Monday, July 18, 2011
Forum 1600
Date: Tue Mar 31 1998 08:32
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Now, with the world awash in "US dollars" and "gold paper", a new asset is being formed to "draw" the oil producers closer to Europe! The offer is the "exact opposite" of the "US dollar agreement", this new offer will drive gold to a value that will allow it to become "the world oil asset and currency".
Date: Sat Apr 25 1998 23:35
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
There will come a time when gold and Euro are as "the same". Not in price or value, but as used for "real money".
Money is not what you afford, you earn it! In the near future, gold money will buy more than dollar money, much more! It is as to compare a one dollar bill to a hundred dollar bill, both money, just one buys more!
Many think the only way gold can rise in dollar terms is if USA prints too many! Truly, they have printed too many already. Gold will rise in dollar terms, many thousands even if treasury inflates currency no more.
6/14/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!)
From Sam: For whatever percent backing by gold, will the Euro be convertible to physical gold, and by whom (i.e. all or limited)?
ANOTHER: Your question of Euro gold backing? The Euro will not be backed or fixed in gold. It will be the first "modern currency" to hold true "exchange reserves" in gold. It is important to understand that "exchange reserves" of gold are much more powerful a tool for currency defense than gold backing!
8/10/98 Friend of ANOTHER
The Euro will not replace gold, it will evolve into a gold transactional currency. It will also price Euro gold very high, perhaps $6,000 in current dollar terms buying power. However, in actual dollar terms of the future, $30,000 US will reflect the American debt as the negative reserve asset it truly is.
Monday, August 6, 2001 - GOLD @ $267.20 - FOA: "The result will be a massive dollar price rise in gold that performs over several years."
Michael H: "Who says that events since 2001 haven't played out as A/FOA expected?"
Tuesday, January 1, 2002 - Launch of euro notes and coins
Friday, February 8, 2002 - GOLD ABOVE $300
Monday, December 1, 2003 - GOLD ABOVE $400
Thursday December 1, 2005 - GOLD ABOVE $500
Monday, April 17, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $600
Tuesday, May 9, 2006 - GOLD ABOVE $700
Friday, November 2, 2007 - GOLD ABOVE $800
Monday, January 14, 2008 - GOLD ABOVE $900
Monday, March 17, 2008 - GOLD ABOVE $1000
Monday, November 9, 2009 - GOLD ABOVE $1100
Tuesday, December 1, 2009 - GOLD ABOVE $1200
Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - GOLD ABOVE $1300
Wednesday, November 9, 2010 - GOLD ABOVE $1400
Wednesday, April 20, 2011 - GOLD ABOVE $1500
Monday, July 18, 2011 - GOLD ABOVE $1600
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284 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 284 of 284I am with sir Winston !
nice one blondie
@ M:
It's entirely possible that Bitcoin is helping the Euro, but in what capacity and to what extent is virtually (pun intended) impossible to quantify. My personal assumption is that the effects are negligible at present. Also, what would prevent mass perspective from viewing the Euro in a negative light along with all other centrally-managed currencies? How many people understand the structural differences between the dollar and the Euro? It's like an angry mob lashing out at police wearing dark blue uniforms - it makes no distinction between anyone else wearing the same style, or even a uniform in general: police, firefighters, paramedics, etc. The ones trying to help are just as likely to be swept away.
As far as traditional uses, the two currencies do function the same way. However, the Euro is not at all the same as Bitcoin in some critical aspects. Yes, they both can exist in an entirely digital form, but that's where they diverge. Although they do help facilitate transfer among other currencies and services, Bitcoin requires no centralized clearing houses or exchanges of any kind. Even with the arbitrary limits currently imposed, its structure affords a highly self-correcting mechanism that can restrict or increase supply far more rapidly and accurately than any central bank. There is also no effective way to restrict its flow across borders in any manner which the Euro might encounter - all national or regional internet access would have to be disconnected to slow it down. In effect, the Bitcoin system cannot be attacked directly without seriously inhibiting necessary infrastructure; indirect efforts may prove as costly as the war on drugs if not undertaken very soon.
The Bitcoin network structure is being used to pry open the current stranglehold on domains set in place by the major registrars. A spinoff called Namecoin is aiming to decentralize domain name registration. It's actually a viable solution, but the same issues with critical mass adoption of the service arise. The potential with both systems is as strong as the shakeup that occurred with file-sharing in the media industries. As with Bitcoin, Namecoin is promising and worthy of observation for now. Other uses might be implemented also. Don't get me started on 3D printing...
In the immediate future there isn't enough information yet to gauge where Bitcoin is headed. Over the next year or two we should see how it behaves in response to events in the global financial arena. Until then I'm warily supportive of, yet optimistic toward the Bitcoin network as a much more adaptable alternative to FOFOA's Euro position in a Freegold world.
VTC, I do not follow all the ins and outs of allocated and unallocated, or leasing. But it seems to me that the BBs can be hedged on both sides as long as they have some kind of call, either through leasing or some other arrangement, on CB gold. That way they can satisfy the hedge fund/institutional demand on paper. Presumably the price risk is held by the CBs or whatever entity is leasing,and the ultimate delivery risk is born by the Comex and the buyers of both allocated and unallocated (really, what does allocated mean if it's someone else's leased gold?).
I may have this all wrong, so just looking for clarification. And are all these buyers of physical gold just buying "allocated"? In which case they may be second in liine so to speak, depending on where the vault is located and who controls it?
Hey DP
Same ballpark, so just curious, nothing serious. :)
TF
Folks,
Great information on this forum, thanks to FOFOA and all who comment here for helping this shrimp to wrap his brain around the freegold concept. I have read many of the posts here, but am still unclear on this point:
I understand that PG is unique as a store of wealth, and that a fiat currency is best for the facilitation of commerce. I see that gold is further unique because it serves no purpose, other than to store wealth, that cannot be accomplished through lesser metals. Finally, I understand that throughout the world many governments, institutions, and giants agree on gold's unique stature, and see why it currently is and will increasingly be in high demand as a safe haven while the world economy wobbles out of control. Got it.
I'm having trouble understanding why gold will so wildly outpace silver during the great unwinding. Yes, gold is a clear first choice, but is silver not a clear second choice? And isn't the world economy large enough to accomodate a second choice, and a third,fourth, etc? If (my wild assed guesstimates)90% of the global wealth rushes to gold, and only 8% to silver (2% into office chairs or seeds), is silver not due to rise as parabolically as well?
If silver fails to shoot up in value along with gold, then would 10k gold, or coins with only a percentage of gold content fail to rise in value as well?
It seems logical to me that if gold were to experience a tenfold surge, then silver could possibly see eightfold, office chairs and seeds threefold, and so on.
Is there a post that would explain the logic that will influence gold and silver values with such discrepancy?
Hi Billy C Vinson
Sure. Look up a post by FOFOA titled, Focal point gold.
TF
@ Constata
They even put interest on credit card debt into the GDP. It's all a part of breaking the speedometer rather then slowing down. Maybe this is also why we never see 3% up days in gold. I also think the treasury and Fed do this because they really do believe that they can put up a smoke screen, devalue some past debt and hope that a new technology comes around and lights a rocket under the ass of the world economy.
They have been getting away with it. Its been almost 4 years since the doubling of the Feds balance sheet.
@ Blondie
First, I did read something about the physical IMF gold getting delivered to India, can't remember where.
Second, As for Churchill and Americans doing the right things....
I am not sure on this but when the US defaulted on its gold obligations in 1971, it was a negotiated default with all parties ?
Or did the Americans more or less throw it out there and see if it sticks ?
@ Ramon
The Euro freegold system has already existed and has been shown to work before. It is nothing new.
The concept itself exists in allot of countries except their virtual paper currency floats against the US dollar right now.
Do you think people in Jamaica have read and understood freegold and that is why they have no problem using paper virtual currency for their medium of exchange ? Do you think the millionaires in Jamaica have read and understood freegold and that is why they don't save their wealth in Jamaican dollars ?
Bitcoin could have a huge following and be a glorified PayPal but there is no way oil is going to be priced in Bitcoins. The Bitcoin people on here seem to skip the whole "Flow of oil" part about the Euro.
@Billy C Vinson,
We only need one to perform the function.
The function has never been fully utilized before, so looking to the past is not necessarily indicative of the future.
Look at it this way: it could be Freesilver, but for a couple of things; silver has many industrial applications (aka other functions); all the giants chose gold already.
Bob Dylan: "Don't need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows..."
******
@M,
They don't call it the "Nixon Shock" because it was negotiated.
Wikipedia:
"The Nixon Shock was a series of economic measures taken by U.S. President Richard Nixon in 1971 including unilaterally cancelling the direct convertibility of the United States dollar to gold that essentially ended the existing Bretton Woods system of international financial exchange."
(My emphasis)
"The President and fifteen advisors made that decision without consulting the members of the international monetary system, so the international community informally named it the Nixon shock."
I'm surprised no one else mentioned this story here during the last week, which looks to have legs...
Mundell: Deflation Risk for the Dollar
The Nobel winner says a stable dollar-euro rate is the best economic medicine.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704816604576335250426158790.html?mod=WSJ_article_MoreIn_Opinion
(paid page, first article enough to get in picture)
Interesting story Blondie. A presage of freegold. Maybe these transactions (if they occur) will give us new knowledge of the shadow POG.
Wow! Thanks for that link Blondie. Huge implications there -- and interesting to see they are opting for barter! Remember this quote from FOA in goldtrailfive?
"So, you think we have come a long way from the ancient barter system; where uneducated peoples simply traded different items of value for what they thought they were worth. Crude, slow and demanding, these forms of commerce would never work today because we are just too busy. Think again?"
--Aaron
@ Blondie
So you being sarcastic when you quoted Churchill ?
@M
No.
It seems to me an astute and still most relevant observation by someone who was well placed to make one.
@ Blondie
So the precedent of the "Nixon shock" doesn't concern you one iota concerning physical Euro and other CB gold stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY.....through the transition to freegold.....
I am a conservative Canadian and I have always supported the US but
I don't see any reason why the Eurozone shouldn't send a boat over there and haul all of their gold out of there. Even if they trust the US 100%, why have it there ?
Tradition?
(that was sarcasm)
It made sense other Bretton Woods to have it there.
Fool me once, your the fool, fool me twice......
Whatever, if the ECB or any other central bank somehow gets screwed over this then f*ck em, it serves them right.
@M
Your conjecture all comes down to personal perception. If you believe the USA will screw Europeans -- no one is going to change your opinion. My perspective centers around the fact we are all stuck on the same planet. Granted we see the occasional war here and there and this of course is not good for anyone -- but when we speak about a global system that is tightly interconnected -- to "f*ck" that system is to "f*ck" ourselves. T o "f*ck" up global trade and run the risk of not having access to oil? I don't see it in the cards. Given current infrastructure we all need oil and the rest of the world knows it. When the Nixon Shock arrived – we did take action. Cheap gold for cheap oil. On the surface we abandoned the system, but underneath we kept gold flowing to the right parties.
Do you see what I mean? Do you still think we will screw all of Europe and keep their gold?
--Aaron
@ Aaron
So you are saying that the IF for some reason the US tried to claim the gold that it would derail Freegold and stop the flow of oil. I understand what you mean.I am not sure if I believe the US will screw the world out of gold again. Highly unlikely but you do realize that this is going to come down to the wire. When this USD ponzi blows up, countries will have auditors handling their physical gold and probably even testing it.
Regardless, there is no reason for Europe to have the gold at the FRBNY. Get it TF out of there.
Victor asked how unallocated gold is created. From A Classic Bank Run:
A bank can be "populated" with unallocated gold accounts in two primary ways. It can either be done as a physical deposit by a silly person or by another corporate entity, or else it can occur completely in the non-physical realm as a cashflow event whereby a customer with a surplus account of forex calls up and requests to exchange some or all of it for gold units, whereupon the bank acts as a broker/dealer to cover the deal – occurring and residing on the books as an accounting event among counterparties rather than as any sort of physical purchase. No bread, no breadcrumbs, only a paper trail and metal of the mind. This is how the LBMA can report its mere subset of clearing volumes averaging in the neighborhood of 18 million ounces PER DAY. Just a whole lot of "unallocated gold" digital activity as an ongoing counterparty-squaring exercise.
Jeff,
From A Classic Bank Run:
Thanks, I know that article very well. The point is that the second possibility, i.e. an investor converting US$ into gold as a FOREX transaction, does not work unless the BB accepts price risk.
FOFOA and I agreed that the BBs do not have price risk. (I know that you can choose to believe Max Keiser and that the BBs might in fact be net short, but this was so sort out the logic).
Victor
VTC: so the question remains, who has he gold in unallocated accounts?
-
Interesting blog:
http://blogs.fin24.com/ConstantITEMPurchasingPowerAccounting
via comment on:
http://blogs.fin24.com/Motley.Fool/calculating-the-shadow-gold-price
Slow comments. They happen in every post. Here's a tip. Prepare for a cash economy.
--Aaron
marc faber on the great reset:
http://tinyurl.com/3vw6fnb
From credibility inflation:
"I think it is fair to say that we have finished our 30-year run of high credibility inflation and we are now in the early stages of credibility deflation. "
&
"And as in any Ponzi scheme there comes a point when redemptions can no longer be financed by new marks. I think the tipping point of credibility must come once it is clear that Bernie Madoff, I mean Uncle Sam is writing redemption checks that can never be cashed. The point is, we are already past the tipping point. So timing isn't really a question anymore. The credibility waterfall has already happened. But somehow we still have early marks continuing to stockpile rubber checks as if they are worth something. Does this mean credibility still exists? I think not."
Does credibility exist in the minds of giants? I see people like Buffet desperate to keep credibility inflating. Same with many of the CBs. How can we know their minds under the surface of the media?
Beyond the margin, the dollar reserve system has little to no credibility with nearly everyone here, but we are a very small demographic of the shrimps. Perhaps the contingency of giants who feel the same way is quite small as well. Many of them came about their fortunes in very different ways and they certainly do not all think alike. If it is the old world wealth that we follow, who exactly is that? Is Carlos Slim actually the richest man in the world or is some sort of Rothschild conspiracy in between the lines of Another?
Imo, it's difficult to say if we are past the tipping point of credibility inflation with those that count. I'll check back tonight if anyone has thoughts on this subject.
In a spell of slow comments, I sometimes like to step back in time* a little — this time just back to the 13th of the month — to rake over some "old news".
* Pipe, saw this and thought of you buddy
Michael Hudson on "Neo-Feudalism" and the Faux Debt Ceiling Crisis.
The devil is always in the details. And Wall Street lobbyists always have such details tucked away in their briefcases to put in the hands of their favored congressmen and dedicated senators. And in this case they have the President, who has taken their advice as to whom to appoint as his cabinet to act as factotums to capture the government on their behalf and create “socialism for the rich.”
There is no such thing, of course. When governments are run by the rich, it is called oligarchy. Plato’s dialogues made clear that rather than viewing societies as democracies or oligarchies, it was best to view them in motion. Democracies tended to polarize economically (mainly between creditors and debtors) into oligarchies. These in turn tended to make themselves into hereditary aristocracies. In time, leading families would fight among themselves, and one group (such as Kleisthenes in Athens in 507 BC) would “take the people into his party” and create a democracy. And so the eternal political triangle would go on.
This is what is happening today. Instead of enjoying what the Progressive Era anticipated – an evolution into socialism, with government providing basic infrastructure and other needs on a subsidized basis – we are seeing a lapse back into neo-feudalism. The difference, of course, is that this time around society is not controlled by military grabbers of the land. Finance today achieves what military force did in times past. Instead of being tied to the land as under feudalism, families today may live wherever they want – as long as they take on a lifetime of debt to pay the mortgage on whatever home they buy.
And instead of society paying land rent and tribute to conquerors, we pay the bankers. Just as access to the land was a precondition for families to feed themselves under feudalism, one needs access to credit, to water, medical care, pensions or Social Security and other basic needs today – and must pay interest, fees and monopoly rent to the neo-feudal oligarchy that is now making its deft move from the United States to Ireland and Greece.
The U.S. Government has spent $13 trillion in financial bailouts since Lehman Bros. failed in September 2008. But, Obama warns that thirty years from now, the Social Security fund may run a $1 trillion deficit. It is to ward it off that he urges dismantling the plans for such payments now.
It seems that the $13 trillion used up all the money the government really has. The banks and Wall Street firms have taken the money and run. There is not enough to pay for Social Security, Medicare or other social spending that the Blue Dog Democrats and Republicans now plan to cut.
Not right away. The plan will be to “paper over” the current crisis by delegating the plans to a “Deficit Reduction Commission #2,” appointed from Congressional members.
Here is a link to a good Stratfor article on the EFSF and Germany's rise to power in the new Europe. Implications for a stronger Euro going forward since Germany has now undewritten the financial affairs of the weaker European states on condition of German management.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110725-germanys-choice-part-2?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20110726&utm_term=gweekly&utm_content=readmore&elq=85cdc9a63334416692629942167fe10a
Sorry, no direct link. you will have to cut and paste.
Bailouts, Austerity and Rage: Calm Like A Bomb
Part I - The Greek & The Irish
"Stroll through the shanties, and the cities remain.
Same bodies buried hungry, but with different last names.
These vultures rob everything, leave nothing but chains.
Pick a point on the globe; yes the picture's the same.
There's a bank, a church, a myth and a hearse;
a mall and a loan, a child dead at birth.
There's a widow pig parrot, a rebel to tame,
a whitehooded judge and a syringe and a vein.
And the riot be the rhyme of the unheard..."
-Rage Against the Machine: Calm Like a Bomb
"Rage is deeply-rooted fear and frustration metastasized in the body of a global and institutionalized society; the natural result of economic disenfranchisement. It is one thing to advocate in the name of rage, another to predict that episodes of collective rage will occur and yet another to note that they are already occurring and accept them as a fundamental aspect of our lives. The former should be avoided as much as possible, while the latter two are required of the responsible analyst, in my humble opinion. "RATM" may not be a shining beacon of objective analysis in our world, but, at the same time, they are right.
People across the world are once again recording their "rhymes" as history unfolds. The debt-drugs were injected for years on end, so now the only question is how far down the revolutionary river our rage-filled, junkie mentality will carry us? Southern Europe (and Ireland), of course, are back in the cross-hairs right now, to the extent that poorer parts of the world ever escape them. Revolutions were all but manufactured by Western colonial/imperial powers in Latin America, Asia, Africa and the Middle East throughout the 20th century (see The Shock Doctrine and Confessions of an Economic Hitman), but now the chickens are coming home to roost.
The last time Greece had a true "revolution" (let's call it "a widespread uprising of the people which displaces or severely threatens the existing political order") was in the 1820s, Spain was in the 1860s, Italy in 1848, Ireland in 1916 and Portugal the most recent in 1974 (no shots were fired in this military coup). [1], [2]. In the case of France, Germany and the UK, the populations have generally suffered their own governments for much longer stretches with fewer internal uprisings. Now, in the span of just over a year, we have witnessed mass protests and/or riots in all of these countries, on multiple different occasions.
The trigger for this rage has largely been either the establishment and/or proposal of "austerity measures", as both conditions of EU "bailouts" or independent fiscal policy, or the subsidization of debtor nations by those belonging to Europe's "core". This situation in the EMU has created an extremely tense dynamic both within and between the respective populations of member states. So if we want to know the future of social unrest in Europe, perhaps we should look to the future of bailouts and austerity. To date, the two countries in the developed world that are facing the most severe austerity measures are, without a doubt, Greece and Ireland."
...the rest is at link above for those interested.
RLP,
The biggest giant is oil and they have never wavered from their choice. Others undoubtedly came to their wealth in other ways, but don't they all have one thing in common? They are all producers. Producers want a way to store their wealth. If the dollar was managed in a way that allowed it, I am sure some of them would be happy to store wealth there. But if I was a giant, I wouldn't take the chance. No doubt some rich people will be burned, dot-com social media billionaire types who made it in fiat and maybe lose it the same way? But are they really giants, or just rich people?
On another note, I don't direct replies just to the person I name, like RLP or Victor. I do it for anyoone reading, and to further my own thought.
Some thoughts on the fair.
I am imagining that there is a spectrum of people at the fair with different needs.
At one end of the spectrum there are producers who mainly bring goods to sell. He probably goes to the fair board and tells them he has this many chickens. They probably ask him "what is your price, how much will you charge for your chickens?" Then they will probably give him the option of being issued up to 90% of their value in script.
In many cases he probably would not take all the script he could. Being a producer, he would take only the necessary amount of script to buy a few needed supplies, preferring to settle up at the end of the fair and take gold home.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are probably some who come primarily to make large purchases. They will have brought a large bag of gold, which will be turned in to the fair in return for script. If he spends it all on purchases, he leaves with them, and the fair keeps the gold, to settle up with the other script owners.
This works great if there is a balance between the value of the produce brought and sold, and the value of the gold brought by people who came to buy. But what happens if these do not balance?
To take an extreme case, lets say that one year everyone who came to the fair brought produce to sell, and no one came with gold to deposit. Lets further assume that the producers brought 100,000 worth of produce, and asked for 50,000 worth of script for purchases.
Since there would be only 50,000 worth of script in circulation, that means at the end of the fair, there would be 50,000 worth of unsold inventory that they would return home with.
However, when they went to turn their collective 50,000 worth of script in to convert to gold to take home, where would the gold come from? It is not going to come from the fair, they are only there to facilitate it.
I do see that on an individual level things could balance out. Someone with 100 worth of chickens could wind up with 50 worth of unsold chickens and 50 worth of supplies he had purchased.
But someone somewhere would wind up with a bunch of script that the fair could in some cases not have the gold to redeem.
I am sure there is an answer to that, as these fairs did exist, it is just that I am not smart enough to see it.
Well here is an interesting proposal from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard as a work around to the US debt crisis.
Mark platinum coins to a face value of $1 billion each. Seignorage on steroids! That would make the Freegold revaluation look tiny.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100011099/the-kabuki-theatre-of-americas-debt-ceiling/
The probability of this actually happening is less likely than a snowball's chance of survival in Beelzebub's backyard. But hypothetically, could there be any real advantage to the US if they re-valued platinum instead of gold? Some of the other people here, with a much better economic understanding than me, might see some possibilities. Thoughts please?
Would that be platinum pricing the currency, or currency oricing platinum Totara ?
there can be only one !
Oldinvestor
Why couldn't the fair operators act as a buyer of last resort? For example if you arrived to my fair with 10 chickens that you were hoping to sell for two gold coins I could issue you scrip for the equivalent of one gold coin (50% of your intended revenue). At the end of the fair you had to either return the amount of scrip that I had issued to you or 10 chickens or 1 gold coin. The choice is yours and I would have to be happy with whatever outcome you chose to present to me.
Oldinvestor
I wondered about the fair scenario myself for a while.
I believe it worked like this;
Fairgoers arrive at the fair gate and "register". If they need scrip they request it, collateralized by their goods, but only based on a rough valuation. (True value is determined at the point of sale).
Trade commences. Some transactions are barter, some are sales for gold/silver, and some are sales for scrip (paper gold/silver).
Much drinking, fighting, falling over etc...
The fair winds up. As each fairgoer leaves, they are de-registered. If they owe scrip, they either repay in scrip or gold/silver. If they have excess scrip, they cash in for gold/silver.
If they owe scrip and have neither scrip or gold/silver, they forfeit goods at outrageously bad rate. If they have no goods they are put in the stocks, and have to do ALL the washing up.
If you work this through you see that it does work. The scrip is only liquifying the market, not underwriting it. You don't need equal value of scrip to goods. The mistake you make in your example is assuming scrip is only used once. Don’t forget, scrip moves through assets , not into them.
If everyone turns up with stuff to sell and no one wants to buy, fine. No scrip is issued, no trades are made and it's a rubbish fair.
The key is controlling entry and exit, to ensure taxes are paid and to stop fairgoers running off with goods purchased with borrowed scrip. Hence city walls and gates, as much to keep value in as to keep invaders out.
I guess these days the walls are in our minds. Which are stronger, mental walls or stone walls?
FOFOA makes the point often that freegold will come first, USD hyperinflation may come and if it does, it comes second.
I've been studying the FOFOA archives and I understand how Europe has the nuclear option to super inflate gold (Greece is the Word) if the USD doesn't collapse itself first.
What I don't get is the link between the death of paper gold and the USD (if Europe deploys the nuclear option)
Why does the demise of paper gold kill the USD?
Is it because oil will immediately cease being traded for USD once phyiscal gold does its moon shot?
Which doesn't cause hyperinflation in of itself but then causes world Central Banks to divest their USD reserves?
Thats the bit I don't quite get. The demise of paper gold meaning the death of the USD.
Any help? :)
I frequently use Wikipedia to help with financial terms that I'm struggling to understand. The other day, while asking "am I waiting for the fulfillment of the prophecies of Another" or am I reading the comments of an insightful insider trying to glean hints of why the world is so wobbly on its financial axis? I went to Wikipedia. I wondered what others thought of freegold and whether the concept had any respect. I found ...nothing...
Does anyone know why there is no post there. Is it banned? Simply not recognized, known by another name, so feared by the PTB that they forbid even the utterance of the word???
Has there been discussion of adding a page to Wikipedia? I know the 'masters' theory that 'wooliness' makes the thinking better (or that deeper thought is required and a superficial list of traits simply would not explain freegold.) I would do it but a novice like me would be dangerous in undertaking such a task.
Marc Faber interview over at King World News (from Eric King's blog):
The wealth destruction will be interesting because...the people that suffer the most before the reset happens are actually the cash holders.
"Reset" as in revalue gold to balance the currency and debt build up.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/7/25_Marc_Faber_-_The_Great_%28Monetary%29_Reset_Will_Destroy_Cash.html
Micheal
Wikipedia doesn't accept freegold(yet), they will say it is an idea of just one blogger and demand more source.
we are just not there yet, only when mass starts moving, slow at first, avalanche not long after.
freegold is NEW insight,
you will NEVER find that in an encyclopedia ...
If the US treasury mints a platinum coin with a $1 billion face value, then that isn't suddenly going to make all of platinum eagles already minted legal tender for more than the $100 face value which they already have at present. I don't see existing holders of 1-oz platinum bullion becoming billionaires overnight.
But is there something about minting platinum that gives the US treasury more freedom to operate than they would otherwise have with gold or silver?
As I understand it, the treasury is prevented from printing paper money directly (that job is for the Fed). Although they could still print gold or silver certificates which have a defined value of metal that must be held on deposit by the treasury ($1 defined as equal to ~1-oz silver or 1/35th-oz gold I think).
Seeing as how platinum wasn't known about when the US constitution and other early coinage laws were written, could it be possible that this provides the treasury with some wriggle room? Instead of giving the Fed $1 billion in treasury debt in exchange for $1 billion Fed Reserve notes (which would add to the US debt) couldn't they give the Fed a $1 billion platinum coin in exchange for $1 billion Fed Reserve notes (or anybody else fool enough to pay that much) without adding to the debt?
I am no expert on US money laws, or their constitution, but it seems that Ambrose's comment wasn't entirely an off-the-cuff remark. If somebody more knowledgeable has an explanation, then it would be interesting to hear.
Totara
again
it is Mr Market who sets the price of platimun, not Uncle Sam ...
seems I have to make at least one typing error in every post
editting is luxury ;-)
Totara,
For whatever reason the media keeps flogging this die when really the Treasury could much more plausibly do this with it's gold stock and "repo" it the Fed at at stated $10,000/ounce rate. That would give them $3 trillion or so.
FOFOA wrote a whole post on this concept.
It would also signal Freegold and, perhaps, spark panic in the dollar.
I don't know why either party doesn't at least propose it, other than not having any benefit if it does. But maybe I am being cynical.
Keeps flogging this " idea" ......the platinum coin
True, the market still sets the price of commodity platinum a well as bullion platinum coins.
But could an unusual type of coin be minted with a high face value that was only exchanged between the treasury and the Fed to allow the treasury to work around the debt ceiling?
Would that be doable under US laws by the treasury for platinum in a way that the treasury is unable to do for high face value paper? (Or for gold or silver?)
Alternatively, the Fed could just be asked to forgive a couple of trillion of debt for nothing in return (except to keep their game running). But that would be tantamount to the US admitting bankruptcy and default.
I'm not saying that anybody else gets to sell platinum at the high price. Just asking whether it could be viable under US laws as a legal workaround?
Captain Winters,
What I don't get is the link between the death of paper gold and the USD (if Europe deploys the nuclear option). Why does the demise of paper gold kill the USD?
Perhaps it might be helpful to look at this from a relationship perspective. Let’s look at your question from the perspective of two different relationships. Firstly the relationship between physical gold and paper gold then let’s compare the relationship between the US$ and gold versus the Euro and gold relationship.
At present physical gold and paper gold trade at a 1:1 exchange value. You can take delivery or cash out a paper gold contract and use that cash to buy physical gold. The paper or spot price of gold is used as the reference point for pricing physical gold. There is huge leverage in the paper gold markets. This works because only a small percentage of the players want physical settlement.
In a severe, lengthy shortage of physical gold this paper and physical gold relationship should break down rapidly. The price of paper gold and physical gold would diverge because no physical settlement of the paper contracts would be available. Physical gold would price (in weight) paper gold not the other way around. And that “weight” price would be zero for the paper gold. Any outstanding paper gold contracts would be cash settled. Gold would then trade as a physical-only market not as a commingled physical and paper market.
Now let’s consider the difference between the relationship of the US$ and the Euro to gold. I attempted to describe the difference in this comment.
If you put these perspectives together I think it presents these conclusions and causation:
1. Physical gold “kills” paper gold.
2. Gold now floats in value in a physical only market which is not obfuscated by paper gold.
3. Revaluation of physical gold “kills” the US dollar in terms of the value of the dollar in gold.
4. Revaluation of the Euro in gold makes the ECB Eurosystem CBs main reserve asset vastly more valuable and doesn’t diminish the Euro’s role as a medium of exchange.
5. Euro becomes stronger than the dollar unless and until the US Treasury revalues their gold reserves as well. Failure to do so could result in the rejection of the US$ as a medium for international trade.
6. US Treasury revaluation of gold reserves “kills” the dollar as a store of value and it becomes nothing more than a medium of exchange (but a drastically devalued one due to the 40 year “mountain” of dollar liabilities that a revaluation would be required to discount.
7. $IMFS - dead.
8. Fiat currency as a store of value - dead.
9. Gold becomes recognized as the ultimate store of value in the international monetary system (again).
10. The value of fiat currencies is determined by the amount of physical gold they can buy in a free market where the price floats – Freegold-RPG.
Totara said...
True, the market still sets the price of commodity platinum a well as bullion platinum coins.
But could an unusual type of coin be minted with a high face value that was only exchanged between the treasury and the Fed to allow the treasury to work around the debt ceiling?
Why would it have to be platinum?
You might just as well of said ....
"couldnt an unusual type of cheese be minted/formed into a coin with a high face value that was only exchanged between the treasury and the fed to allow..........."
"Hey Fed, is it my turn with the cheese yet?"!
Think about it fella.
Regards
Ozzy
thank you Costata. I've read your replies here but will send that entire Euro Gold comment thread to instapaper for further study at a better hour (AEST :)
I knew the question would have been answered already but it is a tricky one to google search for.
thanks again
Captain Winters,
I have also been reading through the archives, as I just started lurking here not too long ago. After watching FOFOA's thoughts really start developing from Ender's posts, I've decided to start my deeper learning as well.
With that said, I believe the death of the USD in relation to paper gold is helped from Ender talking about the Strong Dollar Policy. (I'm terrible at html, so if this doesn't go directly to the comment, cntrl+f "ender the strong dollar policy")
If gold goes up in value in all currencies (from the unwinding of the leveraged asset), is the dollar still going to be able to extract it's inflation tax on the weak? And will they be weak any longer when Freegold allows for settlement of claims on production? Back to the fair, the producers are going to settle their excess "scrip" in FG, not dollars. When this happens, all of the dollars will come flooding back home to roost.
Am I wrong on this?
Any thoughts on COMEX options? 79,500 Gold Options Exercised Yesterday -- 50,000 at 1550 and below.
So those are now futures contracts; of course those won't all stand for delivery.
Harvey Organ says there were no deposits or withdrawals at COMEX yesterday. No gold notices for withdrawals since June 13?
Thanks Ozzy. I expect that there will be some sort of creative accounting used to get around the debt ceiling. Maybe it won't be done with cheese, but, whatever fix is put in place, it is still likely to have a bad smell.
@ Jeff
I dunno, the physical buyers are in control, but even if they are not..I dont care.
I bought 2 10oz gold bars in Canadian dollars today. It was around $31,000 CAD in my hands. Im almost part of the All Inn.
Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto was out of 10 oz bars today and BNS Edmonton was out of 5 oz bars today.I wanted 5's but I had to take 10's. (Edmonton is home)
The CAD was at a 3 year high today, its COMEX options exp today. Summer is usually a slow time for gold and John Embry, James Turk and FOFOA said said the summer will be strong.
If it falls below $1200, it will piss me off, anything over that is fine by me.
faber audio interview:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/7/26_Dr._Marc_Faber.html
Oldinvestor,
Please tell us what happens with that fair.
Does the value of script go to zero and all hell breaks loose at the fairground?
I know you know the outcome.
Charles Hugh Smith
Part 1/2
CHS is so close to “getting it here” in this post.
”While the European Central Bank (ECB) and the vassals' favorite form of oppression, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), print or borrow more euros into existence to fund the illusion of solvency, the cold reality is that the only way to service these trillions in impaired debt is to skim the surplus from the labor of the debt-serfs.
Since the political vassals control the means of taxation, then it is their job to squeeze hundreds of billions of euros out of the labor of their nation's debt-serfs. There is a fatal weakness in the Grand Scheme of European Neo-Feudalism, and the lackeys in the EU are desperately trying to fix it under the banner of "integration." The fatal flaw is that the political union of the EU vassal states did not include fiscal union in which the EU could impose and control taxation within all member states.
This flaw means that the Banker Lords lack the necessary means to impose serfdom directly through the "laws" of the EU itself; instead, they must coerce the vassal political class within each member state to impose debt-serfdom on its citizenry.”
I’m going to pose a question or two for CHS and add in a few minor corrections in bold-italicized type and then restate the passages from Charles’ post as a conclusion.
”While the European Central Bank (ECB) and the vassals' favorite form of oppression, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), print or borrow more euros into existence to fund the illusion of solvency, the cold reality is that the only way to service these trillions in impaired debt is to skim the surplus from the labor of the debt-serfs.”
CHS why do you assume that the ECB (and Eurosystem Central Banks) will “print” the Euro to address this “insolvency”? Also the EFSF is a tool of governments and politicians not the CBs. Only sovereign governments can finance and fund such a fund for the precise reasons you outline in the first sentence of your next paragraph. The “political vassals” not the ECB “control the means of taxation”.
Continued/
/Continued
Part 2/2
”Since the political vassals control the means of taxation, then it is their job to squeeze hundreds of billions of euros out of the labor of their nation's debt-serfs. There is a fatal weakness in the Grand Scheme of European Neo-Feudalism, and the lackeys in the EU are desperately trying to fix it under the banner of "integration." The fatal flaw is that the political union of the EU vassal states did not include fiscal union in which the EU could impose and control taxation within all member states.”
CHS have you considered the possibility that this was not a “flaw” but an intentional part of the design of the Euro and the structure of the ECB Eurosystem Central Banks?
”This flaw means that the Banker Lords lack the necessary means to impose serfdom directly through the "laws" of the EU itself; instead, they must coerce the vassal political class within each member state to impose debt-serfdom on its citizenry.”
Exactly Charles! Because the Euro is outside the political vassals’ control. The link between the Euro and the nation state has been severed. So let’s put a fresh perspective on those observations of CHS by making a few changes.
>> While the political vassals' favorite form of oppression, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), borrows more euros into existence to fund the illusion of solvency, the cold reality is that the only way to service these trillions in impaired debt is to skim the surplus from the labor of the debt-serfs.
>> Since the political vassals control the means of taxation, then it is their job to squeeze hundreds of billions of euros out of the labor of their nation's debt-serfs. There is a fatal weakness in the Grand Scheme of European Neo-Feudalism, and the lackeys in the EU are desperately trying to fix it under the banner of "integration." The fatal flaw is that the political union of the EU vassal states did not include fiscal union in which the EU could impose and control taxation within all member states. And the Bundesbank (and German citizens) will never agree to fiscal union on terms that would be acceptable to all of the other EU nation states.
>> This flaw means that the Banker Lords lack the necessary means to impose serfdom directly through the "laws" of the EU itself; instead, they must coerce the vassal political class within each member state to impose debt-serfdom on its citizenry. And the ECB Eurosystem CBs will not give them the alternative of trashing the Euro to inflate their way out. The “vassal political class” must confront their own citizens.”
"Respect our austeritay!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwT-ns1ARBM
Here's another person who seems a tad confused about the means by which gold will be revalued. I thought Mr. Thomson had a better understanding than this.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_072611.html
This sounds a lot like FreeGold:
http://mises.org/daily/5492/Putting-the-Country-Back-on-Gold
Costata!! Please read his posts above twice!
Cliff's notes: So the ECB has been buying bonds amidst the debt issues of member states to manage the Euro currency and euro interest rates (aka monetary policy). But, the ECB has also had concern these secondary market purchases were were to some degree also helping "fund" member states states.
As we know, the euro is severed from the member states, which means it is *not* there to fund governments. So the ECB shut the program down for the last 4+ moths, even amidst the crisis, because of this issue:
ECB bond buying programme remains in hibernation
FRANKFURT, July 25 | Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:49am EDT
"(Reuters) - The European Central Bank kept its government bond-buy programme in hibernation for a 17th week running last week, holding fire while euro zone leaders worked out a package aimed at resolving the bloc's debt crisis.
Comments from policymakers have made it clear the programme has effectively been shut down, despite the debt crisis showing signs of infecting Italy and Spain. The package euro zone leaders agreed last week will keep the ECB out of bond markets."
So amidst the crisis, the ECB stops its "emergency" stabilization policies (aka buying bonds) to hold the euro zone leaders' "feet to the proverbial fire" "while euro zone leaders worked out a package aimed at resolving the bloc's debt crisis".
This part is key:
"Government leaders agreed last Thursday on a second rescue package for Greece in a deal which includes the right for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to buy bonds on the secondary market at the ECB's recommendation."
So the EFSF (funded by member states, as Costata references above), not the ECB, is going to step into this role of secondary market operations.
**********************************
Moar on the shift of these secondary market bond buying efforts to the EFSF - the EFSF's role (its a "Stability Facility") is as a funding source for government's unable to borrow: EFSF to get new powers before year-end, key to Greek bailout
"BRUSSELS, July 27 (Reuters) - The euro zone expects its bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), to have new powers to buy the bonds of distressed countries on the secondary market before the end of the year, officials said.
The new powers, which include the possibility of lending to governments for bank recapitalisation and precautionary credit lines before they are shut out of markets, were agreed by euro zone leaders at a summit last Thursday."
Cheers, J.R.
Paper gold stuck like glue at 1615. Thank you comex.
So if the dollar can't expand we find its achilles heel?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8ZeZ_VO8AU&feature=related
I couldn't resist running with the FOFOA tshirt concept.
http://www.zazzle.com/golden_shrimps_tshirt-235614022721330719
Oy vey gold vault! The stupidity out there is so thick you can't cut it with a knife. You need a chainsaw.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/stop-presses-fed-can-fund-treasury-over-half-trillion-emergency-capital
The last time I checked, the Banker Lords could put Europe's junk bonds to the ECB as AAA-rated collateral. That's fiat money (credit) printing, and that's the Fed. Sometimes a brilliant design isn't actually a brilliant design, it's just a bunch of people shining shit and calling it gold. Or, a bunch of people shining feudalism and calling it financial capitalism.
Regarding the US debt ceiling negotiations, here’s a plan that could work.
The President announces that the Strategic Oil Reserve is for sale, the price being $100 dollars a barrel, or 1000 barrels for an ounce of gold.
The price of gold will then immediately be arbitraged up to $100,000 an ounce.
The Treasury then sells 140 million ounces of gold, just half the US gold reserves, to pay off the national debt.
No national debt, now need for debt ceiling, problem solved.
Oh, wait, that would blow up the COMEX, the LBMA, the US dollar and the global US hegemony.
Back to the drawing board...
FOFOA,
A small request. Please make a back-up copy of that last "brilliant" comment by SIR. I don't want him to be able to delete it and pretend he did not post it.
It contains the kernel, the source of the confusion sown by the trolls. The time approaches for a compilation of comments to explain why these fools are dead wrong.
Thanking you in anticipation.
The original architecture of the euro was a very noble exercise, but in my view at this point they all better learn to sing kumbaya under one flag, or it's game over. Place your bets.
As for the dollar, it would seem that since there are pretty easy ways to end the standoff through a gold revaluation, but no one is even mentioning it (including Ron Paul to my knowledge), that no one in the US at least has the slightest intention of advocating "reference price gold". In fact, all the mainstream media flow has been heavily ratcheted up
to say gold is in a bubble, with even Dick Bove commenting on how gold market isn't "big enough" to act as reserve. Holy cow what a total failure of understanding, or propaganda. Who knows.
FOFOA, I don't know if you save up titles for future posts, but after gold revalues you ought to pen a post titled "How ya like me now?"
Costata, just today I was reading how a Spanish bank is placing it's contracts with Ronaldo and kaka as " collateral" with the ECB.
That might not square with your definition of monetization, but make no mistake, it is.
The ECB is probably funding most of the southern banks at this point who have "collaterlized" their borrowings with, apparently, whatever they have.
CRA,
Before you go off on your "choose your own adventure" game, where you somehow always choose an adventure in some dark room with your (dual-screen?) computer and a list of other people's comments, and then proceed to write a few comments that clearly show how little you understand their arguments in the first place, before childishly exclaiming, "See, I have found the fundamental kernel underlying all non-Freegold arguments, and they are all wrong!!" ... I think you should take a Zanax, or smoke a bowl, or something else... and open your eyes.
The monetary, financial and political structures of the EU are dysfunctional beyond repair, at least from their peoples' point of view. The latest plan was clearly an attempt to do exactly what you said would not be done - make the ECB more dependent on and responsive to the fiscal situations of its member states. At some point, you gotta just give up on the brilliant Eurogold system, and accept reality for what it is. Instead of making excuses for its increasingly desperate and pathetic attempts to keep the Euro-ponzi going, you should focus on how Freegold can emerge without the Eurosystem as its foundation, which I'm sure it could.
Texan,
Ron Paul is not yet coming out asking for a gold revaluation, but he is definitely warning of an impending default, and emphatically stating that he believes the USG, like all other countries facing a debt crisis, will inflate the dollar into oblivion.
Fofoa,
I think he is taking your letter to heart...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/07/28/ron_paul_default_is_coming.html
"And instead of society paying land rent and tribute to conquerors, we pay the bankers. Just as access to the land was a precondition for families to feed themselves under feudalism, one needs access to credit, to water, medical care, pensions or Social Security and other basic needs today – and must pay interest, fees and monopoly rent to the neo-feudal oligarchy that is now making its deft move from the United States to Ireland and Greece."
It was the easy money policies of socialist/Marxist politicians, their idiot Keynesian counterparts, and a fiat currency that enriched the bankers. Freegold will kill the financial oligarchy. Yes, the will outrun many the common man as they are bailed out of their sinking ships, but at least the fiat welfare state will end, and people will again be rewarded by their productivity (a weird concept for Marxists to get their arms around--moving their arms will seem too much like work.)
@ Ash
Doesn't seem like you are here to learn anything or share ideas. You are just here for a small chance to claim fame if the Euro doesn't become a part of freegold.
Wendy, Paul I is right, when you work it through it balances. .
A consumer comes to the fair with 100 units of gold and deposits it for script.
5 chicken farmers each bring 100 units of chickens, and draw 50 units of script.
Merchant brings 500 units of chickenfeed.
During the fair, each of the chicken farmers purchase 50 units of chickenfeed, leaving the chickenfeed merchant with 250 units of script. Consumer purchases 100 units of chickens.
Then the chickenfeed merchant purchases an aditional 250 units of chickens with the script he received from them. In addition he barters chickenfeed for chickens and acquires the remaining 150 chickens.
At settlement, it nets out to;
Consumer takes home 100 chickens
Merchant takes home 400 chickens and 100 unsold units of chickenfeed.
Chicken farmers take home 400 units of chicken feed and have 350 units of script to redeem. They redeposit 250 of it to cover their original draw, and take the remaining 100 units in gold.
Result. everything balances.
If Consumer did not show up with gold, they could still trade, but the chicken farmers would have sold 100 less chickens, and thus have 100 less script, so no gold required.
ECB to use Spanish soccer player Ronaldo collateral..."
ZH: We were pretty much speechless when we read this - it sure puts guarantees by Noyer, Trichet and all the other bureaumonkeys that the ECB does not accept just any collateral in perspective.
From Presseurop.eu: "The most expensive footballer in history may now be used to guarantee the solvency of a Spanish bank. “Ronaldo in the bailout fund,” headlines Süddeutsche Zeitung. The daily reports that the Bankia group of savings banks, which financed Real Madrid’s acquisition of the Portuguese player, is now seeking to borrow funds from the European Central Bank. In response to the ECB’s demand for guarantees, Bankio are putting up… Ronaldo and the Brazilian Kaka, who also plays for the Madrid football club.
M,
"Doesn't seem like you are here to learn anything or share ideas. You are just here for a small chance to claim fame if the Euro doesn't become a part of freegold."
A small chance to claim fame? I'm not the first or only person criticizing the EU/EMU structure and predicting its downfall, either here or elsewhere. On top of that, if the dollar became worthless soon and Freegold actually happened, I think that would more than offset any credit I get from saying the Euro wasn't going to be a part of it. So... you're completely wrong about my intentions.
Trollidays are officially over then - welcome back Ash
Jeff: Any thoughts on COMEX options? 79,500 Gold Options Exercised Yesterday -- 50,000 at 1550 and below.
So those are now futures contracts; of course those won't all stand for delivery.
Harvey Organ says there were no deposits or withdrawals at COMEX yesterday. No gold notices for withdrawals since June 13?
So... Jeff, are you implying that someone put a floor under COMEX gold at $1550, exercised the options (cash settlement) at a higher price they knew would be forthcoming, and will now roll the proceeds into futures at a specified price and finally take delivery at maturity. Interesting. June 13th has an Armstrongesque ring to it.
Jeff: Paper gold stuck like glue at 1615. Thank you comex.
So if the dollar can't expand we find its achilles heel?
$1615 the new $1550?
Crack,
I never left, buddy. I was enjoying the discussion here on Europe, and especially VTC's insightful arguments, which others tried to refute quite unsuccessfully. See, I can give someone credit for a solid argument even when I don't agree with their broader views.
@JOEL
" (a weird concept for Marxists to get their arms around--moving their arms will seem too much like work.) "
LOL, classic
Regards
Ozzy
@Enough
want to thank you again for the info (you gave me on 7/21/11) on the APMEX 1/2 oz First Spouse coins. They arrived and I am happy to report that APMEX is still in business and communicating better. I had stopped using them because they simply would not respond to voice calls or email...that was 3 mos ago and I had not used them since. Coins were great...slabbed...rated MS70 and only $15 over spot (equivalent of $60/ounce). I do not usually care to spend extra for numismatic value but at these prices it was worth it. The cost over spot is usually quite a bit higher for 1/2 coins and these are nice to boot...
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