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Eat all kinds of stuff but in minuscule amounts, and more often (try the desert plate diet or eat standing up). Chew like if it was a chore, not a pleasure, if it is a pleasure you will down it faster, and eat more, and that hurts. Carbs are digested in the mouth not in the stomach, so if you swallow them before chewing on them thoroughly you will have heart burn. Alcohol in small measures, like 40-80grs of ethanol per day for a 150lb man. Have as much salt AS YOU UNDERSTAND. Smoking a little is not damaging (2-3 per day). Stretch well everyday and drink good water in the right amounts (4 liters is too much, 1 too little). Walk, walk, walk.
That's my plan, but I have never gotten down to really doing it... I think the basic thing to be PHYSICALLY healthy is to dislike eating and drinking, so you consume little amounts.
@ Michael dV,
Yes, I really love those little houses, especially because they are of a size that side steps most building codes. Score one for freedom.
I've made/used a rocket stove. Great cooking source with relatively few tiny sticks.
I have 4 acres of arable land in the middle of nowhere and intend to build a few tiny cottages there with my sons, with us providing all of the planning and labor. I want to impress upon them the concept that they can work with their hands and do some things (like car repair, etc).
We were all ready to get started a few years ago, then I read something about gold and hyperinflation, and, well...
Cheers
Lord Sidcup
Ketogenic diet works well while you are loosing weight. It is the honeymoon period. Then you reach the stall. All the benefits disappear at that time.
It may take several months though before you reach that point.
In diet fat is gold and carbs is fiat, but you need both :-). Carb is like the Medium of Exchange, you need a little of it, not too much, but you do need it. And fat is the thing that is stored for the long term. Fat can be the major source of energy.
Just a quick note on the Ketogenic diet. I lost 50 pounds on it, and my cholesterol dropped 60 points and stabilized. Been on a variety of it with my doctor's blessing for a couple of years, and have never felt more in control of my food intake.
Freefat!
beer
I still have friends who climb (they started the climbing in the Vegas Valley in the 70s. If you are needing a partner I'll hook you up with fun folk.
Lord S
one word: bacon...did you know that you can buy canned bacon especially prepared for the coming zombie apocalypse?
I have some and it is great. I will face the future unafraid of want.
Interesting post referenced on Ted Steer this morning.
It is at http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/action/media/downloadFile?media_fileid=2353
It is called the Thunder Road report
and FOFOA is mentioned on page 18.
"Given the ongoing interventions by the central planners, there will be some
important differences in the way that this long wave ends and we transition to
the next one. In particular, the way in which debt is extinguished compared with
previous cycles? C.V. Myers, a market guru from the 1960s and 1970s, argued that:
“Ultimately, every penny of every debt must be paid — if not by the borrower, then by
the lender.”
However, as financial blogger, FOFOA, pointed out:
“someone will pay. But there is a third option that is missing from Myers' dictum. ‘The
hit’ can be socialized…if it cannot be worked off by future labor, it will be worked off
by past labor, the net surplus of which was erroneously stored in debt and dollars. The
icing on the cake is that it is also the past labor of ‘someone else,’ if the profits can be
capitalized and the losses socialized. Precisely the process we have witnessed over
the past three years, for those with eyes to see.”
He then referenced the famous “front lawn” quote from an anonymous, but prophetic,
source in the gold market writing more than a decade ago:"
To jojo's last post wherein he quoted someone
asking why CBs are hoarding gold.
The CBs are hoarding gold, whether all CBs are equally aware of it or not, to recap themselves so as to prevent their own destruction when the $IMF system goes from its present critical care state to the morgue. The CBs have recapped the commercial banks by taking the commercial banks non performing debt at par, but the CBs have no way to discharge that debt (and whatever else they need to unburden commercial banks and other entities of prospectively) so they must drastically revalue the one asset on their books that will subsequently render the debt harmless. In the meantime they buy time in myriad ways.
The nutritional scientists that I know all deplore the state of the 'advice' that most dieticians spout out. There is a real disconnect between the hard science of what has been discovered about weight loss, and the confusing messages given to the public - particularly since the 1970s.
Anybody wanting accessible entry points to understand the science behind weight-loss and: fat, cholesterol, fructose, glucose, etc would do well to try Gary Taube's books. There is the 280-page easy to digest version; or the 640 page small-font, lots of footnotes, fully referenced version.
Ed
Why do the "less advanced" PIIGS live longer than their Nordic neighbours? Because of the mediterranean diet.
There are no good DIETS, just eat what's available, and has the smallest amount of industrial processing, with MEASURE (doesn't that sound like savers vs debtors ???). It certainly does to me.
@ampmfix:
Maybe sun has something to do with it. Vitamin D and stuff like that. PIIGS take it for granted but if you live in Scandinavia you learn to appreciate it.
@DP & HMS
Speaking of "IQ", just yesterday Victor came around to flex his great freegold IQ muscle and explain how BRIC will have to use Euro FG system as well. I must say it's a fascinating idea, and the only thing exceeds the breadth of its imagination is the depth of its hilariousness. I was so impressed that I commented on it here to recognize the brilliance of the FG theory.
Keep the good work, folks. I am sure BRIC will be more than happy to join yet another FIAT system they have no control of after just being burned by the last US$ one. Ain't let nobody tell you it's impossible. Ain't nobody can mess with your reasoning and rationality. All hail to the freegold. Amen.
Hello Friends,
It's Friday night. You're all alone in your mama's basement. We watch this new porn together, yes?
I don't know about y'all, but I sure hope the carpet matches the drapes ;)
Costata,
Here's the most famous bootlegger from around these parts. After the revenuers finally got him, he killed himself so he didn't have to go to prison. And yes, that's his actual tombstone.
RJ
ampmfix: Who says PIIGS live longer than Nordic people? The life expectancy seems to be about the same in Sweden as in Italy and Spain.
Also, there's no such thing as "the Mediterranean diet". It's an invention by sloppy diet researchers such as the infamous Ancel Keys. If there's any common denominator for what they eat and drink in all the various Mediterranean countries but not further up north in Europe, then it's probably more olive oil and more wine. But that's hardly enough to qualify as a "diet".
The D vitamin thing is a good point, though, Dante_Eu. At least this far north (Sweden). there's none of it to be had from the sun for at least six months a year, because in the winter months the sun never gets high enough in the sky for the relevant part of the sunlight to get through the atmosphere. This has long been an underestimated problem, but new research suggests that more than 50 percent of Swedes have a severe vitamin D deficiency in the late winter, after the summer stores have been used up.
FOFOA,
Excellent. A broad church.
http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/a+broad+church
APIIG,
Great effort on the bookmarking. Much appreciated. Thank you.
All,
When reading about central banks adding to their gold reserves bear in mind that the additional reserves could simply be a reclassification of gold acquired at some earlier point in time, the unwinding of a swap or lease entered into years ago etcetera. CB announcements tell us nothing about timing.
As A/FOA explained the BIS is in the ideal position to move gold where it needs to go. I have no clear idea how they decide how much is needed in a given CB or how they decide on the ideal distribution among the CBs. But one thing is clear, the gold reserves are being widely distributed.
I think it's also noteworthy that the CBs of the dollar bloc countries don't appear to be participating in this redistribution. IMVHO readers in these countries should reflect on the suggestion that you "become your own CB" because our CBs may be caught flatfooted when the transition occurs.
oldinvestor,
Yes, it would appear that Paul Mylchreest the author of the Thunder Road Report has been participating in the FOFOA brain hygiene program.
RJP,
Would it be fair and/or accurate to observe that the host in the video you linked to is a kinder, gentler, whiter relative of Don King. I think they should do a show on that dude's do.
THX Jeff. It's been rough saling lately but my compass is still true.
And now ... TO THE CABERET !!
FREEFAT!
Steerpike likes that.
He has been a freefatter long before he became a freegolder and the funny thing is that in order to arrive at freefat one has to allow for a similar mental paradigmshift to happen.
Not only did his health benefit enormously from freefat but most of all it enhanced his sense of social freedom and personal control
of things.
Can he just briefly advance his view on this
off-topic topic since time misallocation and poison concoction seem to be among the favourite pastimes of de forummembers.
Most people would agree that carbohydrates or sugars are unhealthy but very few people dare to draw the only possible conclusion from this
premiss.
Take for example the Atkins diet:It's low carb,high protein and low fat.
If you lower your carb intake why compensate
that automatically by increasing your protein intake?
It doesn'nt make sense.
Although protein can and will be converted into sugars the primary function of protein is not energysupply but bodycellrepair and replacement.
We only need 1 gram of protein per kg bodyweight,which is not that much really.
The crux is in the fats,to be more precise,in the saturated fats.
The demonization of (saturated) fats in the
Western nutritional model is ludicrous.
Bodyfat is just that:saturated fat.
Energy can only be stored by de human body in the form of saturated fat.
10 kg of bodyfat represents an energy of 90000kcal.
We only need about 2000-3000 kcal a day so when the feast is over and the famine starts the body
can tap energy for over month from its own reserves.
Why then should it be bad if we ate the damn thing?
In contrast,the amount of glucose the body can store (in the liver and the muscles) will last you not even half a day.
Thats why we are grazing carbs all day:breakfast,snack,lunch,snack,dinner,snack..
We need carbs for energy? Think again.
There is no such thing as an essential carbohydrate.
The only organ that needs the glucose and can't
do without is the brain and that glucose is provided by de release of glycogen by the liver.
That's not to say one should ban carbs altogether.If you do that you become ketogenic
which is unpleasant and your muscles will melt away because they are converted into glucose to allow
for fatmetabolism to take place.
According to Jan Kwasniewski,a Polish doctor who figured this thing out, the optimal poportion between carbs/protein/saturated fats is:0.8 gr carbs per kg bodyweight/1 gr protein per kg bodyweight/3gr saturated fat per kg bodyweight.
I'll wrap it up here before I get kicked out.
In conclusion,Steerpike bows his head in apologetic humility.
He has washed his mouth with soap and now he will crawl back under his stone until he is called upon on the day of reckoning.
ciao
Edwardo,
HaHa!
Due to my profession, I could probably talk about that guy's hair long enough to fill an hour long documentary. He looks like a dandelion with a perm.
And speaking of Don King, he'd make a great politician! He even knows how to answer questions about the Fed.
Don King, the king of canned oratory.
Steerpike!
Freefat solidarity comrade!
We watch this fat revolution together, yes?
Cheers
Cage Match Alert
There's an interesting stoush going on between Bron Suchecki and Dave From Denver incited by Turd Ferguson. It concerns Bron's critique of Andrew Maguire's post about GLD etc.
http://www.perthmintbullion.com/au/blog/blog/12-12-07/Response_To_Dave_In_Denver.aspx
It's worth copying the link for future reference. Bron provides links and context to his body of work on ETFs, GLD etcetera. A "potted history" that could be drawn upon if you find yourself in an argument about ETFs versus physical as part of your personal gold advocacy activities.
Cheers
Hey all, I was hoping to garner some feedback for my metal position which is currently mostly AG.
First of all I didn't arrive here from the Joe aka the futurist although I have talked with him in the past, nor do I mistakenly believe my silver has anything to do with HSBC or any other bank holding manipulation. I am a humble guy trying to make my way in the universe who came across silver at about $14 bucks and has been acquiring it ever since. I reached my physical goal which was to have enough silver that I could not lift it all before the price hit $24. Hopefully that will indicate to you that I am serious about stacking physical and not about my relative weakness or inability to lift heavy items.
I also collect gold just so you don't draw the wrong conclusions that somehow I am wed to silver. I don't discriminate when it comes to metals, nor should you. Further I am not emotionally attached to my silver. It is simply a vehicle to realize profit in fiat that can be utilized for purchasing assets at some point in the future. My silver has been very profitable for me so far, in fact more profitable than my gold so I see little reason to toss it with the current conditions in the market. The bullishly developing head and shoulders pattern as of Dec 2012 plus the seasonal silver charts for the past few decades indicate silver is a winning bet especially at this time of year.
The initial conclusion I am drawing from watching the FOFOA videos and doing a modicum of reading on the blog is that gold is a pure store of value and that silver is not. Can someone post or link to a valid argument why this is so ? I heard poopyjim talk about a 10,000:1 ratio or some other eyebrow raising comment so I thought I would come to the site, introduce myself and try to listen to a rational argument about why I am out to lunch on my silver holdings. I truly am interested in learning more about why gold trumps silver. I am not judging you nor do I expect to be judged but rather to learn what has made you go “all in” on gold.
Finally I would like to know how many of you have actually visited a developing country for an extended period of time. The reason for my question is because I think many of the gold holders have not experienced a day of work or supermarket shopping in East or South Asia which leads me to conclude that claims of $5 silver have little to do with the reality of life in the developing world but rather a North American economic bias. Thats fine for those who live in NA but this does not apply to me, nor to the majority of people currently living on the planet nor the vast numbers of future residents of our world. Africa alone has a billion people with most of them being under 20 years of age. I seriously doubt these individuals are going to be holding any gold but will need an alternate form of exchange.
I suppose one can argue that $5 silver is relative since it deals with a fiat number rather than something such as a fine dinner or a nice suit. Actually I purchased 2 very fine suits plus an extra jacket and slacks in Shanghai a few years ago for the price of one ounce of gold. I also hosted a dinner for my friend and his wife in a nice Chinese restaurant for the price of 1 silver ounce. Not to beat a dead horse but China has used silver as a medium of exchange for about 1000 years. I think that would qualify it as money don't you ?
Anyway I don't want to come up in your collective faces claiming I have all the answers or any such BS like that. I simply want to learn more and reckon this is a great place to do that.
I want to thank you very much for posting the videos on YT, it was fun to watch and I learned a little as well.
Looking forward to your comments
shaken but not stirred in Japan
lex
A very interesting lecture MikedV. What I found fascinating and horrifying was that the hint/clue was right there in Key's multi-varient linear regression analysis. Although his method was not flawed, it was incomplete. This study set the policy and dietary model for the next 30 years. I had to go back (@ 35 minutes) and listen again to make sure I heard correctly.
In terms of diet, I'm lucky because I don't like those foods we normally call snack or junk food, if I liked them, I would eat it. I only drink water or wine ;) and 1 cup of coffee a day. My weakness is cheese and bread, and I've recently switched to an organic whole grain bread this is without wheat, but does not have a starch and/or soy filler to compensate.
Whoever mentioned that carbs are digested in the mouth .... this is not entirely the case. Saliva contains salivary amalyse, an enzyme that starts the digestion of starch.
Great debrief MF :D
Hi Lex
What a polite introduction.
Refreshing.
I may as well take this opportunity to make a correction to the debrief. While it is true to that my first comment was on One Tin Soldier, the post that was linked in ZH was The Shoeshine Boy. This is the post that got me hooked on FOFOA, and would be my first suggestion in your reading, as it relates.
The following posts, in this order, are then relevant to the question you posed.
Focal Point Gold
Kicking the Hornets' Nest
and
Costata's Silver Open Forum
I hope this is of help.
TF
Seems I messed up one link there :
<a href="http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/12/kicking-hornets-nest.html>Kicking the Hornets Nest</a>
Thanks Wendy. :)
:(
Well, I suppose you will find it. ^^
Thank you MF.
I will do my reading now.
I suspect I will be back to debunk some of the positions as I suspect they are written from a western consumption level perspective, however I do not wish to jump to conclusions without doing the reading first.
Thank you for the links
Hi Lex
Your eastern skepticism will be well received here. ^^
We also hold that the western mode of thinking on such matters are wrong.
Looking forward to your response.
Peace
TF
@battleship
You will be suprised to find there are freegolders who live in developing counties. Personally I've spent a fair amount of time in China, and it pushed me in the freegold direction.
There is a video on youtube by the former head of the world bank, Sir James Wolfensohn (another Skippy), where he talks about the world being tipped on it's head - the 80-20 wealth rule flipping to 35-65 (percentages reversed)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a0zhc1y_Ns
I think reading between the lines he's talking about freegold, and gold (and revised international settlement) is the vehicle for the shift in wealth and power. But that's just IMVHO, and I recommend an open mind, there is much to learn from this blog for all of us.
Cheers
BH
Edit: the correct time in the link above is about 4 minutes in, the whole talk is worth while if you have the time :-)
Appreciate the comments and specific feedback BH. The video is now loaded and awaiting a viewing however I just finished reading Costata's silver "takedown".
I have to say that I am not very impressed with the argument. The main crux of his position appears to stem to;
1 Max and his SLA are out to lunch which I agree with.
2 Blythe is a foxy kitty ready to take use to the litter box in a zero sum game. This I also agree with.
3 Bix Weir is drawing the wrong conclusions and that silver is a trade and not the end game so to speak. Again this is a rather mundane conclusion to make and doesn't really prove anything other than Bix and those who source him are mistaken.
My responses are as follows;
Max is first and foremost an entertainer. While he talks about financial issues he is in it for the exposure. The SLA is a sideshow in a world of bread & circus expenditures. Kind of a waste of time reading about it in Dec of 2012, but when given a suggestion by the FOFOA community to read something and the possibility of gaining insight is a wager I am willing to make until proven otherwise. I very much appreciate MF taking the time to suggest reading it.
Blythe is a smooth operator and I firmly believe that she is smart enough to ride the silver express up and down its run and gun cycles. It is not a one way trip and there are plenty more opportunities to make money in silver. Just because she saw an opportunity to take silver "down" or "long" does not mean that situation will once again come into play. To ignore it means you leave profits unrealized. It is not an argument against silver but rather a position supporting it as a viable option.
I personally have little faith in much of anything Bix says as I am interested in criticism of my position not confirmation of it. Since I don't listen to him nor take much of what he says at anything other than GO TEAM SILVER, it has little bearing on my initial statement.
I still have more reading to do courtesy of TF err MFs links but I wanted to respond to BH's most recent posts.
Firstly if you lived in China than you know that silver is a medium of exchange. While Wolfensohn et al may prefer gold as a "better" solution it still doesn't not remove silver from the table. 1000 years of history is the same argument made in the case of gold right ?
While there are freegolders living in developing nations I humbly suggest that the vast majority of stackers in those places are not freegolders and with the current prices of gold will never be holders of it. While you and I are fortunate enough to to able to afford it does not mean that others will not seek an alternative means of ensuring buying power. Unless the suggestion is that Maloney is right and we will soon ID each atom of gold for transaction purposes.
I have purchased goods and services in Asia for silver. That in itself is sufficient proof as far as I am concerned that it still warrants attention even if the consumers higher up the ladder wish to poo upon it.
Thanks again for pointing to another possible source of information.
lex
Steerpike!.
Go Freefat! I´ve been a Freefatter for about 1,5 years and find it very liberating. Had not seen the particular amounts you cite, but I broadly agree with the ratios, altough, as they say, your mileage may vary.
MF funny how your smoking turned this forum into a personal health fanatic forum. ;-) Didn´t see that coming did you?
Hi Lex
I will simply note that that wasn't my suggested reading order.
Given that was your chosen starting point, I found nothing much disagreeable in our reply.
Cosata's open forum is almost an afterthought. It does not convey our core reasoning as to why gold rather than silver.
@Bjorn
Nope! Clear out of left field. xD
TF
Proverbial Economies: How an Understanding of Some Linguistic and Social Features of Common Sense Can Throw Light on More Prestigious Bodies of Knowledge, Science For Example
http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~hsdept/bios/docs/shapin-Proverbial_Economies_2001.pdf
Learned expertise describes and commends itself as it describes and condemns vulgar knowledge, but this study of proverbial economies suggests three things: first, that we ditch the traditional straight-up contrast between proverbial common sense and the cognitive resources of learned expertise; second, that we look to differences in how, as Huxley suggested, knowledge economies are organized, how their members interact with each other and how they relate to their cultures' stock of knowledge; third, that the objects of comparison be individuated: 'science' versus 'common sense' doesn't work, but why shouldn't we be interested in the differences and similarities obtaining among, for example, accountancy and botanical taxonomy, fly-fishing and neurology, cooking and chemistry? 'The devil', as the proverb has it, 'is in the details'. But, as another proverb says, so is God.
[All answers necessarily create new questions]
@ Lord Sidcup
Re the diet. Absolutely right. Most people don't need to go overboard but just cut down on carbs and use good old fat (including lard would you believe). We only use home made ghee, coconut oil and olive oil for cooking. (and lard)
Try not to eat anything that has been "manufactured" or "processed" like margarine and even some of the cooking oils like grape-seed oil.
We have all been brainwashed by multinational companies to eat their "manufactured" crap rather than natural foods.
Brainwashed individuals throw up their hands in horror when I mention
we actually eat butter.
Don't get sucked in by the medical chemical industry into believing your cholesterol or blood-pressure is too high. Unless you are really unhealthy the drugs are worse than the "so called" illness.
Mot, you said "western mode of thinking" to describe someone, or some people. May be individuals matter the most, however? Can you really split the world into large slices through such general rubrics ? What if society is complex? May be a wish to, or your over indulgence in viewing life from a wealthy point of view encourages a single description, or designation of multiple people simultaneously? I can only guess as to why, or why not, but I hasten to add that lumping individuals into blocs very, very rarely produces an accurate, not to say practical, image of reality
Alister
I did not create the divisions. I merely commented on them.
In the current dominant western thought consumption creates production. In eastern thought, the reverse is true.
Of course the world is not black and white, and some in the west think in the latter way, and some in the east in the former.
There are many other ways to describe this difference of thought. But it does exist, and is polar in nature.
TF
@ Battleshipyamato
you said:
"While there are freegolders living in developing nations I humbly suggest that the vast majority of stackers in those places are not freegolders and with the current prices of gold will never be holders of it."
Watch this video. At about 9:33 they explain how Indian poor buy gold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xchc2ezcHXA
In India, they have groups of people say 13, that save about $5 a week surplus between the 13 of them. Then they take the savings and buy gold one gram at a time.
Hello Battleshipyamato aka Lex!
As for $5 silver, silver spent the greater part of the last 20, 30, 40 (and so on) year-periods when investment (savings) demand was low, under $5. Silver again hit the $8 range as recently as four years ago when investment demand plummeted. What is holding silver higher right now is investment (savings) demand alone, not industrial demand.
To understand how silver differs from gold in the Freegold revaluation you only have to understand that silver is largely a commodity today, while gold is largely a monetary reserve. The use of silver as a medium of exchange in any Eastern community does not argue for greater use as a global store of value in the future. A medium of exchange works at any relative value. Today's silver price is irrelevant to its future MoE use anywhere in the world. Betting your savings on a future medium of exchange makes no sense if the global store of value is gold.
I will share with you a recent email exchange I had with another silverbug who has finally understood Freegold, but who still hangs out with the silverbugs on their silverbug forums. But I must first give this disclaimer: This is not an argument that I think will convince you. It is only an email exchange I had with someone like you who was already convinced at the time of the email exchange. So I don't expect anything to come from it. I'm sure you can dismiss it easily. But I think that you might find it interesting, and I think that I might find your response to it interesting.
So here it is:
Hello ____
One thing that is a little ironic about silver is that silver was the "easy money" when gold was the "hard money". A brief study of the silver movements in the 1890s makes this clear. Part of the reason silver won't be money again is that we have a much easier easy money today, so silver's monetary role has been supplanted.
Mises explained the concept of primary and secondary media of exchange, and Freegold explains the splitting of these two roles, MoE and SoV into separate media. Focal point game theory explains how we end up with one medium in each role. There are only two roles, so there are only two focal point media. The Eurosystem balance sheet reveals what those two media are on Line 1 of the two sides of the balance sheet. It's quite simple.
So silver is just a hard asset, one of many, but not the monetary focal point. Another irony is that silver's greatest vulnerability today (versus other hard assets/commodities) is touted as one of its supreme strengths. People like to say, "well, at the very least my silver will rise with inflation and it certainly won't do worse than other things like copper or oil." But yes, in fact silver can do substantially worse because today the demand for silver is about 50% investment demand and 50% industrial demand. Silver is quite unique in this regard!! And that's its greatest vulnerability.
Cont…
2/2
You have gold, with maybe 99% investment/reserve use and 1% industrial use. You have silver with ~50/50. And then you have all the other commodities with far less investment use relative to their commercial uses. So if the investment demand for silver switches to gold, silver could be the sole big loser out of the whole bunch! This is what FOA saw, and it is what I see. Did you see this recent comment from me?
The silverbugs hate me because they think I'm anti-silver. That's just so silly. I do understand ALL of the arguments for silver. I was there once!! I used to follow David Morgan and Jason Hommel back in 2008.
No one has to pick sides. You don't have to believe me. But you are doing yourself a big disservice if you don't take the time and make the effort to at least understand the argument for how and why silver could be the very worst of the whole bunch in terms of preserving your wealth **through a system collapse**. That thought is simply inconceivable to the silverbugs, but only because they refuse to consider the argument in the absence of their dogma.
When you watch a fantasy movie you suspend your disbelief for the duration of the movie in order to enjoy it. We all do this. And that's what a silverbug needs to do to understand this argument. Blondie would say you need to drop your baggage—everything you think you already know about silver and money. And I'll add that you don't need to abandon your baggage permanently. You can set it down temporarily in order to see this argument clearly and then you can pick your baggage up again and continue onward. But the difference is that you will at least understand the most powerful counterargument. As FOA said, your ability to find your own way will forever be enhanced for having seen this path in a different light.
Sincerely,
FOFOA
Thank you very much for the video link M. I really appreciate the countervailing position taking. I will watch it but want to suggest that if it takes 13 people saving a for a week to buy 1 gram of gold, would it not be more prudent for each individual to have his own silver rather than a shared gold one ?
I know that in West Africa they use a form of collected savings where each participant contributes to the overall total and there is a revolving access by each individual to said resource. I think this would be a preferable way to purchase a gram of gold than the above mentioned "indian" model.
However I do appreciate your taking the time to point out that freegolders exists in denominations of 1 gram.
@battleshipyamato:
Regarding silver as a:
Medium of exchange: There is one thing called fiat currency that is more suitable than physical silver.
Call it a medium of exchange par excellence.
Store of value: There is one thing called (physical) gold that is more suitable than physical silver.
Call it a store of value par excellence.
Silver is very useful metal in industry, just like copper. But it has no business in being in either medium of exchange or store of value arena. Ie. MoE or SoV par excellence arena.
That should spare you some reading time. :-)
Thank you FOFOA,
I guess my continued posting was bound to draw attention to the sad pathetic silverbug willing to challenge the prevailing Freegold consensus.
I will take the time to "digest" it.
I want to repeat, because perhaps I didn't make myself clear earlier. I have gold too.
Also I don't hate you or anyone who bothers to take the time to try and persuasively argue that their position is the winning one. In fact I feel my coming here will either transform me to a pure gold bug or confirm that my silver play was the right move to make. Either way I won't be leaving the blog any time soon, unless you "ban" me. But I suppose being banned is worthy of a merit badge in itself is it not ? :)
I wanted to point out what I feel is an oversight in your argument. Is your position that because Silver ALSO has an industrial demand that it does not have a monetary demand as well ? 118 million ounces of silver were used for coins while AG demand for photography, jewelry and silverware have all gone the substitution route.
It can both can it not ? In fact it is both.
If you are just going to value it on its industrial use alone then the argument and following logic is on sounder footing. But if it is not simply valued at its industrial use but as money in itself I am afraid the gold alone argument doesn't hold much water.
Just because half of its use is industrial now does not mean it will be so tomorrow or next week or next year. In fact about 10% of gold is used for industrial purposes so in this regard it mimics that of AG. Industry will just substitute from AG to another metal that will meet the needs of their customers. In say 10 years who is to say that 90% of all silver mined is used for currency and it is in fact copper that is the industrial metal. Its not dogma as much as it is a natural transition from one thing to another.
Dismiss it if you like but it does not diminish it as a possible actuality.
Must it be a zero sum game with gold as the only flavor at the ice cream shop ? and if so why must it be so ?
I was always under the impression that if you don't like the rules we should change them. I fail to see the logic in throwing a legitimate value of exchange under the bus because gold does it "better". Or perhaps those with gold prefer to have it used as a medium of exchange because they are wed to the position. (as am I)
The highway has room for gasoline as well as diesel vehicles. It now also has room for Electric ones too. Why toss one of the viable options to the side road of history ? That doesn't sound like a good long term survival strategy to me. As I have already stated just because 50% of AG is used today for industrial purposes is in no way a guarantee that it will continue to be the case going forward. Indeed if silver DID hit a new high price I reckon we would see substitution happen and quickly as companies moved to ensure a reliable alternative at more affordable prices.
Further if in fact gold and not silver or any other divisible, measurable source of exchange is going to be end game than why would even value silver at anything other than 5 bucks ?
Anyway its getting late and I have more reading and watching to do.
I want to once again (ad nauseum) thank everyone who has bothered to post in response to senor lex. I am not the quickest study but I will get there eventually.
domo
lex
Senor Lex ^^
I am not certain FOFOA will respond again, he doesn't do so often. So, in lieu of that possibility, or mayhap just as an interim, I am willing to address your questions raised.
I do not think it is possible that someone as polite as you can be banned. We value reasoned argument here.
" Is your position that because Silver ALSO has an industrial demand that it does not have a monetary demand as well ?"
No, the position is that at present it has both industrial and investment demand, perhaps 50-50. Furthermore the position is that it will not have monetary demand in the future, so that part of it's demand that provides it value will fall away, leaving it only with industrial demand to support its value.
"Must it be a zero sum game with gold as the only flavor at the ice cream shop ? and if so why must it be so ?"
Yes. Salience. The argument is well made in the given material, but let me simply ask one question. Is silver a Veblen good?
"Or perhaps those with gold prefer to have it used as a medium of exchange because they are wed to the position."
We do not see gold as being used as medium of exchange, only store of value. Again, in the material offered the argument is made in detail. :)
"Indeed if silver DID hit a new high price I reckon we would see substitution happen and quickly as companies moved to ensure a reliable alternative at more affordable prices."
Quite correct. Very few understand money well enough to understand this. We however hold that this will not happen, so the scenario is not relevant.
I hope these few thoughts help.
TF
Lex
"would it not be more prudent for each individual to have his own silver rather than a shared gold one ?"
I had that wrong. Its $5 a week per person. They are pooling money to get a better deal on the gold. Once they have it, it is dispersed equally. They don't share and they don't save in silver. Indians would probably buy diamonds before they bought silver.
It takes time. I still have a 100 oz brick. It doesn't fit in my safety deposit box. My box costs $40 a year to rent. To fit the silver brick, I would need an $80 box.
I used to have a fair amount of silver mining stocks too. I got the timing right and sold half of all of them during the latest silver high. I sold the rest of them recently.
And I must admit that I bought some more gold mining stocks this week. In Canada we have tax free investment accounts so I can trade tax free. I feel safer in gold mining stocks then I do in physical silver. The gold mining stocks went along for the ride during the US debt downgrade last year but silver did not.
M
Tsk, tsk.
But it is your play money to lose I suppose.
While I am making good natured fun of you...I am reminded of this tweet by @freegolds
"in a couple of year people will be knocking themselves on the head for not buying gold.. perhaps they will use silverbars doing it"
I see you are well prepared. xD
TF
Lex,
I live in Thailand. I don't know about China but it's almost all gold here. I bought 2 baht(roughly two 1/2 ounces) of gold a few days ago in the form of jewellery. To my shock, two worse for wear looking ladies(think typical homeless person or beggar in these parts),one with a small child, march up to the counter of the gold shop and start looking at the one baht gold chains. They walked away with a purchase before I had purchased mine.
Also, the idea that when gold becomes too expensive people will start buying silver isn't happening here despite even a one baht purchase probably representing a year's saving to the avg thai. If you can't afford multiple pieces of jewellery here you buy a single piece. If you can't buy a 2 baht chain you buy a single baht chain, you can buy smaller chains. If you can't buy a chain, a bracelet, a smaller bracelet and so on.
And for the purpose of saving it doesn't matter how much you buy so long as it saves purchasing power.
@BattleshipYamato
I doubt you are going to convince anyone here of silver. I tried it before and failed so you might just save the energy on that. As you noted the freegold thinking is "from a western consumption level perspective". In fact I'll go one step further to point out it's a pro-debtor system since I've debated with people here quite a bit.
A pro-debtor system cannot tolerate a commodity-based money such as silver, period. No way. Such system needs soft FIAT so that issuers (bankers / politicians) could create it at will to finance their agendas while the average debtors could cheat out of the debt as it's depreciated with each new issuing. A commodity-based money is too hard and would get in the way of such mechanism so this freegold system cannot have it.
To their credit, people here do want a mechanism of saving in gold, which is, IMO, useless once the system forces people to transact in FIAT. Hopefully my post gives you a little help on the context.
MF,
You wrote:
Cosata's open forum is almost an afterthought. It does not convey our core reasoning as to why gold rather than silver.
costata
My recollection is a bit vague. I haven't read that in a very long time. I will take a look at it now to refresh my memory.
...
I notice there is a few paragraphs towards the end that is relevant.
I mean no disrespect, but I will stick by my previous statement.
Only reading that would not present all relevant arguments.
(That was only a quick skim though, you will of course correct me if I am wrong.)
TF
costata
I feel I should clarify further, as it is clear that you might easily have understood that to be a slight.
That was neither my meaning nor intent.
Your post is a excellent, and as far as I am aware definitive post as regards the corner on the flow of silver.
Yet the arguments against silver is about more than manipulation, it is about fundamentals.
In that regard you did not rewrite all the arguments, and it would not have fit the context of your post anyways (I think).
I hope this clears the air.
TF
Ps. I am posting way to much. I will have to scale back over coming days to achieve balance.
It is great to know that a number of people here have come across the paleo or at least low carb philosophy. That does go with the critically analyzing stuff mentality.
I have moved on from the Low carb or low fat thinking. Now I have moved to a point where macronutrients do not make that much of a difference, as micronutrients and toxins.
I am sort of following the philosophy of Perfect Health Diet. Paul Jaminet says that the average minimum carb + protein requirement is 150gms; more for active life. Rest of the calories should come from fat. Preferably the ratio between carb+protein and fat should be around 1:2. If you are trying to lose weight and are sedentary, you can be consuming lower energy than this ratio would allow with the minimum 150gm carb + protein.
He gives very convincing arguments about the requirements based on 4 observations one of which is mother's milk.
The book is a very good read, with more than 400 citations.
Paul is actually an Astrophysicist, who made his money as an entrepreneur from the internet boom era. He is married to a microbiologist. They got into health for curing their own health problems, which they have largely successfully fixed. He runs a very good blog, and responds to questions very promptly. The books second edition is in the process of being released.
http://perfecthealthdiet.com/2012/12/getting-ready-for-the-book-launch/
Lord Sidcup:
It is probably a useless endeavor to try and keep in nutritional ketosis (whatever that means :-)). If our system is fine, then the body is making both ketones and using glucose at the same time. Its not an either or situation. When you are peeing ketones, it means that your body is not able to absorb ketones. This happens for the first few months when you move to a high fat diet. But that honeymoon period does not last forever.
Steerpike:
I know about the Optimal diet. The interesting part of this diet it that the Dr recommends not staying in the Ketosis for very long. Ketosis is a stress on the body, which is good for short period of times, via hormesis, but isn't very healthy on the long term.
Inuits/Eskimos have been known to not live very long. And I am not talking about average ages.
Its not true that Carbs cause cancer and heart disease. Look at Kitavans or any number of polynasians, who have been living for ages on a high carb, high saturated fat very low protein diet. They haven't had any incidence of cancer. Only when they adopted sugar and white flour did they get the problems.
Dr. Stephan Guyenet's blog Whole Health Source is the best resource on these.
http://wholehealthsource.blogspot.in/
I have an article on why wheat might be a problem in the present age. It might be interesting to some people. It is my most popular post till date, not that I have made many posts.
http://mostlyvegpaleo.blogspot.in/2012/08/what-is-deal-with-wheat.html
I hope I am not posting too many messages on health. That topic is very close to my heart, and some people here are looking interested.
@duggo
I have been eating exclusively ghee and unrefined mustard oil, with rare coconut and olive oil since 4 years, except for sometimes when I have to eat outside. The refined oils are really really bad. I would ditch mustard oil, but it is really critical to our food. It just wouldn't taste the same :-).
@Lex
I think Rui's post above puts the odds of you being banned in perspective. :)
@Rui
I wouldn't call it pro-debtor, I'd call it pro-reality, or pro-balance. Wishing away the debtor camp has still not had any noticeable effect, despite your and mine and likely many other's perseverance in that regard.
Peace
MF
Lord Sidcup if you want to discuss more send me mail at anandsr21 (gmail).
As regards the health discussion...I am amused. :)
Personally I eat whatever I like, and do enjoy my poisons. I will leave it to others to thrash out and let us know who wins the argument..then I can consider if I feel like adapting my diet from the present free-for-all. :D
Besides, who wants to die healthy.
My 2 carrots.
TF
A follow up to Fofoa's beautiful 50% SOV, 50% industrial split
between demand sources for silver, and the consequences if
one source (SOV) should disappear: (a sort of analog)
Consider that a test is to be given, the reward for which shall
be some prize. The test takers are a cross section of society,
a few brilliant, many pretty smart, a lot of average, a bunch
a bit slow, and a few really dumb. The bell curve. If you pass
the test, you are among the potential winners to be chosen at
random. I use 5,15,60,15,5 distribution. You can choose any
other you think appropriate.
The test can be "hard", of "average" hardness, or "easy".
Consider what each group WANTS the test to be like.
The brilliant will want a hard test, as it favors them.
The pretty smart will want the hard test as well, as it
still favors them over the largest remaining population.
The largest group, the average, will want the "easy" test,
NOT the "average" test. It puts them on an EQUAL footing
with those above, because SOME average persons will fail
the average test, and a better footing than the groups
below them, as SOME percentage of them will fail even the
easy test, while hardly any average persons will fail it.
Finally, the 2 lowest strata of the bell curve will ALSO
want the easy test, as it is their ONLY chance.
What is the consequence of this analysis, if it holds? There
is simply NO constituency for the test of "average" hardness.
FWIW. Cheers.
Actually, Rui, I, for one, don't really disagree with you quite as much as you believe.
Where we do disagree, I think, is that you believe all transactions should be cleared in gold, whereas I believe only imbalances should be periodically settled via gold purchases. You also appear to believe the world can and should trade without credit, which again I (and history is on my side) fundamentally disagree with.
But as I said, if we looked at what you really think and what I really think, we would realise that in the bigger scheme of things we are at least in the same chapter, if not quite on the same page, in the book of reality.
When we look at the world outside of the precious metals blogosphere (i.e.: at what the other 99% of humanity thinks), suddenly we're the whackos — but you're slightly more whacko than me.
All -
Mind sharing your recommended Au, USD, Land, etc. asset breakdown?
e.g. 50% Au, 25% Land, 15% USD, 10% Silver
Thanks in advance
Joe (or should that be mighty pennis?)
The answers will differ depending on level of relative wealth.
I don't want any fiat as store of value, I can't afford land, nor any Picasso's, silver is not as good as gold...so that leaves me with 100% gold. It's the only thing that puts me on even footing with giants. Well, and some lead. So make that 95% Au, 5% Pb-Cu-N-C-O-H in the right proportions. ;)
Mileage will vary.
TF
Ps. Excuse my silly mood. No sleep.
@ MF
"But it is your play money to lose I suppose"
Its a little much to lose man. I made allot of money on gold stocks in 2009/10 but now Im sitting on about 40% unrealized losses. All in all, Im even on them. I could sell now and relinquish all my profits of 2009/10 or I could wait and sell as they get closer to what I paid. Im going to wait. The market caps of some of these companies are just sick. Gold in the ground is worth less then silver these days.
100% gold is the way to go. That's what the plan is.
Good interview. I was looking forward to it.
M
I wish you the best of luck. I didn't know you had gotten ruffled by the paper game too. And thanks. :)
TF
MF yes I used the term FOFOA as a direct response but perhaps also as a general indication of the greater community here ready and willing to take down a humble merchant of the filthy AG :) Again my thanks for posting and suggesting that more reading be done.
The CURRENT demand for silver is 50-50 but that in no way indicates that will be the future proportion so to assume it won't change strikes me as somewhat rash. I would think that the prudent investor would have some AG if for no other reason than metal diversification. Then again to each his or her own I suppose. I know I sound like a broken record but 2 billion african consumers by 2050 which is to say nothing of India or China means the game is far from over when it comes to precious metal as a vehicle for saving buying power. I humbly suggest as an Afrikaner that you take a closer look at how things are likely to play out in your homeland as well as part North of your residence.
M once again your post was most illuminating, while I reside in East Asia my knowledge of the subcontinent and its variety of flavors is without context and thus quite daunting. I remain woefully ignorant of how things work "over there". Something I hope to rectify before I die.
I am wondering if perhaps it is the relative lack of safety in North America and South Asia that drives its consumers to seek wealth that is easy to secure on ones body and in cases of emergency portable.
This is not the case in Japan. I have plenty of space to store any and all metals, including copper. Yes I also save copper ! It comes in change at the store here and I see little reason to spend it when another less valuable coin may be substituted when making a purchase. So storage boxes are NOT an issue for me and therefore not factored into my purchasing decisions. I know I have a few 100oz Perth Mint Bars and they are pretty sweet. I use them as weights while I ride my exercise bike. They sit openly in the Tatami room and have been there for years. Perhaps I tempt fate too much ?
PIIG I was just in Thailand earlier this year and go as often as I can which is about once a year. I rolled through silver exchange street in Chiang Mai and saw a rather interesting collection of shops with an assortment of what was mostly AG Euro coins, French ones in particular. I didn't buy any but would have if any had stood out.
However I was very much struck with the Vietnamese and their love of gold as opposed to the Thais. I am not saying that Thai's hate gold, obviously your post clearly indicates their love of the stuff. Interesting and thanks for sharing.
Finally Rui I was hoping someone would step forward and tell me to save my breath or in this case fingers... If silver breaks out of its head and shoulder position and follows the previous 4 decades of silver price action we will see a nice boost in the fiat price for it and quite possibly yet another dip in the GSR.
Maybe at that time I can gloat a bit by posting my improved gold holdings from the exchange of my lowly silver.
lex
Hi Lex
If anecdotes are of value to you, the locals love their gold, and silver isn't even in their vocabulary figuratively speaking.
This is a common theme in Africa.
TF
@ Rui
"To their credit, people here do want a mechanism of saving in gold, which is, IMO, useless once the system forces people to transact in FIAT. Hopefully my post gives you a little help on the context. "
Without any savings behind the FIAT, there is nothing to gain/steal/manipulate by printing extra units of currency. That is why rising prices from inflation show up so fast in banana republics.
Being a a hard money guy, you should know that FIAT has no intrinsic value in itself. Your comments suggest that you don't actually understand that.
Our is very diverse in cultural groups. The Africans love gold, it is a symbol of status for them. They like jewelry they can put on display.
The Indians share their affinity with their distant cousins for gold.
The Cape Malay also like gold as display of wealth, using it predominantly in teeth fillings or chains.
The eastern people who have moved here, mostly Chinese, also love their gold.
The exception being of course of most Afrikaner's, as they are essentially completely sold on stocks, housing and perhaps land as stores of wealth.
TF
Why is present day wheat a perfect chronic poison?
Edwardo
There was spyware on that link. Perhaps some warning next time. :/
Also, the wiki talk page describes this guy's research as unsupported, which ofc does not make it untrue, but it bears closer investigation.
TF
steerpike: Talking about yourself in the third-person is a fine way to introduce yourself. Indenture liked it.
battleship: "Just because she saw an opportunity to take silver "down" or "long" does not mean that situation will once again come into play. To ignore it means you leave profits unrealized." Ah, I remember when I placed more importance on the word 'profits' than on 'store of value'. Those were the dollar chasing days.
dug: When someone says they have coconut oil, and in large quantities, they have done their homework.
MF: Slow down? Please don't slow down on the posts.
Rui: Why is it every time you talk about Freegold and the evil Fiat you never associate the relationship between gold and fiat in the new system ? Why is it that you talk about Fiat, the stuff that can be printed at will, and never describe it's purchasing power associated with gold? Why is it you talk about Fiat and the ability to print without ever mentioning that the Fiat is given its' value by the gold that it can be exchanged for? Why do you talk about Fiat and Gold as if they had no direct correlation to each other?
I think someone once said, 'Gold prices Fiat'. I see the relationship. The fiat in a zone is worth the gold it can be exchanged for. Throw in the 'Time' variable and anyone who at anytime wants to hold fiat can do so knowing that it will depreciate (oh no) but they can also at any time convert their savings into gold. Fiat is for sending, Gold is for saving.
@steerpike
The Fool seconds Indenture. He liked it. Welcome. :P
@Indenture
Coconut oil. Link me please?. I have left off on storing oils due to spoilage issue. I am aiming at buying some when the shit hits the fan. I know, crazy right. Regular sunflower oil is suppose to last about a year.
Also. Haven't I blabbered enough for one thread? :P
TF
Just say no to wheat!
"We know we have been tubby. Let's see if there's any bacon!" -Another Freefatter
Let's clear something up, just HOW EASY is it for folks here to trade, buy, or sell PMs *locally*?
I have 1 shop I know of and he's kind of a rip off compared to online shops. I guess I *could* sell quickly if I stop holding cash on the sidelines, but who knows with taxes, further INCREASES in taxes, and monitoring in general of all transactions.
I know we all SAY and perhaps believe this stuff is money, but trying to get FIAT quickly and get an ok price seems actually challenging in more rural areas.
Joe
It is actually quite hard to do here without getting ripped off. I envy the east in that regard.
On rural areas it becomes ever more difficult.
However. I don't think we can agree we see gold as money. We do not. We see it as a store of value.
And. As our kind host has remarked, if you need to sell gold during a SHTF scenario, you have planned poorly.
Gold is intended for the storage of excess wealth beyond your immediate needs. Not speculation, saving.
Hope my ramblings help.
TF
oh and the coconut oil comment wasn't about from a nutritional standpoint but from a homesteader shelf life viewpoint.
MF -
Glad you agree that local buying/selling/trading of Au, Ag, etc. can be a ripoff and is less than desireable.
So, your stash which you told me was 100% Au (or 95% Au 5% lead) does NOT include what I now assume is a 6-12 month storage of FIAT for immediate needs/emergencies?
@indenture
Please allow me to clarify. I would appreciate links as to why coconut oil. If the ideas has merit I will consider sourcing(and your likely excellent suggestion for such).
@Joe
After long and hard research I acquired some food with long shelf life as preparation. What use have I for fiat if I can buy food now?
I also stocked up on medical supplies, though there are still some items outstanding on my list here which I will likely have to source from the black market due to legalities...such as antibiotics.
Other than that, I am resourceful and will meet what challenges come my way with an open mind and a steady hand.
Food, medicine, weapons, gold and adaptability. That is my shortlist.
TF
MF: I remember the 'prep for the end of currency' days here at the Homestead. Thankfully I found FOFOA as I was building my larder because by the time I finished storing I had reached the proper understanding. Every item at the Homestead is here for a reason and the reason I have coconut oil is because it has the best shelf life of any oil. I can't find my research because I would focus on one item, google my brains out, find the answer, buy the item and move on. I do now remember that it is because the saturated fat in coconut oil makes it stable and therefore does not go rancid. It's on the shelf downstairs and will probably be opened when I have some sort of party in 15 years because by then it will be time to eat all the freeze dried food before everything goes bad.
@Indenture
I see. Excellent answer.
Let me google that for you
xD
"In say 10 years who is to say that 90% of all silver mined is used for currency"
I'm sure i'm way late but seriously? why go through all that effort for a MoE when there's something simpler and cheaper in paper fiat??
I am always interested in anything Frank Veneroso has to say,
and have just now finished listening to a 3 part presentation
on the topics of the Euro, Japan, China, gold (and silver). I highly
recommend it, despite what I think is one small flaw. BTW, He
sees a coming hyperinflation in Japan, and high inflation coming
to China.
"Financial Sense: Kule roundtable discussion with Frank
Veneroso". (there is a link at the left hand sidebar at Jesse's
Cafe Americain. (about 2 hrs total, for the 3 segments)
Motley,
I'm on a Mac, which may not have anything to do with the spyware issue. How do I detect spyware in advance? It would seem that the good doctor's statements about the effect of present day wheat with regard to appetite stimulation may be unsupported-is the wiki board authoritative on this point?-but the fact that wheat strains are demonstrably different via frankenfood tech, isn't.
Joe,
It hasn't gotten easier in my neck of the woods. The major store front retailer in this area closed his shop last year, and the proprietor's nephew took over his business but on a more modest scale. I have developed some contacts over the years, one of which has been excellent at providing a market on short order, but, then, I don't live in the sticks.
MF: God I love that link! I'll carry that giggle all day! I bought this http://www.simplycoconut.com/food_products.htm#Aloha%20Nu%20Oil Aloha Nu Extra Virgin Coconut Oil Gallon. I should have bought something small also because some popcorn would be nice with lunch. Thanks for making me go down to the 'store room' and look around for ya. I saw some things that I need to replace so bonus.
Edwardo
For dubious sites you can have them checked out by anti-virus makers(on their websites). My virus-guard immediately red-flagged the site upon opening the link.
Wikipedia has stringent standards of submission. Since no human studies where carried out(they actually require a specific amount), his claims cannot be carried on the main page.
The also note he has pecuniary interest, as this unsupported claim is his only source of income.
Now, we can go all conspiracy theory, and say it's a ploy by corporations to get people fattened up and addicted to their food (whilst perhaps drugged by opiate effects xD), and that for this reason research would be suppressed, but I prefer not going there.
I only cautioned further examination(and honestly by people more qualified than me...there seem to be many on this board) before taking his statements as fact.
TF
Indenture
A nice bit of fun yes. Especially when conversing with people on the internet who ask stupid questions that can easily be answered by typing a query into google...does that remind you of anyone? :P
(I will note in my defence that normally good resources are hard to find and I hoped that you had some handy so I did not have to weed out google results one by one, haha)
Glad it helped you take stock. :P
TF
Webster gets interesting from reference number 7 and the old French origins below it. Cheers!
tra·di·tion
[truh-dish-uh n]
noun
1.
the handing down of statements, beliefs, legends, customs, information, etc., from generation to generation, especially by word of mouth or by practice: a story that has come down to us by popular tradition.
2.
something that is handed down: the traditions of the Eskimos.
3.
a long-established or inherited way of thinking or acting: The rebellious students wanted to break with tradition.
4.
a continuing pattern of culture beliefs or practices.
5.
a customary or characteristic method or manner: The winner took a victory lap in the usual track tradition.
6.
Theology .
a.
(among Jews) body of laws and doctrines, or any one of them, held to have been received from Moses and originally handed down orally from generation to generation.
b.
(among Christians) a body of teachings, or any one of them, held to have been delivered by Christ and His apostles but not originally committed to writing.
c.
(among Muslims) a hadith.
7.
Law. an act of handing over something to another, especially in a formal legal manner; delivery; transfer.
Origin:
1350–1400; Middle English tradicion < Old French < Latin trāditiōn- (stem of trāditiō ) a handing over or down, transfer, equivalent to trādit ( us ), past participle of trādere to give over, impart, surrender, betray ( trā-, variant of trāns- trans- + -ditus, combining form of datus given; see date1 ) + -iōn- -ion
;0)
@ Joe
"Let's clear something up, just HOW EASY is it for folks here to trade, buy, or sell PMs *locally*?"
The Bank of NovaScotia is a bullion bank here in Canada. Every capital city branch sells physical right from 1/4 oz to 10 oz bars. Maybe even London good delivery bars. Prices are good too and the more you buy the better your exchange rate and the lower your commission. The mark up isn't even one percent depending on what you buy. But Scotia Moccata online is way more expensive.
I don't know why more ppl don't just buy from bullion banks rather then these random coil dealer outfits.
I don't take Dr. Davis' conclusions as fact, Motley. I posted the admittedly provocative sentence containing the link up as something containing information worth consideration. Upon review, Doctor Davis' case appears vulnerable, not so much due to the absence of his own research, but because of the distortion of already existing studies that do not buttress his contention regarding the ill effects of gluten on the human metabolism.
Just say yes to bacon butter and whole eggs ;)
I developed an opinion a long time ago that probably the best diet to follow is one that represents an individuals ancestral diet. It makes sense to me that we are hardwired to process these foods.
Unsurprisingly no persons ancestral diet includes high fructose corn syrup.
Wendy,
I think your dietary prescription makes sense, but I question your precise recommendations since our ancestors would not likely have benefited from the output of domesticated creatures like chickens.
M -
I know of ZERO banks in the United States that even *MENTION* bullion yet alone sell it!
Back me up, 'Muricans...
Excellent conversation.
We avoid white sugar, canola oil, corn and corn syrup of any kind, and almost all the "fake" shit and additives we consciously can, plus a bunch of other stuff. No GMO, even if it's questionable.
As a matter of principle, we limit our intake of chicken and pork - because I don't support industries that misuse antibiotics to increase profit margins. I'm not cool with some asshole looking to increase growth rates at the expense of creating funky, AB resistant bacteria that will probably kill our children - or your children, 'cause I have no spawn. This is probably a good thing...
I'm also not cool with our modern farming methods when it comes to high-density crowding, etc, which is against nature's way. Yet another way to breed nasty pathogens
You better watch out, she's gonna make you ill
Vote with your (silver) fork.
Wild Sockeye salmon, free-range lean steak, virgin avocado oil, honey, hemp hearts, bong hits? red wine, butter, yogurt, oats...
Faded Colors
Get Away From It All
...Because no day is complete without a trip to the Fuzz/Garage.
Indenture:
Its not clear cut that coconut oil is the most stable oil, at least the extra virgin one is not.
Ghee on the other hand is supposed to get better with age. Ayurveda, Indian system of medicine, prescribes 100year old ghee for some specific ailments. Remember that 100years old is in a hot and at times humid country like India.
I have written one article on reconciling what Ayurveda says about ghee, and what evidence we get from Science. Ofcourse I understand that you might think I am overstating the case.
http://mostlyvegpaleo.blogspot.in/2012/09/ghee-food-of-gods_25.html
@/SV/
I agree with you 100%. I also eat mutton, which is the most easily available not too badly produced meat in India. I avoid chicken, its produced in very bad conditions.
@Wendy
You have the right idea. Ancestral Wisdom is what we need. Maybe you want to read Weston A Price Foundation. They prescribe a diet which is derived from what older people did in different parts of the world. Initial Research was done by Weston A Price a dentist in 1930s. The foundation continues it.
You might want to read their diet book.
http://www.amazon.com/Nourishing-Traditions-Challenges-Politically-Dictocrats/dp/0967089735/ref=la_B000APH4JA_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1354999602&sr=1-1
@MF
Indians also love their gold. In India, Silver does not have a standing compared to gold. Silver is a cheap metal, useful only for utensils, some ornaments (that are not meant to be flaunted), and idols for Gods.
Nobody talks about silver as they talk about gold.
I agree Edwardo, neither am I a fan of chicken or pork, I don't condone the farming practices, but I do have access local beef and fowl and eggs that are organically and ethically grown. My biggest challenge is that I'm a shitty cook, and have no interest in it, so I live with what's works.
Thanks for the references Anand.
MF et al
Here is excerpt from the Robb Wolf Paleo-Solution podcast which covers coconut oil and ketosis in the event of apocalypse, ;
http://robbwolf.com/wp//wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Episode-106.pdf
Q; … What should the Paleo survivor be stockpiling in his or her closet?
A; … If you got right down to it, some coconut oil because you've got a massive amount of calories there. It's inert. It won't go bad. You won't get weevils in it, etc., etc. A bunch of white rice which can't get weevils can go bad. Beans, if you do the beans and rice thing theoretically, you've kind of got a complete protein, but you've got to cook them and you've got to cook them reasonably well or else you're going to potentially have some GI problems with it and that starts begging the question are you going to have fuel for a fire.
So in my mind, it would probably be the 50-gallon drum of coconut oil, maybe 5, 6, 10 bags of white rice that you try to hermetically seal to keep weevils out of them, and then I'll probably be supplementing my protein and omega-3/omega-6 intake because you're going to be essential fat deficient and protein deficient with that stuff. So you're going to have to supplement that with local neighborhood animals, zombies or whatever it is that you get your hands on.
But in a legit kind of survival situation, that's kind of my thought is
something along that line and maybe some sort of a stockpiled freeze-dried meat ...
...
the Vilhjalmur Stefansson experiment where the guy lived with the Inuit for a number of years and basically ate an all-meat diet, protein and fat. You get a little bit of carbs out of the glycogen and you also get some vitamins and minerals and all that out of that stuff. But there is no doubt that a ketogenic diet decreases your need for vitamin and mineral cofactors as compared to say eating crackers.
…
A ketogenic diet, maybe it's not 100% appropriate for everybody all the time, but it's really interesting that it minimizes your need for nutrients, B vitamins, vitamin C, etc.
So the first book I ever recommend at FOFOA isn't some economic tomb or a breakdown of different economic theories but instead is Folks, This Ain't Normal: A Farmer's Advice for Happier Hens, Healthier People, and a Better World.
Everyone of you will love it.
Polyface Farms is a family owned, multi-generational, pasture-based, beyond organic, local-market farm and informational outreach in Virginia’s Shenandoah Valley. I have heard Joel speak and his farming lifestyle is an envy.
I cruised over to Jesse's American Cafe and found the quote by AEP:
This is another reason I’m against the gold standard, I think it is good to have free gold that is not controlled by any government, and instead of trying to use it as a foundation for currency which they will try to manipulate. It is better to have it as free, as a store of value and it holds public currencies to account –
free gold indeed.....and it holds public currencies to account indeed...has he been a closet Freegolder all along or a convert?
here is the page:
http://goldswitzerland.com/europe-usa-will-not-allow-deflation-to-take-root/
Looking for Aristotle's explanation on the need for fiat. It has occurred to me just how important the article was for my understanding of freegold. So many come here and observe incorrectly that we 'advocate for fiat'. Some spew hatred as they believe that we shill for the bankers (evil, Jewish, Satanistic and whatever) They fail to understand that for gold to function as a wealth asset, without government suppression of its value that fiat must exist. I now believe that and I'm pretty sure that was the piece that cracked things open for me. Where did I put it? It is not with my cognac.
Recent silverbug activity got me thinking again. This isn't for silverbugs per-se, but they might find it useful...
Moneyness Matrix
Also this:
Money vs. Wealth
Cheers,
Jess.
Börjesson and Sidcup,
My mistake when talking about PIIGs, I should have left out Ireland and Italy, maybe even Portugal.
Mediterranean cuisine (let's leave the diet word out) is to me = Spanish cuisine (and a bit of the greek), with no doubt one of the top 5 in the world. And of course I can't prove this.
MF,
No offense taken. It was late and I was "tired and emotional".
Cheers
battleshipyamato,
In order to have even a rudimentary monetary system we need to have some unit of account. A token with a number on it in which to calculate prices. Hugo Salinas Price has written extensively about using silver as money. He's the most lucid advocate for silver that I have come across. I suggest you study his writings. Perhaps also Antal Fekete who is at least consistent. Most of the other silver advocates are unable to sustain a logical argument.
The only way the HPS system works is if the coins have no face value and there are no bank deposits (bank credit money). The value (price) of each coin weight needs to float freely in order to act as a store of value. So we would still need a currency in which to calculate the current market value (price) of the silver coin system that HSP proposes.
A government could create this currency as the MMT school proposes or we could continue the present dual fiat currency system where a CB issues currency and the banking system creates money by lending it into existence.
The only alternative would be to change the whole monetary system to operate on weight as opposed to a numerical face value. That would be possible if we stored the metal money in a digital payment system. But then we are back at square one - two "monies".
Freegold-RPG is a pragmatic tweak to the existing system. That's why it can succeed. The alternatives (even if they are better) are simply too hard to implement. The silver bugs often cite history to support their claims that silver is money. Many things have been used as money over the years.
But there is an inescapable fact that cannot be ignored. Over the course of history less things have been used as money - not more things. The observable process has been one of elimination not addition.
In this competitive, evolutionary process to become the sole monetary store of value gold won and silver lost. The ECB and other central banks have endorsed this victory by selecting gold as the primary asset reserve and fiat currencies (note the plural) as their secondary store of value. They sold off their silver.
Silver is an industrial commodity and it only has legitimacy as "money" in the minds of silver bugs. It's no more a monetary asset than tulips were. And it will most likely suffer the same fate as tulips. A parabolic blow-off top driven by speculators before silver holders experience "a religious experience" (Jim Sinclair's phrase).
Fiat currency with a numerical face value won out as the circulating medium of exchange and unit of account over commodity money and a weight-based system. The most recent challenger for the role of dominant fiat currency was the US dollar which supplanted the British Pound sterling.
It appears that currency issuers finally recognize that becoming the reserve currency is a poisoned chalice due to Triffin's Dilemma. That's why the Swiss declined the market's offer to make the Franc its safe haven reserve currency. When the US dollar is no longer the global reserve currency nothing will take its place in the role defined at Bretton Woods after WW2.
@Costata
You're silver post was a masterpiece, and I hope you realise that you've been a great teacher here, and very well appreciated.
@ silver enthusiasts
I hope it is apparent that we ALL have some freaking silver (I've always wanted a 100 oz brick because it's cool but lets face it down right stupid).
It's not like we woke up one day a freegolders, and never considered any other possibility. PS would anyone like to buy some silver?
Who was the french silver bug who used to post here with his stash of 100 oZ bars? I wondered if he had a fork lift license, and I miss that guy he was nice.
Here is a video posted by Costata, our former Aussie leader looking into the black hole.... notice he mentions "you'll see this in the price of gold, the real risk of a US default (IMHO his words for money printing, for ALL of the debt)"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkux40HUTtc
\incoherent rant
As for my China experience, I have a large extended family there. I'm not some hot shot like Phat expat :-) . But I have been in China when I was a silver bug, and asked people on the street, who work harder for their (really their kids) standard of living than we can imagine " is silver money for you", " mandarin for bank is silver market, do you have silver". Guess what the answer is: "No, I have no silver". But everyone has gold because of marriage tradition, and there is no social welfare in old age - they really have to save, something we have forgotten in the west. Their media is progold and anti-silver IMVHO.
Alll of our futures are tied to the same fiat currency that must be destroyed with money printing....
/end incoherent rant
Hope I've helped or at least entertained someone :-)
@Motley
Quote:"I wouldn't call it pro-debtor, I'd call it pro-reality, or pro-balance."
The reality is debtors (bank & govt) are controlling the FIAT supply in freegold. Debtors by their very nature are fiscally irresponsible, otherwise they would not be stuck in debt. We don't expect responsible management from irresponsible people, which is why we doubt about your system.
@DP
Quote:"You also appear to believe the world can and should trade without credit, which again I (and history is on my side) fundamentally disagree with."
I'm just saying commodity-based money has less subjective factors behind it so it's more trustworthy. I don't mind several forms of money including credit in competition. It's ultimately producers that decide what to buy their products. If they prefer credit to gold / silver for some reason then fine let them.
It's when govt/bank controlling the FIAT that they want monopoly so that only their FIAT is in use, and we know why they do it.
@M
Quote:"Without any savings behind the FIAT, there is nothing to gain/steal/manipulate by printing extra units of currency."
Imagine I am a banker and print a load of FIAT to buy stuff off the market. By the time you go shopping there's less stuff while more FIAT is chasing them so what happens to the price? It goes up. Your FIAT paycheck ends up buying less due to my printing. There I steal from you no matter what you save in.
If there's nothing to steal from FIAT bank/govt would have long switched away from FIAT to a new scam, trust me.
Thanks BH.
The approval of these two deals by the Canadian government has some interesting implications.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-opens-a-pipeline-to-china-2012-12-07?link=MW_home_latest_news
Wendy are you taking Mandarin lessons?
I was talking to a friend the other day who once worked for Sino-gold (now nationallised I guess). And he reckons the Chinese had "gold armies" scouring the countryside as soon as Moa passed on.... so I think the Chinese get gold.
PS Henry Kissingers "On China" is a good read too
Congratulations on a brilliantly succint post on silver/money, costata. Now pardon my english language pedantry-my late mother's memory is making me do it- but where word usage is concerned, it's not "less things have been used as money", but, rather, fewer things that have been used as money.
Also, I know it's part of the required reading list that has already been offered up to battleshipyamato, but, in case it hasn't yet been categorically specified, in order for an item to function as money, it needs to be, first and foremost, useless. The oft (to the point of making one want to scream) leveled criticism of the idea of gold functioning as a monetary asset is it's obvious lack of utility, best captured in the following statement, "Gold is useless." Yes, ye know nothing detractors, for the vast majority of purposes, it is. Silver, however, is not useless. We can dispute just how useful it may be in future, but there is no debating that were it to become, by some strange quirk of circumstance, absolutely unavailable come Monday, that such a condition would pose a considerable problem for the global economy. Gold, (sans the freegold scenario) not so much, and that's engaging in understatement.
In the meantime, I would argue that, where confiscation is concerned, the odds favor silver becoming a candidate for confiscation before gold for the simple reason that should silver's price action ever appear to behave in a fashion that its most fanatical followers dream of, governments, well understanding silver's economic utility, would act to nip such behavior in the bud faster than you can say silver to da moon.
byiamBYoung
"We know we have been tubby. Let's see if there's any bacon!" -Another Freefatter
Pure gold.
Lex,
More suggested reading
Rui,
Debtors by their very nature are fiscally irresponsible, otherwise they would not be stuck in debt.
Statements like this is why I cannot take you seriously. You seem to live in deflation la-la-land, as AD might have said.
In deflation la-la-land, prices of goods go down while everyone keeps their jobs and their current salaries, making everyone have greater purchasing power.
In deflation la-la-land, someone who saved green pieces of paper by foregoing X amount of real goods and services in the past, is now entitled to XXX of your real goods and services today.
In deflation la-la-land, farmers harvest first and plant second, since only irresponsible farmers go into debt to grow a crop.
Imagine I am a banker and print a load of FIAT to buy stuff off the market. By the time you go shopping there's less stuff while more FIAT is chasing them so what happens to the price? It goes up. Your FIAT paycheck ends up buying less due to my printing. There I steal from you no matter what you save in.
Let's see ... 2% inflation per year is about 0.04% inflation per week. Good heavens! Can you imagine the gall of those EVIL BANKERS, stealing 0.04% from your paycheck, before you even get to convert it into a more suitable savings medium!
A further small problem with your statement: bankers don't 'print up money to buy stuff in the marketplace'. They make loans, which the public can use to buy stuff. The bankers only end up with the interest, which finances their ongoing operations.
Costata,
Thanks for sharing your views on silver, I'm in complete agreement with you. I would second BH and extend my respect to you for your efforts here... in all areas.
Funny thing, the pseudowife and me(Marley and me) were just talking the other day about this Rosetta Stone language thingy. We thought Mandarin would be pretty cool to learn, though I would prefer Old Norse(kinda tough to pull off) or maybe Icelandic.
The oil to China deal draws different opinions when I speak to people about it. I say pump the living shit out of it and sell it to the highest bidder while it still has "value", but I guess I have a slightly different vision of the future than some.
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the potential implications of this latest approval, if you have a bit of spare time.
It's statements like this that make me doubt the sanity of idiots like Rui that we see here from time to time:
Debtors by their very nature are fiscally irresponsible
I'm trying to picture a supply chain with no debtors in it. I guess we should just shut down the "fiscally irresponsible" retailers, manufacturers, farmers and so on.
Then he flips and credit is somehow OK if it's subject to his terms and conditions.
I don't mind several forms of money including credit in competition.
I'm just saying commodity-based money has less subjective factors behind it so it's more trustworthy.
Objective value? Good luck with that. What's the "inherent value" of money? Rui display your deep knowledge of value theory. Give us a lecture on valorization, marginal utility and so on. Impress us with the depth of your scholarship.
Then the moron seeks to explain the inflation tax to 'M' as if he's talking to a pre-schooler:
If there's nothing to steal from FIAT bank/govt would have long switched away from FIAT to a new scam, trust me.
"Trust me" he says. Based on what? Are you claiming to be an idiot savant? If so, let's see a demonstration of the subject area in which you are a savant. In the past two years all we have had on display from you is the idiot.
/rant (almost) over
I'm going back to my cave now. I have to do the wage summaries so we can pay the staff. Then they can pay their bills. Then we can bill the clients. Golly gee, I just realized these are all credit based transactions.
FOFOA,
I have had an "Ah ha" moment. Money is Credit. Even if we paid everyone in a silver or gold currency it wouldn't change the nature of the transactions. There would still be a time lag in the transfer of purchasing power. You should do a post on this topic as a matter of urgency.
/sarc off
/rant over
Any of you happen to catch the latest gold show, Jungle Gold? They're in Ghana placer mining, so far, on some pretty shitty ground in a really shitty environment. Anyway, I found it quite interesting how heavy the Chinese are working in the area... and the show only just touches on their presence there. I would imagine they're diggin' in Africa and many other places rather hard, and that unless you look for it, you'd hardly know...
Edwardo,
Noted. Thanks.
/Sleeping Village/
Thanks, I'll get back to you later on that. I do have to attend to some paperwork and we have some Christmas stuff to do.
Rui,
FWIW, we've been walking this sketchy part of the trail with you for a few years now. I hope you understand some of our frustration in responding to you. When you keep company with sociopaths like ART, your own credibility is on the table, my fiend.
I actually kinda like you, but that's beside the point. A few years ago I said to you something along the lines of; you're closer to FG than you think, or something like that. I think it was at another joint I used to post at... Anyway, I still think you are, it's just that you really need to take the time to think about some of the ideas that are being presented to you.
The minds here are not some kind of lightweight bullshitters, there's some really valuable thoughts floating around this place. Honestly, I feel kinda out of my league here, but it's all good. We are all here to learn from each other, and that is the key.
When you respond with stuff that we've addressed 8.73 gazillion times, you're gonna find yourself hitting a very solid wall. Bring something new, or please join me at the back of the class and learn - and bong hits if you want one;)
I actually don't even own a bong, but I do have a sweet Wizard Pipe...
Back to my wine and stack of new(old) vinyl:) Only reason there's no tunes attached to this post is that there's 80's metal flowing through the tubes and scorching the turntable right now...yeah!
Sleeping Village,
I'll never forget our "energy" conversion, and you're a great guy. Maybe I'll see you in Vegas...
PS energy doesn't exist - your wrong :-) I'd love to argue the point over a beer.
Eduardo
I too have a voice that will not let me overlook certain misuses of the lingo. Her name was Parl she was my maiden school teacher aunt. As I was driving to the coffee shop where I now sit I heard the guys on the radio misusing 'amount of' and 'number of'. Similar rule apply as to fewer and less. It kills me hear some talking head on MSM TV misspeak. If I was getting paid to do the national news I think I'd tune up my language skills and vocabulary.
As a native speaker who was 'reminded' every time I used incorrectly I have an advantage I know. I also know how hard it is to learn a second language so if I hear an accent it doesn't bother me. If it s affected speech (some one pretending to be a redneck) ditto. My poor son now gets it from me. The abuse goes on.
Indenture, MF
Just a comment about coconut oil. I use it for all my cooking needs, this is not due to any dietary knowledge but due to local custom and it is how we grew/ used to.
Coconut grows naturally in my native place.
Since past 20 years there has been a strong campaign against coconut oil implying cholesterol content in coconut oil. So media had been recommending sun flower oil. So piece of coconut and it's oil have not kept up with inflation. Farmers still keep growing coconuts in our land only because it grows naturally.
I buy fresh coconut oil from my native country to USA but I have to tell you that coconut oil goes bad over long periods of time, so we put in freezer.
I hear you costata, this decision to allow foreign interests to buy Canadian ventures is very controversial. It has not gone well with Vale (brazil) buying a nickel venture in Ontario/Newfoundland nor with US steel buying a venture in Quebec. We turned down an offer last year for Potash Corp to be aquired by a Chinese conglomerate (I think).
There is now ongoing dispute with Chinese companies bringing in foreign workers in Northern BC.
This is becoming a big deal, on the one hand we have to diversify aaway from the US market, because they are broke, and on the other hand we have to noT sell the farm.
Our stupid ass prime minister is a classical economist by trade. This is his second term, his first term he only won a minority governmnt, and thus he was kept in line. He recently won a majority government and now displays all the attributes of a wannbee dictator.
My apologizes to sleeping if he is in love with our federal and provincial leaders, no offence intended.
BTW costata it's not very nice to refer to commentors as morons and idiots .... just reminding you of your new years resolution of 2010 ;)
Beer Holiday,
Cheers to that, the feeling is mutual. Man, I've been learning a bit (need more input):) about particle physics the past few days. Heavy on the Dark Matter end of the spectrum, with a touch of M Theory, of course... haha;)
We're thinking we'll be there in Vegas with you guys, but it's not for sure... Just watch for the longhair, bearded guy wearing a bandanna, with a supermodel in tow;)
To be honest, there's no other trip I'd rather take.I hope the TSA dudes don't give me the glove... makes me want to drive down, hah.
Anyway, I'd love to sit down for a chat with you and everyone else here. I'm making it my mission to make this happen.
>I broke my rule of not posting while drinking/drunk.
Wild Child
What a killer album.
Wendy:)
The HarperCons are not my idea of a party. Same with the rest of them, pretty much. I agree with different parties on different levels, which is pretty much useless as I sit here in my chair.
Viva Las Vegas!?!
Viva to you as well sleeping. If you can make your way to Spokane and acess Southwest there, you will enjoy the cash savings
@Michael H
Quote:"In deflation la-la-land, farmers harvest first and plant second, since only irresponsible farmers go into debt to grow a crop."
You seemed to have skipped the part where I said "otherwise they would not be stuck in debt". Farmers able pay the debt off with their harvest are not irresponsible debtors.
Quote:"In deflation la-la-land, prices of goods go down while everyone keeps their jobs and their current salaries, making everyone have greater purchasing power."
Except deflation is merely free market at work. Anytime anyone brings a new product to the market, the product is going to compete against other existing products for money supply. There are bound to be winners and losers. Such competition is naturally deflationary.
For example, radio makers had a good run until black white TVs came around to beat them, They had to cut the price on radios to compete and their jobs / salary took hit. It's how competition works but looks like you don't want it.
So what do you suggest, Michael? Do you want to inflate it so that we could fight off the evil deflation hurting the radio makers? Shall we print some FIAT to prevent radios from becoming cheaper? Does the public deserve to buy more affordable radios, yes / no? HOHOHO.
Quote:"In deflation la-la-land, someone who saved green pieces of paper by foregoing X amount of real goods and services in the past, is now entitled to XXX of your real goods and services today."
Then why do you save in gold? Goods and services deflate when priced in gold over the years so your gold saving will take advantage of it to buy more in future. Why diss deflation and then turn around pursuing the savings that bring it?
Quote:"Let's see ... 2% inflation per year is about 0.04% inflation per week."
Right, why make a big deal over sth so little? After all we have been taxed so much already so no biggie any more. In fact if we calculate it by days it'd look even less. HOHOHO.
You know it reminds me when Social Security was introduced in US. One of the selling pitch was "it's just a little tax (2-3%)". SS turned out a sweeping success, and now the same govt running SS is supposed to be part of FG management. I'm sure success will keep coming. :-)
Rui
"The reality is debtors (bank & govt) are controlling the FIAT supply in freegold. Debtors by their very nature are fiscally irresponsible, otherwise they would not be stuck in debt. We don't expect responsible management from irresponsible people, which is why we doubt about your system."
I think this is an excellent comment. Some have already taken you to task about parts of it, but let me share my view.
"The reality is debtors (bank & govt) are controlling the FIAT supply in freegold."
Hmm. Correct. The debtors would control the volume of supply brought to the market. However it is not quite so simple as that. You see, while they may control the supply, they do not control the value. Paraphrasing, the printers of paper don't tell you want it is worth in real trade. You find that out when you try to buy things with it and the person accepting it makes his price. Under freegold savers control (the bulk of) the value of the fiat money issued. Because of this irresponsible printing does not turn out to be worthwhile.
"Debtors by their very nature are fiscally irresponsible, otherwise they would not be stuck in debt."
Hmm. Well governments certainly are. When talking about individuals, there are certainly people who are irresponsible with they money...let us call these your debtors. And with that in mind I would agree with you. Notice though that it is not true of everyone, and also that the economic environment will serve to reinforce or temper people's individual natural tendencies. In the present economic system debtors are encouraged to be fiscally irresponsible, and others who would not normally be such (borderline cases let's call them) are also debtors, while even some who are naturally prudent may be turned into debtors under the current system. Under freegold however the opposite encouragement and temperances would be in play. People would be encouraged to be savers ( our borderline cases) and some debtors may even become savers, due to the force excerted by the system.
"We don't expect responsible management from irresponsible people, which is why we doubt about your system."
Neither do we. That is why we appreciate gold outside the system that will both protect our savings, and temper the transfer of value to be only minimal due to our control of the value(not volume) of currency.
We have come to accept that one way or another the debtors will take value from the savers. Whether it be bloody revolution and all our assets stripped, or fiat inflation theft over time. We simply see freegold as a third alternative, which at least tempers those forces, while still acknowledging their existence.
Peace
TF
Ps. Savers will be rewarded and debtors discouraged under freegold, on net. Of course freegold is not as extreme as a hard money system, and the forces in play will be less. It however is not vulnerable to the systemic breakdown that a hard money system is.
@Rui you need to get over your evil bankers / all-caps fiat kick. To pluck a phrase - we have met the enemy, and it is us. In a way FG just holds up a mirror. We are all debtors and we are all savers. Bankers don't print money, they lend it. They'd go bankrupt like the rest of us if they couldn't pay it back. Central banks might get away with a little bit of this, but under FG their actions would be limp compared to our present system; and that little bit would be worth it (pragmatically speaking) because all the other alternatives that have been tried are worse.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LerRV-CGeFU
How long to this BS ends? I think 4 years. Four years of cheap gold.... get you some - thanks Aristotle :-P
MF, Your post at 10:51 was superb. Bravo!
Speaking about Aristotle, what happened with him?
Long time no hear...
Feedback request: Someone suggested that I should make a post about the arguments against Freegold. I thought it was a great idea! So does this suffice, or is it a bit too presumptuous? Poll to the right. ;D
Here's another option.
MF, Your post at 10:51 was superb. Bravo!
Seconded.
@FOFOA
I LOL'd at the first one - go with the dog pic!
Costata,
Thanks for your response detailing the different considerations you been through in choosing paper gold as a currency hedge.
I can see you have looked at a lot of different alternatives for your particular situation.
All I can do is wish you the best of luck!
One thing that made me think was this:
The AUD has been as low as 0.49 US cents and as high as $1.10 approx. Australia runs a current account deficit. If the AUD gets chopped in half then some import prices could roughly double. Under these conditions selling physical gold through a local dealer may be a big problem if his local demand dries up.
Normally we think of the gold market as the most liquid thing ever and what we worry about is supply drying up not demand.
If local demand dries up, you could assume there would be demand elsewhere in the region/world and then the gold would flow there. But maybe small/remote local areas could see demand drying up, but couldn't you just travel to a big city to sell your physical gold if you needed the paper for expenses?
Is it fair to assume that if your currency is chopped in half, your exports and industry would boom all other things being equal (and that we are not talking outright HI)?
Does anyone else fear that physical gold demand could dry up in your local area maybe because of economic downturns or other things?
Personally I haven't considered a local illiquid gold market as a threat before. On the other hand, I have considered an illiquid or locked-up physical gold market as BULLISH for FG. But that is the supply (in size) that will dry up (at current paper price).
Of course good arguments for the reverse situation (demand drying up) could make me change my mind in that regard...
Thanks.
/Burning
Regarding CHOLESTEROL, I started eating up to 6 whole eggs a day for breakfast and have never had more muscle on my body.
And yes, for most the Paleo Diet will fix all ailments. Find a good forum, learn the basics, and enjoy your new life.
Burning,
I think the global demand for gold is (and will continue to be) so overwhelming that demand will not likely be an issue. Anyone dealing in gold, however remote, has a premium buyer, direct or indirect, in the big city.
However, if and when gold demand does somehow collapse, I think we'll be more worried about wandering bands of nomadic mutants raiding our neighborhoods - not totally out of the question, but not something I'd predict either.
I would be more concerned about what the USG is willing to do when faced with the collapse of its paper.
There has been talk of annuitizing 401K's for example, which has lathered up a few savers because the best time to steal paper is while it still has perceived value.
They have already stolen back 98% of their own paper's value from everyone of us, and still they want more ... but of course they do ... they NEED more to make up for what they've stolen, as their ongoing theft continues to debase it.
So I think this fiat slow-burn, your namesake, assures demand for the anti-fiat until the last smoldering pile of it, 401k's and all, is ashes and dust.
Wil,
I said:
Of course good arguments for the reverse situation (demand drying up) could make me change my mind in that regard...
You said:
I think we'll be more worried about wandering bands of nomadic mutants raiding our neighborhoods - not totally out of the question, but not something I'd predict either.
LOL, that just confirmed me in my existing position.
I think we agree-> The supply of paper will be kept sufficient to allow for on-going gold demand until the very end of this paradigm.
Any other takers on the "gold demand drying up locally"-theory?
Burning, you got mail.
Another offtopic theory :-)
BH and /SV/
I have some interesting news for you. GR breaks down while explaining rotation curves of Galaxies.
There is conclusive proof that Dark Matter is superfluous for explaining rotation curves.
The proof rests on Modified Newtonian Dynamics or MOND.
MOND is a non-relativistic equation, which gives the rotation curves of galaxies, using the visible mass.
MOND states that there is a critical acceleration scale a0, above which Newtonian gravity is applicable, below it the gravity is defined by the geometric mean of Newtonian gravity and a0.
MOND works very well at galactic scales. There are no known instances where it does not work. It is known not to work very well at higher scales, eg Cluster of galaxies. It works so well that it can explain the wiggles in the rotation curves of galaxies.
It had predicted Low Surface Brightness Galaxies, before they were found out. It works very well for globular clusters and other types of sub galactic structures.
It is to be noted that it is just an empirical formula, and cannot be used on much else other than rotational curves. This means it is useless as a better approximation in place of GR. A toy relativistic theory called TeVeS has been created, but it is very ad hoc, and still doesn't explain cluster of galaxies.
Now note that a theory must explain all available data. MOND "fits" a very large body of data. Because of this GR must explain MOND.
Unfortunately GR is inherently local while MOND is inherently non-local. So the two are very much incompatible. Also MOND shows that Dark Matter is not required in the galactic scale. This means that GR+DM can also not explain MOND. It would be weird if DM even though it is supposed to be made of exotic particles, must anyway be distributed strictly according to the distribution of Visible mass.
Since GR is incompatible and DM is superfluous to explain MOND, it follows that GR is invalid at Galactic scales. I am pretty sure if GR doesn't work at galactic scales our understanding is very much flawed. And hence there is no point in extrapolating GR to cosmological scales.
There are a couple of issues with GR for Cluster of galaxies which are undergoing collisions. The Bullet Cluster shows higher velocities than possible with GR, and Abell520 is totally unexplainable with GR.
MOND is like Kepler's laws. Kepler's laws worked only at Solar system scales and not at Galactic scales. Similarly MOND works only at Galactic scales, but not at Cluster of Galaxies scale. Kepler's laws were explained by Newtonian gravity. MOND must be explained by GR, and since it does not, so GR is falsified.
I have a theory why nobody is accepting this falsification of GR.
1) MOND proponents are overstating the claim. They are trying to project it (TeVeS) as a replacement. This it can never be.
2) Cosmologists cannot accept the falsification. There is a saying a man will not understand a point, if his job depends on his not understanding it. The problem is that if GR falsification is accepted, there is no theory to work with. They are basically get left with the only task of searching for a new theory.
I discovered this issue in 2004. MOND has been there since 1981. And has been collecting corroborating data, since then. I scour the Arxiv for suitable replacement theories every few months.
At present I think Verlinde's Entropic Gravity seems the most promising. It does away with gravity as a fundamental force and relegates it to an emergent property due to Thermodynamics of Entropy.
Another interesting one is Doubly Special Relativity, which has two constants Speed of Light and Planck's Length. It is known that these two are fundamental constants. Since GR uses only speed of light, that might be a problem with it, which manifests itself at a0.
If you have any queries you can send mail at anandsr21 (gmail).
First thought that costatas new avatar is Dr. House ;-) (kinda sad they stopped that TV show).
As for the Cholesterol, its the starting point for the hormones. And regarding health, don't forget green tea.
I'd like to close with a book recommendation, its like a bible for the laws of the spiritual world (breaking the law, lol, as long as you don't break the laws of nature) :
"The Master Key System" by Charles F. Haanel, a golden oldie so to speak. He used to be also in Gold mining. But be warned, he's said to be a freemason, Another evil conspiracy cult /sarc off.
Rhonda Byrne based "The Secret" on it. I've read the master key system many times, too bad I discovered it so late. We are used to think the wrong way, its the thought which commands materia. Practice this and it is doing wonders for your success!
Health, Wealth and Love,
KG
enjoyed the debrief
Is there a meeting or event scheduled for Las Vegas? I have seen some reference to this.
@"M"
The Bank of NovaScotia is a bullion bank here in Canada. Every capital city branch sells physical right from 1/4 oz to 10 oz bars. Maybe even London good delivery bars. Prices are good too and the more you buy the better your exchange rate and the lower your commission. The mark up isn't even one percent depending on what you buy. But Scotia Moccata online is way more expensive.
I don't know why more ppl don't just buy from bullion banks rather then these random coil dealer outfits.
In regards to purchasing coins from a Canadian bullion bank. Scotia bank has maples for 1863 US$ vs Gainesville Coins for 1741 US$.
http://tinyurl.com/av83lum
http://tinyurl.com/7cf8dgd
I took the liberty of converting the CAD to US$
CB
My view is that physical gold demand isn't going to dry up. It may ebb from time to time, but that's about it until the system resets. Here in the U.S. it seems to me there are two primary avenues for demand to ramp up to a substantially higher level, one avenue is a shift in institutional commitment, and the other, which is by no means disconnected from the first, is a shift in consciousness (amongst those with some savings) such that they really understand that physica gold is the best safehaven to acquire to protect their purchasing power of their dwindling nest eggs. This is, for the most part, where things like money management is concerned, a top down culture, so hoi pilloi take their cues from on high.
With that in mind, I do wonder if a change in gold's status vis a vis Basel III might not grease the skids for institutions to change their modus operendi such that a few percentage points are allocated towards acquiring physical. If and when marginal flow can't keep things under wraps- and right now it only manages by raising the price 19 percent per annum- things should get very interesting on the upside.
@Joe I am a cyclist. The Palio Diet seems a little low on Carbs (cycling fuel). I don't remember Cavemen riding bikes so this probably explains it.
@MF good debrief. Your comments are always straightforward and interesting.
In general I am confused about what is going on. At times things seem to be getting worse, then it's all fixed. Sometimes FG looks obvious (to me) and then not. Where did RPG go on the world stage?
Also back on "Focal Point: Gold", and related to the above, I still do not understand why Chen continued to "play the game". I know it was a simple analogy and it made a good point, but there is that "nagging something" which the analogy (probably not intended) also provided.
burningfiat,
One last comment on this hedge arrangement. It isn't predicated on a permanent fall in AUD. This currency is treated like a casino by speculators such as hedge funds. If AUD was chopped in half locking in the under-pricing of the currency might require quick action.
To date Australians haven't embraced physical gold. Real estate is still considered the go-to asset by the average punter. I hear what you say about selling gold off-shore but that has it's own problems. Local dealers could easily see demand dry up if gold doubled in AUD terms.
In any case it's been a valuable excercise for me in revisiting the rationale for the hedge. So I thank you and the other discussants for the opportunity to revisit it.
Wendy,
I hear you!
Anand,
Interesting thoughts. I see I have much more to learn....much, much more.
Since most of this falls in the realm of theoretical physics, you might find this theory thought provoking or at least entertaining. Best to start with his first post and read through to the latest one.
That link is for you too, BH, and anyone else who might be interested:)
Black Hole Sun
FOFOA,
I liked the first graphic better.
Also a suggestion. I would farm out the topics as well and make the post a collaborative effort that evolves with the comments and responses. Perhaps update and add to the post as the comments unfold.
It would be an opportiunity to display how exhaustively counter-arguments and possible alternatives have been explored by many here. Attack the cult slur if you get my drift.
I'm thinking of that back channel excercise we undertook a couple of years back when we argued the pro and con of currency swaps as an alternative to Freegold-RPG. I ultimately had to concede that I couldn't make the pro side of the argument. But if you recall we went at it for about a week before the debate was finally settled.
We could also revisit the debate about SDRs which went on for months (sporadically) in these pages.
Cheers
Wendy,
Thanks for the local colour on these deals allowing China (and others) to take bigger stakes in Canada's natural resources.
I understand the local reaction to "selling off the farm". It's a big, multi-faceted issue.
This may seem to be unrelated but how much of the debt that the banks used to fund your RE bubble was raised offshore?
I just have to share one more gem with you guys before I retreat for a while.
Blank Maps
Some songs have a certain power over me, and this is one of them. Best to give in to it.
I am a goddamn believer.
I really have no idea costata. Do you think there is a relationship? I also don't know how much of this bubble was funded by offshore cash coming in with very wealthy immigrants not needing mortgages.
Although I might be wrong I do suspect the bubbles are regional. for instance Vancouver and Toronto in addition to other cities that are resource hubs.
There is not a housing bubble where I live..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-09/historic-inversion-shadow-banking-now-complete
My emphasis
How was this drop [in shadow banking balances] offset? Simple - by a $177 billion increase in the liabilities of U.S.-Chartered Depository Institutions, which rose to a record $12.224 trillion in Q3, primarily due to a rise of $140 billion in Small time and Saving Deposits..
$12.224 trillion would make a big pile on your front lawn. Consider making a few word substitutions in that famous quote from FOA about the front lawn dump. How about fiat is the essence of bank deposit liabilities? It works for Treasury notes/bonds and so on.
Here's an instructive excercise for newcomers to this blog. Draw up a list with two columns under the general heading Hyper-Inflation. Sub-head the first column Winners and sub-head the second column Losers. I'll contribute two entries for these lists. Money Centre Banks and Bank Depositors respectively.
And for those deflationists who argue that HI would be a free-lunch for people with fixed mortgages I would say - maybe. Consider what HI would do to the replacement cost of the existing US housing stock. This line of thought might offer an insight into another way to win from HI if, of course, you own a lot of that housing stock.
The sensible way to play that "hand" would be to drip feed the stock onto the market to maximise returns by keeping the market tight and if a HI event occurs before you clear the inventory then the re-pricing of the nominal value of the remaining stock should more than offset your losses. Heads you win and tails they lose.
Hi Wendy,
The play is to massively indebt the government to foreign lenders. Obviously the local capital market can't replace the foreign debt otherwise it wouldn't have been needed in the first place.
It doesn't require every region of the Canadian RE market to be over-priced and over-indebted. What matters is the total level of foreign debt relative to the size of the local capital markets and the willingness of the government to take on the debt via nationalizing the banks or by bailing them out.
Then the strategy for the creditors is to use their position of strength to force the government into privatizing public assets and using a combination of "austerity" and foreign direct investment to offset the capital shortfall.
On a positive note the government could instead force the creditors and shareholders to eat the losses on their exposure to banks - so-called "haircuts". It depends on whether the politicians are on the taxpayers side or the international creditors.
When John Howard gained a majority in both houses of Parliament in Australia some years ago the government (whether intentionally of for ideological reasons) threw the citizens under a bus. Politicians here get away with this stuff because the time lag between their actions and the results flowing from those actions makes it impossible for most Aussies to identify the link between cause and effect.
costata wrote,
"And for those deflationists who argue that HI would be a free-lunch for people with fixed mortgages I would say - maybe. "
It should be something of a free lunch for anyone with a mortgage that doesn't reset to a higher rate within what should be a relatively short period of time. And that will be most mortgages.
That is interesting costata, thanks for your thoughts. I will have to think about this and keep my ear to the ground.
Hi Edwardo,
Agreed, but I think the main risk is a post-Weimar type legal change in the treatment of debts.
On the plus side it may be that individuals benefit as a result of the big boyz getting what they want. The reverse of collateral damage - "collateral benefit"?.
If you own RE debt free it might be the safest way to benefit from a nominal rise. If there's debt involved I suspect it would require careful structuring of the deal to try to benefit from HI.
Costata,
"Agreed, but I think the main risk is a post-Weimar type legal change in the treatment of debts."
Could you restate that to clarify what that post-Weimar type legal change means?
If it's complicated, feel free to give me a homework assignment instead.
Thanks.
Edwardo,
In reference to your comment about HI and RE this leapt out at me (my emphasis) in Doug Noland's latest bulletin (link below):
From my analytical perspective, the SAAR $299bn contraction of Home Mortgage Credit was the biggest surprise for the quarter. This compares to Q2’s $214bn contraction and Q3 2011’s $200bn decline. With mortgage borrowing costs having taken another leg down to historic lows – and all the talk of an unfolding housing recovery – I was anticipating a return to positive mortgage Credit growth in Q3 or Q4.
But, then again, with negative real returns on savings and such highly uncertain policy, market and economic backdrops, it remains perfectly rational to pay down mortgages and other borrowings.
Looks like the public is doing its level best to position itself on the wrong side of a free lunch from HI on their mortgages by paying them down at an accelerated rate. So the contrarian position appears to favour the result you outlined.
I also thought this was noteworthy (my emphaisis):
For Q3 2012, Rest of World (ROW) accumulated U.S. Financial Assets at SAAR $625bn to a record $19.388 TN. In what would not appear a great vote of confidence, demand was predominantly for low-yielding government debt.
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10735
I'd like to hear what you have in mind regarding "post Weimar-type legal change." I mean that would be a hell of a thing to expect someone to pay back in new dollars anything like what they owed in old ones.
However, given the nature of governments, I don't see any reason, save greed, to wait until after the HI has completely run its course to pull the plug on one's mortgage.
Thanks, cos, for passing along the information collected by Doug Noland.
Dear,
Enjoy these:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Q7E-c-y9zE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3ENqn26X1o
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlDpMBVaaAI
Good night.
byiamBYoung,
The government restated the terms of mortgage contracts to redistribute the perceived gains from HI between the lenders and the borrowers. So if, say, folks had mortgages equal to 50% of the value of a house pre-HI and the value of the mortgage in real terms (priced in devalued currency) was cut by 99 per cent then this was perceived as a gain by the borrower at the expense of the lender that they were not entitled to.
The mortgages were restructured to restore them to, say, 50 per cent of the property's market value post-HI and this was payable to the lender in the new stable Rentenmark currency. (They apparently overlooked the savers in this brave attempt to rewrite the wrongs of HI wealth redistribution.)
The government applied a Marxian doctrine called "valorization" to mortgages. At the risk of over-simplifying it, this doctrine states that there are objective "values" which may be different to market prices and/or actual prices and payments received by various economic actors (e.g. labour).
This doctrine holds that governments can/should apply these inherent, objective values to equitably redistribute wealth when the market fails to distribute it equitably. From a Marxian perspective a capitalist economy will always fail to distribute wealth equitably so it's carte blanche for government to override the market.
(I'm sure you will find much better explanations if you search for them.)
It goes further than mortgages of course. Nifty doctrine if you're into social enngineering. You can apply it to wages, profits, taxes, property, production, agg produce (you name it) and justify taking anything you wish from one party in order to give it to another.
Hi All
Thanks for the Physics links, I'll read through them.
But unfortunately I have some news about my opinion of modern theoretical physics. I think it got infected with the "zombie virus" around the 1980's like the rest rest of westren thought h/t Mencius Moldbug (in the blog list on the right if your interested).
It is a tribute to human ingenuity and thought that any science is done successfully in this BS world
That's the trouble with physics :-) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trouble_with_Physics
@Wendy, it was us Aussie's after your potash, AD's favourite stock pick, BHP .
If I can help with a criticism of freegold, let me know. Has anyone else considered what 50 000 $ gold would do to a continent full of bogans like myself with too much time on their hands? We'll I have, and it's not so straight forward as " 50 000" gold, that's fixed everthing, now we can finally solving quantum gravity, feed starving people, and populate the moon after 30+ years of pissing in to the wind....
Your favourite incoherent rambler
BH
Costata,
Again, thanks for helping me along.
It would seem, then, that in a HI event, if one had the resources available to pay down a mortgage stridently before potential government intervention stepped in, that such a pay down might be a smart strategy, right?
Cheers
Hello byiamBYoung,
It is my considered opinion that there are numerous pitfalls which could potentially prevent a debtor from profiting through hyperinflation. It is for this reason that I don't advise the debt play and I'm not making a debt play myself. But for some, those who already have a mortgage on their primary residence, minimizing the potential risks so as to maximize the chance of profiting through hyperinflation is well worth consideration.
In general, yes, all nominal debts get inflated away. But I think that if you want to "lock in that profit" and not risk having it taken away from you by the hungry collective, you should plan to retire your debt "along the way" rather than waiting for the end. Considering Freegold and hyperinflation together, I think that a small window of opportunity is revealed in which you sell some gold and use the proceeds to retire your debt. I'm not saying that's the only way anyone will profit from debt through hyperinflation, just that it may be the best way to avoid the risk of waiting too long.
You won't be able to sell your gold at the right price while "gold is in hiding" but right after that period should be the window of opportunity. And any other plan for coming up with the funds to retire your debt along the way is suboptimal. Buying physical gold now and waiting for the window of opportunity is the optimal plan, IMO.
In addition to Costata's comments, here's a relevant email that John Rubino forwarded to me from one of his readers back in 2009:
"Today I read a short little book titled "Fiat Money Inflation in France" by Andrew White (published 1912). My general impression is that there is no law so insane that it can't be enacted during a hyperinflation. As you may know, they even passed a law such that debts increased along with the issuance of further currency, so that for every so many additional assignats printed, one's debts increased by 25%. Thus they took away the one silver lining of currency debasement for the middle class. What a nightmare. I liked this bit from the book:
----------
All this vast chapter in financial folly is sometimes referred to as if it resulted from the direct action of men utterly unskilled in finance. This is a grave error. That wild schemers and dreamers took a leading part in setting the fiat money system going is true; that speculation and interested financiers made it worse is also true; but the men who had charge of French finance during the Reign of Terror and who made these experiments, which seem to us so monstrous, in order to rescue themselves and their country from the flow which was sweeping everything to financial ruin, were universally recognized as among the most skillful and honest financiers in Europe. Cambon, especially, ranked then and ranks now as among the most expert in any period. The disastrous results of all his courage and ability in the attempt to stand against the deluge of paper money show how powerless are the most skillful masters of finance to stem the tide of fiat money calamity when one it is fairly under headway; and how useless are all enactments which they can devise against the underlying laws of nature."
Sincerely,
FOFOA
@Motley
Quote:"Paraphrasing, the printers of paper don't tell you want it is worth in real trade. You find that out when you try to buy things with it and the person accepting it makes his price."
The printers don't just print and be done with it. Their next move is directing the printed FIAT to where free market wouldn't go to produce a distorted price. It's not "the person accepting it makes his price" any more. The printers are there manipulating the price, which is the source of these housing and bond bubbles.
And you think irresponsible printing is not worthwhile to them? It's front-running those bubbles that brings bankers fast and furious profit. It's financing the social programs with cheap money that buys politicians votes. They crave for the printing.
FIAT out of thin air is almost god like power. Whoever have the power become audacious & arrogant and consider themselves invincible. They will abuse it to do what they feel like while ignoring rules and laws. It's simply human nature. If anything gets in the way such as you savers, they won't back off. They want to run it over instead.
And you are not helping yourselves by following their propaganda of the "need of a central controlling", "having to fight deflation", "pro-reality" and so on, which emboldens them to keep doing it.
byiamBYoung,
It might work in theory but if a government decides to intervene I don't see how you could stop them from reinstating the mortgage even though you paid it off. But I'm not a lawyer and that's being extreme to say the least. I'm not suggesting that it could happen again in precisely the same way as post-Weimar-HI Germany.
But note that Iceland's response was to legislate cram downs to 110% of property valuation for underwater mortgagors and to redenominate mortgages written in foreign currencies into local currency. Governments have more than one way to interfere in private contracts.
Some discussants here over the years have talked about strategies involving taking out a fixed mortgage and hedging it in gold. But that would require some very careful thought. Particularly for those of us outside the USA under different legal regimes and contractual arrangements for mortgages where RE prices are still over-priced at bubble levels.
By way of example I know for a fact that an Australian bank recently hit a client who owns investment properties for an equity top up when he reorganized his portfolio. Outsmarting a bank is no easy task. If they have government in their pockets then the odds are massively stacked against you.
byiamBYoung,
FOFOA's comment to you went up while I was writing mine. This may be the best advice of all. Whatever you do don't get greedy and lose a window of opportunity if it opens. Good luck with whatever course you choose to follow.
MF,
I'm not commenting on Rui's drivel anymore. (I'm afraid of Wendy.) So he's all yours.
FOFOA,
I agree completely, and to take it a bit further ... from my last comment:
"I would be more concerned about what the USG is willing to do when faced with the collapse of its paper."
I do believe there will be much social unrest in the land of exhorbitant priviledge during the coming currency hyperinflation and thoughts will turn from "how to profit" to "how to survive".
The corporatocracy has been stealing from the serfs quite elegantly for quite some time, but if MFG and Sentinel are any indication, when the currency hits the fan all pretense will be dropped.
Who can know the minds of men when their paper burns? Trying times are ahead.
Last one from me for a while. Another snippet from Doug Noland (my emphasis):
December 7 – Bloomberg (Craig Torres and Josh Zumbrun): “A decision by the Federal Reserve to expand its bond buying next week is likely to prompt policy makers to rewrite their 18-month old blueprint for an exit from record monetary stimulus. Under the exit strategy, the Fed would start selling bonds in mid-2015 in a bid to return its holdings to pre-crisis proportions in two to three years.
An accelerated buildup of assets would also mean a faster pace of sales when the time comes to exit -- increasing the risk that a jump in interest rates would crush the economic recovery.
Right on Martin Armstrong's cycle turn date.
And again with all due respect:
"Buying physical gold now and waiting for the window of opportunity is the optimal plan."
This is the crux of what I have gained from an understanding of freegold.
Let us hope that we retain the freedom of opportunity in which to optimize that plan.
The USG has become quite adept at removing both liberty and opportunity for all but those who live in the big house.
The classe politique marks to fantasy model, while those who plow the fields have their A$$ets marked to predatory market.
And last, as if by divine providence:
The Bank for International Settlement had been established in 1930 to try and manage the fast-collapsing international Gold Standard. Based in neutral Switzerland, it was supposed to be above politics, and although its senior staff were all senior central bankers in their home countries, they played by a "gentlemanly" code of mutual support and respect. Unelected both then and now, central bankers held themselves to be noble and independent from the dirty business of democracy or dictatorship.
So when, on 20 March 1939, just after the Nazis marched into Prague, a message was sent to the BIS apparently by the Czech National Bank, the BIS duly passed the message on. It asked the Bank of England (then, as now, the world's premier clearing point for physical gold) to move the metal held in BIS account No.2 to a new BIS account, No.17.
Never mind that the Czechs had already sent word that any instructions would come "under duress" and must be ignored. Never mind that the British parliament had put a freeze on all Czech assets, to defend them against Nazi theft. And never mind that the Bank of England knew BIS No.2 contained Czech gold, and that No.17 was held for the German Reichsbank. Because the Bank of England's governor, Montagu Norman, was also a director of the non-political BIS. And he'd do anything to protect the noble independence of central bankers, applying their "gentlemanly" rules and so appeasing the Nazis one last time, by feigning ignorance of whose gold sat in those two anonymous BIS accounts.
The transfer was done before anyone outside the central banks knew, and the gold was then sold in just 10 days. By the time the story broke in May, the £6 million in proceeds was long gone. (We can find no reference to the transfer, nor to the national scandal starting in May, in Norman's spidery-writing in his personal diary.)
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-confiscation-120720125
Hello Wil,
You are right, profiting from debt through hyperinflation is not a sure thing. It is possible that "they" could prevent you from retiring your debt, even with optimal planning on your part.
But Freegold is a different story. Personally, I'm not making the debt play. But don't conflate the two because if you understand Freegold then you understand how "they" won't have the incentive to do what you're implying applies to both debt and Freegold. That's one of the key things about Freegold where a lot of people finally go, "a-ha, now I see, they (meaning the USG elite) will need Freegold and therefore they will embrace it and even defend it if necessary!"
Sincerely,
FOFOA
FOFOA/Costata/WIl,
Thank you very much for your comments. I am studying them closely and weaving them together. I'll respond soon.
Cheers
"Bacon, get you some." -Another Freefatter
I tried yesterday to learn how oil could be purchased without paper from the gentlemen at TFM. I got the impression that the majority of the regular posters don't care. It appears that when silver breaks the manipulation shackles the price will skyrocket but correlating this new silver price with the purchasing of petroleum didn't seem important. Perhaps I was too nice.
Indenture,
If you have a set of jumper leads I can probably help you out on your "too nice" problem.
This might be old ground for some regulars, but I these articles really struck me that people have been thinking in freegold like ways for a long time (since at least the 60's).
Repost of a link to some of Bob Mundell's work Real Gold, Dollars, and Paper Gold
Also, The monetary consequences of Jacques Rueff: review article is eye opening.
Here's how Mundell thinks Gov's have painted people like us in the past (from real gold, dollars, and paper gold) "...evil goblins dedicated to the lust for gold...." I think he was only half joking :-)
Hope this ins't a repost of recently discussed material.
I think I can say that freegold isn't a theory to me anymore, but a description one solution to serious problems in the world financial architecture.
It's the only solution IMVHO that I not going to really hate, so I hope it all the best.
PS apologies if the above links are behind a pay-wall, not sure how to fix that.
Wil,
The USG has become quite adept at removing both liberty and opportunity for all but those who live in the big house.
Just to make sure we are keeping the perspective. You poor chaps have had to live with such government for decades because some (equally hapless) foreigners such as first Japan and Europe and later China for some reason decided to fund these very governments for decades.
These governments have long been unable to fund themselves domestically. In a closed economy without foreign support, they would have starved long ago (and most likely been replaced by something else that can fund itself domestically).
Greece is the word.
I had seen Indenture's raid, but kept silent as I didn't want to spoil the party. Indenture is brilliant, and the reactions quite funny to read. It starts right here.
Victor
If you believe in freegold, then a debt play is actually not worth it. Freegold is supposed to give you 10x-30x. To invest in RE you have to put in 10% minimum, and then pay interest and principle every month. What's the benefit :-).
On the other hand if you are taking personal loan to invest in gold. That is a worthwhile option. Even if the whole loan got reinstated post HI, you have had 10x profit.
Hi Victor
I think Bob Mundell had some ideas about that too, as we both know very well :-)
Sorry, can't find the link
On China, I think many underestimate how quickly they started sucking up gold into the void Mao has left, as soon as they could, but that's just speculation.
I think China know this game very well, as Peter Schiff likes to joke about
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkEtArDFNYA
BH,
The Chinese were in the Australian gold market in the late 1980 to obtain, primarily, technical and operational expertise in gold mining. (Just after they liberalised their Mining Law in 1986.)
Their problem in ramping up local production was that up until Deng opened up their economy they were largely restricted to seeking visible gold veins due to their primitive technology. And for quite some time after 1978 that was still the case. I've seen annual production estimates as low as 60 m/t in China in the early 1980s.
Cheers
Indenture,
Some ammo for your TMF foray:
One of the [British Geological Survey] BGS' criteria for determining supply risk is Scarcity and they provide a handy table of each elements global scarcity. Silver is 0.055 parts per million while gold is 0.0013ppm. Hmm, that is a ratio of 42.3:1.
http://goldchat.blogspot.com.au/2012/10/tungsten-bars-face-high-supply-risk.html
Does anyone else think Robert Mundell might one day be known as "Father of freegold", in addition to his unofficial father of the euro title?
Who is the father of freegold? Another?
Wow, thanks Costata, that answers a lot of question.
My friend the other day talked about Chinese "gold armies" scouring the country-side, after Mao. I guess that plus primitive mining techniques would yield at best, say the gold mined in the Victorian gold rush. Which I believe was in the low 100-200 tonne range in total.
Far easier to keep to dollar system working while the gold flows, I guess.
Thanks
BH
Here's a link to CHina's gold armies, interesting.
http://english.caijing.com.cn/2012-08-31/112096341.html
Indenture and VtC,
I tried to read those exchanges at TMF with Indenture but the replies are driving me nuts. The last one I read claimed that Turkey was exchanging gold for Iranian oil (and presumably gas since Iran also supplies that to Turkey). Factually incorrect. Provable too. These aren't barter deals. They are transacted in Turkish lira.
I also noticed someone linked the information that Bron used in his tungsten comment to support some assertion about tungsten bars - presumably that tungsten was too scarce to use in making fake bars. The commenter appeared to miss the "scarcity" GSR that Bron highlighted.
Good luck Indenture. Let me know if you want some facts, figures or links to flesh out any of your arguments.
BH,
The other factor to recognise is that heap leeching, which made unviable low grade deposits viable, was a relatively recent invention back then. If memory serves me it took off in the very late 1980s or early 1990s. So the ramp up to No. 1 gold producer took a while for many reasons.
Thanks for the link to the gold army shots.
Costata,
It's an interesting picture you paint.
On one hand, China has gold armies, nationalised they're gold industry, and seem to be hoovering up all the gold they can. I think Bron said once that most of the gold flows through Perth mint to India and China. I've read the same for Canada as well.
What is the Aussie responce? go along with the $IMFS, sell most Aussie Gov gold, and leave the rest in the ground for the future.
Meanwhile China, our main trading partners becomes richer in gold, and seems to have propped up the $IMFS well past it's used by date.
China's gold production increases with time, but it doesn't seem to have in the West. How profitable have the miners been, really they a terrible investments compared to the price of gold. I don't quite understand why the RBA doesn't just buy our own gold on the open market or directly. Maybe they're not allowed to ? We have a too strong a currency, and low gold reserves, but they keep pretending not to notice the obvious solution.
Just they way I'm seeing it, don't know if it's correct.
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