The world didn't end in 2012 and it's not going to end in 2013, but that doesn't mean things won't change. The one constant—the only constant—is change.
"There are 31,530,000 seconds in a year. A thousand milliseconds in a second. A million microseconds. A billion nanoseconds. And the one constant, connecting nanoseconds to years, is change. The universe, from atom to galaxy, is in a perpetual state of flux. But we humans don't like change. We fight it; it scares us. So we create the illusion of stasis.
We want to believe in a world at rest—the world of right now. Yet our great paradox remains the same. The moment we grasp the now, that now is gone. We cling to snapshots, but life is moving pictures, each nanosecond different than the last. Time forces us to grow, to adapt, because every time we blink our eyes, the world shifts beneath our feet.
Change isn't easy. More often, it's wrenching and difficult. But maybe that's a good thing. Because it's change that makes us strong, keeps us resilient, and teaches us to evolve." –Tim Kring
Is 13 lucky or unlucky?
The number 13 is considered to be an unlucky number in some countries. The end of the Mayan calendar's 13th Baktun is superstitiously feared as a harbinger of the apocalyptic 2012 phenomenon. Fear of the number 13 has a specifically recognized phobia, Triskaidekaphobia, a word which was coined in 1911. The superstitious sufferers of triskaidekaphobia try to avoid bad luck by keeping away from anything numbered or labeled thirteen. As a result, companies and manufacturers use another way of numbering or labeling to avoid the number, with hotels and tall buildings being conspicuous examples (Thirteenth floor). It's also considered to be unlucky to have thirteen guests at a table (Last Supper). Friday the 13th has been considered the unluckiest day of the month.
The Number 13 is a Karmic Number. Number 13 is the number of upheaval, so that new ground can be broken. The number 13 has great power. If this power is used for selfish purposes, it will bring destruction of the self, and in turn, this will bring dis-ease and illnesses. Adapting to change gracefully will bring out the strength of the 13 vibration, and decrease any potential for the negative.
In a tarot card deck, XIII is the card of Death, usually picturing the Pale horse with its rider.
Based on an internal review of records, Dilip Rangnekar of Otis Elevators estimates that 85% of the buildings with elevators did not have a floor named the 13th floor. Future building designers, fearing a fire on the 13th floor, or fearing tenants' superstitions about the rumor, decided to omit having a 13th floor listed on their elevator numbering. This practice became commonplace, and eventually found its way into mainstream culture and building design.
Year 2013 vehicle license plates in Ireland
Vehicle License plates in the Republic of Ireland are such that the first two digits represent the year of registration of the vehicle (i.e. 11 is a 2011 registered car, 12 is 2012 and so on). In late 2012 there were concerns among members of SIMI (Society of the Irish Motor Industry) that the prospect of having "13" registered vehicles may discourage motorists from buying new cars due to superstition surrounding the number thirteen and that car sales and the motor industry, (which is already ailing) would suffer as a result. This concern prompted SIMI to approach the Government of the State and request that 2013 registered vehicles have their license plates age identifier string modified to read "131" for vehicles registered in the first six months of 2013 and "132" for those registered in the latter six months of the year. As of August 2012 the government, bearing in mind the potential loss in VRT (Vehicle Registration Tax) revenue on new cars, are considering the proposal for implementation. When the proposal was released to the media on 25 August, it was met with mixed reception.
The American flag has 13 stripes in honor of the first 13 colonies.
Apollo 13 was a NASA Moon mission famous for being a "successful failure" in that while the crew were unable to land on the Moon as planned due to a technical malfunction, they were returned safely home.
In Formula One, the number 13 is not used. As such, the numbering goes 11, 12, 14, 15 under the current numbering system.
The number 13 is the most-commonly registered jersey number in modern roller derby.
Several successful sports figures have worn the number 13.
In Italy, 13 is also considered to be a lucky number, although in Campania the expression 'tredici' (meaning 13) is said when one considers their luck to have turned for the worse.
A repressed lunar cult
In ancient cultures, the number 13 represented femininity, because it corresponded to the number of lunar (menstrual) cycles in a year (13 x 28 = 364 days). The theory is that, as the solar calendar triumphed over the lunar, the number thirteen became anathema.
The number 13 in the Coperos religion (small culture in Brazil) is like a God number. All coperos must know that this number can save humankind.
I am not superstitious. But I do wonder what will be written about 2013 after the fact on these types of pages. Will it be remembered as a lucky year, or an unlucky one?
Last year was:
Year of the Surprise
Year of the Surprise
I have an idea for what to call 2013, but I'd like to hear your suggestions in the comments!
Year of the _______
Year of the _______
And finally, there's one thing that I'm watching for the next week and a half. It could be a signal of sorts, but I wouldn't put too much stock in it.
Last year this week, during the Asian trading hours the night before Snapshot day (Friday, Dec. 30, 2011), the euro price of gold mysteriously levitated a whopping €32.89 from the previous day's London PM fix of €1,184.16, which would have been a disappointing decline since the October, 2011 MTM Party which marked gold at €1,206.39. I made a comment about the timing of this unusual overnight levitation in this post. In it I noted that "evidence from Sept. '10 and April '11 seems to suggest that year-end and mid-year might be more important [MTM parties] than the other two quarters."
Then, last May, I posted two cryptic tweets:
Two new markers. Sorry no details. Freegold Puke Indicator & Goldhog day. If he sees his shadow, it's game on. If not 6 mo. of kick the can.
— FOFOA (@FOFOA999) May 16, 2012
FPI already fired. Goldhog day is June 29. ;)
— FOFOA (@FOFOA999) May 16, 2012
I will now explain those tweets. The following is almost verbatim from an email I sent Warren back in May explaining my tweets:
Jumbo Shrimp selling 95% of his gold was my Freegold Puke Indicator (or FPI) which fired.
At the time of my tweets, the euro price of gold was €1,211, already below the April and January MTM party numbers. And it was only about €5 above the October MTM party. So my Goldhog day prediction on May 16th was that if we had a June 29 snapshot of around €1,216 or less, it was game on for Freegold. The "window of opportunity" would be open! But if it would be €1,243 or higher it meant another 6 months of kick the can. There’s more to it than just that, but with Jumbo Shrimp’s prediction of the paper gold price collapsing, I thought this was a good opportunity to take the temperature of official support for paper gold.
The thing is, paper gold is so relatively valueless that it’s no wonder when the price falls. The real wonder is when it rises. It’s almost as if someone is supporting paper gold. Remember my old Timing is Everything post? The theory there is that the Eurosystem CBs are actually supporting the paper gold price somehow. That theory came straight from Ari, and it has held true so far. On Dec. 29th 2011, the euro POG magically levitated in the middle of the night from €1,184 to €1,216 so as to beat (in the eleventh hour no less) the October MTM party which recorded €1,206. In the April MTM party it was up again to €1,243.
I don’t necessarily think that there is some target rate of appreciation like 18% p.a. If the Eurosystem CBs are supporting the paper gold price at key times like MTM parties and GLD pukes, I think it would naturally show up as some sort of an emergent pattern. But that doesn’t mean there’s a specific target. It’s just the average of what whoever is doing it considers a reasonable amount: not too high/obvious and not too low/meaningless. Over time, the average would emerge as a steady long-term appreciation in the gold price.
So why would Eurosystem CBs be supporting the paper POG? I have some theories on that.
June 29, 2012 was mid-year Snapshot day and my Goldhog day. Gold was €1,211 on May 16th and I predicted that if it was €1,243 or higher on June 29th it would mean six more months of kick the can. If it was €1,216 or lower it would mean "the Freegold window of opportunity" was open. If it closed anywhere between €1,216 and €1,243 on June 29th it would be too ambiguous to be predictive one way or the other. Of course we got €1,246.62 on June 29th which meant six more months of kick the can.
Well, my FPI fired again last week and now we are a week and a half out from another Goldhog day and, as of this writing, euro gold is languishing at €1,255.94. That's a full €121.48, or almost 9% below October's MTM party, yet still €9.32 above July's. So I'll take another stab at the predictive powers of Goldhog day. But first, here are the results from the last six MTM parties:
July 2011 - EUR 1,043.38
October 2011 - EUR 1,206.39
January 2012 - EUR 1,216.86
April 2012 - EUR 1,243.45
July 2012 - EUR 1,246.62
October 2012 - EUR 1,377.42
This year, because New Year's Day falls on a Tuesday, Snapshot day is actually Friday, January 4th (it's usually in December) and the results will be released the following Wednesday, January 9th. So here's my "prediction" (and remember that I hate doing this stuff):
If the recorded price on Friday, January 4th, 2013 is EUR 1,246 or lower, it's game on for Freegold meaning that the window of opportunity is now open because official support for paper gold has apparently ended. In other words, there may be no system support the next time something breaks. But if the recorded price on January 4th is EUR 1,389 or higher, it's six more months of kick the can. And if it's anywhere between EUR 1,246 and EUR 1,389 (which it is today) then the €PoG will be too ambiguous to be predictive one way or the other.
This is not your typical TA-based prediction. I hope you can tell the difference. If I was interested in TA I would be looking at the $PoG and not the €PoG. This is simply a moment in time when we can apply a specific theory, one that Ari alerted me to two and a half years ago, and take a fresh reading. Like I said, it's just something I'm watching that could be a signal of sorts, but I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Here's a chart of euro gold that will update each time you reload the page: