of all. During this time all other metals ( and paper investments ) will fail to hold value. Access to oil and gold will be next in line of importance behind food."
You mentioned some high valuations of gold. Here is what Another said...
"Gold will only have to be repriced once, that will be more than enough !"
"No other asset ever to exist will match the coming increase in the value of gold bullion, none."
And on irreplaceable oil being sold for paper IOUs:
"How far do you think an IOU would go if it didn't have gold in the background worth perhaps a 1,000 times it's current commodity price?"
1,000 times? When gold was $300/oz? Was he FREAKING nuts? Does he know something he's not telling us?
"Then again, I'm not in any position to know this, am I?"
Why all the cloak and dagger?
"What is "cloak and dagger"?"
"I must use another to express my knowledge, as position will not allow."
Just read page 1 (it's about 10% of the total). If you don't find it credible then read no further... and load up on CDE or SLW for the collapse!
Sincerely,
FOFOA
FOFOA,
I hardly own any mining shares. But I would not mind owning some at the right price.
Getting to his arguments....I read all of them...
Some of his points..for example regarding central banks selling Gold over a period of time rather than all together..make sense. Most of the rest seem pure delusions to me.
He was talking as if the whole world was going to tank to zero and we are going to go into bunkers and hold Gold in our hands till our last breath.
Gold is valuable for the current crisis no doubt. It will probably go quite high in the current situation. But what he was describing was some sick annihilation of the whole system. What good will 10 ounces of gold be to someone if he cannot exchange any of it for food even for a day?
He is completely wrong about the mass psychology of people. People will accept 5-7 even 9% PA inflation very easily. If you give them interest rates high enough. THAT is why Gold never went vertical during the 1980's as interest rates were Higher than the rate of inflation.While everyone was proclaiming Gold standard would make a comeback Volcker broke Gold's back by simply giving people a real rate of return versus zero for Gold.
Also his arguments about oil are completely wrong. The huge increase in oil supply from 1980's did not come only from the middle east, it came from everywhere. Simply oil supply was much much greater than demand. hence the marginal barrel kept prices low.
There was no way that they could have increased the price of oil to high level without cutting almost all of it off. Could they? Could the Saudi's do it?
Maybe. But with 6-8 Million barrels of spare capacity in the world, it would be virtually impossible. See they were exporting 6-7 Million barrels a day. A complete shut-in also could be compensated by other producers. Not to mention their asses would be blasted in 10 days by the US.
His argument loses a lot of credibility there.
Finally he truly defines what a Gold Bug is by making Gold sound like panacea for everything. I know you are close to that camp too, but seriously if Gold is such a good source of value then how come
between 1492 and 1919 with NO CENTRAL BANK to sell or depress the price of GOLD, Gold lost 90% of Its value?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_W19cxba_-ho/SbHvu4xV8jI/AAAAAAAAAA8/XdYoRsxifYk/s1600-h/600yeargold.gif
Back to the basics : Food & oil !
Gulf, Asia eye trade bloc based on food, oil
Jun 30, 2009 at 17:20
http://business.maktoob.com/20090000006605/Gulf_Asia_eye_trade_bloc_based_on_food_oil_/Article.htm
Gulf Arab states and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) moved toward building a trade bloc based on food and oil at a joint meeting of foreign ministers on Tuesday.
600 yrs goldprice chart (MS) :
How can one possibly chart the PP of gold accurately over the past 600 yrs ? Compared to what ? One gram gold buys x-calories of food (bread)?
Much more important is how the gold-wealth perceptions evolved (fluctuated) during this long period.
"Wealth" stands for much more than only PP (purchasing power).
The PP of gold-wealth has surely widely fluctuated during the past 600 yrs.
The same is happening during this past decade. We see the PP of gold rise against a lot of other items (paper non-wealth). Is this indicating that gold is again increasingly gaining wealth-status ?
Forget about the gold-PRICE ! A "price" refers to a fiat unit. PP is the buying force in an exchange of tangibles for tangibles.
We know the "price" of everything and so little about the " VALUE " of things.
Mad,
I am surprised by your read of Another. Mine is very different.
For the record, I do not consider myself a goldbug. At least I would not use that term. I would call myself a physical gold advocate, a term Another used.
But I was NOT AT ALL a goldbug when I discovered Another. I only bought my first gold coin in March '08. Prior to November '07 I had never even considered gold!
Just so you know my perspective, I took an enormous loss of paper and perceived wealth in 2007. You would be surprised to know how much. I made most of it in the previous few years, so it was not like I lost my life's savings. But it was still a devastating loss.
Anyway, I spent most of a year studying what the hell was going on.
I was taken in by some of the usual "doomers" but I never felt like they really nailed what was happening. Then I came across Another. He seemed to be describing what was happening right now, only he had done it 10 years earlier!
Like I said, if you do not find him credible, then you do not. I know that you are not alone.
I also know you spent 2008 reaping a profit as oil spiked to $140. Perhaps this explains your different POV.
You say, "He was talking as if the whole world was going to tank to zero and we are going to go into bunkers and hold Gold in our hands till our last breath."
I didn't get that at all. To me he explained WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW! I didn't read his message as doom at all. I read it as hope. Hope even for those who DON'T have gold.
You say, "People will accept 5-7 even 9% PA inflation very easily. If you give them interest rates high enough."
If you GIVE THEM? Where does this yield come from? This is the problem with fiat. It is ALWAYS flirting with zero to negative REAL return. The beauty of Freegold, as described by Another and FOA is that it FINALLY conquers this negative return... for the long run!
You say, "Volcker broke Gold's back by simply giving people a real rate of return versus zero for Gold."
Again, "giving people" !?.... from WHERE? If Volcker tried that now, according to Janszen, it would ENSURE hyperinflation very quickly. See his latest.
"Also his arguments about oil are completely wrong."
I won't argue with you about this, because you are an active Peakist! But did you read this part?...
"If you owned a commodity in the ground that had to be sold for paper currency in order to realize value what would do? Yes, the oil in the ground may last another 50+ years but will the bonds and currencies of other governments last that long? One thing you don't do is buy gold outright, it would cause it to stop trading as a commodity and start trading as money! You learned that in the late 70s. Nor do you acquire "real gold money" in any fashion that would allow a comparison of price trends ( graphs ) ! There must be a way to convert the true wealth of oil into the outright wealth of gold. We know that oil is a consumed wealth of a momentary value that is lost in the heat of fire.
The stars blink and it is oil wealth no more!
It has become "the debt of nations " now owed to you. Gold on the other hand is not a commodity as many assume, as it is truly "the wealth of nations " meant to last thru the ages! A wise oil nation can strike a deal with the paper printers and in doing so come out on top."
You say, "Finally he truly defines what a Gold Bug is by making Gold sound like panacea for everything."
Again, I didn't read it this way. Your perception... or your perspective seems so mainstream it is surprising to me. It is not the love of gold that drove Another to speak out, but the REALITY of gold. It is not what SHOULD be that matters, but what WILL be. This is the way I see it too!
And that graph you linked seems very suspect to me, even without context. It seems to be constructed around a reversion to the mean at US$310 because that's where gold was trading when the graph was made. Could a built-in bias be more obvious?
FOFOA
@Anon: Food & oil !
"Asian nations rely on the world's largest oil exporting region to secure their energy needs, while Gulf Arab states are targeting food imports and investments in farmland to secure their strategic food supply."
What? No one needs paper Benjamins??
For anyone interested in a thoughtful view on governmental and economic practices, this text is of some importance.
Please read.
Or even better, start at the beginning.
Steven Yates has some interesting observations.
Federal Reserve Bonds
Looking into it we can find heaps of theories arguing that the Fed was created by mainly European (jewish) bankers back in the day.
They are argued to still hold interests in the Fed.
Wouldn't it be possible for those bonds that were recently discovered in Italy to have belonged to any of those parties behind the Fed?
Or is this too much tin foil?
Hi Martijn!
"Tragedy and Hope" originals cost about $1500! There is evidence that these plans still work and as they seem so abstruse they are called "conspiracy". I don't have confidence we might see a better world. There is no country, gov't or system around the world to protect humanity against itself.Yates is too far away to make an impact on sheeple'beliefs and actions as keep staying busy with our Matrix! It is of abslutely no importance whom those bonds were. Nobody is asking.
Fauvi
Mad,
maybe you wish to explain while China, Russia, Venezuela need gold for? Just for fun as to have their say internationally??
Fauvi
Martijn,
The "European" not only hold "intersts in the Fed" - they hold POLITICAL POWER. They are (together with GB + English monarchy) the RULERS.Times ago I couldn't believe that, nowadays everyday I'm getting evidence on this.In Europe too.
Fauvi
@FOFOA : Your story - Physical gold advocate.
Through the decade of gold-advocacy, I learned a lot about human nature (from joe sixpack to the academics).
It was (is) all the written wisdom about human nature in practice.
The writings of A/FOA are " UNIQUE " in every sense of the word ! And now I realize why he had to speak a very cryptic language. Simply because any listener/reader pays a thousand times more attention on "how" things are being said then listening to/reading the real content.
All about the perception-thing.
"Advocating" goldmetal in possession is a hell of a job (hobby/occupation-?). It goes straight into the logic of human nature. The (real) gold-governors know this very well. They don't communicate on the web. They don't want to use cryptic language. They simply know the real power of things.
Cryptic language versus straight talk :
How does one answers the question : What are we doing in Irak/Afghanistan ?
Who is going to answer you : We steal the 3th largest world oil reserves and want safe pipelines through friendly territory !?
A/FOA could not talk about gold for years in such a straithforward way. FOA had to cover A !
Then there is the unfortunate problem with the wealth-notion for the general public. Is "wealth" (a gold bullion coin) also good for Joe/Jane sixpack ? Or is virtual paper-wealth only good enough for J/J.
Anon,
what about J. Sinclair? Is it charity/education for J/J? Any other goals for his time investing? It's so difficult to believe it's "charity", altruism. From A/FOA it's easier to accept.
Fauvi
@Fauvi
Jim will make heaps of money when the comex is cleaned out. That is his interest.
I don't think it's purely selfish, neither purely charitable.
If you are willing to believe, he identified the flaws of today's system and the negative consequences for "mankind".
He also identified a solution.
Then he aligned himself with that solution (financially) and started bringing his vision into the world to convince others.
So does fofoa.
They both stand to gain the moment their vision becomes reality. So do I.
I also try to persuade others, as I believe the vision is the right one.
Therefore, I have aligned my personal goals and gains with those of mankind, or so I believe.
Anon,
that's a positive aim. But those who are convinced might be too weak to change the game. Would the "other" let themselves be "convinced"? The game will stop by crash or evolved action. The action will come when the might will WISH it and HOW they will wish it. We are only driving on their wave hoping not to miss it when it comes ashore.
Fauvi
The game will stop by crash or evolved action.
Enough conviction will bring about a crash, a crash will bring about conviction.
We'll have to wait and see.
So goes for action
@ Fauvi : To be honest : I don't care what personally motivates the communicating gold-people. I appreciate them all for the thoughts/insights they produce/provoke.
I've learned my (survival) lessons long ago ! I always decide 100% for myself and always blame myself for the mistakes.
I pay particular attention to the questions of the gold-interested novices (newbies). They do "question" gold (gold's future) in a very thought stimulating way.
Then I do question my own (rusted)theories permanently.
No, JS (and many others) is not as altruistic as A/FOA. The FI is a jungle, dearest Fauvi. Been there, done that, for 25 years. Always as a very early contrarian.
Today, my only gold-question is : What can possibly go wrong with gold (gold's future) ? For the time being the answer remains the same : Nothing can posssibly go wrong with gold.
Argumentation : For the next decade, the purchasing power of fiat digits will permanently decrease (fast/faster). Gold will gradually (faster and faster) regain wealth status + PP over paper (& derivatives). All this thanks to the fast/faster growing debtbergs. Simple, hé mate.
Yes, I definitely don't want to miss the grand gold-finale. That's why 90% of my savings are secured with goldmetal in possession. Haven't met any other person with this kind of conviction. And I do admit that this remains somewhat frigthening.
So my first question to anyone who is so kind to advise me on investments, is : How much (%) of your fiat have you been committing to your advise ? That confuses the friendly advizer time and time again.
@ Martijn : I think that free-freer-gold will come because of the convergence of political will from all the parties involved in global structural change.
The pro AND contra gold parties who are forced by the events to become pragmatic .(Crisis=Catharsis=Change)
There is a global angst about the loss of global $-dominance. The unknown behind the $-IMFS. But angst is not going to solve the crescendo dysfunctionality of the $-system.
Anon,
me too I'm committed to 100% and will NEVER change my mind and even if I won't benefit my lifetime ... I still have hope and descendants.
My only worry about is not only when this will take place (asap would be great for all humanity!) but if there might come ANY manipulations about it, any Black Swans detrimental for the majority and beneficial for the few. Are you sure about the ways?
dearest;)
Fauvi
And one more word about catharsis. I think it should be severe enough to teach mankind a good lesson not to be forgotten for a long time.
rigorous Fauvi;)
FOFOA
Remember Lenon Honor and the King of Pop?
Here he argues that in Rihanna's Umbralla Jay-Z is predicting the economic crisis. This was in 2007.
@ Fauvi : We can only speculate on the form that the final freegold will take.
It might even not being called "freegold" ? I would prefer calling it gold-wealth-reserve as concepted by the ECB.
A "reserve" functions as a collateral. Who wants (can) to destroy a universally exchangeable collateral ...a value standard ?
The majority of small goldholders will, at a certain point, be taxed when goldmetal is exchanged for fiat. But there is no purpose in conficating or destroying this (new) basis. Real estate is taxed. And the higher RE goes in price, the more tax income and that creates more opportunity to expand the fiat base again and again.
Same goes for oil (energy) and taxes on all refined oil products.
Fiat currency will never become "real money" anymore ! Currency will continue to devalue...the more gold gains wealth status. It this this dynamic that has become unstoppable with further goldprice-freezing (fixed goldprice system).
Once the trust in the fiat system starts eroding parabolically,...there is no way back. That is exactly what the Asians are seeing/knowing.
For the time being, Westerners still believe we haven't crossed that fatal point of no return. Asians are privately convinced we did.
The architects of the ECB knew the inevitability of this breaking point.
As Eurolanders we have the advantage not living on an island (like the US). Goldmetal is an universally exchangeable tangible.
Very difficult to stop/control the flow of the precious. The pragmatists will take this into account when deciding on the modalities of freegold.
Anon,
when you speak about point of no return - what exactly do you mean by that? The permanently mounting debt of the world? The deficiency of the $-system? Confidence? The accrued power China's? I wish I could believe that the crisis was not simply engineered or if it was, that "they" had lost contol of it.
still gloomy
Fauvi
Fauvi,
Don't be to depressed, that is no good for anyone, and if you really believe in evil depression is likely to feed it.
Just relax, stick with the good guys, and wait it out. The future is always open, it can always be changed.
For an interesting film (which might not cheer you up but is worth watching) check out this one. It really is worth the time, but you are off course always free to switch it off. Just give it a try, it's interesting.
I wrote a long answer and for some reason it was not put on..
So to Summarize
1) The graph on Gold is correct.. I have researched it extensively..
http://ispeakofpeak.blogspot.com/2009/03/does-idea-that-gold-holds-value-hold.html
Some discussion is there on the above post.
2)No Bias in graph..Think about the time when it was put up. So many years of bear market had already decimated anyone having any faith in Gold. Plus it is not a mainstream chart
3)Volcker's comments..It does not matter where the fiat comes from. It is irrelevant. As long as overall money is created at a slower rate than the interest paid on the fiat Gold would remain useless.
4)Completely agree about US not being able to Increase interest rates
Guys, the links I've posten in my last two posts link to the same video by Lenon Honor.
It really is worth your time, it provides a very interesting and highly modern perspective.
I really did enjoy it, and believe it was worth my time. Therefore I really recommend watching it.
I'm not trying to spam you guys, only trying to share an insight. Please decide for yourselves what to do with this recommendation.
Mad,
These are interesting remarks!
I'll have think them over, but thanks anyway!
Volcker's comments..It does not matter where the fiat comes from. It is irrelevant. As long as overall money is created at a slower rate than the interest paid on the fiat Gold would remain useless.
Technically defendable. It does however not account for the required trust of the people using fiat money in order for it to function.
Also, recently money has been created at a rather impressive rate, while interest has been on a major dip. According to Volckners argumentation this should cause gold to regain it's use.
@ Fauvi : - Point of no return -
The globalizing $-debt driven political economy that becomes dysfunctional. No Volcker or any other cure possible. The big catch-22. Overextension of the debtloads.
Loss of confidence and other powerblocks seeing their chance to take over and profit from the same privileges that the $-system/regime was able to establisch for itself.
Of course this Crisis of the System was engineered. And in the running the engineers overplayed their hand and are losing control.
All empires make fatal mistakes. The $-system exported the rot. This $-powergame destroyed a lot of virtual wealth over the entire planet. The end of the inflationarry "americanism".
The old recipes of the past are not going to work because all systems have an expiry date.
Watch the real life job-loses ! Forget the falsified stats. Business profits increasingly shrink. When jobs and profits vanish in an overstimulated (drugged) debt-system,...the end is near.
Amen :)))
5)But I thought he implied all CBs and the world coming to an end with paper. I was arguing about that. The rest of the world will not go down at the same time. I think you would agree the rest of the world is not in as bad shape as the US.
Once the sickest die, the rest learn.
6)SA's comments are delusional in any world. With World Spare capacity exceeding their exports they would have to starve themselves to force the price higher. That might last 2 weeks, and then the US would bomb their ass (not agreeing with it, just saying what would happen).
7) About your posted comment from his site I would say even more delusional...For years during the period mentioned, SA rarely had a balanced budget. Simply they DID NOT accumulate a lot of dollars. They got dollars for oil but spent all of it. Why would they care where the dollar went in 50 years? It is only when they would have huge trade and budget surpluses that they would care.
They did not at the time when he wrote those ideas so he was completely off base.
With those piddly dollars they did accumulate they could easily buy Gold. They were beggars at the time. Would their buying push the price higher? Yes! but run their dollar reserves accumulated each year versus Gold ounces they could buy each year, and then decide if you think buying a couple of million ounces a year would push the price in the sky.
Here is the piece their resistance.
I almost fell off my chair when I read that part about SA not being able to buy enough Gold without pushing the price higher.
Here is the math which Another was incapable of doing
SA sold about 7 Million barrels a day for an average price between $10-15. Let us say about $10 was profit.
That is $70 Million a day. About $25 Billion a year.Assuming that poor country could save any of it ..which they could not..how much Gold could they buy? Remember they ran budget deficits at the time. So technically they could spend all the dollars but assuming they could "SAVE" 20% ( you will agree that is super generous) they would not be able to buy even 1% of the World's Gold at prices of $400 an ounce a year with $5 billion a year. Remember above ground Gold is growing at 2-2.5% year. So they might push the price higher but hardly in a way that Another envisions.
The math just does not add up.
@Martijn!!!
OMG!
I'm watching vid 17th! It's dreadful perversity! Is it the rape of the mankind, Martijn?? How sick? Why let us acknowledge this? Can you believe me that I've seen the beast before explanation? What DO YOU think about it, about the intentionsunderlying?
I go back to the HORROR!I am of course only stupid
horrified Fauvi
Fauvi, relax. Don't forget that you are still there. I did not mean to scare you by any means.
Why let us acknowledge this?
Knowledge will never harm you, it is a good thing to know what is out there. Just don't let it trick you into believing that you don't count; you can't be further from the truth. Just acknowledge you are still there, and still in control of yourself, your thoughts and feelings. That is all you need to know.
My take on it: it is quite well founded and certainly a very interesting perspective that I did not see by myself.
Could it be true?
Definetely.
Is it guaranteed to be true?
I can't give you that guarantee, nor can probably anyone else commenting here.
All in all I see it as a mindopener acknowledging alternative realities from what I thought real so far. By doing so it also convinced me to become even more autonomous, to really listed to myself and not be delluded easily.
Martijn,
I have to reassess/calm down. Well, I have none of these things in my household, we always hated W. Disney and Halloween, we don't watch TV (not even news)no newspapers (only online if necessary)radio has been supressed (almost)This stupid HP books - just one and that was it, my descendant is bright and loves sciences (!!!) and I keep informing her on everything. We don't participate in that, but what about the rest? The last part however reassured me a bit but I would say this video was a promess to us all, it was a menace! And it was an occult menace for the knowing! The world around is so stupid and wishful for manipulation, they are asking for it. They love their lie cocoon so that I sometimes believe they deserve what is coming. Only thre are so many innocents among!
I should thank you for the supplementary red pill...
Fauvi
I really hated hearing this song, perhaps there was indeed a reason to that.
he world around is so stupid and wishful for manipulation, they are asking for it. They love their lie cocoon so that I sometimes believe they deserve what is coming. Only thre are so many innocents among!
People deserve what's comming when deliberately making a choice. Most of those cocooned people did not make a choice I guess. As you say, there are too many innocents among.
But hey, not to worry, I find people around me opening there eyes. And even more so, I find people becoming more receptive to help in opening their eyes. Humans are not as stupid or numb as you think. I've met quite a lot of people that we might consider stupid that still somehow have a vague feeling about some things not being right instigated by their feelings. Humans can come to know of things through both thoughts and feelings. And in many cases either one of the two works good enough to send them some signals. People do receive those signals, they really do. Only many people do not know how to interpret them, and hence just try to ignore them. But underneath it is opening them in a way. With a little help they too can see.
I'm not trying to be too gloomy or occult or anything. I do not believe it is that big a deal. I only think there is a bit more going on than we initially thought. That is not really such a big thing, it only broadens the game field. The play remains the same.
Finally, when watching stuff like this, stay realistic:
a) Truth of it is never guaranteed, although some ideas might be reasonable enough to believe.
b) Don't fool yourself by believing that what you see is the complete reality. Although it might be true, it is never the complete story. Look around, see the sun shine or someone smile, or anything. There certainly is a lot of good out there too, be sure to notice it once in a while.
And be sure to maintain the goodness you have within.
Martijn, thanks for your encouragments, I will try to follow them. Most of my life I lived quite independantly in my thoughts but in the Matrix more or less, so it was quite overwhelming at a time given when I got out of it. so even if is virtual, it feels good to see that more people are coming to their day of cognition. I'd like to see more sunshine - only this year the sky is full of chemtrails (about which I had no idea until few months ago...) but I'll be seeking for other "entertainment" sources.
Fauvi
"Ramesh also said India would not accept a provision in a U.S. Congress bill which would impose trade penalties on countries who fail to cut greenhouse gas emissions."
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-GreenBusiness/idUSTRE55T65N20090630
That's a positive sign. India will not be infected with these taxes they voted for in US and EU!
Fauvi, don't be tricked into believing that all motivation is external. Goodness is inside you already, and you do have the power to decide on what to focus, what to see, and what feelings/ideas/intuition to follow. Try to listen to yourself.
Martijn, once more: thank you, I am very touched.
Fauvi
A "must" read !
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KG02Cb01.html
Anon,
that's best news!
I hardly started reading the article and I thought that must be Dr. Liu!
This is a site with all his article of AT:http://henryckliu.com/
Do you think he has any influence?
Thanks
Fauvi
Protection of the criminal irresponsibles !
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,633690,00.html
Central banks are making trillions in unusually cheap money available to banks in a bid to restore liquidity to the financial system. But institutions are not passing on the cash to their customers, choosing instead to invest it and make a fat profit.
YES Fauvi, the Liu team (!) is more a consultancy power (think tank) than an investor.
He gives a good translation about what /how Asians are thinking-acting.
He cautiously avoid talking about ONE subject : GOLD !
Wow. 41 new comments, mainly from 4 people. You will be interested to know that there are many others silently following along from such varied places as Beverly Hills and Dubai.
Mad, your comments are welcome! It is good to challenge Thoughts! I will give them some time to sink in.
I will comment more on Lenon Honor after I watch some of that video. But I will say this now from watching his MJ video. He uses the same technique as economic prognosticators in that he lays out a good case for one thing; there are deeper messages. And then he takes you (the viewer) on the leap to his interpretation of that message. These are two separate ideas woven seamlessly together. It is one thing to believe that there are deeper messages to be deciphered. It is something totally different to accept one person's interpretation. And his method is somewhat disingenuous.
From watching his first two videos, I can tell you that from my personal experiences I am 100% confident that he is NOT 100% correct in his crazy world view. So for me, that draws his entire interpretation into question. But I do agree that there are deeper messages to be had! And Mr. Honor does have some video making skillz.
The Liu piece is interesting. I received Richard Maybury's latest newsletter and in it he has an intriguing theory about the Chinese. I will put some details in a separate comment. I am curious about your thoughts on this theory.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
Anon,
I know, he never speaks about it! I discovered him in February and I couldn't believe my eyes!!! It is HISTORY hir pieces are about. That SHOULD be taught at schools! Why haven't they done it before? Waiting to become more powerful? Wasn't/ isn't too risky at the time being? The whole is a currency/geostrategical matter.
Fauvi
Okay, here is how the theory goes....
Is China ALREADY out of the dollar?
China supposedly has $2T in foreign reserves, mostly dollar denominated.
So why would they make remarks that could trigger a run on the dollar?
Perhaps they have already bailed out of the dollar in a surreptitious way over the last 15 years!
Look at the "reliability" of statistics we receive from the media. The MSM quotes Chinese statistics as if they are verifiable FACTS. But are they?
Look at history. Through the 1800's and 1900's China was invaded many times, including by Britain and the US. China is famously contemptuous of foreign governments.
It is likely that Chinese statistics are designed to generate an EFFECT, and not to reveal the truth.
Recently it is believed that China has $1.3T dollars. How did they get these? By falling for a swindle?
In the 80's, China began liberalizing. But it's population had been raised on socialism. So to the ways of the West, they were, in a word, naive.
For years the Fed pumped out dollars by the boatload and Americans used them to buy up Chinese goods.
The Chinese business model became "work hard to produce real good and sell them to a counterfeiter".
By the mid-90's, the Chinese were not so naive anymore and they realized they had been swindled.
So what would you do if you were the Chinese? You might face the fact that you cannot openly dishoard all your dollars without triggering a run on the dollar. So you would look for ways to do it on the sly.
You might set up a whole network of front companies to buy up non-dollar assets all over the world. Factories, office buildings, land, mining operations, etc... And you would pay for these assets with long term contracts denominated in dollars!
Continued...
Theory cont...
Those long term contracts would be paid for over time with the dollars YOU ALREADY HAD!
How would anyone spot this? You have one company buying a factory in one country and another company buying an office building in another. Would those two different sellers know anything about the other deal in a different country? Could they put it together and recognize the pattern of Chinese companies buying tangible assets in long term contracts denominated in US dollars?
Even if the entire $1.3T has been pledged, how would anyone know?
One suspicion Richard cites is that he has talked to many world travelers who report unexpectedly coming across Chinese signs in front of big buildings in out-of-the-way places. He wonders if translated these signs all read "End the Fed".
Outsiders cannot look at the real Chinese accounting records, so there is no way to really know what is going on inside China.
So why are they making public comments about the dollar now? Couldn't a run on the dollar affect their holdings? No. What shows up on their "public" accounting as $1.3T is not really dollars. It is the ASSETS they have purchased all over the world!
As soon as they receive a new dollar they pass it off to someone else in the form of a long term contract to buy whatever that seller is selling. It is the SELLER who is left holding the dollar bag! Not the Chinese.
A normal accounting ledger looks like this: Assets - Liabilities = Net Worth.
Perhaps the Chinese ledger works like this: Assets = Liabilities + Net Worth.
The US dollars are surreptitiously in the LIABILITIES column, and non-dollar assets are in the Net Worth column.
The occasional public statements about the dollar are a shot across Washington's bow saying "get your financial house in order or else we will reveal that we bailed out of your currency a long time ago and you'll be as dead as Rome."
Fofoa, Mad, Fauvi and others,
Time for bed here.
The gold, dollar and China stuff seems very interesting.
@Fofoa: I agree with what you say on Lenon's technique. What he does is present his interpretation. The reasonable thing to do when confronted with such an interpretation is to set up alternative hypotheses, and check for them. Then most likely you'll find multiple explainations/interpretations probable. However, on the Rihanna clips he does present an awful strong and convincing casing. Apart from arguing whether his case is true, he does deserve to be credited for finding a very strong, convincing and original view. Call it reality, call it art, it surely is worth taking notice off.
Good night, Martijn and have nice dreams!
Fofoa,
you mean the Chinese might have "gradually spent" (most)of their $s?
That they are not in danger to lose anything by now? That seems to be what J. S. lately said. They came out with their revendications only as they were sure enough not to lose anything. That means it will maybe not take very long and they will put an end to this nightmare. What are they waiting for? What other aims and constrictions do they might have regarding the American economy/administration?
Yes, thanks for your hospitality today.
Fauvi
@ Fofoa : All $-surplus producers are spending, as much and as fast as they can, in strong currency zones.
Even Corporate US buys everything they can in the same strong currency zones.
Everybody is exporting the main US export product : Dollar digits !
The creation of new $-digits now goes much faster than anyone can ever spend these digits on tangibles !
This dynamic is exactly what the $-system/regime is all about !
It is about time that this fraudulent $-system is stopped. Simply because it cannot be reversed.
And btw, the Japanese also do this.
So the $-regime is not only facing China,...but all the $-surplus producers (accumulators) on the entire globe.
The $-FI serves only one purpose : Keep those $-bergs liquid.
The true nature of the drama (Crisis of the $-System) is in fact very, very simple. But the $-myth is so enormous that everybode keeps believing it. With the exception of the Lius...
Fofoa,
they already DO what Liu suggests, didn't they already arrange multiple transactions in RNB? Venezuela, Argentina, Russia? I think they have already put up a plan and maybe they must wait for the BRI - countries which might not be quite ready. They cannot jeopardise their next partners.
Fauvi
Fauvi,
They don't have to have "spent" them if they have promised them in a contract in exchange for tangibles. The seller of the tangible takes the loss if the dollar falls in purchasing power. The Chinese just keep paying the contract in worthless dollars.
I do not know what the Chinese end game is. JS' trip to China is certainly interesting. Liu ended his piece with this...
"China only wants to denominate its bilateral trade in yuan. It has no desire in making the yuan a reserve currency for international trade in which China is not directly involved. Because of the size of the economy, the dollar will continue to serve as a preferred reserve currency, but only if the US puts its own financial house in order."
Richard Maybury ended with something along these lines...
"One thing I am VERY confident about is that some very improbable things will happen. Surprises will occur so often they will become routine...
One of the great surprises of the next decade may be the discovery that not only the Chinese, but many of the sovereign wealth funds all over the world were effectively out of the dollar long before it collapsed.
At one time or another, every country on Earth was attacked by the governments of Europe or the US.
The descendants of these victims feel no obligation to be truthful with the West.
Should we really be surprised if after all of Washington's enemies have laid off their dollars off onto someone else via a long term dollar contract, that they would trigger a run on the dollar?
Is there any more effective way to punish Washington for its hubris and bring it to its knees?
Is this why Obama has been traveling around the world apologizing?
Is he trying to head off an attack on the dollar?"
@Anon: "Everybody is exporting the main US export product : Dollar digits !"
Does that make the US the "importer of last resort" (for digits)?
Or is it "the West"? Or the FI?
Whoever is the "importer of last resort" shall first feel the dire effects.
Liquidity and currency controls are opposing forces.
To me it seems perfectly logical.
That is maybe why Brzezinski had tried to put on a G2 agreement - just in order to prevent that. I wonder how much is GB and Europe to suffer on that. Yes, about the monetary intentions in China Liu has written for a long time. They do not need a monetary supremacy as they don't seem to look for hegemony. At least that is what Liu says. They also might wish to let those pay back who were responsible for the Opium Wars. Day of reckoning for some - maybe.
I also had to think about JS trip to China and that is also highly speculative and quite possible at the same time.
Fauvi
I read somewhere recently that China and Argentina (?) were meeting in Switzerland! to work out the details of their bilateral trade agreement. I wonder if this "passing through" the $ystem still supports the dollar in some way.
Are these countries still too primitive to bypass Europe? Or is Switzerland now in their anti-$ camp? Is it even an anti-$ camp, or is it an anti-Washington camp?
Mad,
On the gold graph: good find. However, we must ask some questions.
What have been the differences in the use of gold and itś perceived value over time?
Sometimes gold was used, sometimes silver (Spain I beleive was more into silver).
Where were the data taken, in which societies, what was the relative prosperity of those societies at the time of measurement, and which classes within those societies used gold? How was that use registered? What wars were fought?
etc. etc.
So: basically it is a very interesting graph, however, many factors have been of influence on societies, their prosperity and their use of gold and money. We must make sure to have an adequate pictures of those relevant factors in order to come to a meaningful conclusion regarding the graph. Those factors can both strengthen or weaken your argument, but must be considered nonetheless
In a footnote, Maybury notes that EVERY country on Earth has been attacked by Europe or the US (the West) and all but Iran, Afghanistan, Thailand, Japan and parts of China were conquered, mostly during the European colonial period.
As far as Lenon Honor is concerned: it is hardly impossible to test his theory, and it is always rather easy to fit in any theory by selectively providing evidence. This makes it difficult to judge.
For instance: Jay-Z is presented as being related to the Rockefellers in some way and as being linked to "the dark side. However, the guy is made at least nine albums. Have they all been tested on what their message is? Is he always as occult as presented here? Etc. etc.
Doing those necessary comparisons and testing the theory in a broader field is hardly impossible for any of us to combine with a "normal life". Therefore his story, although presented rather strongly, shall probably remain "untested".
To all: I did not mean to spam the forum with this video or to annoy any of you by consuming your time. The reason I posted it was that it somehow struck a cord with me in presenting a rather different interpretation of "daily stuff" that I found interesting and wanted to share.
Perhaps this forum was not the place for such a thing. Should you agree so, please excuse me. Hopefully however those of you that did watch it were able to value as an intellectual challenge in the same way that I did.
Will China and Argentina maybe embarque on a sightseeing tour for Basel? Meeting point BIS? This Bank has a very, very occult role in the ongoing process (currency, gold, monetary unions...
Fauvi
On the general financial developments: what we are witnessing truly is a war, an economic one, a power struggle.
Some voice argue that the Fed was initially financed by Europe, and that the US in a way still is.
The broader game being played at this moment is that of the West against China.
I am not so sure the fight is really about the dollar. It is rather about a broader sense of power, the dollar is only a tool in that.
I'll need some time to write this down in a more understandable way.
But Martijn, please, you did't "waste" anybody's time! Yesterday I read in Yates, today this video - it was like a puzzle coming out and it only completed my own picture. Nr. 21 made me even happy as I saw whaaat a good educator I've been and that was a great feeling. I don' believe (hope so!) that Fofoa had felt disturbed by our presence.
Fauvi
Haha.
It remains difficult to judge. I do believe that some powers can do a lot more than we hold possible, and I also believe that we are failing to see many things that are visible to a good/trained/open minded observer.
In a very general way I can agree with the basic claims Lenon Honor makes.
As for fearing him, Bush or you: I prefer not to. Even if there is wickedness around that does not necessarily have to control my wellbeing. I think it is arguable that the only one controlling that is me.
However, I still believe that his case is rather strong and that it at least seems very possible for there to be a lot more to a video clip than we see at face value. If I were to have power and play games I would also bent stuff like that.
@Fauvi
Thanks. I have also been educated without much television, Disney and stuff like that, and I am happy for that. I guess you are on the right track, and glad I could provide you with some interesting stuff.
@ FOFOA : US importer of last resort and exporter of $-digits.
The entire world has been co-playing this game for many decades.
We all were part of the infernal $-treadmill.
Then came the euro ($-challenger) and China. Then the gold-actions started whilst the $-FI reached its top.
And now we have a global Crisis.
The global " $-game " is reaching its end. Time for an entire new dynamic. A much more multi-polar world with new power balances.
G-5 > G-8 > G-20 !
The $-story has come full circle and has become dysfunctional as the globe's engine.
And it all started with 500 million Eurolanders having no need of US$ anymore.
The US will no longer remain the importer of last resort when the Center and East of the globe develop their internal economies "without" being dominated by the $-system/regime. That is the main purpose of the EU (internal economy). Trade and capital flows will bypass the US.
Maybe the US will be re-colonized ? That's a danger that Larouche sees. That's why he remains a loyal patriot and wants to save the US by replacing the monetary system with a global $-credit system .
A/FOA : CHANGES ARE COMING !
Check this vid on manipulation of markets and program trading.
Starts at 3:43.
70% of the trade volume is FICTITIOUS
Anon, excuse me for interfering.
I hope you are right excluding Europe from this scenario. I once read the the Obama policies marginalise Old Europe. What reason do you have to believe tha the Chinese are still interested in it? Our demography is not ideal, know how will the Chinese develop by themselves, we have no raw materials, why should they "need" us? Why should we remain important for Asia? J. Rogers means we will succomb in insignificance.
Fauvi
Show me a video WITHOUT an evil message, and I am sure I can make a Lenon Honor-type film out of it.
I agree, those claims quite speculative and difficult to verify.
Seen any of the Rihanna clip btw?
Anon,
I meant the US as the importer of last resort [OF DOLLARS]. Importing the unwanted dollars everyone else is exporting. Whoever enables global liquidity must absorb those unwanted dollars. Is it the US or the whole of Europe [the $FI/System]?
Whoever absorbs [takes in] those unwanted dollars will surely experience hyperinflation of prices, no? And then they will ALSO likely put currency controls in place to prevent the OUTFLOW of those dollars, exacerbating the problem. Pure genius!
Martijn,
I did start watching that vid but paused it and I have not gotten to the [DEMONIC] Rihanna clip yet. I'll let you know my Thoughts while you are sleeping!
FOFOA
No, Fofoa,
as I took my decisions, I didn't even know half I "know" now.It was "Handeldblatt" which made me suspicious. Some articles there and the family experience guided me. It was later that I started researching and even later that I understood the lies. Intuition guided me, even if I didn't make the best bargains.It is the fundamental I try to understand and a Bilderberger I would never trust.Not even you;) I would listen to you, ask your opinion but I would make up my own mind. It was the damned Matrix to blend me before, and then I felt like abused, and I felt stupid and I hated the system. Now I'm still worried for my "descendands", I'm worried about Codex alimentarius, about wars and such.
Fauvi
Fauvi,
I found Steven Yates' article to contain some "theories" which I accept. Intuition guides me to my own personal world view. And I am open to view these various theories that are perpetuated to a most unbelievable level on the www.
But my point is that there is a world view that fits everything I see that does not require the many assumptions that the conspiracy theories require. And when you start piling conspiracy on top of conspiracy, the assumptions required grow exponentially.
There are some things happening which can be labeled as "conspiracy theories" which are nothing more than insidious trends, and the culmination of large groups of very small conspiracies. I think Steven Yates' piece does a good job pointing to a few of these.
Whether or not some of these "theories" are really true, I think it is most advantageous to personal well being, both financially and psychologically, to construct a world view requiring the LEAST amount of complex assumptions.
If you do this, and respond to it, then I believe your response will ALSO be correct against the random "theory" that may be correct.
Many things have perfectly mundane explanations, but the complex explanations have such VELOCITY on the www that we fail to even consider the mundane.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
Fofoa,
your answe goes quite abstract. Of course I'm not willing to make blunt assumption. I would not take for true anything. But speaking of concrete things like for example chemtrails or Codex alimentarius. Why are these implemented? Have you seen the Georgia guidestones? Who put them there? They didn't came by www. The history of the Fed. It is not invented. It was a complot. The PNAC it is a plot. I once read an article in an Australian newspaper about a populacy reduction programme. There was put on discussion to impose a tax of 5000Aussies for the birth of a child,then yearly 800 later on. Time online had articles about this theme, Prof. Porrit being one of Brown's advisors. an English baronness speaks about euthanasia for Alzheimer sick. What is it all about? Now are discussions about Baxter and swine flu virus. Accidents? Knowledge? Do you know anything about Deep Shield and Teller? I have now a scientific journal in front of me discussing methods to combat the methan in the air, sun exposition for the earth. And how? By silicium spread in the stratosphere from jets.These all are facts not www perceptions.
Fauvi
http://www.nowpublic.com/politics/australian-pm-rudd-meets-reality-others-want-5000-child-tax
Is this just a preview of the reaction other countries will face when the Al Gore plan to tax the world for his master plan of "saving Earth" meet reality?
PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd last night did an about-face on deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, days after Australia’s delegation backed the plan at the climate talks in Bali.A government representative at the talks this week said Australia backed a 25-40 per cent cut on 1990 emission levels by 2020.But after warnings it would lead to huge rises in electricity prices, Mr Rudd said the Government would not support the target.The repudiation of the delegate’s position represents the first stumble by the new Government’s in its approach to climate change....
It's not a constuct! It IS reality
How would you cut population, Fofoa, if you had to?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5950442.ece
Fauvi,
I do not view chemtrail theories or Rima Laibow's Codex claims as "concrete things" or facts. They require substantial assumptions! And I HAVE studied them.
If you really are a truth seeker, pick a theory and google search "______ debunked" and try to spend an equal amount of time studying the counter arguments.
There are always fewer counter arguments on the www, but there is a reason for this and therefore quantity of hits cannot determine factuality.
As for the Fed, it is a badly flawed institution. It was created under the cloak of secrecy and rushed through Congress. So was Cap-n-Trade. So was TARP.
Unfortunately we have had to live with this SCAR called the Fed for far too long.
But the deeper you go down the rabbit hole to construct a conspiracy that spans generations, the more assumptions you must accept. A more mundane explanation is that fractional reserve banking serves the bankers MOST, and therefore bankers will ALWAYS expand it! And then they will profit from it! At the expense of everyone else! Until ultimately it COLLAPSES from its own weight!
I do not wish for this discussion to devolve into a debate over specific conspiracy theories. I am not interested in debating these.
As I have said, I am open to viewing ALL material on the web and then I make up my own mind. Generally I am willing to share my conclusions. But other than the subject of gold, I am not willing to debate theories. It is too time consuming and draining.
You must make up your own mind! On your own!
My advice is to look first at the most mundane explanation and to give it appropriate weight. Then you can entertain the more conspiracy-oriented explanations.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
"How would you cut population, Fofoa, if you had to?"
I would sterilize the sheeple with chemtrails, Codex and Rihanna! ;)
Martijn,
So far I have watched parts 1 - 9. Pretty creepy. Honestly though, I thought he did a better analysis of the MJ video.
Here are a few examples:
"We Rockafella" - JayZ is using the word "Rockafella" as a verb. Meaning, we roll like Rockefellers, or we roll showing off our wealth. This is very common in Rap music.
G5 = GV - I can't believe Lenon didn't include this definition as one of his three! JayZ is talking about a Gulfstream V, G5 for short. Taking the G5 is part of "rollin' like a Rockefeller". When you Rockafella, a G5 is better! Makes perfect sense. Also, the previous line was "we fly higher than the storm". This is exactly what a G5 does!
"Where you at?" - Lenon uses a "basketball" translation. But the non-basketball translation, even in the African American community means "What are you thinking about?" Or "Where is your head at?" If someone is not paying attention, another person might say "Where you at, girl?" That means "what are you daydreaming about?"
I actually agree with Lenon's definition of "Umbrella". I think that his definition may have been Rihanna's double entendre when she wrote the song. (or whoever wrote it) But I doubt it was an evil intention. I read it more as a song about rolling with money, or "Rockafella-ing"... from a FEMALE perspective.
Many Hip-Hop songs have this theme, but most of them are by males. I think this was a subtle female approach at a standard Hip-Hop message. "Come be with me... come roll with me... and you can be under my umbrella" (my financial protection AND my control).... the same message MALE rappers sing to women! "Roll with me bitch and I will shower you with diamonds when I'm not beating you!"
I will add more if necessary.
FOFOA
@Fofoa
I agree that Lennon is a bit too eager to find "evil"stuff. I have looked around on one of his fora, and that really is a gathering of people that are way out there. Everything they find is regarded a proof of evil forces being involved, while often that does not have to be the case. Some people toy around with words like "hell", occult symbols etc. to maintain an image. Lennon and his friends cannot distinghuish that.
So, he does come up with a farfetched explaination and fits it in without testing for alternative options. He also has some tricks such as taking all tekst literally and slowly speaking out whole corusses as to make one feel words are repeated so often they just have to be important, while in reality often words are repeated a few times to go with the music.
So, all in all his "evidence "is far from compelling und certainly untested (although he makes us feel as if it is by showing "other" possibilities), but I must say he has a very original way of looking at things. As it is untested and a bit farfetched I don't think we should do too much with it, other than enjoy his originality.
Alright, don't watch it, but I've just quickly scanned through "the workings of evil revisited". He does come up with the G5 argument, but has some very weak reaction and after that it's just a load of worhless copy-pasting. In contrast with the Rihanna clip this is absolutely unbelieveale. Even worse, it's totally meaningless and I can't understand what the guy is even trying to do. Maybe he got possed or something and lost his mind. Just let Mr. Honor go.
Haha... that's kinda funny.
My sense in the first one was that he had never heard of a Gulfstream V. And that is why he left it out.
Obviously someone pointed out his mistake so he made a sequel? Oh well. He was entertaining for a while.
Ok, finally 2 minutes to show that looking for a deeper interpration of things is not abnormal. This is not Lenon.
My sense in the first one was that he had never heard of a Gulfstream V. And that is why he left it out.
Probably so. Well, still he makes a convincing enough case to at least be entertaining. I personally I liked this one better than the MJ vid as he does present a rather extensive case with some orignal finds.
Overall I'd say it is an interesting way of looking at things which to me was worth taking notice of. Some of his other material however does show that he is a bit too eager for it. And as fofoa already remarked: it is not that difficult to come up with some sort of demonic story to explain a videoclip or movie.
Well anyway, let's get back to Mad's arguments and some other recent developments.
Did you guys read Ivo Cerkel in the comment of that food and oil article?
This is interesting as ASEAN is a Community which is being set around a currency system and, as a result of this new currency system, the IMF has no more role (to fulfill) except that of bailing out the US. The GCC is also trying to set up a common currency.
The Islamic World Plus ASEAN-Plus-Four is a Community which is in the process of being set up around a currency system-in-the-make on euro lines.
The IMF is indeed rather useless, and I guess they all know it.
But a currency-system-in-the-make on euro lines?
It is a struggle of power indeed.
@Mad
How does this budget deficit thing work?
It states that more dollars went out then dollars came in, right?
Who tells what the outgoing dollars were buying? How do we know it was not gold?
And are we sure Another was only speaking of SA, or were there more oil producing countries involved?
Martijn,
My point about the budget deficit was that SA spent all of its revenues (most of which was oil revenue)and spent more over and above that.
To spend all, it would either buy goods with USD, which it probably did, and when they were used up it would print their local currency to buy more goods and services.
My point was that they would not care a damn what would happen to to USD in 50 years if they never held it for more than 50 hours.
Could they buy Gold with some USD? Absolutely. But Another's assertions about oil going sky high and SA wanting exchange USD of Gold are illogical.
Other countries in the ME have even less spare capacity than SA, and could not even change oil prices back then if they wanted.
Could all of them together do it?
YES! But that was not the point of Another's argument. Again most had budget deficits leading them to be unconcerned about the long term health of the USD.
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