A turn date in Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model will be upon us on April 19th or 20th, depending on how many days you use to calculate a year. The graphic shows that the model is predicting a top at this turn date before heading down into a long-term low in June 2011. As Martin explains in the essay below, the model does not necessarily mean that a top in the Dow Industrials is at hand. For instance, the 1989 turn date forecasted a top in the Japanese Nikkei. The Economic Confidence Model was created with inputs from around the world and therefore is not limited in scope to just pinpointing stock market tops and bottoms. Personally, I am looking at the US Dollar, the Treasury market or the Shanghai market for signs of a top. All these markets have experienced strong rallies off of recent bottoms and might be ready to turn lower...
Read the full post at Contrahour.com.
Also, see Martin's latest and greatest at Nathan's Economic Edge.
Watch out this weekend
A new Dominic Frisby article about Martin Armstrong.
The next big turning point: this weekend
Nevertheless, of note to all investors, is that there is another Armstrong turn date coming on 2009.3, or 19-20 April. What we have to figure out is which market is going to turn.
Armstrong once advised Canadian technical analyst Ross Clark that markets which were trending the strongest going into a cyclic turn point would be the most likely to reverse. "It is the concentration of capital that creates booms and the subsequent busts."
So we have to ask ourselves which market fits this bill...