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The above is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice, nor is it at all intended to be taken as such. The commentary and other contents simply reflect the opinion of the author alone on the current and future status of the markets and various economies. It is subject to error and change without notice. The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered by them.
55 comments:
i've been watching the dollar as I saw it approaching the 0.83 mark. so good call on getting out (i'm out and have been out), though I've also wondered whether or not to buy some essentials w/some credit cards BEFORE having those limits cut and having to spend good money. any thoughts on that?
i've been waiting to see outright weakness in the dollar (i.e. breaking significant support, 83 was one of my marks) before making moves. but had also contemplated awaiting the breaking of 71, but not sure i have the stomach to wait that out.
i'm not sure if these guys are pulling the plug on the dollar (i.e. ceasing support since they've plundered us for some $15 trillion FRNs), or if they're just losing control (i highly doubt they are).
just dropping these thoughts into the open forum....back to studying anatomy!
oh...another thing, the curious thing for me, is my understanding that the dollar's "relative" strength over the past 9 mos or so is because it's the backlash as a reserve currency, or if it's just because of the dollar's measurement against the other currencies. Honestly, i believe it's both, which should make this drop that much stronger now.
curious to hear perspectives!
Jon Nadler (Kitco) is ridiculing gold, again.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/may202009A.html
The $-FI wants gold to remain a betting-paper just like all the other papers in the giant financial circus. This *is* the present $-standard .
Interesting thoughts : Dollar standard collapse ???
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-dollar-crisis-inflation-or-deflation-2009-5
Prana
Do I max out my CC and buy stuff hoping inflation will take care of the debt?NO. That is high-risk speculation. Do not try to make a profit from this situation unless you can bear high risk. Best is to invest as much of your savings in conservative issues (gold, gold shares etc.) as you can without losing any sleep over it. Do not speculate your future cash flow by accruing debt now.
We do not know what the future brings and how it will play out on a personal level.
For example, I have 50% of my savings in gold-related stuff and the rest just in cash at the bank, with some at home. The investment is half in physical gold and half in gold shares. I have a approximate target for the shares and as soon as they reach it, I am selling them and buying physical immediately. I am not holding them (well maybe just a tenth of them for the grandkids..) even if POG goes through the roof. If they do not reach the target before POG goes ballistic, I am taking my losses if any and swapping the shares for physical. If neither happens, I hold the position until resolution, this way or that.
BTW, I am in euroland so my cash-holding risk is somewhat less, although how much I do not know. I only purchase stuff with my CC that I know I can pay without eating my savings at the moment (this is what we shold do in ALL circumstances anyway).
i'm of the opinion that the dollar is done, and most likely this year. i'm willing to bet a little on that, and if necessary, use a little of my savings to pay that off should I be wrong.
The way I see it, with credit card reform here in the US on the near horizon, and with my ability to pay much greater than many others in this country, and with having all these potentially useable electronic credits (in the form of unused credit limit) that will likely be contracted anyway at some point....:
could it not be a good idea to leverage the BAD "money" (credit cards) to buy things of real value in case the system truly does go to shit (I live in a very urban apartment near some very low socio-economic areas).
Again, from my perspective, paying a minimum payment for things which are likely to continue to inflate (or hyper-inflate) as the dollar remains weak/despondent, seems like a good idea.
Alternatively, I can allow the nearly bankrupt credit card companies contract my good credit (as they're beginning to do to many throughout the US), and then I will be dependent upon tapping into my real money to pay for those things before that real money has realized its value.
I'm not sure why I shouldn't seriously consider this, but am very open to hearing the criticisms in case I missed something big (hence my posting it here).
Thanks for your thoughts, Aleksandar
Hello Prana,
You asked if I had thoughts on buying essentials on margin. I do not recommend this, although I know some people who have done just that. It is risky because there are carrying costs, unless you simply plan to default on the debt (not recommended). As they say, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But it sounds like you can probably afford a little gamble. But just realize, that is exactly what it is, a gamble.
I completely agree with Alek. In fact, his "portfolio" is almost exactly like the Prudent Squirrel recommends, who I highly respect. Depending on how much "savings" you actually have, I think it is reasonable to fall somewhere between Alek and Anonymous (at 90% in physical gold). But all paid off. Not on margin.
I do believe we are close something big happening (less than a year, maybe even much closer). But I also believe the smartest strategy is to be as much out of debt as possible, and to focus on holding real good that are paid in full, along with some cash.
My thoughts on the dollar strength. I too think it is both the deleveraging (reserve currency status) and the way the forex markets are structured ("relative" strength). The dollar may very well be crashing right now even though we cannot see it. "Value is in the minds of men", and this may be crashing. At some point the interventions (like gold price suppression and forex shenanigans) will be forced to end and then the true devaluation of the dollar that has been happening will be quickly exposed.
Most importantly, make moves that RELIEVE stress, not moves that could cause stress. This is SO important. We are entering a very stressful time and stress can cause all kinds of nasty disease. No debt and paid off goods is the best way to attack the future in my humble opinion.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
Prana, read this past post on this blog.
Look, you can game the system with the CC, but I am afraid that it will be faster to game you instead. If you are going to do it, hedge yourself accordingly.
Besides, I am one of those that is uber-debt-adverse, so you may look for more varied advice.
aleksandar, i am hedged, per se. I am only doing this to buy stores of food and other items for health/pandemic scares and just figure that it could be hedged by the fact that even for the small amount I have, gold/silver should go up by more than 10%/year in the coming few years and if not, dollars will be. so I should be good in any case, but that's why i'm feeling it out; seeing what my real risks are.
One thing many people have mentioned is to GET OUT OF DEBT. But I guess I wonder whether it's better to have far fewer real assets and no debt, or to leverage unsecured debt for real things in case the system does crash (in the various ways it might). this is my ultimate question, to which I don't have a solid answer as of yet.
FOFOA, thanks for your thoughts. I realize it's a gamble, but one I haven't felt better about taking. I'm not sure i'm going to, but in hearing that CC companies are already starting to cut good customers' limits and cut them off entirely (and I'm someone who pays my bills off every month), worries me. I'd like to use the credit to my advantage especially while the dollar has even a little bit of "value" left (yes i realize that a 97% drop from 1912 levels hardly represents value...hence my quotation marks :)
thank you for your thoughts in addition to aleksandar's. I know i've discussed this matter with many friends and we've bounced numerous ideas around.
I'm a student who is currently relying on grad-school loans to pay my bills, so I don't need to take on debt, but would be able to make payments on that debt, especially when I go to medical school here in a year or two.
as always...bouncing ideas off of you and the forum. especially in the hopes that you may enlighten someone (me?) on this forum and get them to think more deeply about plans they may make in reacting to the current scenario.
WHO is buying this crap !?
Revival hopes push down dollar.
By Krishna Guha and Tom Braithwaite in Washington and Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: May 20 2009 15:38 | Last updated: May 21 2009 00:24
The US dollar fell to its lowest level of the year on Wednesday as Tim Geithner hailed signs of healing in financial markets and minutes showed the Federal Reserve had seen indications of economic stabilisation at its April policy meeting.
Traders said the decline in the US currency was associated with hopes of financial and economic recovery. Such expectations are encouraging investors to buy riskier assets and abandon risk-aversion strategies that favoured US Treasury bills.
>>> $-Digit circulation has practically come to a standstill.
Devalue the dollar,...add more $-digits to the system,...talk it all up and hope that things start turning around, again.
Spend...spend...spend !?
But the entire world is catching "Japanitis".
@SatyaPranava,
You may be caught up in the middle of it right now, but worrying about the dollar and gold should take second fiddle to being a student. No one can ever take away true knowledge. No one can take away talent. No one can devalue artistic ability. The aspect of being human far out weights any currency or token of exchange. Set a path to a productive life and finish in the top of your class!
Gold is a treasure destine for overachievers. Set yourself up on a path of high productivity and gold will find its way to you.
At the same time, we are all students – in one way or another – as we walk our own paths in life. The better the student, the better set of skills one has to tackle the next day.
Ender’s advice – Gold makes great life insurance, but can’t replace a life.
Gary Dorsh (snip):
The United States has become dangerously dependent upon the whims of foreign investors, to help finance its $2-trillion budget deficit this year, and prevent a surge in long-term interest rates, which would otherwise, deal a devastating blow to the US-economy. If bond or currency traders detect that big investors in US-government bonds, - such as China, Japan, OPEC, Russia, and Brazil, have ceased to buy US Treasury debt, or worse yet, are becoming net sellers, it could spark a sharp slide in US-Treasury notes, sending yields sharply higher, and ignite a free-fall in the US-dollar.
Last week, the US Treasury tried to reassure bond and currency traders, that foreign investors haven’t abandoned the American debt markets, despite the avalanche of new debt that is swamping the market. The US Treasury claims that China and Japan were net buyers of a combined $48.5-billion of Treasuries in March, and that Moscow was a net buyer of $8.3-billion. Yet the reliability and accuracy of the TIC report should be viewed with a grain of salt, and a healthy dose of suspicion, - perhaps, the figures were conjured-up under the guise of “mark-to-make-believe” accounting.
But President Barack Obama’s stimulus program could boomerang and have a destabilizing effect on the US-economy, if interest rates shoot higher. No one is asking who will purchase $1-trillion of US Treasuries between now and September. Once that colossal amount of paper is bought, who will purchase another $5-trillion of Treasury paper over the next four-years, as the US-government plunges deeper into insolvency? The Federal Reserve would be forced to print (monetize) vast quantities of US-dollars to pay the principal and interest on the national debt that is not covered by tax revenue.
>>> Exit : INFLATE & DEVALUE !
News :
UAE quits Gulf monetary union
By Robin Wigglesworth in Abu Dhabi
Published: May 20 2009 14:18 | Last updated: May 20 2009 14:18
The United Arab Emirates on Wednesday abandoned long-held plans to join a Gulf monetary union after objecting to a decision to locate the central bank in Saudi Arabia.
>>> By sticking on to the $-system,...the ME will join the $-inflation and devaluation.
Devalue against "the precious" !
The yuan !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/finance/comment/5356509/China-is-preparing-for-a-world-where-the-yuan-trumps-the-dollar.html
thanks Aleksandar, FOFOA, and Ender. I'm still sitting on the fence, the same place i've been sitting for 8 mos on this issue. i appreciate the perspectives, all. and i'm doing just fine in school and not "worried" for the most part. I'm just wondering if I shouldn't be a bit better prepared with regard to food and health and those things.
Prana,
Randy on USAGold had a good commentary after an article today; How to protect against inflation...
"A modestly sized home mortgage (with a fixed rate) makes perfect sense insofar as you need to live somewhere, but leveraging yourself into a bigger house (or houses) than you actually need in the name of investment can be problematic insofar as they incur property taxes on assessed value and various insurance and maintenance expenses — both of which can rise to the point of becoming cumbersome in times of inflation.
The advantage of gold is that it has no maintenance expense and there are no annual property taxes assessed against your holdings. A purchase of gold gives you a chance to “lock in” the current value of your currency before it loses purchasing power, and best of all, it is like buying a house without committing to a particular neighborhood.
In effect, because gold is liquid, indestructible and portable, your golden property acts as an easily up- or down-sizable house which is always in the perfect neighborhood of your choice where there is no wear & tear to confront and no property tax assessments.
Having your own home is the American dream, and having a goodly stockpile of gold on hand should be a standard part of that overall scene. For renters it should go without saying that gold becomes an even more important component of their personal wealth.
Physical gold is the antithesis of paper-pumping Wall Street; physical gold is going Main Street."
You may not be ready for "the perfect house in the perfect neighborhood", but gold (and a little silver) also plays the same role in survival gear. I have said it before on this blog, stocking up for survival can be a costly and never-ending proposal. In the future only some of the things you prepare for will come to pass. Probably not all of them. So having some gold is like having exactly what you will need in the future, because it will enable you to get it when no one else can. Of course several months of food and water should be prepared for. But for the rest, gold (and silver) will likely be the best survival tool.
FOFOA
Would anyone consider this relevant?
@Anon
WHO is buying this crap !?
The US dollar fell to its lowest level of the year on Wednesday as Tim Geithner hailed signs of healing in financial markets and minutes showed the Federal Reserve had seen indications of economic stabilisation at its April policy meeting.
Does not make much sense indeed. However, they have let the S&P slip quite a bit today. Perhaps the PPT is buying it after all...
FOFOA
What is your gold pecentage?
I'm in for roughly 10 percent, plus a bit in silver. Also some gold stocks. The rest is still in cash (euro).
I'll probably increase gold a bit on monday after it gets hammered.
More fun one China !
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=RET&artid=161417
Shanti
@Martijn,
Seems a focus on one side of the coin.
As on Ivo's blog, it maid be seen also in another light. If Gold would be their currency for Oil than there is no need for a CB.....
Shanti
Yes Martijn, the GCC (postponement of MU) story is indeed very relevant in my opion.
The GCC is (remains) divided and choses to stick to $-inflation & devaluation for a number of geopolitical reasons.
In exchange, the $-regime will reward with some free-er goldprices on condition that they remain $-loyal.
One can buy a lot (time & oil priced in $) with the appropiate governance of goldmetal flows (exchange) and its price.
That's what the $-regime's power is all about.
I was expecting some ME states to announce their official goldholdings if their monetary union would fly. Now that the goldprice will start to float somewhat freeer,...no need to publicly announce the amount of gold in the vaults. In sharp contrast with Russia (+ 6 tonnes) and China,...who are not so $-loyal.
So, if the global $-hegemon satisfies the oil-owners with a correct oilprice ($70+) + available goldmetal with a rising international buying power,...all is well for the time being.
This doesn't mean that the US$-regime can now stop putting its house (deficits) in order. They are only buying some more time...
Financial Times :
China has long way to go to dislodge dollar
By Geoff Dyer
Published: May 21 2009 18:47 | Last updated: May 21 2009 18:47
China is on the offensive. Long a bystander in international economic affairs, Beijing has in recent weeks announced a string of initiatives for remoulding the global financial system. And they all have one target – knocking the US dollar off its perch.
Last month, China said it hoped eventually to see the US dollar replaced as the main global reserve currency by a basket of significant currencies and commodities. Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the central bank, argued that the current dollar-based system was too vulnerable to financial crises.
Peeling the onion layer per layer...
Alan Greenspan says US banks must raise 'large' amounts.
Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that the global financial crisis is not over yet and that major US banks must still raise "large" amounts of money before recovery can begin.
Anony and Martijn,
About the "postponement of the GCC plans for a MU". The common currency -the khaleeji- is planned for > 2010. And even then it will probably follow the path of the euro: first as an electronic credit system and slowly replace the existing currency first in international trade and then in reality for the citizens. So, we are speaking here for a very long term plan. The effect of the current postponement is not that big. Besides, what do we really know about whether it is posponed or just delayed - maybe waiting for a resolution of something else on a different level? They never let that known to the public and all we get is just the "geography story" (where to locate the seat of the ME CB), as Cerckel puts it.
In any case, the khaleeji is something for the future, a glimpse of the state of things past the resolution of the current crysis. The ME states still do not have the political might (nobody has) to challlenge the current system in such a blatant way as to introduce a yet another supra-national currency that competes with the $. It took Europe 30 years to get that stuff done!
I find Shanty's article far more interesting:
“Since the establishment of DMCC, there has been a strong effort to boost gold trade ties between Dubai and China. As a major hub for gold, Dubai has much to offer to China in fostering trade opportunities and sharing expertise,” said Ahmed bin Sulayem, executive chairman, DMCC.I have a feeling that the Chineese want in on The Deal: cheap oil for gold! The West's monopoly (the LME) on a oil-gold conuterflow pipeline has a competitor!
Walter de Wit, head of Commodities Research at Standard Bank stated that the investment case for gold still remains strong, although it can be affected if prices continue to remain high. He added that if gold becomes the 'official' reserve currency for many central banks, there will be sustainable support for gold.Meneer de Wit, how dare you mention "gold", "reserve currency" and "central bank" in one sentence! Blasphemy! My God, what has the world come to. People saying things out of the script.
debt clock anyone?
Apparently, Foreign CBs have sold US government debt to the FED today, in one of its QE sessions. It is responsible for the movement we saw. Deninnger has a post about it. He calls the foreign CBs "Real Money". Ha!
Denninger, the deflationist-par-excellence, has changed the vocabularly, is now taking notice of the effects of QE, deflation-be-damned, and seems to be in favour of high interest rates Volcker style.
What deal are they going to do now to sustain high IRs? Sell Alaska to the Chineese?
Hello All,
I have visitors today and tomorrow leaving me not much time to rummage through the news. Thanks for comments which help me feel connected!
FOFOA
FOFOA, all,
General question on freegold.
Doesn't storing wealth in gold mean that it sits idle? After all wealth is excess capacity above all. Storing excess capacity means not using it for productive means, which I don't believe is the best use I could think of. What is your take on that?
And here is some beauty for the weekend (slideshow).
just saw pollack's video at jesse's cafe, but it's interesting to hear his possible scenarios. slightly contrary to him, i was actually thinking that we'd be going to fall into the stocks up, dollar down category and here was my thinking.
many people can be fooled into thinking that everything is doing well when the market is heading up, and with the $ going down, it makes it appear as though the stocks are going up. Even though this is a phantom effect (as it's really just the start of hyperinflation). But its enough of an effect that I think would fool the general public, who still in my opinion and experience (here in the midwest) seem not to care about where their money is. also, i remember reading a while back that stocks do very well during hyperinflationary times (though really only for the owners of companies) because they're producing and selling real things of value and are producing.
while i would assume this stock move would eventually be more limited to mostly necessities, is there a difference then between a Wiemar HI vs an Argentine HI, and esp a Zimbabwean HI?
what gives? what are all of your thoughts on this video?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDlc33hSDjA&feature=player_embedded
Jim Willie !
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1242973800.php
14) The Germans have demanded all of their gold held in custodial accounts inside the United States to be returned to German soil. The story is not public, but details have come to me from a private source close to the action. The Germans have also given counsel for Dubai to demand all of their gold held in custodial accounts inside London to be returned to Dubai, where a new gold trading center will spring up. In my view, THIS IS THE BIGGEST NEWS FOR GOLD THIS ENTIRE YEAR.
===>>> Hold tight
Hello Prana,
I watched the video. I cannot give you an encouraging opinion after watching. I think that fourth quadrant is our unavoidable destination at this point. We will probably bounce between quadrants 2 and 3 another time or two, but we are headed to quadrant 4 without an immediate major change in leadership at all levels (extremely unlikely). This is what all my post on this blog (especially the ones on hyperinflation) are about.
I would not say that stocks do well during hyperinflation. Sure, they go up in nominal price (at first) in the hyperinflating currency, but they plummet in real value, because the hyperinflation represents not only the collapse of the currency but the collapse of the system which supports your paper claims (stocks). All real things do relatively well in hyperinflations, but necessities and PM's seem to do the best. Today's world has lost touch with what the term "necessities" even means. These things are NOT necessities... Cadillac Escalades, Hybrid vehicles, McMansions (or any house over 1,500 sq ft for that matter), Fast Food Joints, Universal Healthcare, Stocks, Bonds, Pension Funds, Mutual Funds, NYSE, NASDAQ, Central Banks, paper money, etc, etc... Soon we will learn the difference between luxury and necessity. This is my humble opinion. (By the way, I have several of the above items. But mine are paid in full and I do realize they are not necessities. Most people do not realize this and are making interest payments on these things.)
Weimar was a hyperinflation primarily from foreign denominated (unpayable) debt, Argentina was a largely digital, electronic credit hyperinflation (also based on debt), Zimbabwe was a hyperinflation by extremely corrupt and self-serving leaders done in isolation. I believe the dollar's (and all fiat money) hyperinflation will encapsulate all of the above, to create something new for the history books. The only question is the timing.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
Shanti,
Excellent Willie! Highly recommended.
Thanks.
FOFOA
shanti, willie was great.
martijn, that was amazingly beautiful, thank you!
fofoa, we're saying the same thing (i thought i had posted this already...but i must have not sent it), that stocks will appear to be doing better, but in actuality, will fall in terms of real value. i was just thinking of prices when watching pollack's video. thanks for righting the ship (or my little Sunfish attempt at sailing :) ).
have a great weekend!
"The dollar is the world's reserve currency. It gives us special privileges... In a flash hyperinflation will set in and the dollar will be doomed. It could happen now, or it could happen after the next credit-induced boom and bust. Inevitably it will happen. Remember this, no country has ever been privileged to have a paper reserve currency. Reserves were always gold and silver. We've abused this privilege. So much of our paper exists outside the U.S., it adds to the certainty of runaway inflation when the dollars reserve status ends and dollar holders dump. As its role as the world's reserve currency once helped the dollar, so it will reinforce the doom of the dollar.
First comes runaway inflation, then inevitably a depression. There is no defense against depression when your currency fails. A worthless dollar can no longer be used to bail out failing banks and bankrupt businesses. There's no stimulus left. The government is out of bullets, the treasury broke, and the Federal Reserve impotent. All the economic sins of the past come home to roost. For awhile, it will be far worse than the dirty thirties. In effect we will have hit the gutter."
-James R. Cook, May 22
Hyperinflation and Depression
FOFOA,
I am sure you will enjoy reading this . It is something entirely different that what we are used to.
No, its not an article.
I am reading it now and already found some gems.
Looks interesting Alek. Long but interesting.
It appears to be the most recent Bilderberg Report leaked (from the 1980 meeting) and appears that it was leaked only two weeks ago.
Bilderberg is a highest level think tank held in secret so as to discuss world events without fear of reprisal. In other words, the secrecy is meant to allow the participants to speak freely. Also, they speak not in their official capacity, but are encouraged to speak their personal thoughts. Of course these Thoughts often make their way into official circles. This makes it very interesting.
Also, the date, 1980, makes it potentially applicable to Another's message. People like Another are privy to the kind of Thoughts that emerge from these meetings decades earlier than the rest of us.
In the very first paragraph of the 116 page report this line, "...the energy crisis partly due to the oil-producing countries' control of their main source of wealth." acknowledges an awareness that we should find very interesting.
I do not subscribe to the Alek Jones meme regarding the Bilderbergs. I believe the truth is far more mundane. But clearly the Bilderberg meetings are worth studying. Elitist think tanks have always been around, all throughout history. And they obviously have power to affect our reality simply because of their individual position as leaders in industry and government.
I wonder what is the probability that this report is a hoax? Probably unlikely, but because of "the meme" it is still worth weighing.
Alek, I am reading through this report slowly. Feel free to post your observations and gems as you go. Include page numbers. This could be fun!
FOFOA
I had quickly scanned that report a couple of weeks ago.
As FOFOA already remarked, no way to prove its authenticity.
As far as economics is involved (I scanned on that) the report reports a rather open discussion, where there certainly does not seem to be a masterplan to enslave all humans or the like.
But again, authenticity is unproven and besides 1980 is quite a while ago.
Yes, indeed FOFOA. I agree with all your Thoughts. Although dated, it is valuable because of the facts that:
1. Such a report exists (it has been said that no written documents are prepared)
2. The gravity of the discussed matters (look at the list of participants!)
3. The insight into the way the West's Elite thinks and the mechanics of the relationships, especially because this is a conference where there is no "one sided view" provided, as for example in books on foreign policy where only one side (the book's writer's) is heard.
Of course, it can be a hoax. We cant know that. But I have the feeling that it is genuine. Nevertheless, I am interested in the contents of what is written and even though it can be a collection of random articles, they are valuable.
I also think that if there is a clear connection in the semantics (wording) or the articles where subtle hints exist as to the location, present grops or the fact that they are on a conference, we can conclude it is genuine. It is quite difficult to hoax 100+ pages of that.
I finished the "French Working Paper" and will post some excerpts. By the way, the content is really dated stuff (also a hint that it is not a hoax).
Althoug I can't be denied that markets are manipulated, here is somewhat of an explaination for the bad-news rallies.
Ah, I cant copy-paste the text from the pdf. I would need an OCR (on screen recognition) for that. Tried a free one, it didnt work at all (got garbage).
Jammer!
(in English: too bad!)
Will continue reading though.
Alek and Martijn,
I am not an expert in forgery identification, but I must say that after reading a few pages I am a little more suspicious than I was initially. Here are a few of the things that lit up my "detector".
The "voice" in the first part, "French Working Paper" struck me as not consistent with what I would expect a report like this to sound like. For one thing, I would not expect such a heavy use of punctuation marks like the exclamation point indicating strong feelings. I would expect a more monotone report.
Also, the heavy use of the "Question?" then "Answer!" technique seems more like someone trying to make a point than I would expect in a report written after a secret meeting like the Bilderbergs. Who are they trying to make the point to? Me?
Also note that the report was apparently produced on letter-sized paper and then bound in some way. The first few pages were copied or scanned from a bound report (as you can see the seam). Also, the pages were printed double sided, as you can see a little of the back side of each page bleeding through. This is also evident in the page numbering which alternates left and right for even and odd pages. But starting on page 10 the pages scanned seem to have never been bound. Also note the color change and the lack of any bleed through.
From a typographical perspective, I am also suspicious of this text. First of all, notice the full justification of the entire text. This was certainly available in 1980. But... some of the other aspects were quite rare at that time.
First of all, the full justification was achieved through proportional spacing of the characters. Also, the spacing between the words themselves, called kerning, was used to create a seamless full justification.
"Desktop publishing" was not widely available until 1985. Only professional newspapers and publishers were capable of this in 1980.
Lastly, note the lack of "rivers of white" in the text. This particular anomaly is reduced through the kerning and proportional spacing of modern word processors.
All of the above was possible in 1980, but it was not easy and simple like it is today and not widely available. And even though the Bilderbergs certainly had access to the publishing industry (they own it), these techniques would have only been used on text that was meant for wide publication, like books, magazines or newspapers, and even then not always. It seems curious to me that such a long report from a secret meeting that was certainly not meant for wide distribution would bear so many fingerprints of a modern word processor.
Just some things to consider. I am not claiming to have identified a forgery.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
I read the "American paper" and can say that it is safe to skip. Much talk about nuclear 'detente' and matters which were resolved decades ago. At the end there is a section about oil which may be relevant but has nothing new. "This Bilderberg meeting" is used once or twice in the text.
Now I am reading the discussion part, about Iran (and the hostages - current stuff in April 1980). This is in the form of expanded meeting munites.
Those are good observations FOFOA. But I still dont think that anyone would hoax this. It is just too much work to write all that. The only thing that comes to mind is that someone has copy-pasted minutes of a general meeting in those times, collected them and presented it as a genuine Bilderberg document.
I quickly checked the document from 1954 and the typography is not like this one from 1980.
Anyway, I will keep reading, genuine or not.
Martijn,
You say, "Althoug I can't be denied that markets are manipulated, here is somewhat of an explaination for the bad-news rallies."
I liked the article. But please explain your point a little more.
FOFOA
A few pointers to the text that I find interesting in our context:
Page 11 (text labeled as 9), the first paragraph, already noticed by FOFOA
Page 43 (text labeled 45), third paragraph, beginning with "An Italian dated the onset..."
The next page, fourth paragraph, beginning with "A Briton conceded that..."
And I think that I struck gold with the next one. It is a must-read.
Page 77 (document label 79) is the third part of the German Working Paper on Economy and it looks at monetary policy. It is strinkingly resonant with the current situation. Some words that are mentioned: balance of payment equilibrium of the US, price stability in the context of the soon to-be-born European Monetary Fund and which is still today the key phrase that the ECB uses, exponential increases in the foreign currency reserves of OPEC countries in 1979, Special Drawing Rights of the IMF and yes it also mentiones gold.
this might sound kind of superfluous, and my idea is not necessarily related to THIS document. However, I believe this subject should be explored in its own thread, if possible.
I'll just share that from my background and with the investigative journalists i used to (and the ones that are still alive and am still in touch with) run with in Israel, the alex jones side of bilderbergs fits much more closely what they had understood since the 70s.
personally, i don't believe there is anyway to prove whose theories are correct re: them, and how to separate quality info from mis/disinfo. However, I think it's important to consider that this group does have an agenda, irrespective of our specific awareness thereof.
with that being said, we must consider teh power and potential desires of the opponent, since it seems that this type of power has historically always tried to ensure its monopoly thereon. it's foolish in my opinion to think any differently.
with that said, i EXPECT that alex jones is fed a ton of disinfo to discredit him, w/even official evidence so he can prove his point. However, I still expect that a large majority of what he says is dead on and is often backed by the mainstream press, and confirmed by excellent and lesser alternative journalists over the years (I have been aware of this for some 12 years now).
These are the same guys who were pointing out Shimon Peres's treason in Israel re: the vatican and jerusalem (playing itself out the world over at this very moment). They were calling this over 15 years ago. I even did my part to try to get to the truth as a student govt president, student journalist, and student activist then. Peres denied the positions which he now openly supports (not that this is any surprise to those who konw politics).
anyway, I just believe it's an important level of power about which too little is known, but which some great and fabulous heads should be able to group think some deeper understanding, esp. from those who believe the bilderbergs are powerful, but don't have some malevolent agenda.
btw, GREAT eye fofoa. i haven't read the document yet, but plan to if possible.
but please consider, esp considering they met in greece a week ago, a separate topic for this.
Prana,
There is no unity among even the Gulf states who hate the United States and its dollar. To think that there is unity among a Bilderberg Group that meets once in a while is a fantasy.
Alex Jones has a very large following because his message fits the desires of a great many people that feel trampled by the system. Many "investigative journalists" fit very nicely into this group.
But there are even more people that feel very strongly about the mainstream version of the story. They play along with the system and it usually serves them very well. They will defend this story to the bitter end.
As in all things, the truth lies somewhere in the middle... hidden from plain sight.
I view Another as an emergent anomaly from this middle. He is passing his truth on to those that will listen. This brings his message to 1/4 away from what is known openly. And 3/4 away from the speculations of the likes of Alex Jones.
This is the course I steer. There is a very real risk to credibility when one steps into the unknown. I do not believe in it, therefore I have no desire to fight the credibility battle.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
FOFOA
On the article What You Don’t Know Makes You Nervous my reasoning is as follows:
The article generally argues that we prefer the knowing of suffering over the suffering of the unknown.
If that holds we would value a situation of knowing bad economic news over one prior to knowing it, hence any situation after new economic figures are published beats the situation before publishing. Hence the rallies are not related to the hight of the figures presented, but rather to the fact that they are presented.
Off course this does not explain all, and I persists that markets have been manipulated upwards, but perhaps this article provides some understanding as to why (some part of) the public has bought it so far.
I finished reading the thing. Didnt read the Canadian Paper and the section about Security (was already tired).
As I already said, the German economic paper and the discussion on the economic session is worth a read.
I dont have all my thoughts arranged in coherent order at the moment, but may write something if time and energy permits.
BTW, Martijn, there is a menion of an office of the Bilderbergers in Leiden. I cant find the reference in the document (it is frustratingly non-searchable) but I found some posts on the internet where people have already contacted someone in that office and allegedly received a fax detailing the participants.
Man I wish to read the proceedings from this conference as well.
Of course, the possibility remains that it is all a hoax.
Hi Alek,
I must admit that I am thoroughly agnostic as to the credibility of this document. In the discussion parts of the document, the parts I have read ring true enough. Occasionally it seems that the writer slips into the past tense while discussing current situations in 1980. But of course this is a common error and not proof of anything.
I did like the paragraph following yours on page 44, beginning with E. The Current American Mood.
On a side note, I converted Martin Armstrong's pdf, Looking Behind the Curtain, using an online OCR program on my Mac. I could not find one that worked well on the PC. But this is called demo-grab-mac. You just grab a portion of the pdf and the program sends it in to "homebase" and fires back the text. There is a lot of junk that gets through that you need to clean up. It was quite a lot of work doing the Armstrong piece, but I thought it worked remarkably well overall.
FOFOA
@Alek
I've read about the Leiden office also, on zaplog.nl I believe.
Just finished roughly scanning B report.
The precious information i have been able to extract form ANOTHER & FOA have imvho 100 times more value than the B pages.
Remember just like what N.R. used to say "Let me issue and control a Nation's money and I care not who makes its laws".
To me B is a kind of cover-up for even a more powerfull entity. Who can be (mis)used at theis convinience.
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