2015
Year of the Fire
Year of the Fire
ANOTHER:
Make no mistake, a currency fire
is now in process and it has much fuel remaining.
_________
As was said before, the real gold market that most people invest in is gone! Any gold trading paper will evaporate in the heat of fire now starting to burn. I tell you now, when the currencies are at nuclear war, GOLD WILL NOT TRADE
_________
An experienced guide is not needed for this trail, look around you and see. The real money is selling ALL FORMS of paper gold and buying physical! Why? Because any form of paper gold is losing value much, much faster than metal. Some paper will disappear altogether in a fire of epic proportions! The massive trading continues at LBMA, but something is now missing? The CBs are no longer lending! They will not anymore!
We have reached production costs.
_________
But I say, spend your time in the company of truly wealthy ones, see how they make gold lie very still! Know this now, the world will again, in your time, feel value in gold as never before.
And that value will be as the "productive use of
holding wealth thru the fire of change".
"Yes, you can also walk in the footsteps of giants".
_________
Such will be today as all forms of "gold commerce" as denominated in dollars is put to fire. It is the very reason nations of resource wealth do not invest in "gold in the ground" … Gold above the ground is the real money for the future.
_________
For some time I have asked persons to consider that all gold paper will burn! The investment in physical gold by dollar holders will collect a lifetime of value. A value hidden in the dollar price of gold! Today, all "gold industry" paper is on fire, for all to see, as the present system for trading gold falls into failure. Indeed, $10,000 gold may prove a "contradiction" that cannot be true, yet does exist in the future. In the past, the thought of such a price of gold did present the "irresistible" urge to buy into the industry this "Dollar based market represents". Only greed can explain the need to gain more than the value "real bullion"
will one day present.
_________
FOA:
The point that this was a "New Gold Market", "unlike none before", in that the dollar market of gold would totally disappear in a blaze of paper fire! ... It is no wonder that no analysts of the gold industry can afford to see the outcome of Another! Conversely, every free citizen, worldwide, that holds and continues to buy physical gold will welcome this change. Dynamic times, indeed! We speed quickly to the conclusion of one of the greatest changes in currency values ever seen. thank you FOA
_________
If one knows where the fire exits are ahead of time, some will get out without getting burned. But, some still think gold derivatives (gold stocks included) amount to the same exits. When this market matures, they will find those doors locked. Even more so today than in years past, investors are finding this to be true. And the real fire hasn't even started yet!
_________
Just as the Fed is now "managing" an all-consuming dollar fire, so will the last of the gold bankers "Manage" their now ongoing fire. Eventually, it will take them completely out of the gold banking business and leave a wake of scorched earth. Everyone (and I mean everyone) that must utilize gold derivatives to work this modern market will be hurt by this. Even some major players are showing the road ahead as they must unload big positions in gold derivatives (last Friday) because of (you guessed it) this dollar burning crisis. And we are only just getting started! Who is going to bid for future gold (paper gold) when its delivery party is being cleaned out on the cash side from an unrelated play? Indeed, will anyone bid for paper gold when they themselves are being skinned in this? You see, there will be no security in dollar gold derivatives when the whole dollar house is on fire. They will bid for metal that is available "right now" or not bid at all! Only the "straight up" "cash bullion only" dealers will come out clean and strong in this. Is this a correct read of the cards all the players are holding? Let's hold some physical, lean back
and watch the events unfold.
_________
If this currency war gets out of hand, our boys could drive the London price as low as they want it to go! The paper won't be worth much in real gold, but every trader, market maker and mine owner/investor is contractually locked to that price making medium. It could all go down in a huge ball of fire and only the physical holders will be whole.
(notice I said holders not just owners (smile))
_________
We will later see the effects of all this as it is played out in what MK calls "the currency wars". War is truly a much better name for it. While Western investors are preparing for a little $100 or $200 rise in paper gold (and worrying about how their paper gold substitutes will hold up until we get there), the whole damn dollar arena is on fire. Everyone asks the same question you do about dollar arena currencies: "So, why does sterling continue to rise relentlessly?" Yet, in this day and time strength in these major currencies comes during a crisis. It's going to shock a lot of investors at how fast price inflation runs once the wars really get started. After the gold markets implode, physical will rush as never before seen in history. Exciting times my friend!
_________
With nowhere to turn, no new initiatives to tap and arriving at a timeline change in international currency values; both these countries are about to take a path of no return. As this downturn begins to bite, our collective governments will be forced to buy up every asset necessary. All just to keep the fires burning! This is the classic threshold of an intense inflation.
It makes me recall a line from Red October, the movie,,,,,, where the Russian submarine captain (played by our retired 007) disposes of his KGB counterpart just before stealing the ship!
He says:
----- "to where I am going, you cannot follow"-----
Indeed, where the dollar universe is now heading, no nation should follow! Can you spell hyperinflation?
Next time I will discuss; what one should really expect to see when all paper burns; and how close political events are saying we are to that fire!
_________
The media concentrates on treating the dollar more like a stock investment than a major international reserve. Considering the way our Fed is socializing our money policy now; perhaps the dollar has embarked down that road and is becoming "just a quick trade investment"! Perhaps a Hyper Trade investment, at that.
I think the majority of Western money theorists want this perception in place:
--"lower rates build the economy
and therefore the currency, too!"--
Never mind that this flies in the face of everything we and the IMF taught the third world about money policy over decades! A policy that says: your country is going down the drain because your money policy is not free trade structured like ours is! Now, we suddenly cheer any policy that tends to support us and try to explain it in a "dollar supporting" slant.
We do this, because we want the dollar market to deliver our investments out of the current US fire storm; it has nothing to do with the strength or hardness of the dollar. In this respect, media cheerleading has little to do with the dollar being a sanctuary for foreign holders during troubled times, either. It has everything to do with local internal US investments going bad. To hell with the hard currency policy we taught you—a return on money that's above inflation or free market competition to weed out the weak—we want our money back and [to hell with] the world! … This is why Europe and the BIS structured the Euro system so it could completely discard all dollar reserve function if needed.
_________
ANOTHER:
I do not offer to prove my thoughts. If what is written was easy for all to find, the information would be of no use to you. Many will take no motions to change their ways and protect worth.
Such is life.
Each will choose his way and as always
the future will teach the truth.
_________
Make no mistake, a currency fire
is now in process and it has much fuel remaining.
_________
As was said before, the real gold market that most people invest in is gone! Any gold trading paper will evaporate in the heat of fire now starting to burn. I tell you now, when the currencies are at nuclear war, GOLD WILL NOT TRADE
_________
An experienced guide is not needed for this trail, look around you and see. The real money is selling ALL FORMS of paper gold and buying physical! Why? Because any form of paper gold is losing value much, much faster than metal. Some paper will disappear altogether in a fire of epic proportions! The massive trading continues at LBMA, but something is now missing? The CBs are no longer lending! They will not anymore!
We have reached production costs.
_________
But I say, spend your time in the company of truly wealthy ones, see how they make gold lie very still! Know this now, the world will again, in your time, feel value in gold as never before.
And that value will be as the "productive use of
holding wealth thru the fire of change".
"Yes, you can also walk in the footsteps of giants".
_________
Such will be today as all forms of "gold commerce" as denominated in dollars is put to fire. It is the very reason nations of resource wealth do not invest in "gold in the ground" … Gold above the ground is the real money for the future.
_________
For some time I have asked persons to consider that all gold paper will burn! The investment in physical gold by dollar holders will collect a lifetime of value. A value hidden in the dollar price of gold! Today, all "gold industry" paper is on fire, for all to see, as the present system for trading gold falls into failure. Indeed, $10,000 gold may prove a "contradiction" that cannot be true, yet does exist in the future. In the past, the thought of such a price of gold did present the "irresistible" urge to buy into the industry this "Dollar based market represents". Only greed can explain the need to gain more than the value "real bullion"
will one day present.
_________
FOA:
The point that this was a "New Gold Market", "unlike none before", in that the dollar market of gold would totally disappear in a blaze of paper fire! ... It is no wonder that no analysts of the gold industry can afford to see the outcome of Another! Conversely, every free citizen, worldwide, that holds and continues to buy physical gold will welcome this change. Dynamic times, indeed! We speed quickly to the conclusion of one of the greatest changes in currency values ever seen. thank you FOA
_________
If one knows where the fire exits are ahead of time, some will get out without getting burned. But, some still think gold derivatives (gold stocks included) amount to the same exits. When this market matures, they will find those doors locked. Even more so today than in years past, investors are finding this to be true. And the real fire hasn't even started yet!
_________
Just as the Fed is now "managing" an all-consuming dollar fire, so will the last of the gold bankers "Manage" their now ongoing fire. Eventually, it will take them completely out of the gold banking business and leave a wake of scorched earth. Everyone (and I mean everyone) that must utilize gold derivatives to work this modern market will be hurt by this. Even some major players are showing the road ahead as they must unload big positions in gold derivatives (last Friday) because of (you guessed it) this dollar burning crisis. And we are only just getting started! Who is going to bid for future gold (paper gold) when its delivery party is being cleaned out on the cash side from an unrelated play? Indeed, will anyone bid for paper gold when they themselves are being skinned in this? You see, there will be no security in dollar gold derivatives when the whole dollar house is on fire. They will bid for metal that is available "right now" or not bid at all! Only the "straight up" "cash bullion only" dealers will come out clean and strong in this. Is this a correct read of the cards all the players are holding? Let's hold some physical, lean back
and watch the events unfold.
_________
If this currency war gets out of hand, our boys could drive the London price as low as they want it to go! The paper won't be worth much in real gold, but every trader, market maker and mine owner/investor is contractually locked to that price making medium. It could all go down in a huge ball of fire and only the physical holders will be whole.
(notice I said holders not just owners (smile))
_________
We will later see the effects of all this as it is played out in what MK calls "the currency wars". War is truly a much better name for it. While Western investors are preparing for a little $100 or $200 rise in paper gold (and worrying about how their paper gold substitutes will hold up until we get there), the whole damn dollar arena is on fire. Everyone asks the same question you do about dollar arena currencies: "So, why does sterling continue to rise relentlessly?" Yet, in this day and time strength in these major currencies comes during a crisis. It's going to shock a lot of investors at how fast price inflation runs once the wars really get started. After the gold markets implode, physical will rush as never before seen in history. Exciting times my friend!
_________
With nowhere to turn, no new initiatives to tap and arriving at a timeline change in international currency values; both these countries are about to take a path of no return. As this downturn begins to bite, our collective governments will be forced to buy up every asset necessary. All just to keep the fires burning! This is the classic threshold of an intense inflation.
It makes me recall a line from Red October, the movie,,,,,, where the Russian submarine captain (played by our retired 007) disposes of his KGB counterpart just before stealing the ship!
He says:
----- "to where I am going, you cannot follow"-----
Indeed, where the dollar universe is now heading, no nation should follow! Can you spell hyperinflation?
Next time I will discuss; what one should really expect to see when all paper burns; and how close political events are saying we are to that fire!
_________
The media concentrates on treating the dollar more like a stock investment than a major international reserve. Considering the way our Fed is socializing our money policy now; perhaps the dollar has embarked down that road and is becoming "just a quick trade investment"! Perhaps a Hyper Trade investment, at that.
I think the majority of Western money theorists want this perception in place:
--"lower rates build the economy
and therefore the currency, too!"--
Never mind that this flies in the face of everything we and the IMF taught the third world about money policy over decades! A policy that says: your country is going down the drain because your money policy is not free trade structured like ours is! Now, we suddenly cheer any policy that tends to support us and try to explain it in a "dollar supporting" slant.
We do this, because we want the dollar market to deliver our investments out of the current US fire storm; it has nothing to do with the strength or hardness of the dollar. In this respect, media cheerleading has little to do with the dollar being a sanctuary for foreign holders during troubled times, either. It has everything to do with local internal US investments going bad. To hell with the hard currency policy we taught you—a return on money that's above inflation or free market competition to weed out the weak—we want our money back and [to hell with] the world! … This is why Europe and the BIS structured the Euro system so it could completely discard all dollar reserve function if needed.
_________
ANOTHER:
I do not offer to prove my thoughts. If what is written was easy for all to find, the information would be of no use to you. Many will take no motions to change their ways and protect worth.
Such is life.
Each will choose his way and as always
the future will teach the truth.
_________
New Year's is a time to offer predictions for the coming year, but just like all dangerous products need warning labels, I must warn you that I do not have a crystal ball. What I have is, I think, a rather unique lens. I call my lens "Freegold", and it is quite simply a framework in which to view things in a different light. Events that seem to defy other frameworks of understanding and confound their practitioners, requiring either complex explanations or else fluid notions that must be reversible anytime the wind changes directions, seem to make sense easily with my lens, which is why I take its view so seriously. That said, I think the following quote should become my standard disclaimer, especially on New Year's Day posts:
FOA: "I (we) expect none of you to consider anything said here as credible. Everything is given as I understand it. If you came with a notion that I am someone who sees the future, grab the children and run far away. For these Thoughts, and my ongoing commentary, are meant to impact exactly as the "gentleman" said they would. People hear them, and whether believed or not, the words leave a mark. A mental mark on the trail, if you will. And later, after the world turns, our little "stacks of rocks" will be easier to understand next time you are passing this way. In fact, your ability to find your own way will forever be enhanced for having seen this path in a different light."
The dollar is on fire right now… 90.28 at the close! That should be a good thing for the dollar, right? I mean, look at the ruble. It goes down and the Russian state struggles while the Russian people panic. Meanwhile the dollar is up and everything's great in the US, from the stock market to the GDP. Up good, down bad, is that how it works? And why is the dollar rising when our trade deficit is still above $40B per month?
Currency strength—a propensity to constantly rise—has always been the dollar's curse. It's why we print, to keep it from going up, because if we didn't, it would just go up up and away, all the way up to currency heaven. It is a characteristic of being the reserve currency, and it is a vicious circle that drives the dollar's exchange rate and our trade deficit up.
The vicious circle works like this. Foreigners settle some portion of international trade in dollars, and then they hold onto those dollars as a kind of final settlement, savings or reserves. This drains dollar liquidity from the foreign exchange which causes the dollar's exchange rate to rise. As the dollar's exchange rate rises, this causes foreigners to want to hold more dollars (because dollars are gaining purchasing power for them locally, not as a reward for hard work, but as a gift of timing) which drains even more dollar liquidity from the foreign exchange which causes the dollar to rise even more and so on.
This currency strength—the propensity to constantly rise—plagues the US economy by making our exports appear more expensive which reduces exports and we lose jobs and profits in the export sector. Meanwhile, it makes foreign imports appear cheaper than what we make for ourselves here at home which increases imports and we lose jobs and profits in the domestic economy. (The jobs and profits, BTW, are exported to our trading partners, sort of…)
We combat this currency strength by printing (which actually means printing debt IOUs, i.e. borrowing more dollars into existence) and feeding a portion of that new liquidity into the foreign exchange where it's being drained by foreigners. Yet even if we print enough to keep the dollar from rising, it still causes our trade deficit to rise because of a net outflow of dollars, which causes us to lose jobs and profits in pretty much all sectors except the financial sector, which absolutely THRIVES on this "vicious circle".
So the dollar's exchange rate is actually a function of our pouring new dollar liquidity into the FX versus their draining of dollar liquidity from the FX. If they are draining faster than we are pouring, the dollar will rise, like it's doing right now!
Before 1971, things were a little different. Exchange rates were fixed, and our trade deficit wasn't really an imbalance in the same way it is today, because we paid for it by running down our systemic "savings" (gold). In essence, because the international currency used to pay for our overconsumption in the 60s was a real and exhaustible good (gold), it wasn't purely notional like it is today. As they drained dollars, we poured gold. From about 1957 until 1971, we emptied our gold reserves from more than 20,000 tonnes down to just 9,000. At that point we said "no more," and started running up our debt rather than running down our savings.
Notice that, at this point, both currency exchange rates and the gold price were finally allowed to fluctuate, to adjust, to release some pressure. It certainly wasn't a clean float, but it was a significant change to the international monetary system that occurred in 1971. It's kinda sorta like this (if you're still following my analogy), if "pouring" gold was like fighting fire with water, pouring notional debt denominated in a purely symbolic unit was like fighting fire with gasoline.
Of course they didn't have to accept our debt. They could have bought gold from the open market with those 1972 dollars, or they could have bought anything really for that matter. But when we look at our trade deficit since then, we can see that they continued hoarding dollars as the final settlement. In cumulative nominal terms, it's $9.5T since 1971. In real terms it's quite a bit more.
If we'd kept running down our "savings" in 1971, it would have lasted for another $10 Billion in net imports rather than the $10 Trillion it has so far. Even at today's gold price of around $1,200, it would have only brought another $350 Billion in net imports. Saying "no more" was a darn good deal for "US" in 1971, and apparently for everyone else too, since they (you?) were the ones who made it all possible! :D
As we used this privilege you gave us to build the greatest superpower this planet has ever seen, with a customized Humvee in front of every McMansion, and eleven carrier groups keeping the rest of you safe, look at what else you got for supporting us! The Dow went from 600 to 18,000!!! Can you believe it? Let me just say thank you ROW, and you're welcome (for a 3,000% return on your investment in the pure exceptionalism of the greatest superpower this planet has ever known… not counting all the dividends along the way. ;).
"You've got to realize that it is both economically and politically undesirable for any currency to appreciate against its peer currencies due to its use as a safe haven. Remember the Swiss franc? As soon as it started rising due to safe haven use they started printing it back down. The dollar is no different except that it's got a whole world full of paper obligations denominated in it. So when it blows, the fireworks will be something to behold."
_________
"The US Federal Reserve has pulled the trigger. Emerging markets must now brace for their ordeal by fire.
They have collectively borrowed $5.7 trillion in US dollars, a currency they cannot print and do not control. This hard-currency debt has tripled in a decade, split between $3.1 trillion in bank loans and $2.6 trillion in bonds. It is comparable in scale and ratio-terms to any of the biggest cross-border lending sprees of the past two centuries.
Much of the debt was taken out at real interest rates of 1pc on the implicit assumption that the Fed would continue to flood the world with liquidity for years to come. The borrowers are "short dollars", in trading parlance. They now face the margin call from Hell as the global monetary hegemon pivots.
The Fed dashed all lingering hopes for leniency on Wednesday. The pledge to keep uber-stimulus for a "considerable time" has gone, and so has the market's security blanket, or the Fed Put as it is called. Such tweaks of language have multiplied potency in a world of zero rates.
Officials from the Bank for International Settlements say privately that developing countries may be just as vulnerable to a dollar shock as they were in the Fed tightening cycle of the late 1990s, which culminated in Russia's default and the East Asia Crisis.
[…]
Stress is spreading beyond Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela and other petro-states to the rest of the emerging market nexus, as might be expected since this is a story of evaporating dollar liquidity...
Turkey relies on imports for almost all its energy and should be a beneficiary of lower crude prices. Yet the Turkish lira has fallen 12pc since the end of November. The Borsa Istanbul 100 index is down 20pc in dollar terms.
Indonesia had to intervene on Wednesday to defend the rupiah. Brazil's real has fallen to a 10-year low against the dollar, as has the index of emerging market currencies. Sao Paolo's Bovespa index is down 23pc in dollars in three weeks.
The slide can be self-feeding. Funds are forced to sell holdings if investors take fright and ask for their money back, shedding the good with the bad. Pimco’s Emerging Market Corporate Bond Fund bled $237m in November, and the pain is unlikely to stop as clients discover that 24pc of its portfolio is in Russia.
[…]
The Fed has already slashed its bond purchases to zero, withdrawing $85bn of net stimulus each month. It is clearly itching to raise rates for the first time in seven years. This is the reason why the dollar index (DXY) has jumped 12pc since May, smashing through its 30-year downtrend line, a "seismic change" in the words of HSBC.
[…]
This time the threat does not come from insolvent states. They have learned the lesson of the late 1990s. Few have dollar debts. But their companies and banks most certainly do, some 70pc of GDP in Russia, for example. This amounts to much the same thing in macro-economic terms.
Private debt morphs into state debt since governments cannot allow key pillars of their economies to collapse. Does anybody believe that the Kremlin can walk away from $50bn of external debt owed by its oil giant Rosneft? Or that the $170bn debt owed by Brazil's Petrobas is a purely private matter? Standard & Poor's says the only reason it has not yet slashed Petrobras to junk is because of implicit state support.
[…]
World finance is rotating on its axis, says Stephen Jen, from SLJ Macro Partners. The stronger the US boom, the worse it will be for those countries on the wrong side of the dollar.
"Emerging market currencies could melt down. There have been way too many cumulative capital flows into these markets in the past decade. Nothing they can do will stop potential outflows, as long as the US economy recovers. Will this trend lead to a 1997-1998-like crisis? I am starting to think that this is extremely probable for 2015," he said."
_________
"I’ve gotten a 100 percent raise. Not as a reward for hard work or long-term loyalty to my employer, but as a gift of timing. This windfall isn’t a one-off like a bonus, nor is it evenly spaced like paychecks after a promotion. I get richer at random. Almost every time I visit the ATM, what I take out is a smaller slice of what I make than it was the time before. I’m paid in dollars, but I live in Russia, where the currency is currently collapsing; as the ruble loses value, I effectively get a raise. This week alone, at the time of this writing, my salary’s worth has increased by 20%.
[…]
There is a giddy gambler’s thrill to watching your money gain value for reasons beyond your control. The world becomes your Costco; “gotta stock up on house slippers, they’re so cheap and you never know when you’ll have ten people over and they all need to wear house slippers!” As the ruble’s decline accelerated, my dollar-denominated friends and I looked up exchange rates as frequently as sports fans who can’t not check the score on their phones under the table at a nice restaurant. We texted each other the latest numbers, strategized about the timing of ATM visits and large purchases. (One friend who has held off on extending her gym membership until it runs out this month gloats daily as the currency collapses.) Taxis no longer felt like an indulgence and on more than one occasion, I ordered an extra two entrees for dinner to meet the delivery minimum.
[…]
A couple days later, I met up with a group of mainly-expat friends at a bar called Lumberjack, where the waiters have the kind of facial hair favored by Civil War soldiers and wear tight flannel shirts and wool slacks fastened to suspenders. (Moscow is obsessed with Williamsburg.) When the conversation among the expats inevitably turned to the ruble, the group was split into two camps along the lines of the currencies in which our paychecks were denominated. While those of us paid in dollars, euros or pounds lived in a time of bounty, a woman paid in rubles said she wouldn’t be able to leave the house when she went home to America for the holidays, she was so broke. One half of a very cute couple was paid in dollars, while her boyfriend was paid in rubles. One small step in the fight against the gender pay gap?! No, that was the cheap cocktails’ expensive ingredients talking.
The bar was loud, but I felt we ought to be whispering, or not discussing the topic at all. When I first drank at this bar in September, I ordered the Penicillin, a cocktail made with ginger, honey and lemon, blended scotch whisky and Islay single malt scotch. I had first tried it at a bar with not unsimilar decor underneath the BQE. It cost 450 rubles, and my credit card bill reflected this with a charge of $12.60. When I recommended the drink to the expats at the table, it cost $8.54. How can a bar in central Moscow stay in business serving excellent, strong, classic cocktails made with imported liquors? If Lumberjack has yet to raise its prices, yesterday the Penicillin would have cost anywhere from $7.72 to $5.68, depending on the time of day you ordered it.
Gradually companies that import consumer goods to Russia are announcing price increases. The period in which Russia was the cheapest place in the world to buy an iPhone was all too short. Still, prices haven’t kept pace with the ruble’s depreciation. Russians aren’t getting raises and can’t afford to spend more money on the same stuff, and retailers won’t be able to hang onto business if they hike up prices. Yet the experts on the radio promise inflation of 15 or 20% early next year. What will happen when people can’t afford to buy groceries?"
_________
"Belarus blocked online stores and news websites Sunday, in an apparent attempt to stop a run on banks and shops as people rushed to secure their savings…
The blockage started on December 19, when the government announced that purchases of foreign currency will be taxed 30 percent and told all exporters to convert half of their foreign revenues into the local currency.
"Looks like the authorities want to turn light panic over the fall of the Belarussian ruble into a real one," Belarus Partisan website wrote, calling the blockages "December insanity."
[…]
As a result, expect to see more of this...
_________
Kommersant, a Russian business daily, said the exporters may have to sell a combined $1bn a day until March. …
The directive forcing state exporters to reduce their dollar holdings amounts to a soft form of the capital controls the government has pledged not to introduce.
Officials insist private companies will not be given orders on how and when to convert their dollar earnings into roubles. But Mr Medvedev appealed to the oligarchs at the meeting last week to manage their forex operations in a “responsible” manner.
“They are being convinced,” said one official last week. “There were no threats of sending anyone to Siberia, just explanations that they would act in a way that is not speculative.”
_________
"I've accepted a position as Chief Economist on the Senate Budget Committee."
_________
_________
"The yuan rose by the most since May after China relaxed rules on banks’ foreign-exchange holdings, allowing them to hold fewer dollars.
[…]
“Some banks may be selling some of their dollar positions as they won’t need to keep them under the new rules,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Credit Agricole CIB. The changes could lead to “low tens of billions in dollars” being freed up, he estimated.
[…]
The central bank is pressing ahead with exchange-rate liberalization and has basically withdrawn from regular intervention in the currency market, Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian said Nov. 27 in Beijing."
FOA (10/20/00; 14:00:07MD - usagold.com msg#43)
A fireside Chat
Aristotle, said this today:
--------------------------
Aristotle (10/19/2000; 5:44:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 39386) Do you heed your own advice? Thoughts on Trade deficits--big and small
"""""As for the U.S., we are in a unique but temporary position in which we haven't yet had to pay the full price for our past trade deficits. Until that day arrives (with severe currency devaluation), we might be inclined to stand the old terms on their heads and describe our current trade deficit as a FAVORABLE trade position because we are receiving real goods and services from other countries with partial payment (required in excess of our own exports) made in typically depreciating paper of our own easy creation.""""""
-----------
The dollar deficit is truly the main money destruction tool being forced to function in our modern "killing fields" of today! In the past we saw this trade deficit function operate for only short periods as it constricted growth in our US economy! Now, they have not only the US economy but also its currency caught permanently in this long term trap. For the first time since we left the gold standard while making them play by our rules, they now have us. Once before, in 1985 (look at a dollar chart then) we were well on our way to the same problems, but the difference then was that "noone" had a potential alternative reserve currency system to run to when we induced a recession. Today they do and this "waiting in the wings system" is the hatchet tool in the hands of our world markets that will do us in. As the ECB says; """ it's not the Euro is too low, your dollar is too high ,,,,,,,, so go ahead, make my day and fix it"""! (smile) Indeed, no intervention by the US now is a stab in the heart of the dollar economy.
The US has had the rest of the world in somewhat of a trap also. For a long, long time. Perhaps from when we told them that the world gold exchange standard bearer would no longer ship gold for dollars. From that point on we (USA, my country) could inflate our money without consequences.
In fact, we had to inflate in this "Darwin" fashion over all these years! Truly, if we did not inflate long term and ship liquidity (created dollars) outside the US, our dollar's value would always soar above other strong currencies. This is because of its world settlement function. Notice I said soar over their value instead of they would fall away from our value. There is a difference. As in our recent hikes, we saw that the internal basket of goods prices for both dollars and Euros dictated that these currencies are at opposite extremes in value and should reverse. Further; I use Darwin because everyone came to think that our sending money overseas was part of the "natural order of things" (chimps (smile)). They thought and still do think that the world just craves our money! They will have a different opinion later.
We must reconcile with the truth of this process by looking at the dollar world from 1971; the one time the dollar soared too high for too long it began killing off our economy. Forcing us into the same printing policy other lesser nations must employ to keep their exchange rate level. Yes, even the USA must sell overseas to create jobs and profits at home. A huge trade deficit in a reserve currency nation, induced by an overvalued currency like we are seeing now, raises the currency's value even further above other strong fiats. This is the way such a reserve system naturally reacts when there is no local reduction in liquidity to check it.
A regular (non reserve currency) nation's money would suffer a different fate if they inflated the native currency the way we do. Its non trade settlement function begets a falling exchange rate. That in turn drives then into the same policy of hyper inflation but its effects are felt in higher prices, immediately.
Again, conversely, a reserve currency always rises in exchange function from this forced "liquidity draining" trade settlement. Once on this trend, over time, the higher its value goes the more people finance in other mediums (yen carry, gold carry, Euro carry, oil carry) This further dries up the fractional reserve created dollar reserves as the demand for dollars grows ever stronger from its ever higher cost trade settlements. Settlements dictated because IMF / dollar protocols demand dollar use as settlement.
In the past if the system began driving the dollar too high and forcing US trade deficits, the Fed would raise rates to throw us (USA) into an economic recession that broke the vicious deficit trade cycle. Knowing full well that it would be a short recession policy because "noone" would jump the dollar ship before the medicine could work. Looking around back then and we see there was no other reserve currency ship to jump to. We either lose jobs and profits from an "overvalued currency" or from an induced recession. The first can lead to a financial breakdown, the lasts corrects things after only a short while. Naturally, we embark on the quick fix of a fast recession.
This is why our times are so very different now. What the "chimps" came to know over this 20+ year period as a strong America in a high dollar, was always something our money creators were striving to fight against. We truly have always been inflating our currency for these many years in an attempt to keep the natural effects of the IMF reserve system from spiking the currency too high up. Again, if we had a regular currency, our policies would have been reflected in sky high prices for everything. What most of us "smart chimps" know as price inflation reflecting money supply inflation.
OK, let me sip some starbuck's:
Ever since the Euro was seen in by US policy makers as an eventual success, our treasury has tried to put its best "New York Spin" on the ongoing process. Simply stated; from the early to mid 90s we are in favor of a strong dollar policy. In reality, with the advent of the Euro and the evolving stance of the BIS, this has made our "economy killing" strong dollar unavoidable.
There is no way the Fed can create a new recession now without everyone jumping ship for another currency reserve. There is no possible way the Euro Zone will suffer as big a downfall as the US in another policy induced recession. Just looking at their closed economy and debt structure tells that story by itself. Any US slowdown means a run for the Euro, yet weakness in the Euro means the US must inflate at a torrid rate. We now stand toe to toe and wait to see who will fall first. All the while our world dollar gold markets are caught in the cross fire!
This is where we have been for the last decade. This explains why the DOW and all its paper cousins have enjoyed the effects of a massive, ongoing dollar expansion worldwide without any official policy interference. Right when we were to the point of changing policy to slow things down, the Euro was to be introduced in a year or two and risked taking away or sharing the dollar's standard.
The "lesser chimps", lost in Western thought keep waiting for the fed to induce their deflationary policy. (I was monkey - ing around in this area for a while myself) (grin) It is not coming. To do so now would commit the dollar to non reserve status in a hurry and produce a massive price inflation at home (right now) as all these unneeded dollar reserves come racing home. Remember, the ECB does not need dollar reserves! The Euro is a stand alone currency representing an in house trading block. They may have to buy dollars for oil, but others must also buy Euros for European produced goods. If the Euro went to .10 to the dollar the EuroZone economy would not stop. But all international dollar trade would grind to a halt. The USA could not sell anything internationally, at all! Every other nation would simply abandon the IMF protocols and use their native currencies to trade directly with Europe. Even Arabia would break their SDR basket peg and trade oil for Euro goods, either using their currency or directly if needed.
Our outdoor fireplace is getting hot, let's step away.
The lesser of the two evils today (and this is the one the ECB / BIS enjoys watching) is our current frozen policy. We can no longer cut off the strong dollar / growing deficit circle by raising rates and invoking a recession as in the past. This time we must continue to pump the reserves at all costs in a process that only floods the world with more dollars. It's called a currency hyperinflation and is one we (as US people) have never witnessed in modern times. The pressure has built up full volume now as all escape valves are being closed. We are well on the way to a derivatives exploding event that will break into the open with a cascading dollar and full force US price inflation.
This is the "why" for the gold derivatives policy that Physical Gold Advocates are now enjoying. Also one that leveraged paper gold investors are being tortured with. In effect, we "gold buyers" are trading 1971 style dollar derivatives contracts for the physical gold we never could get then. And doing so before a 1971 style gold event that comes in the form of a denouncement of the contractual viability of all gold contracts. Let's call it "no gold for dollar derivatives"!
All the while, just like in 71 other "chUmps" (smile) are saving these same paper gold substitutes to protect themselves from this same crisis. Further; many of them have sold their physical gold for use by the BBs. I think SteveH calls it OPG (other peoples gold). This is where the real supply that fills a Physical Gold Advocate nation's coffers (and mine) comes from. It's truly a good deal in light of what's coming. Let's not mess it up by talking about who is buying all that gold, rather just point everyone to watch how much is being sold!
The US cannot walk away from hiking our ""gold trail"" now. Because "this process" is one of the few tools available to them for keeping the dollar perception in a good light. In effect by slowing the currency transition process they are doing exactly what world dollar holders need them to do. They will inflate these derivatives until in effect; our modern gold market bankrupts itself as supply is exhausted. I say, good! (smile) But once we get to that stage, I expect that a super US economic downturn will ensue. Then the fed will go wide open and cover everything in sight to keep us going! The ongoing price inflation will be driving everything from physical gold to real estate through the roof.
I submit that many smart hard money thinkers like Traveler and Thai Gold (and many others) are walking forward but looking backward. I (myself) have tried this before but usually run into something I didn't see in front of me (smile). That something today, for modern hard money followers is in the form of an internationally induced transition away from the US dollar as a reserve currency. Such a policy evolution has the effects of driving the lead currency's creator into printing press mode as an only option to maintaining the viability of our economic and financial structures.
Yes, it eventually breaks everything! But this is nothing new for us gold history buffs and it's what has happened in countless modern national fiats around the world today. Nations that don't have a reserve currency to play with. We will do like their citizens do, continue to use dollars but carry in our pockets whatever new reserve is in fashion, as a backup! Be it gold or Euros or both. In addition, our entire financial structure (like in these other nations) will change to operating in an inflation economy. Money will be lost, big time and made big time, but things will still be financed, bought and sold. Houses will double, triple then double again in price, even as financing rates approach 35%, 40% or whatever. We will also follow the (then) prevailing world policy concerning physical gold, solely because it will make economic sense to our officials.
As such; like today, everyone uses dollar reserves because it keeps us within accepted international policy. Across the currency warfare valley our "gold trail" is coming to, we will also use gold as a free reserve medium. Mostly because it's what the leading reserve policy of that time will dictate and that will keep us on good trading terms.
No, we will not confiscate gold again. Perhaps if it is designated as US legal tender and caught up in some kind of currency change, that will pose a risk! But that's just following the same fiat rollovers so many other countries now must employ and will have little impact on most gold owners. Besides, PGA's know how to avoid such a trap through physical gold ownership diversity! US Eagles held along with a diverse group of new and old coins fit my pocket just fine. I don't worry about the premium on any ounces I buy today. In the future, the total price we now pay will probably be the premium anyway (huge smile from ear to ear!)
Again, as international trends follow the use of physical gold into the free trading asset realm, no longer as an official money, then its value and ownership will soar the world over. To date this is the future before us as the dollar fails its function.
Truly, a relationship with an honest international physical gold dealer will no doubt place oneself at the center of this exciting new financial evolution. (I'm trying to think of a dealer that would fit that description? I know I just saw one on this page. Somewhere?) (smile)
Lastly: Don't tell me an inflating dollar economy doesn't work this way! I have lived in many, many lands and have witnessed and used such inflating systems. Look around for yourself at how non reserve moneys are impacted by their native policy today and the effects of those policies on all real assets. There are few examples that do not follow this regular fiat price inflation mode. Our dollar use and function is about to revert to a lesser more common level, suffering its drop away from reserve need. In doing so it will change as never before in our time. In fact, it's only the current gold pricing system that may experience a larger change. Not only in use but in Western gold value perception.
""""We watch this new gold market together, yes?""""""
Thank you one and all for sharing this time
Trail Guide
_________
Not sure what if anything this means for 2015, but my view counter just hit the jackpot this week:
I was a little short on time this holiday season, so don't be alarmed if this post seems somewhat abbreviated by my standards. I have a feeling we'll be talking about this topic for a while, and anyway I wanted to prompt you to think about the possibilities for the Fire of 2015 yourself, rather than tell you what I think you should think. ;D
Happy New Year everyone!!!
Sincerely,
FOFOA
