Friday, May 29, 2009

Up Day Open Forum


SatyaPranava said...

two simple things that are interesting:

1st, the obvious, gold is going up only slightly more than the dollar is falling. not a terribly strong sign. Gold is actually falling in re: to many other currencies.

2nd. gold seems not to have the big hammer during the NY COMEX hours this past week (ironically). Does this portend a switch by those running the comex? or rather, simply shorts covering in combination with and people covering their dollar tuchuses?

are there other more interesting dynamics than these two re: the up days this week.

at the very least, I'm looking forward to seeing the price of gold solidly close above the $1030 mark. then things should get very interesting.

Anonymous said...

@ Ender : About the euro >>>

I'm holding the euro for the simple reason that its internal (inside EU) & external (outside EU) purchasing power remains relatively stable for the single decade that the currency exists.

The reason why I think that the euro will continue to be my currency préféré in the future is the ECB's goldmetal freegold wealth reserve concept.

Euroland's debt-driven political economy is NOT that much better than the dollar's governance ! But the euro's political styling appeals increasingly to other economic blocks. Not in the least because of the evolving freegold concept.

I don't compare the euro-dollar(or other currencies) exchange rate(s). I simply look at the euro's double purchasing power. How good/bad is the euro as a temporary store of purchasing power.

Will euro expansion, inside/outside Euroland, walk hand in hand with the expanding purchasing power of the goldmetal reserves of the ESCBs !? That's why I'm only watching the euro-goldprice.

I've concluded that once all the CBs that want to copy the ECB's freegold (MTM) concept have sufficant goldmetal in reserve,...freegold can gradually become free-er in function with the responsible monetary expansion.

FOFOA said...

Hello Prana,

The main stream in this river is the dollar. It is heading for a waterfall. The others swirl like turbulent eddies near the banks of the river.

The dollar clearly has a grip on gold, like a duck in the water. But don't doubt that the bird will fly away before going over the cliff.

2nd. They have a lot on their plates right now. Like a man desperately swimming against the current trying to avoid the waterfall.

There are so many dynamics at play right now it is literally IMPOSSIBLE to keep track of them all. The only thing to do is climb the mountain and watch from a distance. The details may be impossibly complex, but the big picture is remarkably simple.

Re: "the price of gold solidly close above the $1030 mark", Jim Sinclair's Thoughts...


FOFOA said...

PPT wants an Up Day too...

Imagine the phone call. And who is on the other end...

15:53 EDT

"Don't you dare let it close below 8500. He will NOT be happy."

"Okay, but I need some more money... fast!"

"Hold on.... okay, look at your screen."

"Got it, bye."


Check out the spike at the end of the day.

Dow closes at 8500.33. Up 96.53. Up 50.17 in the last 5 minutes!

On Zero Hedge:

"As for today's market close, with a literally parabolic jump in the last minute of trading, if anyone still thinks this market trades based on anything resembling normal behavior... I have some BBB+ rated CMBS to sell to you at par.

So as essentially no institutional or retail clients are trading any more, it is just a few desperate computers trying to front run each other. And, of course, for the biggest beneficiary of this PT principal bonanza, look no further than the chart below.
[It's Goldman Sachs btw, in case you didn't know]

Going back to today's ridiculous close, the chart below shows it all: the complete tape painting volume spike at the very end of the day speaks for itself. And as computers now simply issue forced stock recall orders to each other, painting the tape wet with manipulative intent and volume spikes into the last 20 minutes of trading every day, their human creators are left on the sidelines, trying to outshout each other as to the reason for why the market keeps rising while the economy keeps tumbling."

Anonymous said...

@ FOFOA : The PPT and the entire organization (regime) behind it >>>

The " virtualization " of the entire $-FI has reached such a state that I can't find the right superlatives anymore to describe it.

But this is exactly the kind of catastrophic evolution that inevitably leads to freegold.

Today (this decade) we experience a " London Gold Pool ", bis !

We are the happy few that are privileged to realize this,...thanks to A/FOA's deep insights in tempore non suspecto.

" Normal behavior " : There is nothing left of the free market (market !) anymore.

Question : Any thoughts on the gold friday fenomenon ? Why is it that the goldprice's major moves happen for 90% on fridays ?

Anonymous said...

Sinclair/Norcini : Monthly close $-goldprice charts !!!

Is the present goldprice top-pattern analog with the one of 1980 ...or the one of '78/'79 ???

Are we counting down for parabolic launch (cfr. 1980 top) or goldprice crash ???

Can we call M. Armstrong (june '09) ?

Please, have a close look at both charts (infla adjusted)...and comment.
Can someone produce a logaritmic chart with these monthly closing prices ?

FOFOA said...


I do not have charting skillz. Perhaps someone else here does. But I do have a good eye. It looks EXACTLY like '78/'79 and NOTHING like '80... if I were to be so bold as to voice my opinion.

Cocktail anyone?


Anonymous said...

$-Bond markets !!! - ???

Snip :

If Ben Bernanke fails to drastically increase the Fed's purchases of bonds, another vortex of asset destruction is a near certainty, as the primary dealers will exert mindblowing pressure on the managers of other assets to move those assets into bonds. Some of the movement is being triggered automatically thru asset allocation algorithms. Let me repeat: money IS not just moving into bonds now, it is POURING in. But…that money is not enough to soak up all the bonds the govt. is issuing.

>>> An enormous (astronomical) $-debt load needs roll-over !

Many prices (indexes) are now on critical (technical) crosspoints...with Geithner in China and the GCC abandoning its MU plan.

How can the entire world-FI be forced again into the astronomical $-DebtBubble ? How strong are the dissidents ?

Are the domino's shaking ? What about the xxx $-Trillions notional value (volume) of the derivatives ? The Big fire-insurance company that has to produce $-digits (hyper-inflate) because all houses are on fire...


FOFOA said...

$-Bond markets !!! - ???

Every time I read or hear the word "algorithm" with regard to Wall Street, something deep inside me chuckles. I realize how deeply deluded they all are thinking "there must be a solution". They learned NOTHING from LTCM.

The CERN LHC team is supposed to start playing God in July, recreating the Big Bang here on earth (right in your back yard!). However, the [algorithmic] team of Bernanke and Geithner may just beat them to the punch. You think they'll win a Nobel prize?


FOFOA said...

PPT & Gold -

There is no REASONABLE explanation for what we saw today other than the [continuing] attempt at a controlled demolition.

Even firefighters know they cannot put out a forest fire. They can only TRY to direct it away from the houses.

Anonymous said...

@ FOFOA : I do agree 100% with your conclusion.
That's also the reason why A/FOA's informative job came to an end.

Crisis phase-II (bonds) is on its way. Controlled demolition, indeed Sir FOFOA.

Reuters-snip :

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The global financial crisis may morph into a second, equally virulent phase where borrowing costs rise again, hobbling an embryonic economic recovery, debilitating cash-strapped banks, and punishing investors all over again.

Early warnings signs of this scenario include surging government bond yields, a slumping U.S. dollar, and the fading of the bear market rally in U.S. stocks.

Optimists hope that a fragile two-month rally in world stock markets, a rise in U.S. Treasury yields from record lows during the depths of the crisis in late 2008, and some less scary economic data all signal that a recovery is around the corner.

But gloomy analysts insist that thinking is delusional.

Anonymous said...

A thought...

If the markets were propped, and the timing of the crash conveniently coincided with a lucrative bond offer to the public, would that not channel the funds the US government seeks in? Could they fake the scenario to look like heros? A second crash where the government steps in to help those decimated... it seems so probable.

Anonymous said...

Great news from former President Bush guys... pretty soon the US will have killed all terrorists and peace will reign again.

Do people really buy this madness? Doesn't invading nations to destroy those you fear in earnest define terrorism?

Ender said...

@Anonymous (from @Ender above)

I am curious … is there someplace on the web where you have been writing for the last few years? I’ve looked, but didn’t find anything. Maybe I gave up too quickly. Or, did you just stumble upon FOFOA’s site? It’s kind of nice to be able to post anonymously in an uncensored environment. Hopefully, you will find a ‘name’ before too long.

“Will euro expansion, inside/outside Euroland, walk hand in hand with the expanding purchasing power of the goldmetal reserves of the ESCBs !? That's why I'm only watching the euro-goldprice.”

Am I interpreting you correctly, with the above statement, you might be saying that you’re expecting a “strong” Euro relative to gold? Where as all other currencies will try to mimic that layout - in order to gain strength against gold?

One day I do hope we have time to talk about fractional reserve gold banking and how it relates to the futures markets AND how it backs a currency. With all the bluffing that we’re seeing in the US markets, it will not be long before any reasonable person will be able to figure out that it’s ALL a scam.

Thank goodness for the internet. If that is taken away, hopefully, we’ll all be able to carry on view emails.

Good day.

FOFOA said...

Denninger bets that Friday's last minute spike was not "organic", but also not PPT. "Forced liquidation" he says as he shorts the market for a Monday move down (which he reserves the right to remove Sunday night in case he pusses out)...

What Was THAT? (Friday Market Close)

"There were 146,083 contracts traded in that one-minute period between 14:59 and 15:00 (Central); the next minute, when the real dislocation hit, traded 91,774 - after the cash market bell had rung.

The closing bell is usually busy. But this sort of volume is absolutely unheard of. To put it in perspective yesterday the same time recorded 26,540 contracts, and 36,642 the minute after...

For me to believe this was "organic", that is, this was an un-forced order, I have to believe that someone wanted to go home net long the equivalent of 5,000 /ES contracts into the weekend at a severely disadvantaged price. The market had been calm all day; if you wanted to buy 1,000 spoos (equivalent to 5,000 E-Minis) there was plenty of opportunity to do so all day long. This sort of market order was guaranteed to dislocate the market - so the buyer had to simply not give a damn what sort of price they got...

Look sharp - the sharks are in the water and you taste good.

Disclosure: Mildly short (~5% position) the broad market."

SatyaPranava said...

to FOFOA and Anonymous (Sinclair/Noricini).

I actually see (in the inflation-adjusted chart) a subtle head and shoulders (not too much in the shoulders) similar to what we have had the 15 mos or so. But that started in what looks to be 1974 and is broken in late 1978 (eyeballing it here). so that is a 5 year head and shoulders, versus our 1 year. Their's was also a lot deeper in terms of percentage (going from 800 - 400)
while ours has gone from ~1000 - ~700).

Thus, from strictly a simplistic technical standpoint alone, this rally should move up much less relative to the '70s.

from a fundamental standpoint, it should blow the 70s away.

If one further considers the sophistication of manipulation seen so ubiquitously these days relative to the 1970s, Sinclair/Alf/A/FOA's #s start to become much more realistic.


Anonymous said...

@ Ender : I prefer to remain anon.
So the reader of the text (thougths) is much more critical.

Euro & Gold : It took me quite some time before I really understood what Duisenberg was telling us. (The link between gold and currency being severed).

>>> The euro has only one ambition : Being stable in purchasing power (internal/external).

It is only the dollar (system) that always want to be (to pretend) as good as gold. $-Purchasing power is managed for stategic reasons and not for reasons of stability.

The $-system is condemed to govern the goldprice for making the dollar look strong.

The €-system wants to organize a free floating €-goldprice with absolutely no link with the euro.
The euro's goldreserves have a wealth reserve function. The euro doesn't want to hide it's well managed monetary expansion (inside/outside EU) with a freezing goldprice. On the contrary : When one's gold reserve increases in purchasing power without affecting the purchasing power of the are increasing your wealth.

€-Gold is not functioning as a hedge against currency weakness !

That is what Duisenberg meant with severing that link between gold & currency.


Anonymous said...

@ Prana :

The manipulative interventions are on an astronomical scale from any point of view and in every facet of the financial economy !

This is a very clear sign that major (dramatic) changes are sooner rather than later.

Anonymous said...

China needs to acquire more gold !

The re-distribution of CB-gold reserves, that started in 1999/2001, isn't finalized, yet.

Must be in order before freegold officially takes off.

Ender said...

If anyone is interested, here is an old speech that might give a little context to what anon is saying above.

SatyaPranava said...

ender, maybe it's me, but my hyperbole/PR antennae were working a bit in overdrive reading that article.

is it even possible for centralization to lead to long-term liberty?

FOFOA said...


Re: Gold reserves: China needs to acquire more gold

I have a suspicion that Asia is not as forthcoming with the WGC as this article assumes. But the fact that these calculations are even being done bodes very well for Freegold!


Andrew said...

I caught this Glenn Beck episode. I love the:

"zomggg you're on record saying it's ONE-HUNDRED PERCENT going to be hyperinflation???!!?"

"...zhat is correct."

FOFOA said...

Haha... yea, I actually agree with Marc Faber on this!

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