Wednesday, October 9, 2013

MTM Party Forum

Happy MTM Party day! The snapshot reported today was €989.078. The only thing a little bit interesting about it is that it's quite a bit higher than both the AM and PM fixes on Friday. The AM fix was €967 and the PM fix was €964. I guess it just goes to show the randomness of the snapshot, or not. Incidentally, there was a curious Snapshot day glitch on the LBMA website over the weekend, but it was corrected before the PM fix on Monday. Here's the updated chart:

I'm now accepting guesses for the year-end snapshot. How do you think the chart above will develop from here? ;D



byiamBYoung said...


Being the resident hand-wringer, I would guess that we should see the next snapshot at somewhere in the high 800's.

Of course, I also went on record some time ago that GLD would go into convulsions at 855 tonnes.

We'll see...

FoNoah said...

Comex and LBMA will be closed! We will all wait patiently for the BIS/ECB to say something.

byiamBYoung said...

Since the floor is quiet, I'll offer up a question to FOFOA and the core hive.

Is there a plan for a FOFCON this year? Might I suggest sunny North Carolina? The barbeque would be worth the trip! Not to mention the Calabash style seafood. Yum.

Just a thought!


Bright aurum said...

Prediction 21.12.2013 - POG EUR 820 max. GLD - 630 tonnes.
2014 - the year of the window - shut and barred! 10000 old USD POG happening for just a little bit longer than the Snapshot day glitch .

Bright aurum said...

POG failing exposed

Beer Holiday said...

My guess is that if the PoG crashes again it will be all over in short order, so I second FoNoah.

But if we make to the end of the year in tact, how would you guess a price from that graph?

I think someone pointed out (?) that the last points look like a continuation of the linear trend from ~ 2005-2009 (400 -800€) So I made the trend in Excel for kicks.

Total points 22
linear trend line, R = 0.98 (!)
extrapolated value = 985 € +/- 15.

The error is a bit of an underestimate (to make it more interesting).

Naughty Slumdog said...

Sorry, is off topic, but here is a quote from TE that sounds terrible known to us:

"America enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of printing the world’s reserve currency. Its government debt is considered a safe haven, which is why Uncle Sam can borrow so much, so cheaply. America will not lose these advantages overnight. But anything that undermines its creditworthiness—as the farce in Washington surely does—risks causing untold damage in the future. It is not just that America would have to pay more to borrow. The repercussions of an American default would be both global and unpredictable."

Well done FOFOA !
For me you are more of US I know and respect that the Washington DC crew.

Michael dV said...

It is all October the only day the intraday POG was near 1335 (which is the 989 times the $1.35 / Euro exchange rate) was 10/8/13 The rest of the month gold was less than $1320. at the same exchange rate that would be 98 euros.
Carelessness? Sending a message? Wishful thinking?

Jesse McL said...

Interesting TE article. They mention abolishing the borrowing limit. I wonder if the current situation with the US govt is somehow designed to lead to this. [/tin-foil-hat-off]

Winters said...

Year end snapshot = EUR 87,000/oz

Dante_Eu said...

Before december 21 2013, Big Fat Zero (0)! Any currency. :-)

JC said...

Soon we're not going to need a global reserve currency to account for trade imbalances if this keeps happening ;-)

"The European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China agreed to establish a bilateral currency swap line, bolstering access to trade finance in the euro area and strengthening the international use of the yuan."

As for the next snapshot, two guesses, either €751 or €33751.

Phat Expat said...

Well, considering the USD is looking like it is going to bounce to about 84.63, gold typically counter trends that. Current snapshot for GLD is SELL TARGET 1 = 122.10, TARGET 2 = 120.51

End of year? I'm not that bold, but highly unlikely it will be near zero. ;-)

Robert said...

In the last thread someone raised the question whether it is necessary to store gold in a foreign country if there is no risk of coonfiscation in your home country.

I think it is a good idea to store gold in two different countries, assuming it is not a burden to make such an arrangement.

The risk is not confiscation. The real problem is the inherest risk any time you try to take gold across an international border. Can you think of any possible scenario when you might want to flee your home country and go to a different country? Here in Europe one coin dealer put it to me this way: "The reason that the gold Swiss Franc remains so popular is that everyone knows Switzerland is the best country to go to if there is ever any trouble. It is the safest country by far." She said that's why people like Swiss Francs.

If you cross a border, there is a risk on the outbound side, but there is always an even greater risk on the inbound side. Will you be able to carry your gold with you where you want to go? In Singapore a guy was arrested a few years back for smuggling a handful of gold coins without making a declaration at the airport. In Hong Kong they don't really care, but in Singapore they might throw you in jail.

And in times of unrest, all of the rules that we take for granted today as being stable and predictable can very quickly become unstable and unpredictable. But in general, I think that the restrictions are most relaxed when you are trying to carry legal tender into the country you want to enter.

So the question is this: Can you ever imagine a situation where you would want to leave, with your gold, but where you are nervous about what might happen at the border? One way to manage the risk is to have some coins of the country you are most likely to go to (Switzerland?). Another way is to put the gold there now while everything is stable and predictable.

Franco said...

This term, MTM "party", is it something that FOFOA coined and it stuck, or does it originate elsewhere?

TontoD said...

Marked to Market is a commonly used term in Finance

Roacheforque said...

I don't know what the Euro "price" of gold will be at any given time. It all depends on the soon to occur monumental PARADIGM SHIFT on the horizon.

But until then, let us hope that GOLD can still be exchanged for FIAT so that the IMF can continue to assist those poor countries which depend so much upon it's favours.

After all, we wouldn't want to forget the little people.

jojo said...

Franco- it's a regular term around here for a few years.
RPG update2
euro gold
Party like it's MTM time

those are a few posts about it since about 2011.

byiamBYoung said...


THat ZH article piqued my interest as well, so I did some digging and found this on the site:

"On September 18, 2009, the Executive Board approved the sale of 403.3 metric tons of gold (12.97 million ounces), which amounted to one-eighth of the Fund’s total holdings of gold at that time ...

... In December 2010 the IMF concluded the gold sales program with total sales of 403.3 metric tons of gold (12.97 million ounces), as authorized by the Executive Board. Total proceeds amounted to SDR 9.5 billion (about $14.4 billion), of which SDR 4.4 billion was used to establish an endowment as envisaged under the new income model."

Other than a couple of odd transations in 1999-2000 with Brazil and Mexico (that did not alter the IMF's gold holdings net), that's the only sale of IMF gold since something like 1980. I wonder what the connection might be to the 2008 GFC and what the rest of the story is?

Anyone, is there anyplace in FOFOAland where I could RTFB and get some info on this sale?


byiamBYoung said...

athrone said...

Does everyone here also MTM their holdings in Gold? If so, what gain/loss are you sitting at today? Maybe we can see who is the winner for having the highest loss (being the closest to Freegold)

Sherlock said...


I used to keep a spreadsheet of my holdings which calculated my gain/loss on assets. After a while, I grew tired of updating it because I knew I wasn't selling anything for quite some time. Do you MTM your asset holdings? Do you take into account the devaluation of the currency used to purchase said assets to get a better of idea of how much value they've actually gained or lost?


Alex in Montana said...


I asked the question about holding gold in another country. Your response is exactly why everyone should consider a fall back position.

The reason is that once the default start and currencies get smashed (think Japan, the US, PIIGS and France) there will be huge and draconian capital controls put in place. You won't be able to move a pack of gum without a thorough search. This is already happening in Europe. Try taking gold out of Italy to Switzerland.

Anyone who thinks there will not be capital controls is kidding themselves. If you live in Smithville, Kansas and and have never left the state that is one thing. If you travel overseas, have property overseas, do business overseas that is another matter. The new FATCA law is preventing Americans all the world from opening bank accounts. Foreign banks don't want our money. I know as my daughter lives in one European country and my sister is a dual citizen in another European country. I had a business in a third European country with 600 employees. If you travel you need and want to move assets and capital controls will prevent that..

People who travel overseas and have all their gold in one country are making a huge mistake.

My question was, knowing it is smart to have some gold in other countries. which country would you put it in. Switzerland, Canada, Panama, Hong Kong and Singapore top my list but there may be others.

Bright aurum said...

@Alex in Montana
Based on this may I suggest the British Virgin Islands. If the people there don`t prey on your hard acquired earnings now, why should they later on. Once the dust settles you may reallocate to a place where gold flow is appreciated.

Sam said...

Athrone please tell me the day and the hour so that I can invest in da markets and get moar gold right before the reval!!!!! Why else would anyone here care about the paper price of gold if we believe there is going to be a revaluation?

In my opinion a gambler buys something at the market value and hopes it goes up. Most investors today are just glorified gamblers. A true investor makes his profit at the point of purchase not the point of sale. I know the real value of gold isn’t anywhere near $800-$2000 an ounce. I recognize that it’s value if much higher than that. So I made my profit when I purchased my ounces and I make more every time I buy another one. So unless you can tell me the day and the hour or you know of an investment that is undervalued by a couple thousand percent I’ll keep stacking

John said...

@ Alex

You bring up a very good question to which there is no clear and unchanging answer. You should expect "unfriendly" treatment to physical gold holders in the "pre-transition", "transitional", and "post-transition" periods IMHO. Already today, the world's largest private vault/storage company, ViaMat, will no longer allow Americans to use any of their facilities outside the US. This policy (in place since Jan 1) is at the explicit behest of the USG. Expect similar developments in other countries. It's difficult to foresee in advance the friendliest jurisdictions but geographic diversity makes a lot of sense especially places within China's orbit. While the US freely strongarms Switzerland, they are careful not to mess with the China and related parts of their sandbox. One thing everyone (from mini-shrimp to maxi-shrimp) can and should do now....swap out of large size formats (kilo, 10 ounce, 100 gram and even a portion of your one ounce coins/ bars) and get the smaller more portable versions, some of these can be swapped for very modest premium differentials. The better portability of the smallest formats may come in very handy during the transition. FWIW

Franco said...

Alex in Montana:

I get Switzerland, Canada, Hong Kong, and Singapore. But why PANAMA???

Alex in Montana said...


I have friends who own property there and recommend it.

Personally I like nothing south of the Rio Grande except maybe Chile. What is ok today in Latin America could not be ok in the next election.

ampmfix said...

Ok, let's narrow it down, HONG KONG??? It's communist China for god's sake, not British anymore, people keep forgetting that. And while we are at it, Singapore? sorry but me not trust them, morality and all that, they give me the creeps. Canada? hmm, yes, maybe for an American, unless it is soon invaded by the US...
So yes, the choice is always Switzerland (for a non-US person at least, they are the only nationals banned over there; even if you are not a US citizen, you are banned from opening a bank account if you hold a green card! the Swiss bankers are terrified by the US, of course).

John said...

@ ampmfix

I would suggest you book your next vacation to either/both locales (Hong Kong/Singapore) and see with your own eyes. At a minimum you will have a wonderful time and you will also see where the world increasingly is parking their wealth and lots of it.. And that includes the wealthiest Chinese many of who are also influential in very high places. No one will be messing with that kitty and in my opinion it's safer than the US. There's a reason Snowden sought safety there (Hong Kong). The Chinese are playing a 100 year game and are considering every move financially very carefully and very thoroughly.....the US by contrast, quite sadly, is playing a two week game....literally. As someone here has already pointed's CheckMate....but the US has neither the smarts or the dignity to call it quits.

Phat Expat said...

I don't buy into this moving your possessions to foreign lands for 'protection'. Especially precious metals! In a crisis, as the one evolving, you will be one of the first tossed under the crisis bus, without hesitation; especially in Asia (rule of law? lol). No, I recall a quote: "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't know" R. Taverner

As to this CheckMate nonsense; one word, bah! ;-)

ampmfix said...

Thanks for the advice John, but I will stay out of China for the time being, they are masters of deceit and their judicial system is horrible, no chance. I will not travel to the US either for similar reasons. In fact, unless there is a case of force majeure, I do not set foot in countries were jail inmates do not have, at least, heated swimming pools... ;o)

Jeff said...

Alex, it sounds like you haven't gotten past your fear of confiscation, though you now call it capital control. Forget the old paradigm, for freegold the gold must flow.

FOFOA: what I write about here is a functional change for physical gold. And in this new function governments will find it in their best interest to encourage citizens to hold gold for the purpose of decentralized clearing. This will be preferable to the alternative which will be holding your trading partner's currency.

And when the dollar finally collapses in value, a THIRD and final default will take place. The US government's existing dollar-denominated debt of $11 trillion will become instantly worthless.

And once the printing press source of funding is gone, the US will be forced to settle its trade deficit with real money on a 1 to 1 basis, no more fractional reserve shenanigans. If this is done centrally, as it is now, then the government will face a whole world of claims saying the gold already belongs to them. For its past sins, the government cannot take this chance. The other way to settle an ongoing trade deficit is on the local level, through millions of small transactions.

This is freegold. And this will pit trader against foreign trader, rather than government against government, or central bank against central bank. It will allow for trade goods to flow across borders and keep the economy alive so that the government can continue to collect taxes. This system will become very clear, very fast. It may be hard to imagine right now, but once it is forced into action by necessity, it will be clear. Even to the US government.

ANOTHER: Gw, I would say, all forms of physical gold is good to own. Even the rare ones offer the "art form", yes? Even in war, the art work is looted first, then the jewels, and always food. I prepare for not the war of men, but the war of currencies! This conflict will bring forth a new concept for many: "western governments will encourage people to hold physical gold "! When the Euro has defeated the Dollar, citizens will be asked to use gold as a savings, for holding the Euro will be frowned on. Gold will not bring your "capital gains tax" as the mines will be taxed to compensate.

Yes, rare gold will be good, but not as liquid as "bullion type" gold.

Thank You

Warren James said...

I'm a bit rusty on my Freegold theory - in regards to the updated MTM chart, can someone refresh me on whether the model makes any predictions about the MTM snapshots?

I'm aware a plunging POG is expected just before official transition but in regards to an MTM, in the short term doesn't this just show that ECB assets have lost value compared with previous periods (negligence)? Is that not affecting the banks performance in the short term? Are there any significant thresholds at which the falling POG would force major 'assets vs. currency issued' problems? Or is it all just slow-gyration-popcorn-theatre? Regards,

Sam said...

+1 Jeff

Grumps LaBastard said...

I just shake my head when I read this fantasy of people saving in gold. The notion doesn't stand a chance against a positive real interest rate. Agents on all levels from the wage slave to the central banker will at the end of the day want a yield.

Reality Show said...

TF :)
You are not alone! Typo

Reality Show said...

GimpLaTwatface, don't read it then.

byiamBYoung said...


Well, hell yes I'd like a yield. But today's marketplace is built upon a seriously shaky dollar-based crazy-assed house of cards. I honestly don't understand why it hasn't collapsed already.

So, I'm not keen on putting my money into that casino. What to do, what to do?

Gold will keep my value. Oh, hell, yes it is down compared to the bump to 1900+.

But that is paper. And the paper market is tattering.

This thing might go on for years. Or, it might blow next week.

Whatever. I am 20 years from retiring. I've got time, and I see the writing on the wall.

So, chase your 2.5% yield (or whatever)

I will gladly surrender that margin (if it comes to that) for the serenity of knowing that I own the asset that can shepherd my wealth to the other side of the giant dislocation that we are headed into!

I guess we just see the world differently.


Luke said...

Grumps you think like a shrimp.

Phat Expat said...

Though FG 'theory' is valuable, up to the point of transition, it will likely be less-so beyond. I would hope that most are able to recognize this and cast off their baggage and realize investing will still be prominent and necessary post transition to obtain any significant returns on 'excess' dollars, euros, rmb, etc... To think otherwise truly does make you a shrimp; or should I say, shrimplet. ;-)

Grumps LaBastard said...

But byiamBYoung, I am uncovering evidence that gold does not serve as a store of value during inflation. In fact, when real rates are positive gold underperforms CPI. I repeat, gold tends to underperform CPI, not keep up with it when real rates are above 2%.

What I'm trying to warn you guys is that after the transition when the dust has settled and a real + rate can be tolerated then if you want to hold onto your newly-won boon you'll have to move up Exter's pyramid.

I wish this were not so. It would be nice if we could stay secure in gold in perpetuity, but historical data indicates not. I'm sorry to be a contrarian, but it wouldn't be right to withhold what I'm uncovering from the gold community.

Roacheforque said...

Perhaps we should ask why was the gold really sold and who was (were) the buyer(s).
As I recall reading of the sale also at ZH in 2010 and asking myself that then.
To give up real physical that large, even for the IMF, is quite a price to pay just to convey the sentiment that "we don't value or need the gold, we prefer the paper proceeds".

Though today's reference to the sale, after the fact, is certainly an attempt at that.

One Bad Adder said...

A resounding Show-of-Faith in the future yesterday (coupled with a stellar day in the SM) ...all courtesy of inklings the Debt-ceiling issue was to be put behind us. Let's watch how next week pans out.
$PoG (aka Poor 'ol Gold, Surreal Gold) languished in the negative vacuum of non-future assets as expected.
The ONLY path to FreeGold is out through the "price" bottom I feel, however there seems to currently be plenty of effort directed toward preventing that particular (inevitable) outcome IMHO.

Motley Fool said...


Wow. Astounding revelations. Certainly not one of us was aware of gold's historical price movements relative to interest rates. Your brilliant research and observations shows your clear understanding of the forces at work, and the proper investments and motivations at all times. Thank you for sharing your brilliance with us.

/sarc off


S P said...

Interest rates are approaching the black hole of zero. What lies on the other end post freegold? Who knows.

The natural interest rate for currency on demand is zero, and real interest rates are almost always less than nominal interest rates. This is an iron law. In freegold, gold is not lent out so it doesn't have an interest rate. It is held only as a reserve.

Once this switch in psychology occurs, interest rates are irrelevant. You will always have some gold in the background, never dishoarding it completely. High real interest rates will not coax it out, once the lesson is learnt that there is no risk free rate of return.

Please understand what the "resurgence of risk" means for humanity. We've been living in a dream world of no consequences, an artificial house of cards.

After freegold, there is simply no rate of interest (not 10%, not 100%, not 1000%) that can change it, because people will understand that currency and inflation risk are always greater than the nominal rate of interest.

Think about it this way: is there any bull market in this world that would convince you to hold no cash or cash equivalents? Suppose stocks and bonds and real estate (or even gold) were all rocketing into space, at all times, in an infinite upward move. Would you then decide...wait a second, I shouldn't hold any cash at all...every single time I get a paycheck, or get some cash, I must use it or invest it immediately?

But this doesn't make sense! Because cash is the method of payment, the means of exchange. Which means you must always carry some. Even if you just carry it for one darn day, in the anticipation of some bill you have to pay or some spending you have to do, you would be missing out on the gain in stocks.

Unfortunately the human mind is not like a trading program, that can instantaneously move into or out of any asset class, at zero cost. Even if it were, it would never be practical or even lawful.

It's the same with gold. Once the switch in psychology occurs, people will never disown it completely. They will go into and out of it as they see fit, yes, but gold will be thought of us the wealth reserve that simply must be held, in some amount, at all times.

Bright aurum said...

@ Warren James
The euro zone CB has a huge asset side MTM revaluation buffer that does allow a fall in the POG to a certain extent without affecting its liabilities.
One prediction was that a rising POG during MTM snapshots would signal a CB/giants` support for the current $IMS, paper gold, the petro $ and vice versa.
The gold tonnage leakage from ETFs and other visible storage facilities is largely seen as a precursor of the disappearing flow of gold due to falling POG. This could lead to free gold as it will destroy the MTM mechanism and set the arena for arbitrary setting of the POG by interested parties.

Warren James said...

@Bright aurum, good answer, thanks. So looks like they can sustain pretty much any POG within a certain range. I may task myself to creating a chart of the various balance amounts to try figure out where they are offsetting the POG increase/decrease. Cheers,

DASK said...

@Warren, bright aurum: if you look on the balance sheet:

the buffer is acutally on the liability side (Liability 11, ofsetting the gold asset), called revaluation accounts. I did a back of envelope calculation a while ago and I think it would run out if the POG was about 300 EUR7toz

mcmagicfly said...

China calls for new global currency
By Joe Mcdonald, AP Business Writer

And the European Union's top economy official said the dollar's role as the international reserve currency is secure despite China's proposal. "Everybody agrees also that the present world reserve currency, the dollar, is there and will continue to be there for a long period of time," EU Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said Tuesday after a meeting of the European Commission.

So, why would the EU Commission invest so much right now into defending the status quo for a long long haul? They either have to lie hard because FG is around the corner, or they are not in charge at all, and BIS would call the shots independently (or not at all).

mcmagicfly said...

G'day, long time lurker, first time poster.
I've always assumed (and hoped), FG/RPG will materialize well before the "western markets" hit hard that crude oil depletion rates of 3-5% per year, in order to avoid the synergetic mother of all crashes, namely the global financial system reset and the utter shock from peak oil cliff realization going main stream (aka ultrapanic) both happening at the same time !

Simply, I hoped there will be somewhat rational actors among the giants, which would reset the $ystem say 6months to 1-3years prior the long and perhaps terminal emergency.

By all accounts as of now, this is most likely not going to happen, from latest revision of data by Dr. Hirsch and others, we know the timeline for leaving the current crude production plateau for that downward spiral is sometime around Q4-2012 +1-4yrs, which puts us now in almost overdue position as of now in Q3,4-2013.

I'm somewhat very unpleased that with the exception of poster "SP" nobody incl. the host of the blog-forum writes about it here, while it's the most important debate to have. Simply, the idea FG/RPG snaps one day, saver's mindset trips into phyz. and all live happily everafter in some sort of functioning (or growing) industrial society is an illusion. That correction would work perhaps in 1971 or 1999ish, not now.

The superorganism, meaning all the individual decisions tree, delayed FG/RPG time after time after time window, and in this fashion took the system to the upmost pointed pin head corner. A most concetrated point, usually when system snaps/resets up there. It's a societal/civilization crashing moment, nothing less comming out of it.

Therefore I'm perhaps the case of selfdiagnosed pre-weak hands, I simply can't gamble my family safety on the FG/RPG concept and some insane Giants. In fact, I deferred several times "large" phyz. purchase (possibly dozens of % networth) by firstly studying all the available discussions, concepts and data. Conclusion: I'm not going to proceed with it. I'll rather plunk the meager/shrimpy "savings" into productive farm equipment (non oil based). Sincerely, I wish you all strong hands the best of luck, but you better needed it. Sorry, I just see that phyz. won't be for the shrimps, it's not about the goldbuggy government gunpoint confiscations, nor hard deflationista hell freezing over for decades. No, it's about the most likely outcome as ever at such elevated point, i.e. very messy and brutal societal hard reset, tupsy turvy mingle, we have had couple of times in past say 6000yrs.

michael3c2000 said...

@mcmagicfly - That story is over 3 and a half years old. The Europeans are moving forward with less double-speak, as there's less dollar usage to speak of.

michael3c2000 said...
Some of you may have seen the news stories this month- there are giant hornets thriving in Asia. They can sense those who fear them.

mcmagicfly said...

/They reposted it on web as for 2013

Obviously, the thrust of the argument is in my second,
longer post. Again, silence, no response..

It's hard to digest the position into soundbites, the literature is volumnous, perhaps the best short summary attempt so far is this Steve Ludlum's blog, perhaps Gail's as well:

About "the end of modernity":

Triangle of Doom "compression to Event chart":

Gail's blog:

michael3c2000 said...
Currency swap signed with the EU a 'landmark'
(China Daily) 09:33, October 11, 2013

Largest deal outside Asia is big step toward yuan internationalization

China and the European Union signed a currency swap agreement to boost trade and financial stability in a move that also marks a landmark step for the yuan's internationalization.

The three-year swap line with a maximum value of 350 billion yuan ($57 billion) is the largest the People's Bank of China has signed with a foreign central bank outside of Asia, higher than the 200 billion yuan agreement with the Bank of England.

The People's Bank of China said in a statement on Thursday that the deal can help provide liquidity support for the yuan market in Europe and promote overseas use of the renminbi. It is also beneficial for facilitating trade and investment...."

mcmagicfly said...

There is only one possible "hidden" option though, which was sporadically mentioned here and elsewhere. Specifically, that FG/RPG already happened recently (past upto say 10-13yrs) in the upper echelons of Giants, all those big bricks transactions 400oz going for say EUR10-30K per oz. Retail and non essential world governemnts shrimpy market obviously still capped on the paper pricing scheme sandbox for kiddies. In the same vein, it's quite possible, albeit complicated, to maintain fake two or three tier gold market into the future, even post peak crude shock for some time, say upto 5yrs. As mentioned before, one of the top priorities of Giants and assorted power brokers (BIS) is not to lure too much attention from the wimpy pitchforks peons.
All that leading to the very same conclusion: not benefitial for shrimp savers.

mcmagicfly said...

Hopefully, last bit for today, we often hear it can't happen here, we don't need no stinking secrets or secrets don't and won't last, someone would have talked.. That's obviously all very shallow sheepish and gatekeeping defense line as of now.

Thanks partly to recent leaks or plain old declassification of numb documents the preponderence of evidence is such we can say with 99% credibility:

They crippled soviet/russian economy 70-80s by pushing embargo on latest drilling/recovery technology in order to hasten their first "technical" peak of crude production. Checked.

In addition to previous, they capped the pricing for crude and gold on international markets 1980s big style, paying Saudis bellow the table in phyz. yellow bricks (most likely from the post WWII stash of friendly governments allied with D.C.), again to cripple the export revenue of adversaries. Checked.

That has been all "secret" for 2-3decades, although mused about by many independent thinkers. Therefore, two-three tier ongoing gold market today and some with FG/RPG price and paper price, no problemo..

Roacheforque said...

If 800,000 oz of paper gold being sold into the market doesn't convince you to trade some debt for an old shiny yellow coin with dates and mottos of a bygone era sonn to be restored doesn't motivate you, then ...

Happy farming ! I hear the flower of understanding can be raised as quite a cash crop.

Happy Weekend!!

mcmagicfly said...

Will, it has been and it is still very tempting, some people recommended here on the blog to short that paper bitch as early as in Nov12-Jan13, obviously they are "very wealthy" even by now, few months later, no question about it.

However, those are the illusions of "easy instant wealth", eldorados waiting somewhere behind that rock only for YOU, and what have you. This world doesn't work that for the little people in the long run.


Indenture said...

mcmagic: The doom and gloom of a world shutting down because of a lack of energy is not new and the same Gentlemen who sit at the Big Table of the BIS and understand the necessity of flowing gold also understand the ramifications of peak cheap oil. A functioning worldwide monetary system is slightly more important than peak cheap oil.

Roacheforque said...

Ahhh the little people can walk in the footsteps of Giants, either to their demise, or greater glory. The Key? Strategic moderation.


Hedge all possible perceptions until that strong wind blowing from mother Russia blows away those thoughts of nations in the wind.

Happy Weekend Trail Pardner .... Yeeehahhhh!!

Woland said...

Winters: Excellent Santa Claus/Frosty Snowman

Bandar sends greets: {;<)>>

mcmagicfly said...

Indenture, thanks for the reminder. To be fair, I know our host FOFOA and other locals as you now, don't dispute or deny it, but simply state (not very often) the fact, FG is or ought to be compatible with much elevated/reset induced gold:oil ratio. Well huh ok, but it's almost like printing a 750p dense treaties and on the p.666 somewhere down in tiny font to conclude:"..and by the way you all die soon by horrible deaths.."

Perhaps, for you the repricing from cheapo oil into much expensive or perhaps Joe Schmoe unbotanium levels means squat, but 7bln. people will go to the wayside in quite short order.

For me it boils down as follows, FG scheduled to happen plus or minus synchrotime (or even later) during dropping down from crude production plateau means no realistic hedge. If scheduled sometime sooner than that, we are talking, but that option I disputed in previous posts. Perhaps just my silly world view.

Brady said...

fofoa, if I were to guess, i'd guess lower than the Q4 2012 snapshot & lower than the Q2 & Q3 2013 snapshot perhaps I'll go with 901 for the Q4 2013 snapshot...

also, no fireworks until at least Feb 1 when Yellen takes over and then throw in 6 months - 1 year & may see some fireworks thereafter...or maybe not :)

Sam said...

Buy only as much gold as your understanding allows. Put the rest of your currency into :

before it's to late

Bright aurum said...

Yes my bad. The gold ledger is on the asset side while the rev. account is in the liabilities side.
The conclusions are though correct. The buffer protects the other liabilities from being withdrawn out of the system because of the lack of corresponding asset valuations

KnallGold said...

FT article cites true costs of Gold mining around 1200$/oz, with low/high of 900 resp. 1400. The sound of suffocation.. and now I hear that a resolve of the debt ceiling issue is negative for POG, not that it was positive before (but we take it as it comes).

A hard day again for paperbulls, what's also beginning to nag is the lack of seasonal "spice". An offer for the HMS, mining bulls crowd: changing one's mind isn't that bad in a paradigm shift - actually, those NOT changing their mind will become suspect! Think about it.

Grumps LaBastard said...

What if oil is not a depletable resource? Curious how US production was capped and MidEast brought online as gold window was closed. Simmons always use to bemoan the opaqueness of Saudi reserves inferring the well was running dry. What if it was the opposite? To keep the myth of scarcity going to justify a high oil price.

Oil fields yet to be found or developed are known. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency has got the planet mapped out. What do think has been launched from Vandenberg all these years?

Michael Martin said...

"Renewable oil" is not so far off a concept or so far off conceivable.
But even now that the diamond "scarcity" has been exposed to be artificial, you don't see diamonds dropping in price. Most people still buy their diamonds at the jewelry shop at the mall but even the discounted outlet malls still make a killing selling the shiny rocks.

So what does the revelation of the renew-ability of oil mean for FG/RPG? Absolutely nothing.

People will still pay for oil for whatever TPTB dictates it is. Which is also what will happen to FG/RPG; the revaluation will be a decision from TPTB and not a "grassroots" goldbug movement.

Michael Martin said...

If someone came into my home and kept on yapping on and on about why I should stop eating meat and start being a vegetarian and adjust my grocery shopping to get only vegetables and leave the steaks alone, I'd lose it and go apecrap on that person.

I guess some people have more patience than me.

Edwardo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Edwardo said...

Grumps has returned with a theory on oil
He is sure there's a lot more beneath the soil
So go place your bet
But please don't forget
That's it's not all according to Hoyle

mcmagicfly said...

"People will still pay for oil for whatever TPTB dictates it is."

Hm, kind of similar idea didn't pan out as flashy for the Roman Empire in the end though. They are probably still waiting for the spice (grain and slaves) keep on comming in clockworky fashion, arriving at the mainland ports, somewhere in that alternate time-space universe neverending loop..

Sorry, the end of cheap oil, changes everything and it's binary, non reversal phase shift. Giants likely don't care that much with high survival rate, they will likely prosper as neofedual landlords of the terminal scarcity age. But shrimps should care, and shall not understimate the dangers of following giants in their sticky wet footsteps, that's my position.

michael3c2000 said...

The latest Kitco video with Daniella Cambone is interesting. Jeff Christian actually gets a little into the debt ceiling, budget, government closure implications. Very concernedl, thinks gold will be a good bit higher by Wednesday. His forecast range may or may not come in- he doesn't seem long-term bullish yet- but I've never seen such concern from him like this:

Sam said...


Some advice.

1) Don't tug on superman's cape
2) Don't spit in the wind
3) Don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger
4) and don't trust the scholarly wisdom of someone that spells "coming" with more than one "m"

michael3c2000 said...

Gerald Celente new forecasts, analysis

mcmagicfly said...

Sam> cheap or cheaper, perhaps cheapest shot of them all, grammarnazi making fun of non native speaker/writer of blog comments, feeling good now? Aren't you rather deficient on courage unable attacking hard data and analysis but the messanger? Is that Laherrère's 10yrs old peakoil prediction going nicely, fitting the reality depletion curve of today as predicted or not? The same with Hirsch and others. I certainly didn't claim it as mine scholarly wisdom but theirs, you twit..

Michael Martin said...

Sticks and stones
May break ones bones
But grammatical jabs
Can easily incense a person's self importance.

The discussion here is FG/RPG with oil as a side-component of the theory. If people want to talk shop about oil and survival as the focal point, plenty of other blogs out there to comment on and thresh out the issue further.

Not so long ago, some other posters were trying to include "silver" as an additional focal point of FG/RPG and am glad we're past that. Now, can we try to get past the "peak oil" or "non-peak oil" theories/opinions?

If suddenly the world learned that the government had long ago already perfected nuclear fission and abundant free energy could be had in as little as 3 months after commercial production of nuclear fission units for public consumption? Does that change FG?
It could. I don't know. I'd have to flesh out the theory before commenting with conviction on this blog. I don't want to insult the host or its highly educated audience with half-baked, not well thought out theories.

Motley Fool said...


I note you certainly are negative about our future energy prospects as a society.

So just doom and gloom and reversion to feudal states?

I am not so gloomy. I am certain the energy crisis is solvable. Some very interesting research is being done in this field as we speak.


Motley Fool said...

Michael Martin

Fwiw we have discussed the influences of abundant sources of energy here before. I unfortunately cannot point you in the right direction, as I don't remember where.

In short, it causes a even higher price for Gold under FG, as society's potential is that much more in that scenario.


mcmagicfly said...

Michael Martin> Well, it's true, there is no reason to placate this blog into separate peak oil or energy descent related topic. I was just frustrated with the fact it's a latent almost invisible component of the whole FG/RPG paradigm. As Motley Fool said you have to dig deep enough on this blog and posts to find it. The number of my comments today where over the top, that's for sure, I didn't intend it.

Motley Fool> science and research is not energy, and needs-takes decades to scale up even on government mandated crash programme, think war effort and unlimited powers. The sad prediction is that FG might come at the most inconvenient time, say delayed to 2015-2016 when the public will start to smell there is something terribly wrong going on here. Once you inject RPG into public realm of this fear of ongoing 3-5% (or perhaps regionally even higher) depletion rates (layoffs, gas ration), "civilized" people are going bananas, the whole veneer of civility might and likely will go down, gold stash or not in just a few years time. The "arab spring" phenomenon is just outsourced peak, which will shortly land on the formely more affluent countries.

poopyjim said...

The latest Kitco video with Daniella Cambone is interesting.

Heh. Videos featuring Daniella Cambone are always "interesting," amirite? B-)

byiamBYoung said...


Something like 70% of our oil consumption is transportation. Even if there is a peak oil reality, if the world transitions (as it currently is) to hybrid/electric vehicles, the energy could be provided by CNG/coal/alternatives for quite a long time. I mean a couple hundred years.

I think there are a number of ways around decreasing oil production.


byiamBYoung said...

So, who dumped the 800,000 some ounces of gold onto the market this morning?

And why?


Phat Expat said...

Okay, I must confess, I hate losing so... And since it's only paper, who cares, right? ;-) Closed at Target 1 for 44% gain.

byiamBYoung said...


Congrats! So, you'll be ponying up for Goldschläger for the house, right?

Gary (not the evil one!) said...

Love it. "If Gold can't rally now, when can it?"
Paper buffoons.
Mid month lets see in the $1100's.

Gary (not the evil one!) said...

Jim Grant - FG?
What to do? Let us face facts: We have defaulted in the past. Let us confront the implied message of the Federal Reserve’s pro-inflation policy: We will default in the future, though no lawyer will call it “default.” And let us preempt the world’s flight from our intangible money by taking steps to fashion a 21st-century improvement. We have the gold and the brains to find the solution.

Phat Expat said...

Goldschlaeger is an embarrassing drink for me to serve since I have this need to run the elixir through paper filters; I really have to see someone about that... So, Jaegermeister it is! No wait...

Edwardo said...

Gary, (NTEO) I have, long since, wondered if Jim Grant has read this blog, and, if so, what his response was.

Bright aurum said...

The advent of FG will mean quite a bit of tapering of discretionary and (thus) wasteful use of oil in the West. That alone can put off Peak Oil for about a decade.

Bright aurum said...

That is because the oil production will conserve impetus (fields will not go in full production outright) due to lagging demand.

Luke said...

Peak oil is just a pessimist porn fantasy. The resources are there and more are being discovered yearly. Price will solve everything.

mcmagicfly said...

Thanks for the quick "opinion survey" guys, I'll leave the topic for now as a strong case for continuing the contrarian position though, i.e. the base case of delayed/worst possible timing for FG/RPG from the shrimps viewpoint..

Phat Expat> congrats and please keep these targets [coming], so rational actor's analysis is being validated into the future up to point of the unknown date of reset, might serve as kind of a warning system.

Woland said...

If you're looking for some fun, read the 458 comments
which follow Jim Grant's piece in the Wa Po Opinion
pages, from which Gary's quote is excerpted.

BTW, IMHO Jim Grant's gold guru is Lewis Lehrman,
not Fofoa. (at least that was true in the past)


Phat Expat said...

Yeah, Pessimist porn fantasy; where Pessimist = Envirowacko

Just how often can they be wrong? Global warming, no wait, Climate change. Yeah, just in case we enter a cooling period (and we are/will). Bogus fear-mongering pseudoscience.

Thanks but, other than a few comments here/there, I will be observing from the bleachers, with a beer or two or three, enjoying the show and the swags/wags for the end of all things Western ;-)

Indenture said...

America’s default on its debt is inevitable - James Grant

Dante_Eu said...

True story

Once upon a time there was a dude called Nikola Tesla. He constructed a Wardenclyffe Tower, financed by JP Morgan. Most of the people at the time thought Tesla was plain crazy but, after all, he invented polyphase alternating current system and a few other usefull inventions. That is why he was financed by JP Morgan to build Wardenclyffe Tower and the story goes like this:

Tesla: Here's the tower JP, now we can send information wirelessly along with wireless electrical power.

JP Morgan: Wow, nice looking tower Tesla! One thing only, where's the meter so that we can see how much power each earthling have received?

Tesla: No need for any meter, JP! We are going to utilize the ionosphere to transmit electrical energy without wires, at any point on earth, free of charge. The only thing you need is a receiver on the other end.

JP Mogran: Dude, Are you crazy! Take that thing down!

Or so goes the legend. :-)

PS That happened approximately 100 years ago.

Edwardo said...

Here are a few of may favorites from the WaPo comments to Grant's article.

There is no substitute for the dollar.

This is a bizarly ignorant column. Has the author been to college?

Funding the spending we need is more important than the currency standards we use.

The government just needs to default on what it owes the Federal Reserve. If, the Federal Reserve can print money out of thin air, it can also wipe that debt off its books just as easily.

Edwardo said...

Woo hoo, what a great idea. Problem solved!

Gary (not the evil one!) said...

Quite educational... my fav quotes from the opinion pages:

"I mean, let's get real here... This idea that gold is worth so much is bogus... Here's the example that my college economics professor used... Man is out on the desert and without water... He staggers up to a guy who has a table set up out there selling just two things: gold and water... Which does the half-dead guy pick??? Duhhhhh... That is what is known as "the paradox of value" therory in economics whereby things that were once valued are no more... "

"Lord save us from gold bugs. Which is the More rational basis for valuing a country's wealth? The amount of a basically useless yellow mental that happen to have buried under thier territory or stashed away in thier vaults, or a worlwide consensus of the overall value of their economy, the Stability of their government and the trustworthiness of their banking system? The latter is what "Full faith and credit of the United States" means, and it is right now, so highly esteemed that when you compare the yeild on Treasury Bills to the worldwide rate of inflation you realize we ar paying NEGATIVE INTEREST on the money we borrow. That's right the world is paying US to hold their money form them. That's a very good place to be and one all these pro-default idiots threaten to ruin for us"

"Gold as a commodity backing money is obsolete; there is not enough of it above ground to back the world's wealth. Oil is consumable, limestone is too plentiful. The IMF will step in and define a new "global reserve currency" through Special Drawing Rights. Keep your currency but it must be pegged to a new reserve currency administered by the IMF or your country won't be allowed to issue debt in the world market. "

"I liked James Grant better when he stuck to just pushing for the Gold Standard on wack-a-doo websites and other gold-fetishisizing publications."

Beer Holiday said...


Lol at the first comment , I'm familiar with the lameness of the you can't eat gold we have you can't drink it

If was the dude in the I'd buy some more oxygen since I like breathing, and screw that Stradivarius the salesman has, its useless.

Luke said...

I guess that same guy in the desert would take a stack of $100s over the water?

mcmagicfly said...

You know what does it mean for paper-pog should they flirt with anything like "debt-jubilee", debt writeoffs/internal swaps etc., at some stage? No joke, there are several high level econPhDs touring the world over (and debriefing policy makers) with these novel ideas now. If ever performing such a stunt before FG then the anomaly would last perhaps just a few days. So little time to dust off that proverbial heavy duty dumpster truck tonnage to load some..

onedayfly said...

Better sell your gold or trade for silver people..

170.000 tons of secret gold are stashed on Hawaii according to Karen Hudes.


Reality Show said...

Today I awoke to find several tonnes of organic topsoil dumped near my front lawn, even though I hadn't organised a delivery day yet with my supplier. I'm sure you can all imagine the quote that ran through my head as a big smile took control of my mouth.

Edwardo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Edwardo said...

Physical gold will not be defeated
Ignore all the nabobs who say, "You can't eat it."
It needn't be scran
For that we have flan
To think otherwise is just conceited

ein anderer said...

Does anybody know what could have been the reason of this astonishing Oct. 4th LBMA »glitch«?

ein anderer said...

Could it happened by accident that the LBMA system revalued Gold just on Snapshot day?

Beer Holiday said...


I like your 1,2,3 beer strategy especially related to watching climate models diverge from reality

S P said...

Those of you here who don't think peak oil is a problem haven't been paying attention.

The entirety of our industrial civilization depends on releasing the stored energy of fossil fuels. Depletion is relentless. It doesn't matter how much is left out there, it matters how quickly you can get to it and produce it (our society runs on power, not energy per say). If it costs too much to extract further fuels, any company or government that attempts to do so will go broke. The price action in oil suggests this is a few years away. This is happening already with Shell in shale oil.

Peak oil is the chokepoint, after that no amount of additional energy from coal, gas, nuclear, solar, wind, or any alternative can be produced fast enough to keep up.

Why do you think there is so much turmoil in the Middle East? Do you think it's about "defending us from terrorism"? Do you think it's about "protecting Israel"? Don't make me laugh. We are there to ensure the ongoing flow of oil onto the global market is priced in fiat dollars. We will do ANYTHING to make sure this continues. We will brutally suppress any attempts by Arabs to control the energy that belongs to them, and we will go bankrupt in the process and might possibly even start WW3.

I'm sorry, but human beings just aren't that intelligent. If we were...then why didn't we initiate freegold a long time ago? Answer that. We are absolutely swimming in energy and complexity and yet nobody has the wits or guts to actually construct a better system.

You think once freegold happens, we will find trillions of barrels of new fuels, we will control nuclear fusion, population can increase to 8,9,10,20 billlion people, we will colonize space (like on your favorite childish, fake science fiction series), medical technology will allow us to live to 150, 200, 300 years old?

Happiness for everybody until the end of time, and glory to the universe conquering human species?

Dream on.

Grumps LaBastard said...

I don't think oil is a fossil fuel. There's a body in the solar system that's drowning in hydrocarbons. Were deenosaurs there? Vast seas of plankton?

Integrated Oil is hydraulic despotism in another form. Why after the 70's oil crisis did we not build energy efficient homes with solar cells, windmills, walking access to markets? Why in the 90's were there tax incentives to buy gas-guzzling SUVs? This was to keep the current high, the more petrodollars to be recycled back thru Wall street and to keep us metered.

mcmagicfly said...

Crazy times stimulate quite strange outcomes.

Following up on SP on a related path, I guess anything can happen and people ought to be ready. Sometimes I feel the current global cosumer population (not only in the west) has dumbed down and sucked even deeper into the subservient status ssooo far, that I'd not be shocked to experience if one day the freegold is announced in one sentence and the austerity on steroids (like 40-70% rationing from now on) in the other. Basically, killing both birds by one stone. And the world of sheeple would just open the mouth, shake head, "..whatever.." and return to their trusty videogaming sets, for a moment.

Well that might be the precious few moments to do anything meaningfull with your pocket supernova concentrates. Not sooner. Not later.

Tom R said...

Interesting theory Grumps. I think the conditions on Titan that result in the hydrocarbons, are quite different than Earth. On Titan, methane basically functions like water does on Earth, and water is as solid as stone.

Another thing to ponder is this. During the various Gold Rushes, people would go where the gold is, and literally dig money out of the ground. If oil is that plentiful, why aren't wild-cat drillers finding gushers on a regular basis. There is a lot of oil and gold left on Earth, but the easy stuff has been found long ago.

Dante_Eu said...

This one is for all gloom-and-doomers out there:





FoNoah said...

And this one is for all you Trolls out there.

Just substitute the word "perspective" for "day", and go RTFB.

Grumps LaBastard said...

Big capital is needed to tap deep oil out of reach of wildcats. What they could tap is probably under national land preserves that are gradually ending up under UNESCO dominion, another beard for whoever you want to call the Custodians.

William Engdahl is worth looking into:

Franco said...

"I don't think oil is a fossil fuel."

I feel dumber after reading that.

Edwardo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Woland said...

As an Apathist, I rarely cite Scripture. However;
Luke 8:26-37 is,sadly,relevant here. (once again)

Grumps LaBastard said...

If oil is biotic how does it get so deep? Or maybe it is biotic, but is a product of living extremophiles, not ancient biomass.

Edwardo said...

Feeling dumb after reading LaGrump
Like a mark or a fool or a chump
Best learn to scroll
Past this pestilent troll
Or you'll look like you are Forest Gump

ampmfix said...

BH, you owe me a keyboard, my nose bled red (Valdepeñas that is, not blood!) Thanks!

SP, it is not lack of intelligence, it is greed, lust, and 5 other reasons, impulses..., lack of serenity and sobriety

Dante, thanks for reminding me of Wardenclyffe tower, here it what it means to me:

/SleepingVillage/ said...

Biotic oil, abiotic oil, hydrocarbons...

Wow, chemistry! You put the "right" stuff together and you get some shit that burns...

Some of it comes from decaying plants and animals, science has taught us this. Some of it may be abiotic, yes... we're still learning. The fact is: none of us knows for sure how much oil every entity has access to, or what the "real" price is. We speculate. Not trying to kill the conversation, but let's try to keep the macro view.

There's energy all around us, plenty of it, we just need the right antenna...

Take a Turn

mcmagicfly said...

" In the end, anyway, money is only worth something if there is an economy that makes it possible to buy something with it. And if the economy collapses, money becomes worthless - no matter what form it takes. It has happened for gold at the time of the fall of the Roman Empire just as it has happened for homes in the early stages of the fall of the Western Empire (aka "globalization"). We are not yet arrived to the point of burying our gold in our backyards but that, too, may come to pass. "

You make often fun here of Mr. CrashedThatTeslaRoadsterMMaloney, but he might be right, albeit for a slightly different reason, if anything, there will be only limited time to offload the post RPG gains on some greater eternal "progress" optimists. Let the asians lick their tons of newly gained oz. just outside the disco green reflecting rivers, polluted air and bondaged population into concrete dungeons designed by kindergarden style architects..

Phat Expat said...

It's always funny to observe the level of programming the Greens have received. Historically, this group of people have been quite easy to control. I wonder why that is?

mcmagicfly said...

Pictures from the history at the end of times:

I remember the young aristocrat and likely very beautiful lady of Pompei as she suffocated from the gases of Vesuvius and then as covered with hot ashes, crunching in the corner with her slaves and relatives. Holding many oz. in the palm of the hand, most likely the whole liquidity of the estate at that moment.

Moving to another time and place. As Wisigoths sacked the Rome, looting everything, numerous bags and carts just overflowing with shiney gold traced with blood, they also never get the eternal rest with their gains. To the contrary, Wisigoths had to move around the whole ClubMed in following years, chased by other more powerfull players, loosing it all bit by bit. It's the course of the supernova excrement !

byiamBYoung said...


Buzz buzz. You apparently have spent too much time clinging to the turd of incorehence, repeatedly sponging it with your ever more soiled and smelly proboscis.

Might I suggest you flit off somewhere where your ramblings are more likely to be appreciated?

And by all means, wipe your feet.


mcmagicfly said...

Ramblings, incorehence?

That's all you can bring to the debating table?
He who can't see how the history rhymes again on similar wave, is either lazy to double check his premise from time to time or not smart enough to discuss these topics here at all.

Gary (not the evil one!) said...

Maybe I'm not that smart either, but...

Ramblings, incorehence?

Yeah - that is about the way I would put it too from debt jubilee to gases of Vesuvius to supernova excrement. Whatever McFly... I'm happy you have your farm equipment and ultra-bleak vision - that no one has the inclination to debate. I guess we all have to act according to our own motivations and vision/expectation of a future world. Give the Forum credit that we all know, full well, that we can't eat our AU... and that the posters here don't focus on prepping - they are other Forums for that. If you want to confront FG with some specifics, I'm sure you'll get responses but the apocalyptic vagueness you export is, frankly, boring.

mcmagicfly said...

Thanks for the reply, well, perhaps you fall directly into the "very lazy camp reader" category though.

I'm in no way shape of form proponent of "debt jubilees" - it was a follow up on previous link to zhedge provided by Edwardo. It's perhaps a minority force now, but the matter of fact is there are number of quack PhDs touring the world as we speak and pitching these ideas to desperately stupid governments, notably Mr. SteveKean, J.Sachs and others..

On FG, are you kidding me?
I pointed very specifically where the problem with shrimps view and "no stress" anticipation of FG is at the moment. Namely the elevated risk of launching it "foolishly delayed" into the chaos of accelerating crued depletion rates, which would be nothing short of adding fuel and oxygen into the fire of systemic chaos.

Simply, there are participants with class like Indenture, MF, and SP, perhaps some others. And on the other hand, people insisting on the virginity of their personal bubble..
There was no prep talk, only one tangential mentioning of it.

And If you didn't like my historical references, too bad, it was clearly the best part served to inquiring minds.

Motley Fool said...


It certainly seems like if we live on with the current fantasy mentality we will needlessly burn through most conventional energy sources in short order.

This is another reason why a change in economic system as soon as possible is crucial. Under FG, I think the value of energy, in its relation to gold, will be recognized and we will start using our available sources more efficiently.

Currently we are certainly partying like its the end of the world energy wise.

That said there are some very interesting technologies in the energy space that are emerging, and also will emerge, that will both complement and perhaps someday completely replace our reliance on fossil fuels.

With present proven technologies( and by that I mean beyond internet claims) we do indeed have a problem.

Still I do not agree that the onset of FG will exacerbate the problem, irrelevant of timeframe.


Daniel McDonald said...

Very interesting read. This is my first time perusing this site. I see the Apocalyptic view vs an eventual economic Stabilizing view. Most notably, I see the pervasive optimistic bias and second hand bias thought process in the comments that reads like the writing on the wall.
I see so much will and desire of all viewpoints to try to develop an understanding that will preserve, to the best of each commentators abilities, their standard of living -- if not increase that standard.

Sadly, for myself, after reading all of your very intelligent and well informed comments, I can not help but to remember that I cannot take gold ,nor farm equipment, nor real-estate, nor any hard assets with me beyond the grave.

I hear the FG argument; I hear the Food Argument. I acknowledge each view.

I buy gold every month. Every year, I expand my garden and my seed repository.

Every year that goes by, it becomes less and less important to me.

Every year that goes by is another year close to my death.

When that time comes closer, I HOPEFULLY will not care about gold nor food nor energy.

Hopefully, as I grow older, I will be able to enjoy life as opposed to spending most of my time thinking about how I need to position myself to enjoy life.

I spend too much time preparing for the future and too little time living in the present.

-Just my thoughts

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