Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Confessions of an Erratic Marxist



"So, given the trends established during the past three decades,
with savings rates at 10% and growth no more than 1.5%,
[the $IMFS] is pushing us to a situation where wealth will
exceed six times GDP and the proportion of GDP that will be
going to those living off wealth (as opposed to wages) will
be at least one third. This is an unsustainable tendency that
operates like a time bomb in the foundation of [the $IMFS]."

That's from this pdf by Yanis Varoufakis, which is a good read, especially section 2 where he explains the difference between wealth and capital. This difference is the key to Yanis' rather harsh critique of Thomas Piketty's 696-page treatise on global inequality titled Capital in the Twenty-First Century.

Here are a few excerpts from section 2 of the pdf which is titled Conflating wealth with capital:

Collecting stamps is a romantic and, in many ways worthy, pursuit. It can also be quite profitable. Similarly with art collections. Or a garage full of Ferraris. Nevertheless none of these assets can be enlisted as inputs into some production process.



In short, production and growth depends on material or physical capital. And while capital is a form of wealth, a great deal of wealth is not a form of capital; i.e. it is not an input into any production process generating hitherto non-existent commodities. Thus, the growth of an economy cannot rely on wealth. It needs a particular kind of wealth: capital goods. So if we conflate capital with wealth, our theory of production will suffer to the extent that we will have wilfully misspecified a key input, mistaking all increases in wealth as increases in capital’s contribution to the production process.



When a capital good has a physical form, we more or less know its material utility since it is a technical matter to work out, e.g., how much electricity an electricity generator produces per hour per given quantities of diesel. But what is the return to an art collection that the collector is not auctioning off? Or to an owner-occupied home in which a family insists on living? Indeed, what is the rationale of treating (as Professor Piketty must do, to remain consistent with his wealth-capital conflation) the income of a stamp collector from trading in stamps as a return to capital (and not as income from work) while the super-sized bonuses of money market traders are counted not as returns to capital but, instead, as… wage income?

Naturally, Professor Piketty knows this all too well. So, why has he chosen to conflate capital and wealth? One plausible answer is that his primary concern was to present an empirical study that tracked the evolution of Western civilisation’s wealth and income distributions, so as to show that inequality is spreading like a forest fire since the 1970s… Alas, this required a demonstration that his wealth-metric is interchangeable with a reliable capital-metric; a demonstration that is impossible and, therefore, never appears in the book’s many pages.

Summing up, Professor Piketty’s capital is a metric of wealth. A hugely important metric indeed since, in any society, relative wealth determines the relative power between those who have oodles of it and the rest who do not. Adam Smith, one may recall, made his name with a magnificent book that attempted to explain “the nature and causes of the wealth of nations”. So, why did Professor Piketty not attempt to emulate the great Adam Smith, mainstream economics’ patron saint, given that he, in essence, wrote a large volume on the… wealth of nations? Why did he, instead, choose the title of another classic book, Das Kapital, that does not reflect in the slightest the contents of his own book or the method of his approach?

One explanation… is that Smith… had precisely the opposite perspective to that of Professor Piketty on the prospects of wealth inequality. In contrast, Marx’s epic narrative on capitalism’s remarkable capacity to create, simultaneously, untold wealth and unprecedented misery resonates much better with Professor Piketty’s message; namely that capitalism, left unchecked, has a ‘natural’ tendency toward creating vast, destabilising inequality.

Yanis is a complicated and clever Marxist. He deeply agrees with Piketty's radical egalitarianism, or activist opposition to the perceived inequality between the haves and the have-nots as delineated by Marx, but he doesn't like the idea of an authoritarian state taking care of the redistribution of wealth, which is why he sometimes identifies himself as a libertarian Marxist. He also thinks that the standard leftist or "social democrats'" approach to the problem of "capitalism", which he sees typified in Piketty's book, is at best flawed and weak and at worst dangerous.

Here is Yanis explaining his often-seemingly-non-Marxist-rhetoric and his deeply-Marxist roots from a keynote speech he gave at the annual radical left Subversive Festival in Croatia in 2013 (and from whence came the title of this post) titled "Confessions of an Erratic Marxist":


When I chose my PhD thesis, I intentionally concentrated on a method within which Marx was not simply wrong, he was irrelevant. When I landed my first economics lectureship in Britain, the implicit contract between my university and me was that the sort of economics I would teach our students would be as far removed from Marxism as is humanly possible. When I moved to Australia in 1988, unbeknownst to me, I was recruited by the right wing of the Sydney University Economics Department in order to keep out of the Faculty another candidate whose former supervisor was thought of (quite rightly!) as a dangerous Marxist. Later I moved to Greece where I (foolishly) became, quite officially, an advisor of George Papandreou -- the man whose government was to mediate Greece's passage to Hell a few years later. While I resigned that position in 2006, having gotten whiff of the impending disaster, I carried on teaching, at the University of Athens, quaint (and admittedly vulgar bourgeois) subjects like Game Theory and Microeconomics to a large number of Greek students, who remained touchingly oblivious to the catastrophe about to befall them. Back in 2002, well before the Global Crisis erupted, Joseph Halevi and I tried to sound a warning -- but we failed to make an impact. Even though in 2006 I did my best to warn Greek society, and anyone who would listen, of the impending disaster, I shamefully remained part of Athens' and Europe's 'polite society', not once taking to the streets.

When the Global Crisis erupted in 2008, and soon engulfed the Eurozone, I began writing articles and making frantic appearances in established and less mainstream media alike, promoting a fundamentally bourgeois agenda for saving capitalism from itself! When the going got really tough, at a personal level, in Greece, I migrated to the USA and took up an appointment at the University of Texas. To this day, I am struggling to impress the powers-that-be that they must urgently adopt specific bold policy recommendations in order to prevent an inevitable crisis from crushing capitalism. In summary, not one of my academic publications can be thought of as explicitly Marxist, while my energies are channeled into preventing capitalism's collapse. Nonetheless, all along, from my student days in Britain to this very day, the only way I could make sense of the world we live in is through the methodological 'eyes' of Karl Marx. In itself, this 'fact' renders me a theoretical Marxist. Moreover, I feel Marxism in my bones every time I am engaged in any form of intellectual pursuit: from discussing the Arab Spring to debating the intricacies of Art with my artist partner. Furthermore, a democratic, libertarian, socialist future is the only future that I would be willing to fight for. A most peculiar Marxist no doubt, but a Marxist nevertheless.

Piketty's book, more than just being a weighty doorstop, is about the problem of inequality and how capitalism only makes it worse. The haves have way too much and are gaining more each day while the have-nots have less and less as each day passes. It contains an academic and mathematical "proof" of his thesis, plus empirical data to back it up, which is that capitalism leads to the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer at a rate where the return on wealth (the risk-free income received from savings, investments, wealth and capital without doing any work and without touching the principle) amounts to a third of GDP and the total liquidation value of that wealth grows to six times GDP.

In other words, one third of all of the productive output of the global labor force goes to service the consumption of the non-working capitalists, and the remaining two-thirds goes back to the labor force. Furthermore, since wealth can be inherited and passed on from generation to generation, as long as the wealthy save a portion of their labor-free income at a higher rate than the poor save a portion of their labor wages, the wealth gap grows larger and larger.

Yanis thinks Picketty did a terrible job proving his thesis. From section 5 titled Why, oh why?:


So, why? Why base such a weighty treatise, as Capital in the Twenty-First Century clearly is, on shaky theoretical foundations? If I were allowed to speculate on this question, I would be tempted to outline two reasons. One is expediency. Professor Piketty’s analysis allowed him to come up with some very catchy numbers; e.g. the ‘result’ that when the rate of return to wealth is at its historic average of around 5%, there is a tendency for wealth to grow to more than six times the level of GDP and for income accruing to wealth to converge to one third of GDP (see note 9). This is the stuff that contributes to headlines that journalists and the wider public are eager to consume. But to come up with these numbers, and then argue that they are reflected in the empirical data, the author had to ‘close’ his model; he had somehow to snatch determinacy from the jaws of radical indeterminacy. And if this requires incorrigible assumptions that are ill equipped to sustain the cold light of critical analysis, one may be tempted to assume that the wider public will never know or care. Catchy numbers, in combination with excellent marketing, are bound to over-rule any objections like the ones appearing in this journal in general and in the present paper in particular.

Piketty’s policy recommendation for stemming "inequality’s triumphant march" is a global wealth tax, which Yanis doesn't like. While he agrees with Piketty's thesis in spirit, he's tired of leftists making weak arguments and policy recommentations which are easily defeated by smart people on the right. From the conclusion (sect. 7):


Consider what the implementation of this global wealth tax would mean:

Returning to the long-suffering Eurozone, let us pay a visit to one of the thousands of Irish families whose members remain unemployed, or terribly under-paid and under-employed, but whose house has ‘managed’ to escape the travails of negative equity. According to Professor Piketty, these wretched people should now be paying a new wealth tax on the remaining equity of their homes, in addition to their remaining mortgage repayments. Independently of their income streams!

Taking our leave from these suffering families, whom Professor Piketty’s wealth tax would burden further, let us now turn to a Greek industrialist struggling to survive the twin assaults from non-existent demand and from the severe credit crunch. Let us suppose that her capital stock has not lost all of its value yet. Well, soon after Professor Piketty’s policy is enacted, it most certainly will, as she must now cough up a wealth tax that is to be paid from a non-existent income stream.

How long will it take, dear reader, before committed libertarians, who believe that wealth and income inequality is not only fine but also an inevitable repercussion of liberty-at-work, latch on to the above repercussions of Professor Piketty’s policy proposals? Why would they hesitate before blowing his analysis and recommended policies out of the proverbial water, castigating them as sloppy theorising leading to policies that simultaneously (a) worsen a bad set of socio-economic circumstances and (b) threaten basic liberties and rights?



Moving on to the realm of political philosophy, some years back I expressed the view that well-meaning proponents of distributive justice and equality were perhaps egalitarianism’s greatest threat…

Arguing from the perspective of a radical egalitarian, I conceded that the libertarians had the better tunes. That their focus on the justice of the process generating values and what distributes them (i.e. their dedication to procedural theories of justice) was significantly more interesting, useful and, indeed, progressive than the pseudo-egalitarian dedication to end-state, distributive, theories of justice. That the libertarians’ readiness to separate ‘good’ from ‘bad’ inequality, rather than to treat inequality as a single, uni-dimensional metric, held more promise to those who wished to understand the vagaries, and instability, of capitalism than the social democrats’ protestations that income and wealth outcomes were too unequal. That those interested in reinvigorating a pragmatic, radical egalitarianism should abandon static notions, and simple metrics, of equality.

Reading Capital in the Twenty-First Century reminded me of how the cause of egalitarianism is often undermined by its most famous, mainstream proponents. John Rawls… did untold damage to the egalitarian ‘cause’ by offering a static theory of justice that crumbled the moment a talented libertarian took a shot at it. Professor Piketty’s book will, I am convinced, prove even easier prey for today’s, or tomorrow’s, equivalent of Robert Nozick. And when this happens, the multitude that are now celebrating Capital in the Twenty-First Century as a staunch ally in the war against inequality will run for cover.

Down at the bottom of this post you'll find the video of Yanis' keynote address (with the same title as this post) to a room full of angry Marxists who, you'll learn during the Q&A, are skeptical that Yanis is really one of them. It's long like the last one, and also like the last one the first half is the speech and the last half is the Q&A, but I think you'll really enjoy this video just like the last one.

In it, you'll learn that Yanis despises economics, and he views himself as someone who has used his own personal sacrifice of half of his life spent learning economics and becoming a professor to gain entry into the top level of economic dialogue (e.g., being invited to speak to central bankers, right-wing politicians and MSM news outlets like Bloomberg) in a subversive way, kind of like a Marxist spy who has withheld his true agenda.

He says that, because some of his statements seem so harsh on the surface, he is always getting contacted by right wingers "and Ron Paul types" who think he's like them.

These Marxists hate "capitalism", or actually they hate what they think is capitalism and what they refer to as capitalism which is really just the ridiculous $IMFS which we hate as well, albeit for slightly different ideological reasons. So in a way, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" thing comes into play here a bit in that Yanis and I both think the same thing about the $IMFS—that it is imploding—only he calls it capitalism.

In the video, he says repeatedly that he wants to save capitalism from itself, and what he means is that he wants to save the world and the international monetary system from falling into a global depression worse than the 1930s, caused by the collapse of the $IMFS/capitalism. As we often say about people like this, he's so close yet so far away.

Here's a line from Yanis in the video below:


"Think about capitalism… it is a metaphorical production line that produces two things simultaneously: immense wealth and unprecedented poverty. "

You see, his complaint about capitalism is the same as my complaint about the $IMFS. When savers save in debt, it leads to not only way too much debt, but also a conflict of interests between the debtors and the savers.

I want to you spend a little bit of time thinking about the many ways in which Yanis' "capitalism" and my "$IMFS" are the same thing. Probably the biggest problem with the $IMFS over the last couple of decades, and a problem which led directly to the financial crisis in 2008 when Yanis says the "surplus recycling mechanism" died, is the securitization of debt by the banks.

They did this because of overwhelming demand for those securities from savers like the PBoC, German pension funds, and just about everyone else for that matter. It was not because the banks wanted to increase their loan books that they drove lending standards into the gutter creating Subprime and all kinds of other problems. It was because they could offload that risk, sell it to someone else, and make a tidy commission in the process.

With that in mind, here's a short anecdote from another presentation Yanis gave in 2013, this one titled The Dirty War for Europe’s Integrity and Soul. Yanis began his presentation like this, "allow me to begin with several ‘true stories’ that will, hopefully, transport you into the Europe that I inhabit. Each of my tales will come with a short title." The tales had titles like "Error", "Denial", "Impotence", "Despotism", "Ignorance", "Wickedness" and "Serpent DNA", which should give you an idea of the tone.

This was one of the shortest, and it was titled "Frenzy":


Franz, not his real name, worked for a major German bank for twenty-five years. In 2011 he confided to me that the Euro’s ‘good’ years, before 2008, had been the worst of his life. From 1999 to 2008 the pressure from his bank’s Frankfurt HQ on executives like him was relentless. Before the Euro, his job entailed flying around European capitals, assessing the credit worthiness of governments, local authorities, utilities, developers, local banks, large businesses; playing hard to get with them, and eventually signing off on loans that made sense to him. However, once the Euro was established the Frenzy began in earnest. HQ was pressurizing him incessantly to lend, lend, lend. When he warned them that increased lending would mean subprime loans to iffy customers, they couldn’t care less. It was all about securing a higher share of the Euro market than other banks – French banks in particular – who were also on a lending spree. And since total lending effected was linked to his and his bosses’ bonuses, Franz and his colleagues were sent to Dublin, to Madrid, to Athens, to every nook and cranny with a hitherto low level of indebtedness. Their mission? To increase it. “I lived the life of a predator lender”, he added.

Notice the correlation/causation fallacy. Because the predatory lending began around the same time as the euro, causation is lumped onto the euro. But this same phenomenon was happening on Wall Street and Main Street USA as well, perhaps even more so. The new single currency in Europe no doubt made it easier for the German banks to jump borders, but it was an $IMFS game nonetheless. Remember it was Goldman Sachs that reportedly taught the Greek government how to really take advantage of the new euro by ramping up its spending and its debt in the early years. Was that caused by the euro, capitalism, or the $IMFS?

This is Yanis' view of capitalism's drive—predatory lending—which, as I argue, is simply the result of extra demand from the Savers (a group distinct from—and much larger than—professional investors, speculators and traders) for more debt to save. Physical assets rise in value as more Savers save in them, but debt must rise in volume in order to accommodate a growth in savings. One increases the debt level while lowering interest rates and lending standards leading to all kinds of problems in the real economy, and the other does not.

Of course professional investors, speculators and traders will always invest, speculate and trade in debt and equity ownership in other people's businesses. But, in the future explored on this blog, they will have to be sharp to pick the winners, and they will be competing against the banks which can always underbid them for the best borrowers, so risk will be ever present for private money that wants to generate a return.

Banks don't care about the occasional socialization which eats away at the currency's real value because their nominal balance sheets don't change with the currency. If the currency devalues, then their assets and liabilities devalue simultaneously and their net position stays the same. And if Savers saved in real physical wealth assets rather than debt and currency, they wouldn't care either.

Just imagine if all debt was held by banks. Now imagine that only the best debt is held by banks, and the more risky debt is held by private money chasing a yield. That's how I imagine the future will be. Just because the Savers stop recycling their surpluses to the Debtors does not necessarily mean a credit crunch. Banks can theoretically issue all debt up to the point at which their CB will no longer monetize that debt which goes bad, and the investors, speculators and traders can tempt fate with the rest.

Here's a simple fact which hasn't been discussed a whole lot. We have been brought up with the premise that if we can somehow obtain a large enough fortune, then we can sit back and live off the interest risk-free without ever touching the principle, pass that principle on to our children and they can do the same into perpetuity. This is a false premise, even if it has worked for the last 40 years.

Yes, you can put your money to work and, if you are successful, live off of only the yield while growing or not touching the principle. But you can't do so risk-free, and that's where millions of Savers have been misled. In reality, you save during your working years, and later live off of those savings by running them down. There's no such thing as a risk free return on capital, an old lesson that old money knows all too well, and the rest of us will learn soon enough.

For savings to work properly like this, over long periods of time, requires a salient focal point physical wealth asset with a long history of being used for that purpose. That is not stamp collecting, fine art, or even a garage full of Ferraris. It is gold, not as part of the monetary system, but as a real, physical wealth asset just like Yanis used stamps, art and Ferraris to explain.

In the speech below, Yanis explains one of his subversive tactics which he learned from Marx. Marx called it immanent criticism, which is where, rather than attacking your enemy's premises, you accept them as a given for the sake of argument, and then show your enemy that he is failing his own principles. I wonder if anyone has tried this tactic on Yanis yet. ;D

Sincerely,
FOFOA


509 comments:

1 – 200 of 509   Newer›   Newest»
Michael dV said...

Freakin Yanis (referenced) can't argue without using some quantity to the negative 1 over e. Damn those economists…and I was a math major. Who thinks that way?

Michael dV said...

to be clear I'm referring to fofoa's referenced pdf:
http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue69/Varoufakis69.pdf

Michael dV said...

YV speaks of the past 3 centuries of capitalism. 300 years ago John Law was laying the foundation of the Mississippi Company which was the first widely used paper 'currency' (the stock of the company). It will be quite the thing if we can get a monetary system right after 300 years.

Roacheforque said...

He's clearly not an interventionist (which is probably why you like him?) but he certainly won't be the first to "conflate" the the death spiral of a debt-based fiat reserve weath system with capitalism. It's probably the most common misconception we deal with, conceptually, as we struggle to reach solutions like freegold.

Perhaps we're all erratic Marxists now. Certainly, this more finely tunes the meme that we're all socialists (including the HMS's).

I think you have a cup of coffee or two with Yanis and attempt to convert him to Freegold (a worthy pursuit ;0)

But, considering that you've mentioned him quite a bit now, I strongly suspect that Google will have lead him here already, and in effect that excercise is well under way ...

gamblesmurf said...

So if he rejects "simple" distributive egalitarianism, what would his brand of radical egalitarianism entail in practice? I somehow remain skeptical that this guy will be the first Hot New Economist in over a century whose theories involve leaving me the f*ck alone.

Zebedee said...

There's no such thing as a free lunch........

Finders weepers, losers keepers

sicp reader said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sicp reader said...

Martin Armstrong predicts Sovereign Debt Big Bang 2015.75 FOFOA pls write an article about this.

vizeet srivastava said...

I admire Yanis and FOFOA. Problem with Yanis is not seeing where we are heading but FOFOA knows this. I also admire Marx because he could forsee the problems of capitalism. I think freegold alone will not fix all the problems with capitalism, but it will make financial system more stable and in a way self correcting. A good solution will have more cooperatives, cottage, small scale industries. I see socialism as a political structure which gives equal opportunities and fare share to individuals. That is ultimate goal which is very difficult to implement. We don't know if Yanis has a way to implement it. But from what I have read, it doesn't appear that he has solution for current economic problem.

DP said...

a great deal of wealth is not a form of capital; i.e. it is not an input into any production process generating hitherto non-existent commodities.

The global fashion among "savers" in recent decades has been to, increasingly, demand and hoard the debts of consumers. Which is truly at root of all today's economic ailments. We are apparently to call this toxic phenomenon "capitalism", and to despise it because The Bearded One made me do it.

"Surplus recycling" is not synonymous with "capitalism". A far more apt word may be "parasitism".

Motley Fool said...

Michael

That's not e, it's epsilon, which he defined as "the elasticity of substitution between capital input (K) and labour input (L) for the production of the same output". :P

DP said...

A far more apt word may be "parasitism".

… Or simply "$IMFS".

Motley Fool said...

gamblesmurf

Haha!

@sicp reader

I wouldn't hold my breath. MA is not held in high regard around here, to put it euphemistically, and I include myself in this.

In my experience, just reading his work is a waste of time, never mind going to the effort of responding to it.

Phat Repat said...

"I see socialism as a political structure which gives equal opportunities and fare share to individuals."

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

Socialism is nothing but malinvestment.

MatrixSentry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
MatrixSentry said...

I will say this about Martin Armstrong, he has gone all in with his position that the sovereign debt bubble implodes later this year. Where does he go when that does not happen? To be fair, what happens to his credibility if it does occur on schedule?

He's saying that essentially Freegold happens this fall. FOFOA's position, mine as well, is that he does not do timing and Freegold could happen at anytime. I think if Martin is correct on timing it's by pure coincidence, not because a talking computer said so.

DP said...

Computer made me do it!

Rock on.

Flat Shoe Lance said...

But for 40 years earning a yield works and beats the pants off saving in gold. The key is to know when a currency has run its course. If you insist on saving in gold while the sun is shining you'll be sorry for several decades and probably will have eaten your capital before debt deflation arrives.

The wise saver adjusts his gold allocation as appropriate to the long wave. That means maybe holding only 5% while the credit expansion is working. While earning a yield if one is pathological worry wart there's nothing stopping him from converting some of the yield to metal. But you have to keep in mind that metal is not a productive asset. It's insurance against the credit flame being snuffed out. Being over-insured can be just as harmful as being under-insured. And it's this point that most disturbed my group going thru the posts on this blog---the assumption gold goes up during inflation.



jojo said...

Grumpsy, is that you hiding in that cloud of flatulence??

In case not, you just showed how little you understand of what you've (supposedly) read here. You totally missed any understanding of FOFOA's last posts in particular. You show no understanding of why the last 40 years worked as it has. If you understood that, you wouldn't say such confused things like above.

"not a productive asset" bwaahahahahahahaha!!

"the assumption gold goes up during inflation."
uhh...whaaaa???? and please do differentiate for us inflation vs. hyperinflation. That ought to be interesting.

Your "group" should probably reconvene and reassess their reading and comprehension skills.
Seriously.
If that is your take on this blogs subject matter after a whole "group" goes through it....dang! Your group is a group of monkeys.

So what has your "group" written?

Or, are your posts here at fofoa the result of your group hammering away at the keyboard?

When your "group" of monkeys read all those times on this blog "buy only as much gold as you understand", how did you misinterpret that?

tEON said...

+100 jojo

I believe Flatulence belongs to a troop of monkeys... and he sure smells like GrumpsLaElephantTurd.

Canadarob said...

Sicp reader,
Believe me. No matter what happens, MA WILL assign some event to that date. Regardless of what happens. He can't afford to be wrong. If nothing happens on that day, he will find something. His bias to his computer program is very loud indeed yet he constantly goes on about opinion meaning nothing. Hey Marty, if opinion means nothing, why is yours so damn loud?

Michael dV said...

Lance
That is clueless. It sounds like a CNBC rec.
Yes we understand the prevailing view. You seem to fail to understand that we don't believe or trust that view point.

Motley Fool said...

franek

Economics in one lesson by Henry Hazlitt perhaps?

Google search will provide a free copy.

Canadarob said...

Flat shoe lance,
Are you suggesting that the sun is still shining on credit expansion? Have you seen any currency's movement in the last couple months? You hint that the importance is to note when the credit expansion has reached its peak. Are you not seeing the peak?
Yes, if I could go back in time to the 80s I would probably spend exactly $0 on gold. Its a good thing its not the 80s right now.

Flat Shoe Lance said...

No, now is the time to be over-allocated in gold. But when the debt load is gone and PE's match dividend yields then it will be a multi-decadal opportunity to grab assets that outperform inflation.

The sun set on credit in 2008. It's only been intervention that has kept bond prices up and deflation/HI at bay. But now we are getting close to the point creditor nations are ready to implement their own system. Notice how the IMF is nowhere to be seen? Notice how gold and silver have been preternaturally tranquil amidst all this turmoil?

Edwardo said...

There's a redolent smell on the blog
More fetid than some gaseous bog
The funk of a turd?
To that I say, word
It's the poop of a flea bitten dog

Franco said...

If there was one concept that I read on this blog that really resonated with me, it was that of being a saver versus a speculator. When I read that for the first time, it was like something had been misaligned for a long time in my psyche, and "click" it went right back into its proper place. I thought "yes, deep down I've always been a saver, but years of indoctrination had me almost convinced that I HAD to speculate with my hard-earned money". And you know what, fuck that yield-chasing bullshit. I earn a living by working, and whatever I have left after expenses, I want to SAVE it. So please kindly stop it with that mendacious bullshit that I have to chase yield because you need a greater fool to hold the bag in the end. Rant over.

Knotty Pine said...

Word! +100 Franco

Michael dV said...

Fartaceous
with what will you grab all those assets? Are you hanging onto cash for when the crash comes?

One Bad Adder said...

@FSL: - Timing is (currently) everything eh?
...however, associating Gold acquisition and "timing" is IMHO missing the point completely / entirely.
TIME is intrinsic to the survival or otherwise of the "current" System ...whereas GOLD is Timeless ie: surviving isn't an issue.
@all: - The Short-Long Yield Ratio is getting VERY interesting in here - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX:$IRX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91409460008

anand srivastava said...

Franco:

Exactly. This is what is the bottom line. I am not really good or interested in betting and I don't want to bet. I would much rather buy gold and relax. The prospect of it being highly undervalued is just an icing on the cake.

ReferencePointGold said...

And if Savers saved in real physical wealth assets rather than debt and currency, they wouldn't care either. Thats a powerful statement

ein anderer said...

And it’s not only the yield, wich is such a disputable concept for a saver (because yield means unrest, whereas the saver likes rest).

For me it is the mere fact that you have to give away what you just earned! Give your earnings to others and let try them to do something with your left overs!

There is no proudness in this, no self-confidence. It’s a kind of canine devotion instead: to those who claim to know better than you what to do with your savings.

Always thankful for this blog, its predecessors and its host.

Roacheforque said...

Canine devotion ... I love that.
Time perhaps to hide with what one has in its belly while lion's fight over the wages of sin.

Phat Repat said...

Interesting observation and chart from a site showing a projection of Gold heading towards $600.

My only question is, will there be any available for purchase? I'm hopeful.

ein anderer said...

@Phat,
probably I will never understand the system behind those charts. After the lines are drawn, things looks logical.
But were are the laws which are forcing us to draw espacially these lines?
Actually one could draw many more lines—with totally different results, right?
Wondrous world of TA …

Phat Repat said...

@ea

TA is based on rules. And there are a good many patterns in the TA world that work (until they don't, but at least you know). Aside from that, however, it has been postulated here, that the $POG will go to much lower levels at which point, boom, no more gold available; enter FG. That chart is rather interesting as it shows the evolution of a trend over several years. So it has merit showing the bounds of the paper price of gold. I would sit up and take notice if it happened to have a sustained jump outside of those bounds. And besides, it is no different than watching the trend in GLD holdings. Or is it? ;-)

The dork of cork said...

Social creditors are aware the labour theory of value has been incorrect since the age of steam power.
Its the need to acquire the capital goods themselves so as to access purchasing power which is destroying energy before it can be used for effective consumption - this is very very clear on all energy balance charts.

The dork of cork said...

http://www.socred.org/blogs/view/a-national-dividend-vs-a-basic-income-similarities-and-differences

The dork of cork said...

Note when the industrial surplus mechanism begins to break down the dividend can no longer be provided for adequate consumption - you then begin to go towards Bellocs agrarian distributionism which is most likely happening in Greek villages and isolated areas in the west of ireland

Flat Shoe Lance said...

Have you heard of the DGR? Or any other asset to gold ratio? The strategy is to move from gold to income producing REITS, MLPs, and dividend stocks. imagine a Proctor & Gamble trading at a PE of 7 and with a 7% dividend. Get your money back in 10 years with just the dividends.

I think it was the Aden sisters who politely referred to their gold investor clients as their "most unsophisticated." The responses I see here certainly don't discredit the assertion. Reminds of the scene in Million Dollar Baby when all the billy-bob goober relatives show up bedside crying for more moolah. "We spent it all at Disney World." That's the attitude amongst this crowd. Gold will be the gift that keeps on giving. Put it away and your purchasing power will increase with time never going down.

The Chinese have the right attitude about gold. They realize it has a cycle. Leadership walks a fine line promoting gold ownership. They don't want citizens going overboard saving totally in gold, but they want gold reserves to be out in the public to compensate for deflationary busts.

The dork of cork said...

In the extreme SW of Ireland local farmers market are accepting silver above the market price.
This area has artisan undertones with many small hobby farms not configured for mass export of produce.
Also the population is more independent from extractive former state monopolies such as nat gas providers , instead they burn biomass (wood and turf) and acquire heating oil when the price is right or when they have spare cash.
Therefore the less rent and tax you pay the more attractive silver becomes........
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=69OsED-mbyY

The dork of cork said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2E2g0TJVdJ4https%3A%2F%2Fm.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D2E2g0TJVdJ4

Native breed adapted to local conditions.
Beef sold locally in beefburger van ( no middleman)
This is the first non Tudor style ( agri export exploitation ) operation for many hundreds of years.
This is despite and not because of the European construct which is a almost identical replacement for the fascist British banking union.

The dork of cork said...

Silver man in his city stall.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wXQ1ahFDLSQ

Not sure if he is accepting silver in the big smoke............

Canadarob said...

Flat shoe lance,
Who's pay roll are you on?
Money? What's that? Oh you mean get your currency back in ten years.....

fftastic said...

Dr. Jens Weidmann, President Deutsche Bundesbank gives a keynote speech at the city of London corp.
London | 2015-02-12

Heading for stability and prosperity – Bringing the euro area back on track

Edwardo said...

The stench on the blog does persist
A match might take care of the mist
From assorted bog trotters and other mad plotters
Who intone as if they were pissed

The dork of cork said...

Class war in 17 the century England begins again after the reintroduction of usury during this time........the diggers make the mistake of putting their fate in Oliver Cromwell ( the guy who reintroduced its widespread practice).......the diggers blame the toffs on horses as they desperately seek a yield /rent to pay for exponential interest...........

The dork of cork said...

They were of course crushed by the money power , they served their purpose.
The Diggers - the very first communist movement.
These peasants became serfs.....not approaching their standard again until the mid 20 th

fftastic said...

Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the FT Debt Capital Markets Outlook Conference in London, 12 February 2015

Economic Developments in the Euro Area

The dork of cork said...

Diggers - first communist movement ( mid 17 the century)
Used by the banks to put pressure on owners of independent capital ....then subsequently destroyed by the banks.
English peasant class no longer exists ( unlike the French who benefited on occasion from strong catholic kings )
Become debt serfs / miners etc etc.
Never reaching their previous standard of living again until the mid 20 the century.........
Beware of Marxists no matter how well spoken.

Dr. Octagon said...

"Physical assets rise in value as more Savers save in them, but debt must rise in volume in order to accommodate a growth in savings."

This is a fantastic line.

Flat Shoe Lance said...

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-ratify-agreement-brics-bank-111406060.html

A BRICS Gold bank?

http://news.xinhuanet.com/local/2015-02/13/c_127490660.htm

Shanghai FTA to enter the "gold modified version 3.0," Zhang Xin, deputy director of the Shanghai headquarters of the Bank of New Deal innovations

queckshep said...

I recently listened to a radio podcast featuring a good friend of Yanis, Steve Keen (Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University London). His solution to our current crisis is in line with Yanis' thoughts, namely to transfer the surplus from the savers (in reality the taxpayers) to the debtors exclusively, by means of a one time money transfer in the accounts of the debtors, on the condition that the debtors use this money to pay of some of their debt. I would love to see the reaction from the E.U. when Yanis proposes such solutions. In other words Ben wants free fish from Chen all the time :-)

https://audioboom.com/boos/2846464-prof-steve-keen-on-what-s-really-going-on-in-greece.mp3?nojs=1&recommended=0

Franek said...

@MF

Thanks for the suggestion, found it online and I'm on it...

KnallGold said...

Steve Strange, 80'ies New Romantic icon dies at age 55. The Visage of Fades to Grey. May he RIP. This music IS the eighties, so stylish, avantgarde and cool. Post 80'ies, yeah, mankind faded to grey :-(

Visage - Mind Of A Toy



The dork of cork said...

Car boom in Ireland and other euro conduits ( new car sales up 73% in Jan 2015 vs Jan 2013) points to a catastrophic misuse of energy which will feed into all areas of society,
Social creditors would immediately understand the flawed nature of this front loading of consumption by credit banks......euro car boom this year points to a certain further collapse in the future.

The dork of cork said...

http://www.beepbeep.ie/stats?sYear%5B%5D=2015&sYear%5B%5D=2013&sRegType=1&sMonth%5B%5D=1&sMonth%5B%5D=&x=18&y=5

The dork of cork said...

Energy is not saved in austerity Europe - it is simply concentrated.
Poor people pay gigantic rents to natural utilities such as in the nat gas area.
The system managers of these entities then burn the surplus in brand new giant diesel cars......
We are witnessing huge increases in diesel consumption throughout Europe and crashing consumption of all other fuels.

The dork of cork said...

IEA nat gas survey data Jan to Nov 2014

Oecd Europe consumption - 11%........
France with the deepest nat gas plunge - 18.3 %..........

The dork of cork said...

Electrical consumption in France down 10.9% in Nov vs Nov 2013.
French electrical consumption down 6.5 % Jan to Nov 2014.
This is the deepest plunge seen in the entire oecd........
Exports to the UK and others up massively

jojo said...

So.....how do you tie all those posts in with freegold Mr. Cork?

jojo said...

"if gold and cash both cost the same to own, then maybe gold — which has held its value over millennia while every previous fiat currency has evaporated — is the better bet."



Wake up!

The dork of cork said...

Globalism is breaking......France is a tinderbox.
The Dieudonne affair was so dangerous because of the very real risk to the elites.
A possible marriage of the former catholic conservatives with the franc Algerian underclass is a very real possibility.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3B9dS68CCoU

The dork of cork said...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05279pqQ

queckshep said...

+1 jojo
He pours confusing balm, but also talks completely off-topic rubbish.
cork, if you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.

The dork of cork said...

France and England would have had very similar cultures but for this period of time.
This BBC documentary goes as far as the established elite are willing to say in public.
Shakespeare's rich peasant family was destroyed by the Tudor wealth concentration experiment.
Understand this period of history and you can begin to grasp the nature of the modern world.

The dork of cork said...

Shakespeare saved his family by travelling to the big smoke but now these extreme concentration dynamics have ended in a giant cul de sac.
Catastrophic loss of redundancy can be witnessed.
A total breakdown of the relationship between the market town and country in favour of national and financial capitals.....

t au said...

dork of cork -

Dude-

Please, please post the name and address of your physician - I will gladly chip in for your now obviously tardy refill of Prozac.

db said...

Dock of Cock: get the Fuck out of here.

Sure, Ireland is great: so what?

You add nothing to the discussion, as jojo said: "how do you tie all those posts with Freegold?"

You've been wondering around here for too long to come up with such a crap!, you either agree with FG or you don't, and if you don't try constructively to debunk it, otherwise you should better go hassling other blogs (I'm sure you do)

Paraphrasing Ari: LIFE, GET YOU SOME!

Canadarob said...

Dork, you kind of lose credibility if you post every link you come across regarding the collapse.

The dork of cork said...

Sorry but fofoa groupies have in general been corrupted by the precious.
I know how it feels believe me.
Its sad but predictable.
Put your faith in the Jacques attalis of this world if you will , but remember their holy mission as they see it is to destroy all village like cooperation (real wealth)
Gold will have no function when that happens - it will find itself buried into dark age hordes .
In a similar fashion globalist Marxists such as Yanis will also destroy your family , the home and the hearth.
At best he wants a more gradual rundown of peoples life force.

The dork of cork said...

Madness madness ??????
Yee guys need to embrace it if you want to understand the world.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDlra8SsuXc

The dork of cork said...

Watching that scene today.
Its the madness of mercantilism.
First Spain , then Italy and finally France is mortally wounded.
Germany dispairing - looks the Greek monkey in the eye and flings it into the abyss.

The dork of cork said...

Jacques Attalis attempts at coercing the French hinterland into some sort of trade balance has created a dead zone.
Yee guys think its all about imports and exports across political barriers.........
No its not.
It about a full boulangerie early in the morning.
Yes , wine women and song.
Puritanism is a bankers projection.
Whatever you hoarde be it paper debt or metal debt, it will inject similar psychological pathology.

byiamBYoung said...

Wow, dork,

You seriously need to ease off the caffeine. If you are making a coherent point, I'm not getting it. Maybe it makes some deep sense to you, but it's just swirling mists of words to me.

Edwardo said...

Patrick O'Brien McPhee
Was mad as a hatter could be
The same thing to say day after day
Hardly pausing to crap or to pee

Jim Okefenokee said...

Is The Dork of Cork a pig-eyed mick?
Very tedious is his shtick
He might like Herzog
That's no saving grace
For a bog irish nuisance who's a waste of space

Zebedee said...

Let us hope that Golem XIV puts out another piece soon so the dork can resume his incoherent annoying rants on that blog.

The dork of cork said...

Capitalism is usury. ( interest bearing debt)
Yee guys all agree that gold is the other side of this debt.

However Both sides of this dynamic has failed.
It produces goods which are now unusable for most and must be dumped on the market.
The capitalistic national monopoly could at least produce some us able goods at the cost if war in its borders but the market state is incapable of recycling the industrial surplus period.

This is quite apparent to even dumb Irish micks.
Please let me return to the land of the bogs and the little people.
I want a end to the Tudor wealth concentration (camp) pronto.

The dork of cork said...

Correction " cost of war outside its borders"
You can see this quite clearly today.
Putin is a treaty of Westphalia type of guy.
As the European market state experiment implodes he wishes to restart national capitalism within his borders.
As a social creditor I am not a fan of this method but it is certainly better then the current euro entropy.

The facts on the ground are pretty clear if you care to look beyond your own theoretical construct which is failing in the real world

Jeff said...

Le dork explains the weirdness going on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4QKiYar9pI

DP said...

Super sharp shooter

The dork of cork said...

A real Marxist ( samir amin), unlike Yanis who is quite clear , he wants reform.
What reform means is further penetration of the generalized financial monopolies in everyday life.
"The “European” project as defined by the Maastricht treaty and the eurozone project were sold to public opinion by a propaganda campaign that can only be described as imbecilic and disingenuous. Some—the (relatively) privileged peoples of opulent Western Europe—were told that by erasing national sovereignties an end would be put to the hate-filled wars that had bloodied the continent (and the success of that claptrap is easily understood). It was served up with a sauce: the friendship of the great American democracy, the common struggle for democracy in that big backward South—a new form of acceptance for the old imperialist postures—etc. The others—the poor devils of the East—were promised opulence through “catching up” with western standards of living.

The majorities of both parts of Europe—West and East—swallowed this claptrap. In the East they believed, it seems, that adhesion to the European Union would enable that notorious “catch-up,” a good bargain indeed. But the price they paid—perhaps as punishment for having accepted regimes practicing the Soviet-style socialism called communism—was a painful structural adjustment lasting several years. Adjustment—that is, “austerity” (for workers, not for billionaires)—was imposed. But its payoff was a social disaster. And so Eastern Europe became the periphery of Western Europe. A recent serious study told us that 80 percent of Romanians reckon that “in the Ceausescu era things were better”!2 Could anyone look for a better sign of delegitimation for the supposed democracy characterizing the European Union? Will the peoples involved learn their lesson? Will they understand that the logic of capitalism is not that of catching up but the contrary, that of deepening inequalities? Who knows!

That Greece is today at the heart of the conflict is both because Greece is part of the eurozone and because its people hoped to escape the fate of the other (ex-“socialist”) peripheral Balkan countries. The Greek population in general thought (or hoped?) that having avoided the misfortune of being governed by “communists” (powerful in the heroic times of the Second World War)—and by the grace of the colonels!—they would not have to pay the price imposed on the rest of the Balkans. Europe and the euro would work differently for them. European solidarity, and especially that of the eurozone partners, however feebly it showed elsewhere (where the crime of “communism” was to be punished), would act in their favor.

The Greeks are stuck with the outcome of their naïve illusions. They should know now that the system will reduce their status to that of their Balkan neighbors, Bulgaria and Albania. For the logic of the eurozone is no different from that of the European Union; on the contrary, it reinforces its violence. In a general fashion the logic of capitalist accumulation produces an accentuation of the inequality among nations (it is at the source of the construction of the core/periphery contrast); and accumulation dominated by the generalized monopolies reinforces still more this immanent tendency of the system. Against this, it will be claimed that the European Union’s institutions provide the means to correct intra-European inequalities through appropriate financial support directed to the laggard countries within the Union; and this is believed by public opinion in general. In reality, this support (apart from agriculture, a question that will not be discussed here) is too insufficient to permit any catching up; but, even graver, it facilitates penetration by the generalized monopolies


The dork of cork said...

http://monthlyreview.org/2012/09/01/implosion-of-the-european-system/

Jeff said...

ANOTHER: You see this world with eyes much stronger than mine. I think the years of time does wear the truth from ones vision. My thoughts once were strong for things that benefit all people. Now I view only with the logic of what is "feasible" under current conditions. It is the sad conclusion of a life brought to reality, yes?
The interaction of productive peoples, of many cultures, does require an economic function of "broad scale". The choice for this day in time does not include the best solution for monetary ills, rather it be the selection that offers most economic production for all nations. The irony does prove that the currency platform I support be also the structure upon which we all will stand.

Most will seek out this position as the "free choice" not "forced choice".

You say, " I believe it will be detrimental to us all here". Perhaps, some will walk "the lower road", but many will rise from the shallows of economic despair. For most of this world, life itself is the "detrimental" journey that brings a yearning to walk "the higher road" that some consider low. Truly, our eyes will join to view this change that must come.

"in every life, time will prove all things"

Motley Fool said...

Dork of Cork

It seems to me that you are providing your raw thoughts on matters without creating context for others.You need to recognize that everyone has a different conceptual frame of reference.

Unless one tries to relate your thoughts in some common framework, even if you have to build it yourself, others will have a hard time understanding you.

Try as I might, I cannot make sense of most of your recent ramblings. Your atrocious grammar is also not helping.

Re energy consumption reductions - I note a worldwide trend to this, in large part due to our trying to use energy more efficiently, and new technologies such as led lighting.

It almost seems as if you took the heading of this post as an invitation. ;)

Peace

TF

The dork of cork said...

@ motley
Social credit in a industrial ecosystem
Bellocs Agrarian distributionism when this breaks down.
Its not that difficult when you understand the bankers false scarcity memes.
Scarcity is a artifical consequence of concentration (caused by usury and other corporate methods )

The dork of cork said...

http://www.socred.org/pages/the-douglas-internet-archive

The dork of cork said...

All Marxists replace their lack of spiritual belief with a materialist religion.
Even Samir amin wants the final spiritual nirvana of a global something or other - using the nation state rather then the market state as a pathway.
Social creditors see all such concentration schemes as different aspects of capitalism.
Social credit is in no way socialist.

The dork of cork said...

The world is not a jungle , its a glass /hot house.

The dork of cork said...

http://www.socred.org/blogs/view/why-social-credit-is-not-socialism

Motley Fool said...

Dork

"What Social Credit seeks is: "a society based on the unfettered freedom of the individual to cooperate in a state of affairs in which community of interest and individual interest are merely different aspects of the same thing."

I don't think you will find many here that disagree with this pov, whatever you choose to call it.

Why are you ranting, in fragments no less, and then linking bloody volumes of books?

If your intention is for us not to pay heed to what you want to say, my friend you are making an admirable effort and will not doubt succeed.

TF

Motley Fool said...

Ps. I do not agree with your statement that scarcity is not a constraint with which we have to live as a species.

The dork of cork said...

OK , my fault - first look at the second blog links and not the archive.
I would recommend you also read Eimer o Duffys trilogy to grasp the absurdity of the capitalist system.

The dork of cork said...

Scarcity is artificial under present conditions.
However it can and will happen for real at the point of system breakdown.
Most of the high quality fuels is burned by people in europe as they seek work.
Work is not work in the old sense of the word ( bringing in the harvest etc etc )
Works function in a capitalist system is the means to collect purchasing power.

However this very act destroys purchasing power before it can be used.
The function of this dynamic is simply to maintain concentration.

The dork of cork said...

At the point of breakdown you may get village elder( but most likely local masons )like characters engaging the populace in a older form of exchange.
This is the exchange of the medieval market and in no way conforms with social credit doctrine which only works under conditions of industrial surplus.
A trader accepting silver above the market price at a static level in this case is needed to revive cooperation at the local level.
However people must to a large extent remain out of the tax net for this to be successful.

Motley Fool said...

Dork

I suggest you reread my comments and take the time to take heed of them, instead of skimming.

You are still ranting without providing us context.

It is well and good that you have formed a conceptual structure in your mind that you are passionate about. Jumping in here with observations based on that structure, or mentioning some conclusions however will leave us rudderless...that is, even for those of us who may be interesting, which you seemingly presume to be all.

Introduction of a new topic should be done softly and slowly and rigorously, not in a raving mad haphazard way.

From what I have been able to understand so far, which is not nearly all, I have no interest in allocating time to pursue the matter, time being precious. The fault here is also yours.

One does not hammer others with new ideas, you seduce them.

TF

The dork of cork said...

As a caveat remember Samir Amins warning about false euro regionalism - the objective was/is to destroy nation states , once these nation states are destroyed the regions will be destroyed in detail.

The dork of cork said...

The Greeks are stuck with the outcome of their naïve illusions. They should know now that the system will reduce their status to that of their Balkan neighbors, Bulgaria and Albania. For the logic of the eurozone is no different from that of the European Union; on the contrary, it reinforces its violence. In a general fashion the logic of capitalist accumulation produces an accentuation of the inequality among nations (it is at the source of the construction of the core/periphery contrast); and accumulation dominated by the generalized monopolies reinforces still more this immanent tendency of the system. Against this, it will be claimed that the European Union’s institutions provide the means to correct intra-European inequalities through appropriate financial support directed to the laggard countries within the Union; and this is believed by public opinion in general. In reality, this support (apart from agriculture, a question that will not be discussed here) is too insufficient to permit any catching up; but, even graver, it facilitates penetration by the generalized monopolies and so strengthens the tendency to unequal development through a greater opening of the economies involved. Further, this assistance aims to reinforce certain sub-national regions (for example Bavaria, Lombardy, and Catalonia) and thereby to weaken the capability of national states to resist the monopolies’ dictates."

The dork of cork said...

Get back to you later......watching the Ireland France rugby match.

Archer said...

To the one who goes by moniker The dork - a well earned, but quite insufficient handle - how exhausting it must be to act as a prophet without honor wherever you go. Tilting at windmills so fruitlessly is no way to go through life, and, yet, there you are.

I can't help but feel that on some (not so) unconscious level achieving this (fruitless) condition is, in fact, your raison d'etre. After all, why would someone with such a fervently held view systematically undermine that view with what is, all things taken into account, a repellent presentation? I offer the following sincerely and advisedly: You are good at what you do.

The dork of cork said...

Why is it repellent , pray tell ?
Looks to me you are not attacking the ball but the man.
Its not a problem for me as I don't think I have a ego......but do go on - I am always up for a exchange of bile.

Steve said...

Dork, whatever you are smoking, stop it.

The dork of cork said...

But but but THE WALLS..........
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EHbDWJzUmxo

Michael dV said...

wait...France has a Rugby team?
...the end is near!
Don't they know they could get hurt?

Archer said...

Why is it repellent , pray tell ? Looks to me you are not attacking the ball but the man.

I'm so glad you asked, though I confess I feel some measure of pity for you that a.) you have no clue, or b.) would like to appear as if you had no clue.

In no order of importance, your presentation is repellent because of your poor writing ability, your stupefying redundancy, and your unwillingness to respect the blog's purpose or perspective.

You have displayed these tendencies time and time again over the years. Your presentation is nothing if not consistent, consistently off putting. The ratio of value per words spilled from your staggeringly repetitious electronic quill is infinitesimally small.

I can well imagine that you would like to have it be that this is personal, and, on some level, it is. Anyone who engages the way you do is revealing something unflattering about oneself. That said, your ball has substantially less air in it than your supposedly non existent ego would like to think.


Alex in Montana said...

Dork of Cork,

If you are Irish you will soon be praying to Allah 5 times a day the way you guys are trying to match the rest of Europe in importing Muslims. Better rename your son Mohammed and get on with it. Then we just have to listen to you endlessly reciting Ayah and Sura from the Obama's favorite book.

Canadarob said...

Let me put this bluntly dork, no one gives a shit about the links you post. No one is looking them up

The dork of cork said...

Dear god , protect me from white (new) Americans
Yee guys are so one dimensional , its impossible to connect with such people.
Give me Malcolm x or dieudonne anytime.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=74_pFXwRgCE




udonne any time.

The dork of cork said...

Just to add
Local masonry gives you such a wonderful framework
Guys from Montana like to talk out of their sphincter .
They arrive over from the Beara peninsula digging copper or some such and they think they have a foothold on the truth.


Its so funny.
The world is much stranger then you care or want to imagine.
Remain in your little so for table box.
I am sure your illusions are nice and cosy.

The dork of cork said...

Correction
"Remain in your little box"

The dork of cork said...

Want to know what the "the real west " is thinking. ?

Explosions are beginning to go off in millions of little euro heads.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m5egcXrSGQY

Jim Okefenokee said...

Dork of Cork,

the fact that you appear to like Herzog and rugby raises you 50 points in my estimation. You are now -250. What follows is cruel for an Irishman but you force me to do it.

Galway Bay sung by Johnny Cash

I implore you to cease and desist!

The dork of cork said...

Do you know what's so fucking sad - none of yee are attacking my points.
Bland attacks on the person do not count.
I really want yee guys to engage but sadly yee are incapable of free expression.
Like well controlled little mice yee are, worried what other rats may think of you.

The dork of cork said...

And no I don't like modern rugby.
I hate the professional game and all it stands for.
I simply watch it out of old habit rather then anything else.

The dork of cork said...

As for Herzog - he was fully aware of the madness that is capitalism and hated it.
But he was compelled to engage with despite himself
I mean Jesus lads --fitzcarraldo. !!!!!!!
There at the edge of the capitalistic frontier its dark light shines brightest.

tEON said...

By special arrangement, a reading from Carnac the Magnificent

Very shortly, what will Evil Gary, Grumps and The Dork have in common?

The dork of cork said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-PAsYkrEwjM

The euro dream / nightmare.

Sam said...

"It was not because the banks wanted to increase their loan books that they drove lending standards into the gutter creating Subprime and all kinds of other problems. It was because they could offload that risk, sell it to someone else, and make a tidy commission in the process."

There was also tremendous pressure to come up with debts to sell so that "savers" could earn a yield and political pressure to let the lower classes get in on the home ownership wealth train. Like most things in life the circumstances generated a non preventable situation and outcome. A glut of savings demanded new investments and an easy money political crowd demanded more lending. Bankers came up with the only solution that would satisfy the foaming at the mouth mobs making demands on them.

It can sometimes feel like the world can go in thousands of different directions tomorrow morning all depending on the choices of man. However more and more often when I look back at things I see that there were often no real choices at all. We call 2008 a financial crisis so that it sounds like something that happened because of bad choices and grave errors. I don't think so. This system has an expiration date that no man's choices can prevent.

Edwardo said...

Yes, Dan, the thirty four year old trend in rates is coming (has come) to a close. The mother of all inverted H&S- see the monthly chart on the $TNX- is alive and well. Summary: Private support for U.S. government debt is on borrowed time.

Woland said...

bis.org Feb. 12, 2015
Working Papers
"Why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic
growth?"

Stephen G. Cecchetti and Enise Kharroubi

Edwardo said...

If one really wants to see the textbook inverse H&S $TNX chart properly pull up a quarterly chart with the MACD.

KnallGold said...

@Sam: "systems expiration date", yeah, kicking the can was so good until the can hit the wall.

@jojo: "holding cash or Gold costing the same to hold", yes but we aren't there yet. Right now it's "holding cash costs less than negative yielding instruments".

There was a report about Swiss pension funds starting to hoard cash, yes, paper notes! I guess it must be more than just millions and there are businesses providing the service.

Holding pallets of money. Maybe it will get apparent that pallets of Gold are the same thing but with better "fire protection". Although Gold is volatile and otoh 1 sFr. is always 1 sFr.. At least in "reference point money" thinking ;-)

John said...

@ KnallGold

Regarding your notice that certain Swiss entities have begun stacking pallets of currency notes....I am reminded that during the glory days of the Columbian drug lords the richest of these being the late Pablo Escobar who was rumored to be worth some $30 Billion and was possibly the then richest person on the planet; it was alleged that said cartel had warehoused so many billions of US currency that the annual loss of currency to rats eating the notes was believed to be as much as $1 Billion per annum. Obviously they had not then discovered the virtues of saving in gold.

Brady said...

http://fofoa.blogspot.ca/2010/02/greece-is-word.html

it's amazing; the more I go back & re-read Fofoa's past posts, the better they are - each and every time.

queckshep said...

The following might sound familiar to some of us. :-)

William White (B.I.S. Monetary and Economic Department 1995-2008), was interviewed by Finanz und Wirtschaft on 27 January, 2015.
http://www.fuw.ch/article/why-we-need-an-international-monetary-system/

He discussed the shortcomings of the current international monetary "Non-System".
Here's an excerpt:
"First, there is no automatic adjustment mechanism to stop current account imbalances from
becoming so large that they trigger a serious foreign exchange rate crisis.
....
We need to renew the search for the Holy Grail of an efficient and stable International
Monetary System."

The dork of cork said...

Willie can search for a stable international world system all he wants but his quest will be fruitless.
Stability first comes from the foundations.
European society and all societies orbits around village life.
However we have a little problem..........it no longer exists.

Archer said...

Yet the village idiot remains.

Canadarob said...

Dork, no one is arguing your points because you don't have any and you don't make any sence. Believe me, its not because you are on to something.

anand srivastava said...

Internet is a place for vandals with no particular talent. And this one cannot even be a bad troll.

Bjorn said...

I second Canadarobs comment.

@Dork
Consider starting your own blog. No one minds if you spam your own blog.

Jim Okefenokee said...

Now this is what I call a rant!

(albeit one with structure, coherence etc. Scroll down from video for transcript of what he says).

One Bad Adder said...

The Long and the Short of it :- http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX:$IRX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79951864240
This Chart identifies the increasing stress in the Yield-curve. We're currently seeing a relaxation of "meddling" at the Long-end ...which is giving rise to the uppity ratio.

The Here 'n Now beckons!

KnallGold said...

IMF calls for $ alternative. (yeah SDR). I consider this one of those robostories popping up from time to time. No need to read the article, the BMG article dating 10. Feb. 2015 was actually written in 2011.

http://bmgbullionbars.com/imf-calls-dollar-alternative/

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/

Aside that, bundle a bunch of crap, put lipstick on it and sell it to the public, isn't that standard operating procedure of Wall Street?

Calculations with SDR's are already possible as we have computers today...

The dork of cork said...

Yes , no doubt a fool.
But in times past the fool was given licence to speak the truth.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Nwysi0MMX54






Pat said...

If I want to read Irish stream of consciousness gibberish that I don't understand I'll give Ulysses one more try. Begone O dorkish sprite, hie ye back to the hinterlands where no interwebs penetrate and climb back into your cups.

tEON said...

I don't believe that the 'Behavioral Economics' fibbing about the rebound of the economy will alter the underlying feeling that things are deteriorating in the US (or that it's not just the rest of the world). It may restrain the effects but it cannot stop it. And by stemming the tide to some degree may only be creating a much larger wave.
I first saw THIS CNBC piece, then simlar on Fox with The CEO and Chairman of Gallup, Jim Clifton from a few days ago. A few quotes:
"The (official) Unemployment number is getting so messy - the most important (economic) metric - how many people are working - really mixes part-time and full-time numbers.
"The number of Full-Time jobs as a percent of the total population is the lowest its ever been"
"The more people who 'drop out' - the better the official (unemployment) numbers get"
Americans are not feeling something that doesn't remotely reflect what they are being told, and why the middle class has been hollowed out.
...Right now its (unemployment numbers) are headed in the wrong direction.
The Full-time jobs number is the worst it's been in 30-years

vizeet srivastava said...

I think Karl Marx never said earnings of rich should be distributed to poor and poor need not work. His philosophy seemed more closer to cooperatives than communism or socialism.

The dork of cork said...

Ehh Pat - I hate to break this to you to now.......but the William shakes fellow.....
Better sit down for this.
He was English and a Saxon to boot !!!!!!

He was no doubt constrained by the fascist state he was operating within.
He therefore became the greatest Tudor political propagandist of all time so as to earn a shilling that was concentrated in London during his lifetime.
Even so much truth remains within.

But look at his life trajectory.....
He improved his family lifestyle after they lost all of their independent capital.
His mothers final years was lived as a suburbanite in Stratford on Avon and not as a rich peasant.
Once you understand that capitalism is a concentration experiment rather then anything to do with free enterprise then you will start putting your feet on the path of true knowledge.

Alas , I don't hold out much hope for you.



DP said...

.

The dork of cork said...

Richard Werner speaks.........in Winchester and not London.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zIkk7AfYymg



Pat said...

Hate to break it to you but Ulysses was written by James Joyce , boyo. Are you sure you're Irish?

Woland said...

http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/02/04/
Expert: Oil Price Wars.....

KnallGold said...

Evolution since the big bang is a concentration process...the final destination of the Universe a cold entropic hell. Amen.

Guess I more or less know what you mean dork but the terrible signal to noise ratio makes it impossible for us to follow, let alone to respond.

Your main driver is overwhelmingly emotional and not the random facts,views or concepts intertwined, believe me! Please accept that and try to overcome it before you return.


The dork of cork said...

@Knallgold
Social creditors believe we live in a glasshouse and not a jungle.
Your remarks about evolution therefore hold no water in this context.
The dynamics of usury create a artificial construct which is now so detached from reality (the home and the hearth) that it is breaking down because of its own absurd internal contradictions.

ein anderer said...

Brady,

the more I go back & re-read Fofoa's past posts, the better they are - each and every time

That’s true indeed, and that’s true for every text with substantive depth …

tEON said...

Thanks Woland,
I believe the actual link is here:
http://russia-insider.com/ru/2015/02/04/3126
Investors were borrowing physical oil, which made them feel safe, and knew that the oil companies would eventually repurchase the physical oil from them in due time. With the fall of the price of oil, all of this purely investment demand vanished, and the price dropped further. One sees something similar in the gold market, where only 10 percent of gold transactions involve the transfer of ownership of actual gold. The other 90 percent are simply paper bets on the price of gold, but which never result in the purchase or sale of actual gold.
I also found some of the comments interesting:
Actually the seeds of destruction of the US empire were sown many years ago.
President Johnson spent so much money bombing Vietnam that the US had to sell its gold reserves, to prop up the dollar(London Gold pool).
They only stopped selling gold when they ran out of pure gold. They tried to sell the melted down gold coins that Roosevelt seized, but because of the debasement the London Metal exchanged refused.
So Nixon put the US dollar on the oil standard and got the world to only accept US dollars for oil purchases.
The US makes $1 billion dollars a day in money changing fees alone, and most of the Gulf oil money remains in the US.
The US thought they could destroy Russia the same way they destroyed the Soviet Union, by crashing oil prices.
But the Russians, unlike the Americans learn from their mistakes.
The US has shot itself in the head, which is why they need a war, they need to steal some money in a hurry

Woland said...

The Vineyard of the Saker
Vineyard of the Saker White Paper: "The China Russia Double
Helix" Dec.22, 2014 (sidebar: 2014 posts) by: Larchmonter
445 ( 22p. long )

fftastic said...

Concerning Varufakis:
Now I definitely put my money on SPLIT!
(from 2011!!!)
and
confirmed 2015!

ein anderer said...

fftastic,
impressive interviews! Did not know for example that we (Germany) are forcing Greece to buy those silly weapons. What a shame.

ein anderer said...

Greece, go your own way!

anand srivastava said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ein anderer said...

SPIEGEL confirms Yanis Varoufakis: 77% of European financial help (in total: 207bn.) was a support of the financial industry.

KnallGold said...

The libertarian Marxist Varoufakis "emphasizes the Marxist belief in the ability of the working class to forge its own destiny without the need of a financial industry to mediate or aid its liberation".

"..emphasizing the Marxist belief in the ability of the working class to forge its own destiny without the need for a revolutionary party or state to mediate or aid its liberation.." Wiki entry for libmarx.

On the market front, noticing that $Bonds and $POG are down, hmm.

Tom R said...

What sort of impact is this having on the trade deficit, and therefore the forex markets?

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-report-stunning-pictures-america-s-supply-chain-is-in-shutdown--could-derail-the-economy-completely-.aspx?article=6396149678H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Mac+Slavo

The dork of cork said...

A pilgrim if St Michael speaks.....

Give the man a chance.
Unlike this Dork he is a reasoned and quiet but forceful man.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LJ_mEOq7Ujw

And yes I have been to Canigou many times.

Random Man said...

Does anybody else think this is getting old?

I mean, at some point the laws of nature have to kick in. At some point there has to be a move to freegold or an end to the present infinite kick the can down the road in which there is no catharsis for anyone.

What is your timeframe, honestly? Does anybody have an answer. For me personally I would say it's around 5 years or so, conveniently I turn 40 in 2020. At that point I would say it wasn't worth it, even if I benefit.

You can't just be glib and say "I and my children and grandchildren will accumulate pieces of physical gold even if they never revalue".

44 years since the Nixon shock. 18 years post Another. 7 years post financial crisis. Approaching 4 years since gold dollar peak. Approaching 2 years since crash of 2013.
And no freegold.
In historical terms that isn't that long, but for an actual human lifespan (the limited amount of time that we have) it is a long time to wait and in the meantime, millions of other people made out with fiat profits, partied, and accumulated real tangible wealth beyond the dreams of avarice.

M said...

Random man

Yeah it's getting awfully old. Peter Schiff is saying now that it will likely be in less then 5 years. First he thought and most rational ppl thought it would be in Obama's first term. Then he figured in his 2nd term. It would be ideal for it to happen under Obama but who knows. The financial crisis did happen at the tail end of Bushs term. Maybe there will be a repeat.

M said...

And from 9/11 till the financial crisis was 7 years. It's now been 7 years since the financial crisis. A Bear Sterns event this coming spring would be nice..

ein anderer said...

Random,
take FOFOA’S conservative advice:
Put aside in Gold 5% of your wealth.
After revaluation you may have lost a maximum of 95% (if the crash destroys all of your wealth).
Yet Gold will have risen fifty fold. Means: Your wealth will have risen by 250%.
Quite a nice scenario w/o much »investment«, or?

One Bad Adder said...

@Random: - been waiting 17Yr's already mate ...and I'm pretty sure it'll be next week:-)

DP said...

Same as last week! :-)

Que cera, cera.

Of course, one could party AND accumulate real tangible wealth, as EA suggests.

ein anderer said...

… or one can be cautious, holding the cash needed for financing the next N* years ;)

*According to one’s understanding**.

**What is your number, Mr or Ms Wise***?

***Where are you, Mr or Ms Wise?

DP said...

Dr. Gold

Can't love you right until the cure is here

Pat said...

Has been very old for some time, seeing the citizens of earth suffer from the extend and pretend. I may not like the next "system" but I truly despise this one- I'll take my chances. As for FG, the best advice ever from this blog was save as much gold as you understand, but far more importantly, then fuggadedaboutit- live and enjoy your life as tomorrow is not promised. The lens provided here allows me to see world events unfold in a way I could not have seen otherwise, and that's why I come here. FG timing cant be soon enough, but not for whatever it may do for me personally. I like all of you am just tired of all the unhealthiness in the world.

The dork of cork said...

"I hear you are looking for answers"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O0K_ahjmJuc

tEON said...

Perfectly stated Pat - my sentiments exactly. Thanks.

Roacheforque said...

Random,
You should rack up debt and live like a king for as much and as long as your credit rating allows. Since the current system is designed to "save the debt" at any cost, you'll be doing your part on that side of the trade from your next McMansion. Then on the other side of the trade, if and when the debt is allowed to finally default, you'll have some gold to balance the Hedge.
Capice?

Michael dV said...

By now most regulars understand that 'it' could have already happened. We can't trust any data and the gold trade is 'not a fish bowl'.
All we can really know is that the system is unhealthy and new patches are being invented every week.
Things could come apart because of Greece, the BRICS, gold, inflation and other political events. These times are not normal!
I'm tired of waiting too. Having the FG perspective helps me maintain sanity and provides a roadmap for action.
As long as the problems of the world can be fixed by 'more money' the Fed can do that. When that fix fails we will only be moments away.

Woland said...

Andy Haldane
bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2015/
speech 797.pdf
H/T VtC

DP said...

Haldane link

BTW: Not only is not all that can be counted, counted. But not all that counts, is countable.

DP said...

social capital (such as cooperation and trust)

e.g: money

DP said...

Although hard to quantify, this[the accumulation of 'social capital'] too is likely to have provided a tailwind to growth in the modern era.

Ya think?

… Aaaannnnd thennnn....?

The dork of cork said...

Until you bridge the gap between prices and income yee guys will remain stuck inside a fake filmset..

DP said...

The Haves wait impatiently for The Have-nots to come back and buy ever-more of what they are selling.

But… Hello?
They are The Have-nots?
… Bueller?

Dante_Eu said...

OBA, That has to be a helluva lot of charts! ;-) I still don't understand a single one you linked so far. :-)

Imagine FOFOA ca. 2025: "The Debtors and the Savers XXVI, Revisited" :-)

Random Man said...

Roacheforque, possibly, but there are still consequences to debt. The ongoing payments, the stain on your record associated with default which impacts many parts of your life, which gold cannot help etc. And as far as people living large I'm mainly referring to financiers and a few corporations who trade on leverage and make big gains and then socialize the losses through bailouts and inflation. I'm not referring to your average middle class debt slave who doesn't have the capacity. But, I take your point.

See it's a question of timing, isn't it. Most here have prepared already, I would wager. But you have prepared for something that hasn't happened.

I myself have already lost with freegold. I've reduced my expenses, I diligently saved in gold, and with that I've noticed a reduction in my standard of living, in my flexibility, and, believe it or not, in my standing amongst family members and peers, who do not understand my thinking and are simply continuing on with life as usual.

If freegold, all of that would be reversed. I would gain considerably and be proven right.

As far as 5%, sure, you'll gain some, but really, what type of commitment does that show? Little, in my opinion. Anybody can place 5% of their wealth in an asset or another, it proves nothing.

I have personally acted based on the writings and teachings of Another/FOA/FOFOA, and have lost.

Do any of you want to come out and admit any of that?

jojo said...

"But you have prepared for something that hasn't happened."

Not me. I am and have been preparing for something that MIGHT happen. In fact, I think there's a strong chance it will happen but nothing is for sure, especially the future.

In preparing for this possibility, I also accomplish the feat of attaining a sound financial position for the current paradigm.
I see this as win win.

For fun in the meantime, there's an awesome drama going on but you need the right lens to enjoy.
In fact, to even see it, you need the right lens.

My suggestion is keep reading this blog. Keep peeling that onion.

jojo said...

ohhh...geez, I missed this part:

"I have personally acted based on the writings and teachings of Another/FOA/FOFOA, and have lost."

Yes, definitely keep reading. You won't find too many that would agree with above. I certainly don't. No way.

I was going to ask, what have you lost, but i'm positive it would be along the lines of "the awesome trades" you could have, would have done, if only....yada yada yada....

Sure, hindsight empowers one to think, gee I could have made X and done Y but, that misses a huge point of this blog.

Motley Fool said...

Random Man

As you say, it is a question of timing.

Living more frugally I do not see as a bad thing personally. And frankly my standing among family or peers mean nothing to me next to my own convictions.

I understand the frustration, and none here can offer what you would like, what we all would like, an exact timeframe.

At worst I have had some losses ito opportunity cost, and sure, if I liquidate my position now and move into the stock market I may be able to make some gains, and may be able to require a better position, but that is also a matter of timing, and way more risk than I care to take.

I have no regrets about my choices, and would make them again, knowing that the future remains always unpredictable.

TF

Dante_Eu said...

Personally I would have much more crap that I really do not need if I haven't bought gold. Me and my brothers have emptied a big basement, several times, everything been thrown away. Back in the day (90ties), TV-Shop was very popular, especially gym equipment. We could have opened a topnotch fitness studio with all the crap we bought!

Anyway, the only thing I regret is not starting earlier (late 90ties like OBA ;-)). In late 90ties I was stacking US$...Yes, physical greenbacks in a safe deposit box. One thing I learned about stocks and currencies is when you read that you should sell you buy. When you read that you should buy you sell. Just like George, do the opposite!

No such worries with gold though. If I didn't know about gold, I would definitely do the opposite. :-)

ampmfix said...

Please let me know about the flaws in this thought experiment? Thanks.
A: Can Freegold re-balance and improve the world economy as it is today, and avoid a possibly imminent disastrous world war?
B: Is there in the world a group of highly placed Giants (Rothschilds, Rockefeller, whatevers, etc…) that know about the benefits of Freegold and can act to force it to happen?

Firstly, if B is true and Freegold has not been forced by them yet, and they don’t want a war, then they estimate that Freegold is not a viable option, or maybe it is around the corner (here you go, a timeline).
So, if they exist, Freegold is not viable and will not happen, or is about to happen, as things stand now…

Secondly, if indeed A is true and Freegold is a viable option, like we believe here, then that group of people, as defined, doesn’t really exist, or they are not aware of it, which seems impossible to me (is this a flaw in the thought experiment?).
Maybe it is time the Freegold message gets some publicity? Anything to loose? Or gain?
In the past it has been said here that people should come on their own curiosity and learn it the hard way, which I agree with, since the motivations are your own, and the effort is also building your brain up. Maybe things should change now because of the imminency of a world war? I don’t know…
Like tweeting Varoufakis…? I bet he would be at least interested, or not?
But the timeline is horrible, those guys must not be sleeping much right now…, maybe for next time, if there is one.
Cheers mates.

One Bad Adder said...

Dante: - Several years ago, I came to the (personal) realisation that the value of Gold will only be revealed in a Phoenix-like fashion - and to "evaluate" it in the current fiat context simply doesn't cut the Mustard.
The problems plagueing the current system certainly aren't Golds doing, so I try to understand what in fact may cause this system to implode.
Things "seem" to be generally following my prognosis BTW .....;-)

ampmfix said...

a flaw: maybe the Giants don't want to force it, it has to happen by "spontaneous generation" (maybe another condition to avoid war), which would make FG subject to the odds, like a lottery... But no, I know now, it has to be made to look like spontaneous, but has to be directed, at least one switch has to be thrown manually...

Sam said...

FOFOA has written extensively on "wealth" though most of it was long ago and possibly not fresh in some of minds. Understanding the concept of real wealth, as seen through the freegold lens, is key to understanding what it is you have and don't have. You either have physical stuff in your possession or you are lending your wealth to the collective in the hopes that they will pay you back with interest some time in the future. For decades western thinkers have taught us that the prudent thing to do with our savings is the latter. Despite the fact that forgoing your physical wealth for paper promises doesn't really pay for most, there is sufficient propaganda to make those that don't play along in the system feel like they are missing out on countless opportunities.

I've spent pretty much all my time understanding the "will" and almost none trying to guess the "when." I don't need inside information or a sign from the elites to understand the logical concept of wealth. Those that want to lend their capital to the collective are welcome to do so though sadly I believe 99% of them don't understand that this is what they are doing. I on the other hand will be holding my wealth in physical form, thanks to this blog, for the rest of my life.

queckshep said...

ampmfix, given the current state of our global economy, do you really think world war would be a solution?
Even if the so called 'banksters' and 'globalist elites' could convince us that Putin is the new Hitler and an imminent threat to humanity, how long would it take for China to react? For instance by unpegging their currency and/or dumping a small amount of 4T U$ treasuries.
Just like Peak exorbitant privilege, Peak gold production seems to be a fact nowadays. Unless you can convince a few billion people that fiat paper is as good as gold, I can't see a lot more ways to delay the unevitable and long overdue transition into FG. Btw, for those interested i made a small overview from the ECB's website on the CBGA. Notice any difference to previous years? :-)

http://oi60.tinypic.com/afd7x4.jpg

One Bad Adder said...

Random: - You're fortunate to be Time-rich ie: your particular Timeline (barring misfortune) has quite a ways to run.
Mine OTOH, and I'd imagine the bulk of those here, are more akin to Time-poor.
I too have "lost" significant opportunities over the last decade and a half, nothing whatsoever to do with Gold or it's acquisition / price.

Enjoy your Time-wealth while you can ...and try also to enjoy the Timelessness of your Gold.

Nick said...

"As far as 5%, sure, you'll gain some, but really, what type of commitment does that show? Little, in my opinion. Anybody can place 5% of their wealth in an asset or another, it proves nothing."

Random,

FOFOA has stated before to buy only so much as you understand. This includes understanding Freegold's inevitability, even though its timing can't be predicted (all while being long overdue!)

FOFOA has also stated how the true reward (not buying gold, but truly understanding) is the peace of mind one achieves. This is the golden ticket.

As for 5%... if you save in gold only 5%, you will be ahead once Freegold arrives as opposed to having lost everything if you chose 0%. Quite a difference in outcomes for very little opportunity cost! Find a middle ground that you are comfortable with and enjoy your life in the present!

Ken_C said...

Random -- "lost"??? every ounce of gold I have ever bought is still one ounce. Did your ounces somehow become 1/2 ounces?

Dim said...

A little analysis on TIC data, regarding foreign official support vs non official [private] support:

If you subtract Foreign Official from Grand Total you get Private (willy nilly) support. If you then divide Private support by Grand Total, it yields the percentage of Private support. I plotted this percentage out over time since 2005 and notice very distinct collapses at certain intervals (when % collapses I think it means the Official sector is ‘taking up the slack’). Since 2005, the collapse has occurred at 38.0% (May 2006), 34.2% (May 2007), 33.5% (May 2008), 32.3% (May 2009), 32.8% (May 2010) and 28.5% (May 2011). Since May 2011, the % has risen steadily to 33.2% which seems to be a salient area during the past decade.

Can anyone speculate on why this collapse of private sector support/boost of Official sector support always happened in May?

Also, we may be getting close to some action given the relatively high proportion of private sector support and relatively high USDX.

Stu Ungar said...

Ken he's referring to purchasing power, the only thing that matters in the long run.

confederate miner said...

If all you Gold bugs are tired of waiting then pull the trigger. Yep it's up to you. If all the gold bugs would even trade half their gold for silver at the current gold silver ratio it would be over tomorrow. Silver is the Achilles heel!

Mr orange said...

I'm surprised no one on here has referenced kyle bass as the free gold model. His overall thesis fits fofoa. Peter schiff is so 2008 2009 fofoa took the reins in 2010 officially and hasn't looked back. Mr bass refers to trouble in japan in his many videos as seen right on youtube, the one on bloomberg about japan and gold and housing refers to a bet paying 300 to 400 times, he refers to a one time denouement as fofoa does in his chicago video with goolsbee that everyone will go to work the next day broker. Mr bass was aso interviewed on his ranch saying just a little while ago that the orthodoxy economically speaking would change in about 18 months. He also refers to the end of the 70 year debt super cycle which I believe to be free gold as well which also lines up for me on a 80 year timeline with green spans once in a century event. I think schiff has a line he can't cross, fofoa is a genius and mr bass has backed that up,,,,,japan will cause freehold right, correct me if I'm wrong because there are people a lot smarter then me,,,,fofoa always said it had to be fair a one time deal so the morning after bass says treasurys go negative and gold gets a bid, they raise rates from there to some meaningless low level and gold stays high really high from there,,,,,I think it's soon I think we are now within weeks or days ,,,,I am also a regular cnbc watcher I see right thru the bs santelli recently slipped another qe in March and adami on fast money has been hinting at an overnight event as well central bank event,,,,,,,there has also been somebody posting under the name.....it's a mystery.....on goldseek website he.she is on to something with the swiss peg in 2011...thank you fofoa for your work you may have saved my life

ampmfix said...

Thanks queckshep, I don't think war is a solution, but escalations can easily lead to it. There are tensions solely because of economic reasons. So if the economies get healthier the specter of war recedes.
My huge problem is understanding why nobody talks about Freegold outside of here. It is impossible that the elites don't know about it, if it is such a serious alternative. Varoufakis, for example, should know! and the QoE and the Pope, etc... And if they don't, why not showing them? are we really confident or what? If you discovered an amazing mathematical proof would you keep it to yourself?
I don't have any problems with most of Freegold theory but I do with how will it come about, and who will be behind.

queckshep said...

ampmfix, it's not about proof or who's the master behind the curtains. People generally don't want proof, they want something that works and is reliable. How many seek answers as to why exactly it is the engine starts every time they turn the key? Sometimes things happen naturally.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYO3tOqDISE
Sure it would be convenient to know the exact moment it will happen, but that's not how life works. Consider this. Let's assume you have a brilliant business idea and that you're convinced of it's feasability, you never know what amount of money you will make and how successful you will be until you try. I remember the uncertainty and excitement back in the day when I passed a note to the girl I liked in the classroom, not knowing if or when an answer would follow. If everything were predictable, life would be rather boring.
FOFOA provides a lot of the answers you seek, it's a long journey to read everything, but the reward is well worth it. A while back the PM dealer told me that a client was angry because the €POG was down at the time the client collected his coins. It made me realise the weight on FOFOA's shoulders and how difficult it must be to absorb the amount of emotional reactions he gets when it comes to financial matters. In the end you have to assume the consequences of your actions....after all you can't blame the hotplate for getting burned if you put your hand on it.

ampmfix said...

queckshep, I have read extensively this blog. My doubts are philosophical and I want to get an answer some day, I am not convinced at the releasing mechanism. Nobody is arguing logically this issue.
Back to my cave.

Michael dV said...

mr orange
it seems everyone has a slightly different way of expressing how bad things are and will get.
Bass is focused on bonds. He seems to have the usual hyperinflationist opinion of real things. I have not heard him point specifically to gold as the way the planet can recapitalize.
I'm certain all critical thinkers, given enough time and access to the same data would come to the same conclusions…..ie Fofoa's POV.

Canadarob said...

After reading this blog it has become so damn obvious how the world is recapitalized. There's no other way. Its so clear. When "economists" talk about deflation or other "end" games, I'm always like, "ok , sure, deflation, then what?" OBVIOUSLY deflation can't be an end. It doesn't solve anything.

Mr orange said...

Michael DV,,,,,

I think bass free gold opinion is hiding behind the japan bond front, mr bass is a physical gold guy if you don't want to listen to his hours of speaking at america catalyst conferences or in chicago just pull up these two short but sweet 2 minute videos on youtube
Bass obama kill the dollar
Bass u of texas billion dollars in physical gold

He basically says the same as fofoa the gold futures market freezes, paper gold in fofoa terms, and we have a real price discovery,,,,,

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