From FOFCON2013 in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada, welcome to the FOFCON Open Forum.
Above, you can see that Poopyjim, being the good stooge that he is, checked in on the World's Largest Ball of Twine during his roadtrip to FOFCON. It is, indeed, still there just waiting to be thrown.
It was a small and intimate gathering on purpose this time, so I'm sorry to anyone who feels left out. Maybe we can have a bigger meeting next time!
I'm sitting here with the group right now, so let's see if they have anything they want to say...
Aquilus says: RJ, you don't have a hair on your dixie ass if you don't come next time.
FoNoah says: I can't think under pressure.
Lisa says: This feels like Christmas.
Lisa's hubby says: Are we gonna do this next year?
Matrix Sentry says: Can I have another piece of cake.
Michael dV says: Gotta run, gettin up early to take the group shooting.
Poopyjim says: We freegolders are rollin' deep. We're takin' over this town.
Wendy says: Is there any more wine?
Woland says: If the transition happens this year this will be done in Monte Carlo next time.
Mrs. FOFOA says: What a lovely weekend.
_____________________
Here are a few pictures from the extracurricular activities at FOFCON.
From the Hoover Dam, here's FoNoah, Poopyjim, Wendy and FOFOA (picture taken by Aquilus):
Another picture of the same group:
Aquilus showing his pictures to Wendy and FoNoah with Jim hanging back:
FoNoah and Aquilus:
Wendy gets a close look at Mike's big gun:
Wendy takes Mike's full auto sound suppressed MP5 for a test drive:
Poopyjim mows down the dreaded Happy Face:
222 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 222 of 222Costata,
I have been reviewing some of your work on silver, a lot of it produced in responses to me, to other bimetallic or even silver-focused individuals at Screwtape.
In all you have mentioned three pieces of work you were thinking of doing:
- a response to my "cultural salience" post
- a piece of work on the GSR
- a piece on silver more generally (I think?) possibly intended for Screwtape.
I am not sure if these are three separate pieces of work or parts of a whole.
I have also reviewed some of the ZH responses to FOFOA from late 2010 and other Screwtape contributions from late last year on these points. I noticed that those contributors have found other (better) words to make a few of the same points I have been trying to make. From my (distorted?) perspective they still appear to be unanswered as stated. Hence my eagerness to find your work.
Can you let me know if any of it has been posted anywhere (else)? - or perhaps put it up somewhere, even if only in draft form? I hope you don't mind me asking. Thanks.
Wil,
I don't understand why Bunde asked for a personal inspection of the Fed gold, only to have the inspection denied
AFAIK, every other year, some Bundesbank people go to NY for this purpose. So I guess the claim that an inspection had been denied is false and is merely the usual hard money propaganda.
Where did you get this from? From that ZeroHedge article?
Victor
Haha
Thanks vic.
When you look at the 'request' for German gold from the propaganda side it seems to say, "Hey World, just a thought but you might want to think about gold" because the idea of the actual physical being the motivation doesn't fit. With this in mind, and the fact that no one wants to be blamed for the 'transition' isn't it risky for Germany to have done this? Obviously there are very intelligent people making calculations on the worldwide economic chess board so I guess this move was no where near checkmate so why not do it. Yesterday after watching a nauseating few minutes of CNN I wondered how the story is going to be told to the American Public the morning we all wake up and some plastic human behind the screen begins to explain how 'someone bad' or 'something bad' crushed the worldwide economy.
I have been doing some thinking (not a guarantee of a useful result) about foreshadowing indicators and am currently focusing on scrap production. I have found a number of articles and reports stating that volume of scrap flowing from the "Cash For Gold" industry is trending lower.
One such article is this from Rapidtrends, which reports annual (2010) global mining production at ~2500 tones, and global annual scrap production at ~1650 tonnes. The article also reports global annual physical demand at ~4000 tonnes.
Further, the article includes a snippet from a Reuters piece about the "Cash For Gold" industry starting to see some waning supply. This got me looking for a good source of scrap gold supply statistics for monthly or weekly volume.
Does anyone know of such a source?
Since mine production seems to be pretty inelastic, a continuing diminishing of the scrap supply could put a lot of pressure on the current market, right?
That got me thinking further about what might happen if scrap supply were to drop by, oh I dunno, @50%, even as demand for physical was steady or increasing. How might that tension be masked in the market over an extended period of time? I had one (potentially misguided) thought.
If the time required for fulfillment of physical orders was extended slightly, maybe from two weeks to eighteen days (or whatever), the reduced supply could be apparently mitigated.
How could fulfillment timelines be easily tracked?
Cheers
BBY
Unless I am mistaken, changing delivery time from 14 to say 18 days would only net them 4 days worth of mining and scrap supply, where after they would be in the exact same position as before, and if they ever wanted to reduce it to two weeks again they would require a period of increased scrap and mining supply in excess of demand to reclaim those days.
The question about scrap I find interesting and how also been wondering about supply levels, so if you happen upon a good info source please do share it.
TF
byiamBYoung,
I suspect that any extension of delivery times to more than 2 standard deviations above the mean (whatever that is; but regular buyers will know) would result in a rapid increase in demand due to the perception of distressed supply, far outweighing any short-term benefit.
This is not only the case for gold.
@MF
Exactly. The pushing out of the delivery time seems like, as you note, something that would be hard to dial back once it's extended.
I have no idea if there's any there there, but wouldn't it be interesting if a gradual stretching of the delivery timeline emerged?
The best scrap numbers I've found are fromThompson Reuters, but they are only annual numbers, it seems. THere surely is a better source out there.
Cheers
TOTP,
I agree, if there was a sudden dislocation and delivery schedules popped to a longer timeframe, but for a sleepy population that will wait up to 12 weeks for delivery of things like rebates or Shamwows, a day here or a day there could creep up unnoticed?
Again, I am essentially just thinking out loud. To me, it's like an approaching enemy army. They might or might not march to battle drums, but if you hear them, it's a sign.
Cheers
Olafur Ragnar Grimsson Iceland president 'Let banks go bankrupt'
I enjoy being reminded of an alternate reality
Another Canadian who gets it.
I mean, this guy is really summing up the paradigm shift that I've gradually been noting in, say, the last 20 posts?
Average people are beginning to see this. Where are we in the cycle of change? Every new wave seems to take us closer, but which wave will break the norm??
-Good to remember the Holocaust - and now the German left wants to discuss sexual harassment, at a time when several genocides are happening in Africa? Shame, shame Shame on you! Just to say that I listened to Avi Primor on SWR last night, Bravo Sir! Another PeaceNobel possible to Angela and Barack for 2 state solution...
-German politicians going to Carnival, hello duty?! Just to say that I'm listening carefully to Brüderle and Philipp et al., time to save the FDP! 10%, with the Union at 42%, that makes, you do the math, for the silent majority...
-been also carefully listening to certain Swiss politicians ;-)
-and the WAG ends silently ;-)
Thanks for listening and a good week,
KG
VTC, sorry I was on the older thread, but I think that request of the Bunde being "turned down" ir regards to inspection has propogated to so many hard money pulpits it's hard to say where it originated, though ZH does tend to stir up trouble first.
As I've said before, you simply do not know what to believe out there, there is so much intentional (and unintentional) misinformation.
But yes, if that's a false flag then all the other puzzle pieces fit accordingly. I didn't mean to deflate any particularly argument, only trying to iron out thaty one wrinkle, so MF, sorry if it seemed that way.
KnallGold,
I must confess I don't always manage to find the connecting thread in your comments, but weirdly enough they are always amongst my favorites anyway :)
Have a good week!
Wil,
With regard to the above topic of delivery schedules, I followed your GATA link, then surfed on to David Ceresne's precious metal house site. Here are the shipping terms promised:
"PMH will ship customer orders within 2-15 business days of receiving payment for the order in full and after the applicable holding period for your chosen payment method having elapsed."
Note the holding period can be as much as 30 days, for an outside ship date 45 days after the purchase!
Now that's what I call wiggle room!
Cheers
Regarding scrap supply: I don't have any hard statistics to offer, but I can give you anecdotal information. We have been primarily in the Cash for Gold business since 2008,in the best years buying 1.2 - 1.5 million per year in gold and silver scrap and coins. 2009 and 2010 were our best years. 2011 saw declining business and the need to expand the territory we covered. 2012 was pretty slow, basically tapering off to almost nothing. We bought in the "home party" format. Now, we still get calls from prior customers, referrals, estates and coin collections, but most everyone already sold anything they wanted to sell a year or two ago. The potential party hostess can't round up 8-12 friends who still have items to sell.
The brick and mortar shops are still doing business as their purchases don't depend on getting a group of people together at one time. Still, everyone we talk to who buys scrap says business is way down.
The refinery we work with also has slowing volume. For a while they said they were getting as much scrap, but it was lesser amounts coming from a wider number of people, so clearly the participants were all getting a smaller piece of the pie. Now the pie is mostly eaten!
We have speculated for a while that the huge influx of scrap was a major factor in supplying the "flow" of physical gold. It is definitely drying up, so it will be interesting to see if this impacts the Free Gold timeline.
Wil Martindale,
The homepage of that Canadian who gets it begins with the following drop-down menus:
Home, Silver bullion, Gold bullion, Other metals.
He even uses the forbidden three word combinations (both of them).
I have been under the impression that for at least the last four years, looking for and reporting on imminent signs of detachment between physical and paper prices of both metals, as evidenced by various inventories, Comex deliveries, LBMA backwardation, premiums etc. has been the stock in trade of the entire metals blogosphere. Other than a resurgence of certain of the old memes from 2011, is this really something new?
1 CHINA_GOLD_AIR-SEA_BATTLE
Bookending this post (or two) of quotes an extract somewhat central to ongoing containment measures in the East (another Marshall plan) and to CB's all over gathering in their gold.
"But – should China wish to de-stabilise the dollar by announcing big gold purchases into its reserves to replace a good proportion of its trillions of dollars, there is also little doubt that it could do so. It is an economic weapon which perhaps has more power than a nuclear one if it wished to bring America, and the West, to its collective economic knees through currency war."
http://www.thenation.com/article/man-ona
After it became apparent that North Korea was on the verge of mass starvation and collapse, Marshall turned his attention to China.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/will-china-make-the-yuan-a-gold-backed-currency/30978
..if one country – such as China – switches to a gold-backed currency, the dollar will be toast:
All it will take for the world to realize that U.S. dollars are nothing more than hot potatoes is for one country (Doug postulated that maybe China would be first) to introduce a gold-backed currency. If China introduced a gold-backed yuan, for example, who on earth would want anything to do with U.S. dollars?
Similarly, SafeHaven points out:
Suppose a large exporter, such as China, which undervalues its currency and runs a large trade surplus as a result, takes a huge radical step and goes all the way to a 100%-reserve gold currency. The ultimate hard currency. If this succeeds, China is the new England – the financial capital of the world, forever. Everyone else’s money? In a word: pesos. Hard currency is Chinese currency. China’s natural supremacy over the barbarian kingdoms of the West is restored....
***
[This] game theory article is great because it points out that China does not need to amass a gold stock similar to the US, it can simply go to a gold standard now and effect a simultaneous devaluation against the dollar (as game theory dictates that the US and all other CB’s would be forced to follow China’s lead, or risk losing all their capital as investors buy the only gold backed currency in the world).
And Wikileaks noted several reasons for China’s stocking up on gold. ZeroHedge summarizes:
As the following leaked cable explains, gold is, to China at least, nothing but the opportunity cost of destroying the dollar’s reserve status. Putting that into dollar terms is, therefore, impractical at best, and illogical at worst. We have a suspicion that the following cable from the US embassy in China is about to go not viral but very much global, and prompt all those mutual fund managers who are on the golden sidelines to dip a toe in the 24 karat pool. The only thing that matters from China’s perspective is that “suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency. China’s increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB.” Now, what would happen if mutual and pension funds finally comprehend they are massively underinvested in the one asset which China is without a trace of doubt massively accumulating behind the scenes is nothing short of a worldwide scramble, not so much for paper, but every last ounce of physical gold…
2 CHINA_GOLD_AIR-SEA_BATTLE...
From Wikileaks:
3. CHINA’S GOLD RESERVES
“China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with one stone”
“The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal (Shijie Xinwenbao)(04/28): “According to China’s National Foreign Exchanges Administration China ‘s gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the U.S. and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold’s function as an international reserve currency. They don’t want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or Euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency. China’s increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB.”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/china-s-immense-and-growing-impact-on-the-global-gold-market/15170
There is little doubt that China nowadays has the financial muscle to effectively control the global gold price. The mere sniff of a report that it is taking gold into its official reserves to counteract dollar decline is sufficient to, at the least, stabilise the gold price – and there seems to be little doubt that it is so doing, but at the moment in a manner that is not designed to de-stabilise the dollar or, on the other hand, not to contribute to a quantum leap in the yellow metal’s valuation – yet.
But – should China wish to de-stabilise the dollar by announcing big gold purchases into its reserves to replace a good proportion of its trillions of dollars, there is also little doubt that it could do so. It is an economic weapon which perhaps has more power than a nuclear one if it wished to bring America, and the West, to its collective economic knees through currency war.
So cut off gold to China?
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-us-action-in-mali-is-another-undeclared-war.aspx?article=4214526828G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Ron+Paul
(Obama) last week began his second term by promising that "a decade of war is now ending." As he spoke, the US military was rapidly working its way into another war, this time in the impoverished African country of Mali. As far as we know, the US is only providing transport and intelligence assistance to France, which initiated the intervention..
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-company-gold-silver-mali-exploration-program-delivers-excellent-grades-update-on-drill-results-at-the-barani-east-proje.aspx?articleid=855077
http://www.sabc.co.za/news/a/65656d0049a2edb0a589ef9f13675c4c/Mali-gold-reserves-rise-in-2011-alongside-price-20120101
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1945588.stm Mali's Golden Hope
3 CHINA_GOLD_AIR-SEA_BATTLE...
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Andrew_Marshall
"The publicity-shy Mr. Marshall is something of a legend in national security circles, both for his longevity and for his far-reaching network of acolytes across the government, academia and the defense industry. At 79, he is said to be the only current Pentagon official who participated in virtually the entire Cold War, beginning in 1949 as a nuclear strategist for Rand Corp., then moving to the Pentagon as a civilian official in 1973. He has been kept in his current job by every president since Richard M. Nixon.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Iraq_the_road_to_war#Currency_and_Empire
The first phase of the American Century was an era of Neo-liberal foreign policy because the United States was the hegemonic power and the US commanded overwhelming gold and economic resources in comparison to Western Europe, Japan and South Korea. At this time the US opened trade relations with Europe and Japan, and in exchange for this new trade Europe and Japan supported America's dominant role during the Cold War vs the Soviet.... The gold drain on the US Federal Reserve was a cause for serious alarm by May of 1971, and even the Bank of England joined France in demanding US gold for their dollars. The Nixon Administration opted to abandon gold entirely rather than risk a collapse of US gold reserves, and opted for a floating currency system in August of 1971.
The break with gold opened the door to a new phase of the American Century and in this new phase, control over monetary policy was in effect privatized, with large international banks such as Citibank, Chase, and Barclays assuming the role of global centralized bankers in a gold system, but without the gold! So-called market forces determined the floating dollar's level - and they did so with a vengeance. The free floating dollar combined with the 1973 rise in OPEC oil prices subsequent to the Yom Kippur War and created the foundation for the second phase of the American Century, the so-called petro-dollar phase.
4 CHINA_GOLD_AIR-SEA_BATTLE...
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Iraq_the_road_to_war#Recycling_Petro-dollars
The petro-dollar hegemony phase was an attempt by the establishment to slow US geopolitical decline as the hegemonic center of global trade while the postwar system overall eroded in a sea of bad debt for oil. The IMF "Washington Consensus" was developed to enforce draconian debt collection on third world countries, and to force third world countries to repay dollar debts while preventing economic independence in South America, and to keep US banks and dollars afloat.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Iraq_the_road_to_war#A_Petro-Euro_Rival.3F
Just as Britain's decline after 1870 incubated increasingly desperate imperial wars in defence of its empire in South Africa and elsewhere, so the United States is using its military might to try and advance itself in a manner no longer consistent with its formerly powerful economic base, since the economic base of the United States has largely deteriorated into that of a major weapons producer, to whit there is an increasingly limited world market; and here the dollar is the achilles heel of the United States... The second pillar of American dominance is the dominant role of the US dollar itself as a reserve currency. Until the advent of the Euro in late 1999, there was no potential challenge to dollar hegemony in world trade. The petro-dollar has been at the core of dollar hegemony since the 1970's and the dollar's hegemony is strategic to the future of all American global financial dominance - in many respects the dollar's importance is comparable to overwhelming military power.
"But – should China wish to de-stabilise the dollar by announcing big gold purchases into its reserves to replace a good proportion of its trillions of dollars, there is also little doubt that it could do so. It is an economic weapon which perhaps has more power than a nuclear one if it wished to bring America, and the West, to its collective economic knees through currency war."
Roos Rule - from agent98!
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