Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Green Shoots Open Forum


Headlines:

Hungry: Arizona decides to cannibalize self
Legislators are considering selling the House and Senate buildings where they've conducted state business for more than 50 years.
AzCentral

SP500 PE Ratio is Now at a Mind Blowing 723!
Previous all time high was 46.
Safehaven

5yr Treasury Auction Fails
That's right, FAILS. No, you didn't hear it reported this way and won't, but that's the math. Next try... 7yr tomorrow.
Denninger

MOPE Spin: "Call it Lassie, this is a bow wow" - Rick Santelli






And just for fun...

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=6279.0.116.0

>>> American gold !? No thanks !

Anonymous said...

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/07/29/afx6713642.html

CBGA (WAG) goldsales (re-distributions): Only 140 tonnes out of the 500, so far.

Now the IMF yellow shoots are on the agenda. Do we need a WAG-III for this ?

Anonymous said...

Jim Willie : Very (!) good insights !

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie072909.html

>>> China may initiate what I would call "currency nationalism",...in line with the euro filosofy.

Cfr. Liu : The $-regime must be brought to its proper proportions !
No more privileged global $-dominance that is not being "earned".

Will the $-regime "appreciate" the efforts of goodwill the rest of the globe is bringing up as to orderly transition !? I doubt this very much...

Martijn said...

Securitized debt grew nearly 50-fold from 1980 to 2000 -- compared with a mere 3.7-fold increase for bank loans.
If charging interest (ribah) is haram because it shuts the door to risk, then securitizing debt certainly ribah as well.

Martijn said...

One interesting thing I noticed when reading another is that he said that the central bankers running the scheme are "the best-of-the-best". Although I have read enough article on "group think" and "bounded rationality", I would argue that those in charge could not have been blind to the inevitable demise of the dollar. The math simply adds up that way.

If we know this (dollar demise) is a given, is it not funny how it takes so much of our attention away? Every day the blogsphere is full of yet another article on how the dollar must default. Off course such articles contribute to convincing and warning the public at large (and strengthening their own prophecies), but apart from that these articles seem to become less valuable the more they are written.

I realize that such commentary is a little bleak when I am not providing too much of an alternative, but I would want to urge anyone reading this to expand their thoughts. Basically what I am trying to say is to not consider yourself all to smart by believing you can see what others don't, but rather ask yourself what you have missed that relevant others (TPBT) have not.

Although I do not consider myself a conspiracy nut, I simply cannot believe that this crisis comes as such a surprise to those in charge (and we all know that is not congress), and that the dollars demise has not been a regular topic since 1971.

Martijn said...

Jim Willy however is interesting:

With the aid of the USDollar Swap Facility, the USFed has been able to secretly bid on USTBonds from foreign soil, have it appear like foreign bids, and conceal the continued and broadening monetization initiative.

Perhaps this is the answer to the question of what those swaps were used for that was posed a couple of days ago.

Martijn said...

Talk is everywhere one turns that the USGovt has little recourse but to print money and cover their debts. Such moves shift the risk from the USTreasury Bond to the USDollar in clear fashion.

Hasn't this whole game been about a continuous redistribution of risk? It all began years ago by charging ribah (interest), than we figured out ways to securitize interest bearing loans even further and now we are using the modern electronic equivalent of the printing press to yet play risk around again.

Its like trying to squeeze an unwelcome protrusion out of a baloon, but when squeezing one place the bubble inevitably pops up somewhere else. And to make matters worse we continue pumping the balloon for as long as we are able to squeeze the protrusion around.

A final bang should not surprise anyone.

Martijn said...

The Chinese are in town to meet with the USGovt officials on continued debt support. The public will surely NOT be told what is discussed. One informed contact wrote this morning that the US lies as a terminal patient in the Intensive Care Ward, and seeks a death with dignity from its Chinese creditor doctors.

Are we sure that China will take over, or might it be another country as well?

Shanti said...

@FOFOA

You are far ahead of the time with your "on top of the world" version by these Chinese :-)))

@anon
Good info & comments
JW has brilliant insigths lately.

The 'net' is closing further around the $-fraction

Shanti said...

http://www.reuters.com/article/hedgeFundsNews/idUSLNE56T02720090730?rpc=401&

---> This is a double edged sword for $-holders

Anonymous said...

http://www.perjacobsson.org/lectures/1969.pdf

1969 Lamfalussy A. : The monetary role of gold over the next 10 yrs !?

Also read the comments and Q&A.

An old document that today is still burning actual.

A lot of gold-knowledge in a nutshell.

Anoniem said...

@Anon

That link seems to load forever...
Perhaps you could post the doc somewhere?

Anonymous said...

Good document! Worked fine for me. But just for you, Martijn, you can d/l it here for a little while!

1969.pdf

Martijn said...

Great, it's on my computer now, thanks.

Anonymous said...

The collusive manipulations/interventions :

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-gold-market-really-isn-t-about-you-dennis.aspx?article=2232892394G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Chris+Powell

>>> This manipulative intervention power goes "hyper" ! This is NOT evidence of intrinsic strength of the $-system.

The myth of "making money" in the FI is crumbling.

Martijn said...

@Anon

The dollar will fall. They are only buying time and if we know they must know it too, as they are the ones directly dealing with it.

I wonder what their contingency plans look like? They must have plans.

Martijn said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Martijn said...

Fofoa,

I am not quite able to follow foa's reasoning in the troy gold story.

If a one stater Darius of gold, from Cyrus of Persia was worth a very valuable vessel of oil, why utilize the effort to find gold just to trade for some oil. Better to skip the gold production and make the oil.

Don't those things relate? If everyone choses to make oil, would one gold coin not be purchasing more oil after a while? And would that not make it more attractive to go mining for gold instead of producing oil, hence balancing the two?

Anonymous said...

IMF gold-sales > 2010 & 2011 (200+200 tonnes) !

This specified message comes after China/US meeting...

Goldprice will decline to 850$ in 2010 !? Wowwww, that's handy such a precise call.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=ajddFgw1DIzI

FOFOA said...

Three charts from Denninger

"I have a very disturbing pattern here on a few charts today.....

This is a "collapse of government due to spending into bankruptcy" play folks, or at minimum "currency crisis around the corner."

FOFOA said...

Martijn,

Because of the date and time stamp on those posts in The Gold Trail, we have the ability to stalk the past through the date search on the USAGold forum (linked to the right). We can see the discussions that transpired at the same time. I think you will at least find those discussions interesting, even if they don't answer all your questions.

I'll give you a tip if you are interested. "Trail Guide" was an alias FOA used in the forum. Also, I will suggest to you that one or more of those posters is reading this now.

Here is a sample of what you will find around that time:

Much of Another's posts are recorded at the link I posted. If it doesn't work, go to the USAGold Home page and you can find it from there.

Another began posting at a different forum several years ago. Apparently due to poor manners of other members of that forum, he stopped posting there and started posting here. Whoever he is, he values his privacy apparently and did not want his identity revealed. I'm not sure if the host here knows who he is although I recall some post where MK mentioned someone's credentials were extraordinary. But I think that my have been in regard to FOA who is also Trail Guide.

Another's style was difficult for some to follow. Frankly I think it was intentionally cryptic. Friend of Another endeavored to explain what apparently both of them perceive as going on in the global monetary realm.

FOA doesn't seem to want to remain as anonymous as Another. FOA gives a tremendous number of clues to his identity, but I would suggest you never ask nor guess publicly. FOA also seems to genuinely want people to understand what is going on.

Another appears to be gone, probably never to post again. FOA carries on explaining so that we can watch this new market together and learn.

Are they right? Lots of what they predicted has come to pass, inexplicable stuff suggesting that they really are plugged in and know what's going on. Should you trust them? I believe that FOA is very sincere. But that doesn't mean that he might not be wrong. From the beginning these two have said listen to their words, and judge for yourself. That seems to be reasonable advice. As for me, perhaps I have a bit more gold than I would if I had never read Another or FOA. Deep down, I suspect that FOA understands how things work in the world, and he knows what must happen. However, there will be twists that he hasn't foreseen, and the time these events take to happen could be much longer than he believes. NOONE knows. But it is fun to watch this gold market.


FOFOA

Martijn said...

Somewhat interesting interview with Dimitri Orlov on definancialization.

Martijn said...

Marc Faber

I fully agree with David Pauly and in fact believe that one of the most
negative factors for the longer term is that whereas a serious financial
crisis is supposed to clean the system, the current crisis has actually
increased dubious financial practices and reduced financial and economic
transparency. Therefore, the ultimate financial crisis still lies ahead of us!


I tend to agree!

Martijn said...

Don’t misunderstand me. I am ultra negative about the long term
economic and political outlook and, as I indicated above, I think that this
crisis has completely failed to “clean” the system.

Anonymous said...

About A/FOA :

All who made the effort to study their thoughts and act accordingly by stepping completely out of any paper and exchange 100% of the savings in goldmetal,...doubled their PP (in euro) whilst the average paper halved over the same period (one decade) !

Is there one,...ONE,...analyst/economist with the same conclusion and action !? NO, there was/is, NONE !

Today, those economists/analyst even can't give the Crisis a "name".
A/FOA knew exactly what was coming and how to anticipate it "profitably".

Those who study the A. Lamfalussy 1969 text - The role of monetary gold over the next ten years (1969>1979) - will conclude that this thinking was already in line with A/FOA,...and,...that the gold-story is far from over !!!

FOFOA said...

Good interview on King World News with John Rubino of Dollarcollapse.com, including a brief mention of your's truly!

Audio.mp3 (Right-click to d/l)

or

Source page.html

FOFOA said...

Why Bernanke Is in Panic Mode

SNIP:
"Usually, when Ben Bernanke is interviewed, he has the demeanor of a college professor in the presence of freshman students. Stammering and stuttering are therefore a real departure for him. There is a reason for this..."

Jr Deputy Accountant said...

What was the deal with the "I could be your uncle" comment to Geithner? http://www.jrdeputyaccountant.com/2009/08/tim-geithner-chinas-bumbling-nephew-and.html

And why aren't people more outraged about the ARS + LandAmerica + Richmond Fed issue? http://www.jrdeputyaccountant.com/2009/08/richmond-feds-judgment-problem-strikes.html

No green shoots to report from San Francisco.

Anonymous said...

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6736681.ece

China moves to internationalize its currency.

They will make it happen in sync with rising CB gold reserve wealth.

Post a Comment

Post a Comment