Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Interesting Times

"May you live in interesting times" is reputed to be an ancient Chinese curse.
_____________________________________________________

Rumors seem to be flying around on a number of different topics, and it would seem to be an insurmountable task to make sense out of all of them. But once again I fall back on the Economic Confidence Model of Martin Armstrong and his theory of waves of energy that pass through the people and converge in amplified peaks at very specific times.

According to Armstrong, it is actually the time of his prediction that is most accurate and not necessarily the content of the predictions. At very specific times, and in very specific intervals, things simply happen. At some intervals, with enough convergence, his model is expected to be exact TO THE DAY. At other times, it is expected to be correct within a couple weeks. The name of his 77 page tome, "It's Just Time" is a great description of this principle. He got the name from something Margaret Thatcher said to him personally in the 80's. That the conservatives were going to lose the election in England not because of anything specific they had done, but because "it's just time".

Here is one paragraph from "It's Just Time":
The 37.33 month cycle is equal to 3.11 years. This also is very close to Pi being 3.141. To show the hidden order, I will for the first time publicly or even privately illustrate a point. Take the high of the previous wave 1998.554298. Add Pi in terms of years and months 3.141. This produces the date 2001.695. Take 365 days and multiply .695 yields 253.675 days into the year 2001. That amounts to September 11th, 2001. So much for the CFTC claiming that my forecasts manipulate the world economy because nobady can predict a specific day years in advance. For as much as things may appear to be random, it is more like Neo in the Matrix. Suddenly he can see not the walls, but the code.

I am sure that most people will dismiss this for any number of reasons. But I suggest that you read the entirety of "It's Just Time" before you make up your mind. There are many including Jim Sinclair who hold Marty Armstrong in very high regard.

The Economic Confidence Model turning point we are approaching right now is April 19, 2009. It is one that is expected to be correct within a couple weeks. The next point that is expected to be correct TO THE DAY, is June 13, 2011.

The rumors that interest me the most relate to gold, a change in the monetary system, and supply line failures, or shortages in the necessities of life. I read one thing in the last 24 hours that makes me speculate that our government has planned a practice exercise for some sort of emergency. And this exercise is scheduled for... early April.

As I have speculated on this blog, shortages combined with monetary stimulus can lead to rapid hyperinflation which can lead to a change in the monetary system which can lead to FreeGold. So that is the basic structure I am building around the evidence I am seeing. Perhaps, and this is only speculation, we could see shortages this spring and the monetary change during the "hot" days between Independence Day and Labor Day. This timing reconciles with multiple sources I follow.

There was an interesting note I came across out of the UK that makes me think the contango trade we saw recently with oil tankers being used to store oil while anchored at sea has spread into grains. I'm not sure what this means, but I also anticipate gas shortages at some point this year. So it seems to fit.

This has all reminded me of a fictional story I read back in October, when things were looking pretty bad. This short essay was written by John Galt and posted on his blog on October 26th, 2008:
Mary Jo Schlumpunfunk (with all kudos to Glenn Beck) was driving home from work in the suddenly cold November air of her home town of Jeffersonville, Indiana. Mary Jo was sick and tired of listening to the depressing news about all the problems all those rich bankers and Wall Street types were having so instead of listening to the news station, she switched over to her favorite pop music station tuning out reality and enjoying the drive back to her humble apartment on the outskirts of town. Her neighbors greeted her with a friendly ‘hello’ as she walked up the steps and they asked her if her company was going to shut down or not next week for the holiday. Mary Jo paused with a puzzled look and said “We are open, even for Thanksgiving Day as far as I know.” They nodded and looked at her like she was crazy and then went inside out of the cold air of the night. Mary Jo’s position as the Assistant Manager at the local Kroger’s gave her the confidence that her job was secure because after all, people had to eat.

As the alarm went off at 3 a.m. Mary Jo did not even think about what was being broadcast and just hit the off switch on her clock so she could start getting ready for work. She turned her computer on as she passed by it on her way to the bathroom so she could get ready to relieve the night manager at five. Mary Jo returned to her computer after getting ready to log in and check her email only to receive a message on her browser that there was a connectivity issue. With that frustrating bit of news, she looked at the cable router and sure as heck, it was down again. The regular routine of having to dig an old cable bill out to call the idiots at Time Warner has long been replaced by having the tech support number on speed dial on her telephone and cell phone. When she picked her telephone up, it was dead with no dial tone or service of any kind. Then she grabbed her cell phone and called finally getting through only to get the message “We are aware of the current outage in all of our services and we are working diligently to restore service to all of our customers as soon as possible. At this time, all internet access is restricted to certain business accounts only and will be restored to residential customers as soon as we can.” With that cheery bit of good news, she grabbed her coffee and hopped into her car to go to the local combination gas station to grab some breakfast and gas on her way to work.

With a little bit of stunned disbelief she pulled into the pumps at the local Gas-N-Go where literally every pump but hers had a car sitting there and the inside of the store was packed with people. She dutifully popped the gas cap off and slid her debit card into the slot as her breath steamed up the morning air. The card reader displayed “INVALID CARD, PLEASE SEE CASHIER” in the tiny LCD display. With that she grabbed her keys and purse and huffed inside to the station now leaving her only forty minutes to get to work. The line at the poor cashier was murder with people yelling and screaming at the young lady demanding that she fix the problem immediately but she kept saying she couldn’t and was on the verge of tears. Mary Jo grabbed a bagel and a bag of chips the hopped into the line from hell. When it was her turn at the front she started to say “My card…” and was cut off by the young lady who blurted out “I know, I know, it does not work. It doesn’t matter what card, what bank, whatever but none of them are working and I don’t know why. I can only take cash now. Would you still like to buy gas at Pump 4 or not?” Mary Jo said “Sure give me $20 worth plus this stuff”, knowing full well that would leave her less than twenty bucks in her wallet after buying all the groceries and gas but she could get more food at work because after all, she worked in a grocery store.

After that encounter she turned the radio off in her car and headed off to work, listening to her favorite Johnny Cash CD. “The heck with all this idiocy” she thought to herself. Maybe work will be peaceful and we can get the Christmas food display moved to the front of the store to boost the sales. Mary Jo pulled into the parking lot expecting to see only the usual five or six cars that were normally there. Instead of a usual day, she would see what happens when the world is turned on its side, as the lot was full and there was a line of people standing in front of the ATM machine outside which had to be forty plus people deep. On a day like today, Mary Jo knew she would have to park in the back and sneak in through the receiving door just like it was the peak shopping season. After parking the car, she wolfed the bagel down while walking inside while trying to slurp down her coffee. Oh the shock she would see.

The night manager was sitting in the receiving area with his head in his hands sobbing like a baby. Mary Jo would not think this was unusual except he was a fifty-three year old man, and as an ex-Marine his will usually was emotionless, all business, and stalwart. “Mike, what is the matter, are you okay?” Mary Jo tried to ask as she approached him in an effort to comfort him. Mike replied “You should never have come here Mary, this is a disaster. Do you know how many times we have had to call Law Enforcement out here to restore order? Don’t you listen to the news or anything? This is a nightmare, an utter, disastrous nightmare.” Mary Jo noticed a half empty bottle of bourbon at his feet and that enraged her immediately. She snapped back “Get your self together mister. There is nothing that severe that justifies drinking on the job. You have a job to do and you need to get your damned butt on that floor out there right now!”

“Mary Jo,” Mike said in a soft spoken and measured manner, “you do not have a job. I do not have a job. Kroger’s does not have a job for us any longer. You need to go report to the new resource manager who is running the show here. We are just clerks in their eyes and you had best get used to it. The State of Indiana Resource Manager showed up at one o’clock in the morning. His name is Tom O’Donnell and he’ll remind you of his power every hour, on the hour. Our store has never been the same since.”

“Mike, you’re drunk. You need to get home and sober up. I’ll go meet Mr. O’Donnell and straighten this out now!” Mary Jo confidently stated as she slammed the doors of the docks open and walked out on to the floor. As she looked at the shoppers in the meat and deli section, her only reaction was to drop her full cup of coffee on the floor, creating a huge puddle of hot steaming java on the floor. She stomped up to the manager’s office in the front of the store only to be greeted by a deputy in the doorway who told her “Ma’am, only authorized personnel are allowed in that office.” She snapped her name badge off her bloused and put it in the deputy’s face and in an angry tone told him “I’ve been in this office longer than you’ve had your job son. Now let me into my office to meet with Mr. O’Donnell and find out what is going on in my damn store.”

As she walked into the office she closed the door and saw another deputy, this one armed with a shotgun, the resource manager and the store manager, Bill. Mary Jo looked at him sternly and spouted out “Why are there two men armed with assault rifles in my deli department?” Bill, looking tired, disturbed and frustrated already said “Mary Jo, please sit down. We have a lot to cover. Let me introduce you to our new boss, Tom O’Donnell from the State of Indiana Department of Resource Allocation.” Stunned and now silent, she fell back into a chair in the office as Mr. O’Donnell arose to shake her hand and said “Hello Mary Jo, I know this is going to be difficult, but I think we can all work well together. I assume you have not heard any news since you woke up early this morning?” Mary Jo in a soft voice said “No, I was listening to a music CD in my car. I noticed my debit card did not work and that is about the only thing that was unusual other than my internet being down, but that’s a regular problem now.”

When she was finished, the news was dropped on her. Mr. O’Donnell explained to her that 11:30 p.m. last night President Bush declared a banking holiday and shut down all civilian internet access and non-emergency telephone communications to insure a smooth transition while the cash rationing and bank consolidation programs were implemented nationwide. Mary Jo stuttered “why the internet, if you do not mind my asking?” He explained to her that it was to prevent an external internet based attack on the financial system and that the U.S. stock and bond markets would now be closed for thirty days until the new banking system could be implemented. Mr. O’Donnell then went into a detailed explanation that ATM machines would be reactivated at 6 a.m. sharp and that each individual will be limited to $50 per week, regardless of the number of bank accounts in their name. He went on further to highlight that all credit cards will be suspended for the same time period as the stock market to enable the banks to evaluate who would be allowed to own or utilize the cards in the future.

After that bit of shocking news causing tears to well up in her eyes, Mary Jo then asked the obvious question, “So what is your position in all this?” O’Donnell knew this was coming and replied “Emergency food, gas and energy rationing has been declared nationwide. Every state officer or manager with a certain clearance level received training from FEMA and the Department of Treasury as to this possibility this past summer. Every American has to be guaranteed access to food and energy and those gas stations that do not have a military or state police unit there by now, will have one by 7 a.m. We have to insure safety and stability to prevent people from over-reacting as the Bush administration transitions over to the Obama administration in the next sixty days. I will be helping you with re-organizing your store into a more efficient model to deal with the foodstuff and merchandise purchase restrictions so the civilians will not freak out. Only forty customers will be allowed into the store at any given time and each customer will be handed a shopping list that they can abide by until the rationing program moves into full swing. Price controls are in full effect and we are in the process of working with your main offices to reprogram all computers to these limitations. We can accept cash today and hopefully the debit card system returns to normal in the next two hours. Sadly, we are rationing everything this cold winter, including electricity and most importantly, money.”

Mary Jo was speechless. She looked at her store manager and wanted to cry but couldn’t. “What do you need me to do?” was all she could say. Mr. O’Donnell explained that the entire Christmas display had to come down as well as any non-essential goods removed from the shelves. He handed her a file and said “At all times you will have an armed escort for your protection. I know these are your neighbors and regular customers but you never know when someone will go Waco on you.” As she opened the file, she realized the gravity of the situation. She had to remove the entire electronics and gift section. Christmas decorations and greeting cards had to be removed; alcohol shipped on a company truck to the new “State of Indiana Resource Distribution Center”; all drugs including over-the-counter moved into the pharmacy. It was a stunning bit of news. And she realized with the dread of the moment that this had been planned for months, perhaps years.

Mary Jo now realized why the headline on the Louisville newspaper said “Closed for Business” and announced the government program on the front page as well as a brief story about the midnight bankruptcy filing for the paper. She thought to herself “I guess America is now closed for business also” as she sauntered over towards the cashiers to comfort them and begin the process of re-organizing the store to the new Federal and state mandated standards.

John Galt also posted some commentary after this story and you can read the rest of his post here.

Sincerely,
FOFOA

9 comments:

Justin_n_IL said...

Excellent piece Fofoa. I have read the above hypothetical piece with Mary Jo a few months back. The whole world is getting ready to reel to and fro. Americas easy access to food, utilities, and all manner of creature comforts is expected just as the sun is to rise in the east. They are about to get slapped upside the head with violent force.

FOFOA said...

Justin,
Thx.

Related:

Boomers, Your Crisis Has Arrived
by James Quinn

And on the pension front:

A proposal to shore up U.S. banks with pension funds

MogwaiHunter said...

Food may be very scarce globally...

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12252

California: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/02/10/EDKB15RJ1M.DTL

Argentina: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008719818_argdrought08.html

China: http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE5160UL20090207

Texas: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/stories/DN-drought_08met.ART.Central.Edition1.4c2aeeb.html

Australia: http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE5127CY20090203

The current peanut butter salmonella outbreak seems very timely. It is a killing 2 birds with one stone... 1. setting up first responders with a nice supply of food (what is being confiscated) and 2. more govt. control over the food supply with more powers via scare legislation.

FOFOA said...

MH (DemonKiller),
Thanks for the urls. Here are some hyperlinks to those articles. Worldwide food shortages may be in the pipeline even without the credit and banking mess:

Worldwide - Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production
by Eric deCarbonnel

China Drought

Argentina Drought

Australia Drought

Texas Drought

California Drought

FOFOA said...

In response to this, I will enter my guess.

Oil got in a bid for gold. Oil at $36 today as gold soared up $24 seemed like the dollar masters had forgotten the deal altogether. The dollar is becoming a run-of-the-mill paper currency.

"The US$ is soon to become a "regular paper currency"! To this end, holders of US dollars and US$ assets, must make a decision that will impact all assets, worldwide! To this end, assets will move to "physical gold and cash dollars" first, driving up the dollar against all currencies. Then the dollar will be sold as it is deployed into real things." -Another 4/18/98

He was 11 years ahead of his time. (4/19/09)

FOFOA said...

MK (usagold.com 12February2009; 10:37)
The “Fix” is in? The dog wags his tail

The big move yesterday occurred at the London PM Fix (8AM MT, 3PM London). There was a minor rumble at the AM Fix which might have been a precursor. A move like that at the Fix indicates a big physical buyer placing an order. I would label yesterday’s London action significant in that it represented “the dog wagging the tail” instead of the other way around. The physical market immediately moved the futures — something we do not see that often, and haven’t seen for quite some time.

One could, in another time, argue the validity of emphasizing a one-time event. However, these are unusual times, and we should be sensitive to events that might signal an important change. If it was simply a one-time event, we can return to business as usual in the gold market. No harm done. If a pattern of big purchases at the Fix emerges, it could mean big things for the gold market.

Sir Shiva is close in that the 1970s market was driven by physical buying. London played a significant role. That changed beginning in the 1980s when New York and Comex took over the lead in setting the price. If the Comex hold is broken via physical buying in London, we know that a new era has dawned in the gold market — an era likely to be similar to the mixed price finding mechanism of the 1970s. Today’s market activity looks like an extension and response to yesterday’s buying at the Fix. I wouldn’t look for something to happen everyday at the Fix. It won’t be a steady process. It will be targeted purchasing in large amounts with sudden moves in the price as a result. I would also consider the possibility that big petro money could be the source with the action in the pound providing an additional clue.

Keep in mind I post this as conjecture not fact, that is, something of interest to monitor in order to determine whether or not a case can be made for a fundamental change in the way we do business in the gold market.

FOFOA: Pretty close to what I guessed. ;)

FOFOA said...

On JSMineset today:

The Complex Nature Of Market Timing
Posted: Feb 12 2009 By: Jim Sinclair

Post Edited: February 12, 2009 at 4:10 pm

Filed under: General Editorial

Dear CIGAs,

Many of you have asked how anyone can give a date and a price as if it came from throwing bones or reading tarot cards. That is not how it works.

The amount of work is mindboggling.

He is an article written by Martin Armstrong and outlines exactly how such things are done. Good luck reading it.

Regards,
Jim

Click here to read the PDF file (4.5mb)…

Anonymous said...

FOFOA,

You have a great blog here. Keep up the great job with your posts. I would like to share with you this video. It is a collage of the movie, Rollover, with an insertion of Rep. Kanjorski's disclosure about the electronic bank run last September. Life imitates art?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ-IPb8AOZE

FOFOA said...

Thanks Anonymous,

Here is a hyperlink to the movie.

You know, those riot scenes are what scare our government and politicians most of all. To them, that is a horror movie. They will do literally ANYTHING to keep that from happening. But even that may not be enough. Gov't still has plenty of tricks up it's sleeve and we therefore have plenty of surprises coming. But each trick has consequences and consequences can sometimes be delayed, but never avoided.

FOFOA

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